中国城镇居民用水需求研究
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摘要
中国超过60%的城市不同程度上存在水资源短缺问题,其中约一半的缺水城市严重缺水。城市水资源供给将成为制约部分城市人口承载力的重要因素。本文基于11万户中国城镇家庭调查(UHS)的微观数据对城镇居民家庭的用水需求进行实证分析。主要的研究发现如下:①城镇居民家庭用水的价格弹性在-0. 4～-0. 5之间,收入弹性大约为0. 2～0. 3之间,为缺乏价格弹性和收入弹性,意味着按照"拉姆齐"原理,开征水资源税是具有效率的。价格弹性的绝对值在总体上高于收入弹性,也意味着只要城镇用水价格的平均上调幅度不低于城镇居民家庭实际收入增长幅度,城市居民的平均直接用水量将不会提高。②城镇居民生活方式的转变也是家庭水消费的重要影响因素,外出就餐和服务类支出比重显著降低家庭的直接用水量,家庭外出就餐每增加1%,会减少直接用水0. 3%左右,而家庭购买服务会减少直接用水0. 2～0. 3个百分点,意味着存在"虚拟水"转移现象。③异质性分析方面,价格弹性和收入弹性在不同的收入阶层之间并无统计上的显著差异,这意味着不同收入家庭用水的不平等性不受收入弹性值的差异影响,因此旨在促进家庭用水节约的政策设计上,可以不把家庭收入作为政策设定的参考变量。④对上述结果进行了稳定性检验,通过逐步缩小样本范围,尽量确保进入回归的样本都是单一水价以及在当年未经历水价调整。其结果表明本文主要实证结果稳健可靠。本文的实证研究对未来城市居民家庭用水模式进行了定量评估,为未来城市水资源管理方面的政策制定提供了微观层面的理论依据。
More than 60% of cities in China face water shortages to varying degrees,and around half of these cities are hit by severe water shortage. Water resource supply has become one important restriction factor of population carrying capacity in parts of Chinese cities. Based on extensive data of 110,000 households collected by the Chinese Urban Household Surveys( UHS),this research empirically analyzes the demand of water for urban households. The main findings are as follows: First,the price elasticity of urban household water consumption( between-0. 4 and-0. 5) and the income elasticity( between 0. 2 and 0. 3) are both at a relatively low level,which means that,according to the principle of Ramsey,levying water tax will be efficient. The absolute value of price elasticity is higher than that of income elasticity,and this implies that as long as the average increase in urban water price is higher than the actual income growth of urban households,the average direct water consumption of urban residents will not increase. Second,the lifestyle transformation for urban residents is also a significant factor in affecting the household water consumption. The amount of eating out and the proportion of expenditures on services influence the water consumption of households. For instance,every 1%increase in the amount of eating out will reduce 0. 3% in water consumption directly,and that of household service expenditure will reduce 0. 2% ～ 0. 3% in water consumption directly. This reveals the presence of‘virtual water'transfer effect. Third,in the analysis of heterogeneity,there is no statistically significant difference between price elasticity and income elasticity for different income classes.This demonstrates that the inequality of water consumption for different income households is not affected by the income elasticity,and,therefore,household income may not be considered as a reference variable for designing the policy of promoting water conservation.Lastly,by gradually reducing the sample size and thus largely ensuring that the regressed samples are all under uniform pricing and have not experienced water price adjustment in that year,the robustness of these empirical results are tested and verified. More broadly,this research provides a quantitative evaluation of water consumption for urban households in the future,and also builds a micro-level theoretical basis for future policies of urban water management.
More than 60% of cities in China face water shortages to varying degrees,and around half of these cities are hit by severe water shortage. Water resource supply has become one important restriction factor of population carrying capacity in parts of Chinese cities. Based on extensive data of 110,000 households collected by the Chinese Urban Household Surveys( UHS),this research empirically analyzes the demand of water for urban households. The main findings are as follows: First,the price elasticity of urban household water consumption( between-0. 4 and-0. 5) and the income elasticity( between 0. 2 and 0. 3) are both at a relatively low level,which means that,according to the principle of Ramsey,levying water tax will be efficient. The absolute value of price elasticity is higher than that of income elasticity,and this implies that as long as the average increase in urban water price is higher than the actual income growth of urban households,the average direct water consumption of urban residents will not increase. Second,the lifestyle transformation for urban residents is also a significant factor in affecting the household water consumption. The amount of eating out and the proportion of expenditures on services influence the water consumption of households. For instance,every 1%increase in the amount of eating out will reduce 0. 3% in water consumption directly,and that of household service expenditure will reduce 0. 2% ～ 0. 3% in water consumption directly. This reveals the presence of‘virtual water'transfer effect. Third,in the analysis of heterogeneity,there is no statistically significant difference between price elasticity and income elasticity for different income classes.This demonstrates that the inequality of water consumption for different income households is not affected by the income elasticity,and,therefore,household income may not be considered as a reference variable for designing the policy of promoting water conservation.Lastly,by gradually reducing the sample size and thus largely ensuring that the regressed samples are all under uniform pricing and have not experienced water price adjustment in that year,the robustness of these empirical results are tested and verified. More broadly,this research provides a quantitative evaluation of water consumption for urban households in the future,and also builds a micro-level theoretical basis for future policies of urban water management.
