人口流动、居民收入与城市房价——基于中国35个大中城市数据的检验
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摘要
在构建购房者效用函数和房地产市场均衡模型的基础上,选取2001—2016年中国内地35个大中城市的面板数据,分析人口流动、居民收入与城市房价的关系。结果表明:城市人口、人口流动率、居民收入对房价存在显著的促进作用,并且房价呈"螺旋式"上升态势。分区域看,东部地区城市居民收入对房价起着抑制作用,中部地区城市人口流动率和居民收入对房价的影响不显著,西部地区城市居民收入对房价的影响不显著。
Based on the construction of the buyer's utility function and the real estate market equilibrium model,the paper selects the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2001 to 2016,and empirically test the relationship between population mobility,residents' income and urban housing price. The results show that urban population,population mobility and residents' income have a significant role in promoting housing prices,and housing prices will show a"spiral"upward trend. From the perspective of subregion,the income of urban residents in eastern China plays a negative role in housing price. The influence of urban population mobility and residents' income on housing prices is not significant in central China.
Based on the construction of the buyer's utility function and the real estate market equilibrium model,the paper selects the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2001 to 2016,and empirically test the relationship between population mobility,residents' income and urban housing price. The results show that urban population,population mobility and residents' income have a significant role in promoting housing prices,and housing prices will show a"spiral"upward trend. From the perspective of subregion,the income of urban residents in eastern China plays a negative role in housing price. The influence of urban population mobility and residents' income on housing prices is not significant in central China.
引文
[1]李诗墨.人口流动对房价影响的实证研究[J].企业导报,2015(19):80-82.
[2] DEGEN K,FISCHER A M. Immigration and Swiss House Prices[J]. CEPR Discussion Papers,2009,23(4):44-62.
[3]徐建炜,徐奇渊,何帆.房价上涨背后的人口结构因素:国际经验与中国证据[J].世界经济,2012(1):24-42.
[4]郭慧秀,拓星星,贾菲,等.国内城市房价时空分异及其动力机制研究进展[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(2):58-64.
[5]张莉,何晶,马润泓.房价如何影响劳动力流动?[J].经济研究,2017(8):155-170.
[6] NORD M. Poor People on the Move:County-to-County Migration and the Spatial Concentration of Poverty[J]. Journal of Regional Science,1998,38(2):329-351.
[7]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(8):133-142.
[8]王芸.中国大中城市房价与工资变动关系的计量研究[J].湖北文理学院学报,2014,35(9):44-48.
[9]刘广平,陈立文,陈晨,等.城镇化、城乡收入差距与房价研究——一个调节效应模型的实证分析[J].软科学,2016,30(6):39-42.
[10]李勇刚.收入差距、房价水平与农村剩余劳动力转移——基于面板联立方程模型的经验分析[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2016,30(1):83-91.
[11]张绍良,李晶晶,公云龙.基于特征价格模型的城市住宅价格影响因素研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(4):80-83.
[12]薛建谱,王卫华.基于均衡模型的我国商品房价格影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2013(22):118-121.
[13]李继玲.房价波动影响因素研究——基于2005—2015年数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(9):30-37.
[14] ARELLANO M,BOND S. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297.
[15]孟庆斌,黄清华,张能鲲,等.城镇化、区域发展不均衡与房地产价格[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017(9):5-17.
[2] DEGEN K,FISCHER A M. Immigration and Swiss House Prices[J]. CEPR Discussion Papers,2009,23(4):44-62.
[3]徐建炜,徐奇渊,何帆.房价上涨背后的人口结构因素:国际经验与中国证据[J].世界经济,2012(1):24-42.
[4]郭慧秀,拓星星,贾菲,等.国内城市房价时空分异及其动力机制研究进展[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(2):58-64.
[5]张莉,何晶,马润泓.房价如何影响劳动力流动?[J].经济研究,2017(8):155-170.
[6] NORD M. Poor People on the Move:County-to-County Migration and the Spatial Concentration of Poverty[J]. Journal of Regional Science,1998,38(2):329-351.
[7]梁云芳,高铁梅.中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析[J].经济研究,2007(8):133-142.
[8]王芸.中国大中城市房价与工资变动关系的计量研究[J].湖北文理学院学报,2014,35(9):44-48.
[9]刘广平,陈立文,陈晨,等.城镇化、城乡收入差距与房价研究——一个调节效应模型的实证分析[J].软科学,2016,30(6):39-42.
[10]李勇刚.收入差距、房价水平与农村剩余劳动力转移——基于面板联立方程模型的经验分析[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2016,30(1):83-91.
[11]张绍良,李晶晶,公云龙.基于特征价格模型的城市住宅价格影响因素研究[J].地域研究与开发,2013,32(4):80-83.
[12]薛建谱,王卫华.基于均衡模型的我国商品房价格影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2013(22):118-121.
[13]李继玲.房价波动影响因素研究——基于2005—2015年数据的实证分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(9):30-37.
[14] ARELLANO M,BOND S. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297.
[15]孟庆斌,黄清华,张能鲲,等.城镇化、区域发展不均衡与房地产价格[J].经济理论与经济管理,2017(9):5-17.