技术积累、空间溢出与人口迁移
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摘要
创新不仅是经济高质量发展的驱动力,而且对人口迁移具有显著的吸引力。本文在"人口争夺战"的背景下,采用包含内生和外生交互效应的空间杜宾模型,经验分析三类专利技术积累对我国省际人口迁入的影响机制。实证结果表明:(1)发明专利技术积累对人口的吸引力十分显著,而质量较低的实用新型和外观设计专利技术积累则对人口迁入不具有积极作用。并且从空间交互效应来看,技术相近省份的发明类技术溢出能够提高本省技术水平并降低创新成本,增强创新生产能力,吸引人口迁入。(2)本地人口总量、工资水平、教育水平以及迁移网络均对人口迁入有着促进作用。(3)空间效应分析显示,发明专利技术积累通过直接效应和空间溢出效应两种途径对人口迁入产生正向影响,凸显高质量技术溢出对于中国省际人口竞争的重要作用。外观设计类技术积累虽然对本地人口迁入有着直接的促进作用,但其空间溢出效应却会阻碍人口的迁入。(4)异质性分析表明,教育和医疗等公共服务更好的地区以及市场化水平更高的地区,技术积累对人口的吸引力更强。(5)对比不同空间权重矩阵发现,技术在经济地理或技术距离上的溢出效果比单纯地理距离上的空间溢出效果更加明显,交通和信息技术的高速发展使得物理空间对技术溢出的限制逐渐弱化。根据分析结论,可能的政策启示有:(1)加强研发创新活动,增强技术积累,以技术进步提升工资水平和创造就业岗位,促进"人口扎根"。(2)增强教育、医疗等公共服务和完善市场环境的投入力度,提升公共服务供给质量,促进创新对高质量人才的吸引力。(3)提升地区文化、经济和社会的包容性与和谐性,优化迁入人口的社会网络环境,增强迁入人口的凝聚力和归属感。
Innovation is not only the driving force of high-quality economic development,but also has significant attraction for population migration. Under the background of 'population scramble battle',this paper analyzed the influencing mechanism of the accumulation of technology on interprovincial population migration in China with the spatial Dubin model,including endogenous and exogenous interaction effects. The empirical results showed that:(1)The technology accumulation of invention patents was very attractive to the population,while the technology accumulation of utility and design patents with relatively low relative quality did not have a positive effect on population migration. Furthermore from the perspective of spatial interaction,the technology spillover of invention in provinces with similar technology could improve the technological level of the province,which could reduce the cost of innovation,enhance the capacity of innovation production,and attract people to move in.(2)Total local population,wage,education and migration network all contributed to population migration.(3)The analysis of spatial effect showed that the technology accumulation of invention patents had a positive impact on population migration through direct effect and spatial spillover effect,highlighting the important effect of high-quality technology spillover on inter-provincial population competition in China. Although the accumulation of design technology had a direct effect on the immigration of the local population,its spatial spillover effect would hinder the immigration of the population.(4)Heterogeneity analysis showed that technology accumulation was more attractive to the population in areas with better public services,such as education and health care,and in areas with higher levels of marketization.(5)Comparing different spatial weight matrix,it is found that the spillover effect of technology on economic geography distance or technology distance was more obvious than the spillover effect on simple geographical distance. Due to the rapid development of traffic and information technology,the restriction of physical space on technology overflow gradually weakened. According to the analysis above,we drew following conclusions:(1) strengthening R&D and innovation activities,enhancing technology accumulation,raising wage and create job opportunities through technological progress,and promoting 'immigrant population to be rooted in local life;(2)strengthening the input of public services such as education and medical service and improving market environment,enhancing the quality of public service supply,and then promoting the attraction of innovation to high-quality talents;(3)promoting the inclusiveness and harmony of regional culture,economy and society,optimizing the social network environment of the immigrant population,and enhancing the cohesion and sense of belonging of the immigrant population.
Innovation is not only the driving force of high-quality economic development,but also has significant attraction for population migration. Under the background of 'population scramble battle',this paper analyzed the influencing mechanism of the accumulation of technology on interprovincial population migration in China with the spatial Dubin model,including endogenous and exogenous interaction effects. The empirical results showed that:(1)The technology accumulation of invention patents was very attractive to the population,while the technology accumulation of utility and design patents with relatively low relative quality did not have a positive effect on population migration. Furthermore from the perspective of spatial interaction,the technology spillover of invention in provinces with similar technology could improve the technological level of the province,which could reduce the cost of innovation,enhance the capacity of innovation production,and attract people to move in.(2)Total local population,wage,education and migration network all contributed to population migration.(3)The analysis of spatial effect showed that the technology accumulation of invention patents had a positive impact on population migration through direct effect and spatial spillover effect,highlighting the important effect of high-quality technology spillover on inter-provincial population competition in China. Although the accumulation of design technology had a direct effect on the immigration of the local population,its spatial spillover effect would hinder the immigration of the population.(4)Heterogeneity analysis showed that technology accumulation was more attractive to the population in areas with better public services,such as education and health care,and in areas with higher levels of marketization.(5)Comparing different spatial weight matrix,it is found that the spillover effect of technology on economic geography distance or technology distance was more obvious than the spillover effect on simple geographical distance. Due to the rapid development of traffic and information technology,the restriction of physical space on technology overflow gradually weakened. According to the analysis above,we drew following conclusions:(1) strengthening R&D and innovation activities,enhancing technology accumulation,raising wage and create job opportunities through technological progress,and promoting 'immigrant population to be rooted in local life;(2)strengthening the input of public services such as education and medical service and improving market environment,enhancing the quality of public service supply,and then promoting the attraction of innovation to high-quality talents;(3)promoting the inclusiveness and harmony of regional culture,economy and society,optimizing the social network environment of the immigrant population,and enhancing the cohesion and sense of belonging of the immigrant population.