引文
[1]ARBUES F,GARCIA-VALINNAS M ,MARTINEZ-ESPINNEIRAR.Estimation of residential water demand:a state-of-the-art review[J].The journal of socio-economics,2003,32(1):81-102.
[2]WORTHINGTON A C,HOFFMAN M.An empirical survey of residential water demand modelling[J].Journal of economic surveys,2008,22(5):842-871.
[3]NAUGES C,WHITTINGTON D.Estimation of water demand in developing countries:an overview[J].The World Bank research observer,2010,25(2):263-294.
[4]ACHARYA G,BARBIER E.Using domestic water analysis to value groundwater recharge in the Hadejia‘Jama’are Floodplain,Northern Nigeria[J].American journal of agricultural economics,2002,84(2):415-426.
[5]CHEESMAN J,BENNETT J,SON T V H.Estimating household water demand using revealed and contingent behaviors:evidence from Vietnam[J].Water resources research,2008,44(11):W11428.
[6]COULIBALY L,JAKUS P M,KEITH J E.Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water[J].Water resources research,2014,50(7):6002-6014.
[7]NIESWIADOMY M L.Estimating urban residential water demand:effects of price structure,conservation,and education[J].Water resources research,1992,28(3):609-615.
[8]GARCIA S,REYNAUD A.Estimating the benefits of efficient water pricing in France[J].Resource and energy economics,2004,26(1):1-25.
[9]RUIJS A,ZIMMERMANN A,VAN DEN BERG M.Demand and distributional effects of water pricing policies[J].Ecological economics,2008,66(2):506-516.
[10]NATARAJS,HANEMANN W M.Does marginal price matter?a regression discontinuity approach to estimating water demand[J].Journal of environmental economics and management,2011,61(2):198-212.
[11]NIESWIADOMY M L,MOLINA D J.A note on price perception in water demand models[J].Land economics,1991,67(3):352-359.
[12]FRONDEL M,MESSNER M.Price perception and residential water demand:evidence from a German household panel[C]//16th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in Gothenburg.2008:25-28.
[13]STRAND J,WALKER I.Water markets and demand in Central American cities[J].Environment and development economics,2005,10(3):313-335.
[14]BINET M E,CARLEVARO F,Paul M.Estimation of residential water demand with imperfect price perception[J].Environmental and resource economics,2014,59(4):561-581.
[15]WICHMAN C J.Perceived price in residential water demand:Evidence from a natural experiment[J].Journal of economic behavior&organization,2014,107:308-323.
[16]OLMSTEAD S M,HANEMANN W M,STAVINS R N.Water demand under alternative price structures[J].Journal of environmental economics and management,2007,54(2):181-198.
[17]BAERENKLAU K A,SCHWABE K A,DINAR A.The residential water demand effect of increasing block rate water budgets[J].Land economics,2014,90(4):683-699.
[18]ESPEY M,ESPEY J,SHAW W D.Price elasticity of residential demand for water:a meta-analysis[J].Water resources research,1997,33(6):1369-1374.
[19]DALHUISEN J M,FLORAX R J G M,DE GROOT H L F,et al.Price and income elasticities of residential water demand:a metaanalysis[J].Land economics,2003,79(2):292-308.
[20]REYNAUD A,RENZETTI S,VILLENEUVE M.Residential water demand with endogenous pricing:the Canadian case[J].Water resources research,2005,41(11):W11409.
[21]NIESWIADOMY M L,MOLINA D J.Comparing residential water demand estimates under decreasing and increasing block rates using household data[J].Land economics,1989,65(3):280-289.
[22]RENWICK M E,GREEN R D.Do residential water demand side management policies measure up?an analysis of eight California water agencies[J].Journal of environmental economics and management,2000,40(1):37-55.
[23]MARTINS R,FORTUNATO A.Residential water demand under block rates:a Portuguese case study[J].Water policy,2007,9(2):217-230.
