环境规制与就业真的能实现“双重红利”吗?——基于我国“两控区”政策的实证研究
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摘要
为了探讨严格的环境规制政策能否实现环保与就业的双赢,以"两控区"的实施作为环境规制强度变化的政策冲击,通过构建1994年到2010年286个地级市的面板数据集,采用双重差分法分析环境规制强度的增强对就业的影响。研究发现:从平均意义上来看,环境规制政策可以实现治污与就业的双赢。但环境规制对就业的影响除了在时间、空间和行业间具有较强的异质性之外,在酸雨控制区和二氧化硫控制区之间也存在显著的差别。其中,环境规制在酸雨控制区主要表现为对就业的促进,而在二氧化硫控制区则主要表现为对就业的挤出。
In order to discuss whether the strict environmental regulation policy can achieve a win-win situation for environmental protection and employment,this paper took the implementation of "two control zones"as the policy impact of changes in environmental regulation intensity,by building panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities from 1994 to 2010 and using the difference-in-differences method to analyze the impact of the increase in the intensity of environmental regulation on employment. The study found that,on average,environmental regulation policies can achieve a win-win situation between pollution control and employment. However,in addition to the strong heterogeneity among time,space and industry,the impact of environmental regulation on employment also had significant difference between the acid rain control zone and the sulfur dioxide control zone. Among them,the environmental regulation in the acid rain control area was mainly manifested as the promotion of employment,while in the sulfur dioxide control area was mainly manifested as the crowding out of employment.
In order to discuss whether the strict environmental regulation policy can achieve a win-win situation for environmental protection and employment,this paper took the implementation of "two control zones"as the policy impact of changes in environmental regulation intensity,by building panel data of 286 prefecture-level cities from 1994 to 2010 and using the difference-in-differences method to analyze the impact of the increase in the intensity of environmental regulation on employment. The study found that,on average,environmental regulation policies can achieve a win-win situation between pollution control and employment. However,in addition to the strong heterogeneity among time,space and industry,the impact of environmental regulation on employment also had significant difference between the acid rain control zone and the sulfur dioxide control zone. Among them,the environmental regulation in the acid rain control area was mainly manifested as the promotion of employment,while in the sulfur dioxide control area was mainly manifested as the crowding out of employment.
引文
[1]LIU M,SHADBEGIAN R,ZHANG B.Does environmental regulation affect labor demand in China?Evidence from the textile printing and dyeing industry[J].Journal of environmental economics&management,2017,86:277-294.
[2]SONG T,ZHENG T,TONG L.An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China:a panel cointegration approach[J].China economic review,2008,19(3):381-392.
[3]高世楫,王海芹,李维明.改革开放40年生态文明体制改革历程与取向观察[J].改革,2018(8):49-63.
[4]GOODSTEIN E.Jobs and the environment:an overview[J].Environmental management,1996,20(3):313-321.
[5]CURTIS E M.Who loses under power plant cap-and-trade programs?[R].NBER working paper,2014,NO.20808.
[6]HENDERSON V.The impact of air quality regulation on industrial location[J].Annales déconomie et de statistique,1997,45(45):123-137.
[7]GREENSTONE M.The impacts of environmental regulations on industrial activity:evidence from the 1970 and 1977clean air act amendments and the census of manufactures[J].Journal of political economy,2002,110(6):1175-1219.
[8]陆旸.中国的绿色政策与就业:存在双重红利吗?[J].经济研究,2011(7):42-54.
[9]BEZDEK R H,WENDLING R M,DIPERNA P.Environmental protection,the economy,and jobs:national and regional analyses[J].Journal of environmental management,2008,86(1):63-79.
[10]IILS.World of work report 2009:the global jobs crisis and beyond[R].International Institute for Labor Studies,2009.
[11]陈媛媛.行业环境管制对就业影响的经验研究:基于25个工业行业的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2011(3):67-73.
[12]BELOVA A,GRAY W B,LINN J,et al.Environmental regulation and industry employment:a reassessment[R].USCensus Bureau Center for Economic studies paper,2013,NO.CES-WP-13-26.
[13]GRAY W B,SHADBEGIAN R J,WANG C,et al.Do EPA regulations affect labor demand?Evidence from the pulp and paper industry[J].Journal of environmental economics&management,2014,68(1):188-202.