引文
[1]万广华,范蓓蕾,陆铭.解析中国创新能力的不平等:基于回归的分解方法[J].世界经济,2010,33(2):3-14.
[2]LEWIS W A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour[J]. The Manchester School,1954,22(2):139-191.
[3]TODARO M P. A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries[J]. American economic review,1969,59:138-148.
[4]王文刚,孙桂平,张文忠,等.京津冀地区流动人口家庭化迁移的特征与影响机理[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(1):137-145.
[5]刘生龙.中国跨省人口迁移的影响因素分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(4):83-98.
[6]颜咏华,郭志仪.中国人口流动迁移对城市化进程影响的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):103-110.
[7]唐为,王媛.行政区划调整与人口城市化:来自撤县设区的经验证据[J].经济研究,2015(9):72-85.
[8]吴瑞君,朱宝树.中国人口的非均衡分布与“胡焕庸线”的稳定性[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):14-24.
[9]王桂新,潘泽瀚.中国人口迁移分布的顽健性与胡焕庸线[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):2-13.
[10]游士兵,任静茹,赵雨.我国人口老龄化加速发展对城市化发展速度的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):169-176.
[11]曾永明.中国省际人口迁移的地缘效应与驱动机制:男女有别吗?[J].人口研究,2017,41(5):40-51.
[12]王文刚,孙桂平,张文忠,等.京津冀地区流动人口家庭化迁移的特征与影响机理[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(1):137-145.
[13]周皓.中国人口迁移的家庭化趋势及影响因素分析[J].人口研究,2004,28(6):60-69.
[14]AGHION P,HOWITT P. A model of growth through creative destruction[J]. Econometrica,1992,60:323-351.
[15]ACEMOGELU D,AKCIGIT U. Intellectual property rights policy,competition and innovation[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association,2012,10(1):1-42.
[16]JONES C. Sources of U. S. economic growth in a world of ideas[J]. American economic review,2002,92(1):220-239.
[17]白重恩,钱震杰.劳动收入份额决定因素:来自中国省际面板数据的证据[J].世界经济,2010(12):3-27.
[18]龚刚,魏熙晔,杨先明,等.建设中国特色国家创新体系跨越中等收入陷阱[J].中国社会科学,2017(8):61-86.
[19]姚战琪,夏长杰.资本深化、技术进步对中国就业效应的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005(1):58-67.
[20]杨蕙馨,李春梅.中国信息产业技术进步对劳动力就业及工资差距的影响[J].中国工业经济,2013(1):51-63.
[21]LUCAS R. Life earnings and rural-urban migration[J]. Journal of political economy,2004,112(1):s29-s59.
[22]夏怡然,陆铭.城市间的“孟母三迁”——公共服务影响劳动力流向的经验研究[J].管理世界,2015(10):78-90.
[23]杨义武,林万龙,张莉琴.地方公共品供给与人口迁移——来自地级及以上城市的经验证据[J].中国人口科学,2017(2):93-103,128.
[24]马红旗,陈仲常.我国省际人口流动的特征——基于全国第六次人口普查数据[J].人口研究,2012,36(6):87-99.
[25]蒲英霞,韩洪凌,葛莹,等.中国省际人口迁移的多边效应机制分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):205-216.
[26]张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗——兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学,2012(3):60-77,206.
[27]何天祥.环长株潭城市群技术进步及空间溢出效应研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):109-115.
[28]范欣,宋冬林,赵新宇.基础设施建设打破了国内市场分割吗?[J].经济研究,2017,52(2):20-34.
[29]ARNOLD M,JAMES L S,ROBERT K. Pace:introduction to spatial econometrics[J]. Statistical papers,2011,52(2):493-494.
[30]PORTER M E,STERN S. Measuring the ‘ideas’ production function:evidence from international patent output[R]. NBER working papers,2000.
[31]PESSOA A.‘Ideas’ driven growth:the OECD evidence[J].Portuguese economic journal,2005,4(1):46-67.
[32]苏屹,李柏洲,喻登科.区域创新系统知识存量的测度与公平性研究[J].中国软科学,2012(5):157-174.