[24]ZHANG B,FANG K H,BAERENKLAU K A.Have Chinese water pricing reforms reduced urban residential water demand?[J].Water resources research,2017,53(6):5057-5069.
[25]BILLINGS R B.Specification of block rate price variables in demand models[J].Land economics,1982,58(3):386-394.
[26]AGTHE D E,BILLINGS R B.Water-price effect on residential and apartment low-flow fixtures[J].Journal of water resources planning and management,1996,122(1):20-23.
[27]MARTINEZ-ESPINEIRA R.Estimating water demand under increasing-block tariffs using aggregate data and proportions of users per block[J].Environmental and resource economics,2003,26(1):5-23.
[28]MARTINEZ-ESPINEIRA R,NAUGES C.Is all domestic water consumption sensitive to price control?[J].Applied economics,2004,36(15):1697-1703.
[29]TAYLOR L D.The demand for electricity:a survey[J].Bell journal of economics,1975,6(1):74-110.
[30]NORDIN J A.A proposed modification of Taylor’s demand analysis:comment[J].Bell journal of economics,1976,7(2):719-721.
[31]AGTHE D E,BILLINGS R B.Dynamic models of residential water demand[J].Water resources research,1980,16(3):476-480.
[32]FOSTER H S,BEATTIE B R.On the specification of price in studies of consumer demand under block price scheduling[J].Land economics,1981,57(4):624-629.
[33]CHICOINE D L,DELLER S C,RAMAMURTHY G.Water demand estimation under block rate pricing:a simultaneous equation approach[J].Water resources research,1986,22(6):859-863.
[34]郑新业,李芳华,李夕璐,等.水价提升是有效的政策工具吗?[J].管理世界,2012(4):47-59.
[35]ZHANG H H,BROWN D F.Understanding urban residential water use in Beijing and Tianjin,China[J].Habitat international,2005,29(3):469-491.
[36]胡峰.城市居民生活用水需求影响因素研究——以南通市为例[D].杭州:浙江大学,2006.
[37]陈晓光,徐晋涛,季永杰.华北地区城市居民用水需求影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2007(2):275-280.
[38]李眺.我国城市供水需求侧管理与水价体系研究[J].中国工业经济,2007(2):43-51.
[39]马训舟,张世秋,穆泉.二次近似完美需求体系的应用研究——以北京市城市居民用水需求弹性分析为例[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2012,(3):483-490.
[40]马训舟,张世秋.成都城市居民累进阶梯式水价结构与政策效果分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(11):168-175.
[41]廖显春,夏恩龙,王自锋.阶梯水价对城市居民用水量及低收入家庭福利的影响[J].资源科学,2016(10):1935-1947.
[42]BARTCZAK A,KOPANSKA A,RACZKA J.Residential water demand in a transition economy:evidence from Poland[J].Water science and technology:water supply,2009,9(5):509-516.
[43]SCHLEICH J,HILLENBRAND T.Determinants of residential water demand in Germany[J].Ecological economics,2009,68(6):1756-1769.
[44]MARCH H,SAURI D.The suburbanization of water scarcity in the Barcelona metropolitan region:sociodemographic and urban changes influencing domestic water consumption[J].The professional geographer,2010,62(1):32-45.
[45]MARCH H,PERARNAU J,SAURI D.Exploring the links between immigration,ageing and domestic water consumption:the case of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona[J].Regional studies,2012,46(2):229-244.
[46]ROMANO G,SALVATI N,GUERRINI A.An empirical analysis of the determinants of water demand in Italy[J].Journal of cleaner production,2016,130:74-81.
[47]HOGLUND L.Household demand for water in Sweden with implications of a potential tax on water use[J].Water resources research,1999,35(12):3853-3863.
[48]LAM S P.Predicting intention to save water:theory of planned behavior,response efficacy,vulnerability,and perceived efficiency of alternative solutions[J].Journal of applied social psychology,2006,36(11):2803-2824.
[49]MARTINEZ-ESPINEIRA R,GARCIA-VALINAS M A.Adopting versus adapting:adoption of water-saving technology versus water conservation habits in Spain[J].International journal of water resources development,2013,29(3):400-414.
[50]HAJISPYROU S,KOUNDOURI P,Pashardes P.Household demand and welfare:implications of water pricing in Cyprus[J].Environment and development economics,2002,7(4):659-685.
[51]沈阳市物价局解疑阶梯水价方案拟将水价分三档[EB/OL].(2012-08-07)[2018-02-06].http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/dfjj/20120807/160512782294.shtml.
[52]CHENOWETH J.Minimum water requirement for social and economic development[J].Desalination,2008,229(1-3):245-256.