[14]闫文娟,郭树龙,史亚东.环境规制、产业结构升级与就业效应:线性还是非线性?[J].经济科学,2012(6):23-32.
[15]王勇,施美程,李建民.环境规制对就业的影响---基于中国工业行业面板数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2013(3):54-64.
[16]李梦洁,杜威剑.环境规制与就业的双重红利适用于中国现阶段吗?---基于省际面板数据的经验分析[J].经济科学,2014(4):14-26.
[17]李珊珊.环境规制对异质性劳动力就业的影响---基于省级动态面板数据的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(8):135-143.
[18]秦楠,刘李华,孙早.环境规制对就业的影响研究---基于中国工业行业异质性的视角[J].经济评论,2018(1):106-119.
[19]KAHN M E,MANSUR E T.Do local energy prices and regulation affect the geographic concentration of employment?[J].Journal of public economics,2013,101(1):105-114.
[20]WALKER W R.Environmental regulation and labor reallocation:evidence from the Clean Air Act[J].American economic review,2011,101(3):442-447.
[21]孙文远,杨琴.环境规制对就业的影响---基于我国“两控区”政策的实证研究[J].审计与经济研究,2017(5):96-107.
[22]CAI X,LU Y,WU M,et al.Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment?Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China[J].Journal of development economics,2016,123:73-85.
[23]张志强.环境规制提高了中国城市环境质量吗?---基于“拟自然实验”的证据[J].产业经济研究,2017(3):69-80.
[24]史贝贝,冯晨,张妍,等.环境规制红利的边际递增效应[J].中国工业经济,2017(12):40-58.
[25]盛丹,张慧玲.环境管制与我国的出口产品质量升级---基于两控区政策的考察[J].财贸经济,2017(8):80-97.
[26]SMULDERS S,GRADUS R.Pollution abatement and long-term growth[J].European journal of political economy,1996,12(3):505-532.
[27]COLE M A,ELLIOTT R J R,WU S.Industrial activity and the environment in China:an industry-level analysis[J].China economic review,2008,19(3):393-408.
[28]YANASE A.Impatience,pollution,and indeterminacy[J].Journal of economic dynamics&control,2011,35(10):1789-1799.
[29]任栋.调查失业率与登记失业率之差异辨析[J].中国人口科学,2013(2):42-48.
[30]LI P,LU Y,WANG J.Does flattening government improve economic performance?Evidence from China[J].Journal of development economics,2016,123:18-37.
[31]ANDREONI J,LEVINSON A.The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve[J].Journal of public economics,2001,80(2):269-286.
[32]滕瑜,李天祥,于之倩.中国就业变化的因素与潜力分析[J].中国软科学,2016(7):33-42.
[33]毛日昇.出口、外商直接投资与中国制造业就业[J].经济研究,2009(11):105-117.
[34]张抗私,刘翠花,丁述磊.正规就业与非正规就业工资差异研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(1):83-94.
[35]罗国勋.经济增长与劳动生产率、产业结构及就业结构的变动[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000(3):26-28.
[36]刘瑞明,亢延锟,黄维乔.就业市场扭曲、人力资本积累与阶层分化[J].经济学动态,2017(8):74-87.
[37]MARGLIN S A,SCHOR J B.The golden age of capitalism:reinterpreting the postwar experience[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1992,102:639.
[38]张子楠,王高望,赵晓军.工资刚性与国企效率损失[J].经济科学,2015(5):44-57.
[39]杨扬,余壮雄,王美今.FDI对中国就业效应的检验[J].经济学家,2009(5):5-14.
[40]单良,张涛.中国产业结构与就业结构协调性时空演变研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(2):39-49.
[41]郑新业,王晗,赵益卓.“省直管县”能促进经济增长吗?---双重差分方法[J].管理世界,2011(8):34-44.
[42]彭文斌,刘友金.我国东中西三大区域经济差距的时空演变特征[J].经济地理,2010(4):574-578.
[43]PORTER M E,VAN DER LINDE C.Toward a new conception of the environment-competitiveness relationship[J].Journal of economic perspectives,1995,9(4):97-118.