[33]丁·保罗·埃尔霍斯特,空间计量经济学:从横截面数据到空间面板[M].肖光恩,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2015.
[34]周煊,程立茹,王皓.技术创新水平越高企业财务绩效越好吗?——基于16年中国制药上市公司专利申请数据的实证研究[J].金融研究,2012(8):166-179.
[35]李延军,史笑迎,李海月.京津冀区域金融集聚对经济增长的空间溢出效应研究[J].经济与管理,2018,32(1):21-26.
[2]LEWIS W A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour[J]. The Manchester School,1954,22(2):139-191.
[3]TODARO M P. A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries[J]. American economic review,1969,59:138-148.
[4]王文刚,孙桂平,张文忠,等.京津冀地区流动人口家庭化迁移的特征与影响机理[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(1):137-145.
[5]刘生龙.中国跨省人口迁移的影响因素分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(4):83-98.
[6]颜咏华,郭志仪.中国人口流动迁移对城市化进程影响的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):103-110.
[7]唐为,王媛.行政区划调整与人口城市化:来自撤县设区的经验证据[J].经济研究,2015(9):72-85.
[8]吴瑞君,朱宝树.中国人口的非均衡分布与“胡焕庸线”的稳定性[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):14-24.
[9]王桂新,潘泽瀚.中国人口迁移分布的顽健性与胡焕庸线[J].中国人口科学,2016(1):2-13.
[10]游士兵,任静茹,赵雨.我国人口老龄化加速发展对城市化发展速度的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(6):169-176.
[11]曾永明.中国省际人口迁移的地缘效应与驱动机制:男女有别吗?[J].人口研究,2017,41(5):40-51.
[12]王文刚,孙桂平,张文忠,等.京津冀地区流动人口家庭化迁移的特征与影响机理[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(1):137-145.
[13]周皓.中国人口迁移的家庭化趋势及影响因素分析[J].人口研究,2004,28(6):60-69.
[14]AGHION P,HOWITT P. A model of growth through creative destruction[J]. Econometrica,1992,60:323-351.
[15]ACEMOGELU D,AKCIGIT U. Intellectual property rights policy,competition and innovation[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association,2012,10(1):1-42.
[16]JONES C. Sources of U. S. economic growth in a world of ideas[J]. American economic review,2002,92(1):220-239.
[17]白重恩,钱震杰.劳动收入份额决定因素:来自中国省际面板数据的证据[J].世界经济,2010(12):3-27.
[18]龚刚,魏熙晔,杨先明,等.建设中国特色国家创新体系跨越中等收入陷阱[J].中国社会科学,2017(8):61-86.
[19]姚战琪,夏长杰.资本深化、技术进步对中国就业效应的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005(1):58-67.
[20]杨蕙馨,李春梅.中国信息产业技术进步对劳动力就业及工资差距的影响[J].中国工业经济,2013(1):51-63.
[21]LUCAS R. Life earnings and rural-urban migration[J]. Journal of political economy,2004,112(1):s29-s59.
[22]夏怡然,陆铭.城市间的“孟母三迁”——公共服务影响劳动力流向的经验研究[J].管理世界,2015(10):78-90.
[23]杨义武,林万龙,张莉琴.地方公共品供给与人口迁移——来自地级及以上城市的经验证据[J].中国人口科学,2017(2):93-103,128.
[24]马红旗,陈仲常.我国省际人口流动的特征——基于全国第六次人口普查数据[J].人口研究,2012,36(6):87-99.
[25]蒲英霞,韩洪凌,葛莹,等.中国省际人口迁移的多边效应机制分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):205-216.
[26]张学良.中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗——兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应[J].中国社会科学,2012(3):60-77,206.
[27]何天祥.环长株潭城市群技术进步及空间溢出效应研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):109-115.
[28]范欣,宋冬林,赵新宇.基础设施建设打破了国内市场分割吗?[J].经济研究,2017,52(2):20-34.
[29]ARNOLD M,JAMES L S,ROBERT K. Pace:introduction to spatial econometrics[J]. Statistical papers,2011,52(2):493-494.
[30]PORTER M E,STERN S. Measuring the ‘ideas’ production function:evidence from international patent output[R]. NBER working papers,2000.
[31]PESSOA A.‘Ideas’ driven growth:the OECD evidence[J].Portuguese economic journal,2005,4(1):46-67.
[32]苏屹,李柏洲,喻登科.区域创新系统知识存量的测度与公平性研究[J].中国软科学,2012(5):157-174.
[33]丁·保罗·埃尔霍斯特,空间计量经济学:从横截面数据到空间面板[M].肖光恩,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2015.
[34]周煊,程立茹,王皓.技术创新水平越高企业财务绩效越好吗?——基于16年中国制药上市公司专利申请数据的实证研究[J].金融研究,2012(8):166-179.
[35]李延军,史笑迎,李海月.京津冀区域金融集聚对经济增长的空间溢出效应研究[J].经济与管理,2018,32(1):21-26.