[53]AGTHE D E,BILLINGS R B.Equity,price elasticity,and household income under increasing block rates for water[J].American journal of economics and sociology,1987,46(3):273-286.
[54]THOMAS J F,SYME G J.Estimating residential price elasticity of demand for water:a contingent valuation approach[J].Water resources research,1988,24(11):1847-1857.
[55]RENWICK M E,ARCHIBALD S O.Demand side management policies for residential water use:who bears the conservation burden?[J].Land economics,1997,73(3):343-359.
[2]WORTHINGTON A C,HOFFMAN M.An empirical survey of residential water demand modelling[J].Journal of economic surveys,2008,22(5):842-871.
[3]NAUGES C,WHITTINGTON D.Estimation of water demand in developing countries:an overview[J].The World Bank research observer,2010,25(2):263-294.
[4]ACHARYA G,BARBIER E.Using domestic water analysis to value groundwater recharge in the Hadejia‘Jama’are Floodplain,Northern Nigeria[J].American journal of agricultural economics,2002,84(2):415-426.
[5]CHEESMAN J,BENNETT J,SON T V H.Estimating household water demand using revealed and contingent behaviors:evidence from Vietnam[J].Water resources research,2008,44(11):W11428.
[6]COULIBALY L,JAKUS P M,KEITH J E.Modeling water demand when households have multiple sources of water[J].Water resources research,2014,50(7):6002-6014.
[7]NIESWIADOMY M L.Estimating urban residential water demand:effects of price structure,conservation,and education[J].Water resources research,1992,28(3):609-615.
[8]GARCIA S,REYNAUD A.Estimating the benefits of efficient water pricing in France[J].Resource and energy economics,2004,26(1):1-25.
[9]RUIJS A,ZIMMERMANN A,VAN DEN BERG M.Demand and distributional effects of water pricing policies[J].Ecological economics,2008,66(2):506-516.
[10]NATARAJS,HANEMANN W M.Does marginal price matter?a regression discontinuity approach to estimating water demand[J].Journal of environmental economics and management,2011,61(2):198-212.
[11]NIESWIADOMY M L,MOLINA D J.A note on price perception in water demand models[J].Land economics,1991,67(3):352-359.
[12]FRONDEL M,MESSNER M.Price perception and residential water demand:evidence from a German household panel[C]//16th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in Gothenburg.2008:25-28.
[13]STRAND J,WALKER I.Water markets and demand in Central American cities[J].Environment and development economics,2005,10(3):313-335.
[14]BINET M E,CARLEVARO F,Paul M.Estimation of residential water demand with imperfect price perception[J].Environmental and resource economics,2014,59(4):561-581.
[15]WICHMAN C J.Perceived price in residential water demand:Evidence from a natural experiment[J].Journal of economic behavior&organization,2014,107:308-323.
[16]OLMSTEAD S M,HANEMANN W M,STAVINS R N.Water demand under alternative price structures[J].Journal of environmental economics and management,2007,54(2):181-198.
[17]BAERENKLAU K A,SCHWABE K A,DINAR A.The residential water demand effect of increasing block rate water budgets[J].Land economics,2014,90(4):683-699.
[18]ESPEY M,ESPEY J,SHAW W D.Price elasticity of residential demand for water:a meta-analysis[J].Water resources research,1997,33(6):1369-1374.
[19]DALHUISEN J M,FLORAX R J G M,DE GROOT H L F,et al.Price and income elasticities of residential water demand:a metaanalysis[J].Land economics,2003,79(2):292-308.
[20]REYNAUD A,RENZETTI S,VILLENEUVE M.Residential water demand with endogenous pricing:the Canadian case[J].Water resources research,2005,41(11):W11409.
[21]NIESWIADOMY M L,MOLINA D J.Comparing residential water demand estimates under decreasing and increasing block rates using household data[J].Land economics,1989,65(3):280-289.
[22]RENWICK M E,GREEN R D.Do residential water demand side management policies measure up?an analysis of eight California water agencies[J].Journal of environmental economics and management,2000,40(1):37-55.
[23]MARTINS R,FORTUNATO A.Residential water demand under block rates:a Portuguese case study[J].Water policy,2007,9(2):217-230.
[24]ZHANG B,FANG K H,BAERENKLAU K A.Have Chinese water pricing reforms reduced urban residential water demand?[J].Water resources research,2017,53(6):5057-5069.
[25]BILLINGS R B.Specification of block rate price variables in demand models[J].Land economics,1982,58(3):386-394.
[26]AGTHE D E,BILLINGS R B.Water-price effect on residential and apartment low-flow fixtures[J].Journal of water resources planning and management,1996,122(1):20-23.