(1)数据来源于《迈向环境可持续的未来---中华人民共和国国家环境分析》。
(2)考虑到环境规制与污染治理之间关系的研究较为丰富,且结论较为统一,不会因为本文额外讨论就业而改变环境规制与污染治理之间的基本关系,所以本文以环境规制有利于污染治理作为基本前提和逻辑起点,在实证中不再赘论二者的关系。
(3)资料来源于国家统计公报。
(4)早期个体从业人员和私营部门急剧扩张,特别是1994年到2000年扩张速度年均超过10%,而农业剩余劳动力转移速度没能跟上,所以导致了城镇单位就业人员流失,表现为下降趋势。
(5)由于1997年以前SO2排放数据缺失,我们在实际操作中采用1998年数据近似替代。此外,对1998年以前的年份用1998年数据代替,而1998年之后的年份用1998年数据的2倍来代替,这样既避免经过双重差分后SO2信息被消除,又不会在控制偏误中引入其他年份的无关信息从而导致无法达到准确控制选择性偏误的目的。
(6)在对模型估计的实际操作过程中,本文对所有绝对量指标进行了对数化处理。
(7)东、中、西部地区划分标准参考彭文斌和刘友金[42]的研究,其中东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南;中部地区包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南;西部地区包括内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆。
(8)即便采用国家统计局常用的东、中、西、东北的划分方法,其结果也不显著。
[2]SONG T,ZHENG T,TONG L.An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China:a panel cointegration approach[J].China economic review,2008,19(3):381-392.
[3]高世楫,王海芹,李维明.改革开放40年生态文明体制改革历程与取向观察[J].改革,2018(8):49-63.
[4]GOODSTEIN E.Jobs and the environment:an overview[J].Environmental management,1996,20(3):313-321.
[5]CURTIS E M.Who loses under power plant cap-and-trade programs?[R].NBER working paper,2014,NO.20808.
[6]HENDERSON V.The impact of air quality regulation on industrial location[J].Annales déconomie et de statistique,1997,45(45):123-137.
[7]GREENSTONE M.The impacts of environmental regulations on industrial activity:evidence from the 1970 and 1977clean air act amendments and the census of manufactures[J].Journal of political economy,2002,110(6):1175-1219.
[8]陆旸.中国的绿色政策与就业:存在双重红利吗?[J].经济研究,2011(7):42-54.
[9]BEZDEK R H,WENDLING R M,DIPERNA P.Environmental protection,the economy,and jobs:national and regional analyses[J].Journal of environmental management,2008,86(1):63-79.
[10]IILS.World of work report 2009:the global jobs crisis and beyond[R].International Institute for Labor Studies,2009.
[11]陈媛媛.行业环境管制对就业影响的经验研究:基于25个工业行业的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2011(3):67-73.
[12]BELOVA A,GRAY W B,LINN J,et al.Environmental regulation and industry employment:a reassessment[R].USCensus Bureau Center for Economic studies paper,2013,NO.CES-WP-13-26.
[13]GRAY W B,SHADBEGIAN R J,WANG C,et al.Do EPA regulations affect labor demand?Evidence from the pulp and paper industry[J].Journal of environmental economics&management,2014,68(1):188-202.
[14]闫文娟,郭树龙,史亚东.环境规制、产业结构升级与就业效应:线性还是非线性?[J].经济科学,2012(6):23-32.
[15]王勇,施美程,李建民.环境规制对就业的影响---基于中国工业行业面板数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2013(3):54-64.
[16]李梦洁,杜威剑.环境规制与就业的双重红利适用于中国现阶段吗?---基于省际面板数据的经验分析[J].经济科学,2014(4):14-26.
[17]李珊珊.环境规制对异质性劳动力就业的影响---基于省级动态面板数据的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(8):135-143.
[18]秦楠,刘李华,孙早.环境规制对就业的影响研究---基于中国工业行业异质性的视角[J].经济评论,2018(1):106-119.
[19]KAHN M E,MANSUR E T.Do local energy prices and regulation affect the geographic concentration of employment?[J].Journal of public economics,2013,101(1):105-114.
[20]WALKER W R.Environmental regulation and labor reallocation:evidence from the Clean Air Act[J].American economic review,2011,101(3):442-447.
[21]孙文远,杨琴.环境规制对就业的影响---基于我国“两控区”政策的实证研究[J].审计与经济研究,2017(5):96-107.