[27]MARTINEZ-ESPINEIRA R.Estimating water demand under increasing-block tariffs using aggregate data and proportions of users per block[J].Environmental and resource economics,2003,26(1):5-23.
[28]MARTINEZ-ESPINEIRA R,NAUGES C.Is all domestic water consumption sensitive to price control?[J].Applied economics,2004,36(15):1697-1703.
[29]TAYLOR L D.The demand for electricity:a survey[J].Bell journal of economics,1975,6(1):74-110.
[30]NORDIN J A.A proposed modification of Taylor’s demand analysis:comment[J].Bell journal of economics,1976,7(2):719-721.
[31]AGTHE D E,BILLINGS R B.Dynamic models of residential water demand[J].Water resources research,1980,16(3):476-480.
[32]FOSTER H S,BEATTIE B R.On the specification of price in studies of consumer demand under block price scheduling[J].Land economics,1981,57(4):624-629.
[33]CHICOINE D L,DELLER S C,RAMAMURTHY G.Water demand estimation under block rate pricing:a simultaneous equation approach[J].Water resources research,1986,22(6):859-863.
[34]郑新业,李芳华,李夕璐,等.水价提升是有效的政策工具吗?[J].管理世界,2012(4):47-59.
[35]ZHANG H H,BROWN D F.Understanding urban residential water use in Beijing and Tianjin,China[J].Habitat international,2005,29(3):469-491.
[36]胡峰.城市居民生活用水需求影响因素研究——以南通市为例[D].杭州:浙江大学,2006.
[37]陈晓光,徐晋涛,季永杰.华北地区城市居民用水需求影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2007(2):275-280.
[38]李眺.我国城市供水需求侧管理与水价体系研究[J].中国工业经济,2007(2):43-51.
[39]马训舟,张世秋,穆泉.二次近似完美需求体系的应用研究——以北京市城市居民用水需求弹性分析为例[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2012,(3):483-490.
[40]马训舟,张世秋.成都城市居民累进阶梯式水价结构与政策效果分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(11):168-175.
[41]廖显春,夏恩龙,王自锋.阶梯水价对城市居民用水量及低收入家庭福利的影响[J].资源科学,2016(10):1935-1947.
[42]BARTCZAK A,KOPANSKA A,RACZKA J.Residential water demand in a transition economy:evidence from Poland[J].Water science and technology:water supply,2009,9(5):509-516.
[43]SCHLEICH J,HILLENBRAND T.Determinants of residential water demand in Germany[J].Ecological economics,2009,68(6):1756-1769.
[44]MARCH H,SAURI D.The suburbanization of water scarcity in the Barcelona metropolitan region:sociodemographic and urban changes influencing domestic water consumption[J].The professional geographer,2010,62(1):32-45.
[45]MARCH H,PERARNAU J,SAURI D.Exploring the links between immigration,ageing and domestic water consumption:the case of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona[J].Regional studies,2012,46(2):229-244.
[46]ROMANO G,SALVATI N,GUERRINI A.An empirical analysis of the determinants of water demand in Italy[J].Journal of cleaner production,2016,130:74-81.
[47]HOGLUND L.Household demand for water in Sweden with implications of a potential tax on water use[J].Water resources research,1999,35(12):3853-3863.
[48]LAM S P.Predicting intention to save water:theory of planned behavior,response efficacy,vulnerability,and perceived efficiency of alternative solutions[J].Journal of applied social psychology,2006,36(11):2803-2824.
[49]MARTINEZ-ESPINEIRA R,GARCIA-VALINAS M A.Adopting versus adapting:adoption of water-saving technology versus water conservation habits in Spain[J].International journal of water resources development,2013,29(3):400-414.
[50]HAJISPYROU S,KOUNDOURI P,Pashardes P.Household demand and welfare:implications of water pricing in Cyprus[J].Environment and development economics,2002,7(4):659-685.
[51]沈阳市物价局解疑阶梯水价方案拟将水价分三档[EB/OL].(2012-08-07)[2018-02-06].http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/dfjj/20120807/160512782294.shtml.
[52]CHENOWETH J.Minimum water requirement for social and economic development[J].Desalination,2008,229(1-3):245-256.
[53]AGTHE D E,BILLINGS R B.Equity,price elasticity,and household income under increasing block rates for water[J].American journal of economics and sociology,1987,46(3):273-286.
[54]THOMAS J F,SYME G J.Estimating residential price elasticity of demand for water:a contingent valuation approach[J].Water resources research,1988,24(11):1847-1857.
[55]RENWICK M E,ARCHIBALD S O.Demand side management policies for residential water use:who bears the conservation burden?[J].Land economics,1997,73(3):343-359.