[22]CAI X,LU Y,WU M,et al.Does environmental regulation drive away inbound foreign direct investment?Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China[J].Journal of development economics,2016,123:73-85.
[23]张志强.环境规制提高了中国城市环境质量吗?---基于“拟自然实验”的证据[J].产业经济研究,2017(3):69-80.
[24]史贝贝,冯晨,张妍,等.环境规制红利的边际递增效应[J].中国工业经济,2017(12):40-58.
[25]盛丹,张慧玲.环境管制与我国的出口产品质量升级---基于两控区政策的考察[J].财贸经济,2017(8):80-97.
[26]SMULDERS S,GRADUS R.Pollution abatement and long-term growth[J].European journal of political economy,1996,12(3):505-532.
[27]COLE M A,ELLIOTT R J R,WU S.Industrial activity and the environment in China:an industry-level analysis[J].China economic review,2008,19(3):393-408.
[28]YANASE A.Impatience,pollution,and indeterminacy[J].Journal of economic dynamics&control,2011,35(10):1789-1799.
[29]任栋.调查失业率与登记失业率之差异辨析[J].中国人口科学,2013(2):42-48.
[30]LI P,LU Y,WANG J.Does flattening government improve economic performance?Evidence from China[J].Journal of development economics,2016,123:18-37.
[31]ANDREONI J,LEVINSON A.The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve[J].Journal of public economics,2001,80(2):269-286.
[32]滕瑜,李天祥,于之倩.中国就业变化的因素与潜力分析[J].中国软科学,2016(7):33-42.
[33]毛日昇.出口、外商直接投资与中国制造业就业[J].经济研究,2009(11):105-117.
[34]张抗私,刘翠花,丁述磊.正规就业与非正规就业工资差异研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(1):83-94.
[35]罗国勋.经济增长与劳动生产率、产业结构及就业结构的变动[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000(3):26-28.
[36]刘瑞明,亢延锟,黄维乔.就业市场扭曲、人力资本积累与阶层分化[J].经济学动态,2017(8):74-87.
[37]MARGLIN S A,SCHOR J B.The golden age of capitalism:reinterpreting the postwar experience[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1992,102:639.
[38]张子楠,王高望,赵晓军.工资刚性与国企效率损失[J].经济科学,2015(5):44-57.
[39]杨扬,余壮雄,王美今.FDI对中国就业效应的检验[J].经济学家,2009(5):5-14.
[40]单良,张涛.中国产业结构与就业结构协调性时空演变研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(2):39-49.
[41]郑新业,王晗,赵益卓.“省直管县”能促进经济增长吗?---双重差分方法[J].管理世界,2011(8):34-44.
[42]彭文斌,刘友金.我国东中西三大区域经济差距的时空演变特征[J].经济地理,2010(4):574-578.
[43]PORTER M E,VAN DER LINDE C.Toward a new conception of the environment-competitiveness relationship[J].Journal of economic perspectives,1995,9(4):97-118.
(1)数据来源于《迈向环境可持续的未来---中华人民共和国国家环境分析》。
(2)考虑到环境规制与污染治理之间关系的研究较为丰富,且结论较为统一,不会因为本文额外讨论就业而改变环境规制与污染治理之间的基本关系,所以本文以环境规制有利于污染治理作为基本前提和逻辑起点,在实证中不再赘论二者的关系。
(3)资料来源于国家统计公报。
(4)早期个体从业人员和私营部门急剧扩张,特别是1994年到2000年扩张速度年均超过10%,而农业剩余劳动力转移速度没能跟上,所以导致了城镇单位就业人员流失,表现为下降趋势。
(5)由于1997年以前SO2排放数据缺失,我们在实际操作中采用1998年数据近似替代。此外,对1998年以前的年份用1998年数据代替,而1998年之后的年份用1998年数据的2倍来代替,这样既避免经过双重差分后SO2信息被消除,又不会在控制偏误中引入其他年份的无关信息从而导致无法达到准确控制选择性偏误的目的。
(6)在对模型估计的实际操作过程中,本文对所有绝对量指标进行了对数化处理。
(7)东、中、西部地区划分标准参考彭文斌和刘友金[42]的研究,其中东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南;中部地区包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南;西部地区包括内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆。
(8)即便采用国家统计局常用的东、中、西、东北的划分方法,其结果也不显著。