基于解释结构模型和模糊分析的黄淮海平原区土地利用结构优化——以河北省曲周县为例
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摘要
为探索通过优化土地利用结构改善黄淮海平原区土地利用存在的不合理现象的途径,拟通过构建多目标规划模型,运用解释结构模型将区域土地利用目标量化至目标函数及约束条件中,采用模糊两阶段算法对土地利用结构进行优化,以曲周县为例,通过Markov算法计算出自然演化方案下土地利用结构(2035年),并将现状方案(2012年)、自然演化方案(2035年)、优化方案进行对比并进行分析。结果表明:1)经过优化后的曲周县土地利用结构(2.87)其满意度明显高于现状方案(2.80)、自然演化方案(2.23),土地利用结构合理度也更高,土地利用结构优化方案具有有效性。2)对自然演化方案进行分析发现,曲周县现行的经济驱动模式对于生态效益、区域水资源造成损害,不利于生态环境的改善。以多目标优化模型为基础框架,嵌入ISM和模糊分析的土地利用结构优化方法对于区域土地利用结构优化具有借鉴意义,结合区域土地利用优化目标,保持其余地类结构的相对稳定,协调平衡耕地、林地、城镇村及工矿用地和未利用地间的结构比例是区域土地利用结构优化的基本途径。
In order to solve the developmental problem caused by the unreasonable structure and achieve the efficiency from land use structure,a multi-objective programming model is constructed in this study.The targets of the objective function and the constraint conditions of regional land use are quantified by ISM and fuzzy two stage algorithm is used to optimize the land use structure.Taking Quzhou County as an example,the current plan(2012)is compared with the optimization scheme and the natural evolution of land use structure(2035),which is operated by the Markov algorithm.The results show that:1)The satisfaction of optimized utilization structure(2.87)is significantly higher than the current plan(2.80),natural evolution scheme(2.23).And the rationality also is the highest one.The optimization scheme has a certain validity.2)Taking an analysis on the natural evolution scheme,it is found that the current economic driving mode in Quzhou County causes damage to its water resources and regional ecological benefit.And it is also not conducive to the improvement of the ecological environment.The main concluions are:1)Based on the multi-objective optimization model,the optimization method of land use structure embedded in ISM and fuzzy analysis has implications for the optimization of regional land use structure.2)Combining regional land-use optimization objectives,maintaining the relative stability of the rest of the land structure,and coordinating the balance between cultivated land,residentialquarters and industrial land,forest land and unused land are the basic approaches for optimization of regional land use structure.
In order to solve the developmental problem caused by the unreasonable structure and achieve the efficiency from land use structure,a multi-objective programming model is constructed in this study.The targets of the objective function and the constraint conditions of regional land use are quantified by ISM and fuzzy two stage algorithm is used to optimize the land use structure.Taking Quzhou County as an example,the current plan(2012)is compared with the optimization scheme and the natural evolution of land use structure(2035),which is operated by the Markov algorithm.The results show that:1)The satisfaction of optimized utilization structure(2.87)is significantly higher than the current plan(2.80),natural evolution scheme(2.23).And the rationality also is the highest one.The optimization scheme has a certain validity.2)Taking an analysis on the natural evolution scheme,it is found that the current economic driving mode in Quzhou County causes damage to its water resources and regional ecological benefit.And it is also not conducive to the improvement of the ecological environment.The main concluions are:1)Based on the multi-objective optimization model,the optimization method of land use structure embedded in ISM and fuzzy analysis has implications for the optimization of regional land use structure.2)Combining regional land-use optimization objectives,maintaining the relative stability of the rest of the land structure,and coordinating the balance between cultivated land,residentialquarters and industrial land,forest land and unused land are the basic approaches for optimization of regional land use structure.
引文
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[2]刘彦随.区域土地利用系统优化调控的机理与模式[J].资源科学,1999(4):63-68Liu Y S.Optimal regulation mechanism and models of regional land use system[J].Resources Science,1999,21(4):60-65(in Chinese)
[3]李鑫,欧名豪,刘建生,严思齐.基于不确定性理论的区域土地利用结构优化[J].农业工程学报,2014(4):176-184Li X,Ou M H,Liu J S,Yan S Q.Regional land use structure optimization under uncertain theory[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(4):176-184(in Chinese)
[4]黄迎春,杨伯钢,张飞舟,张文新.基于同类城市建设目标的北京市土地利用结构优化[J].农业工程学报,2016(4):217-227Huang Y C,Yang B G,Zhang F Z,Zhang W X.Optimization of land use structure in Beijing based on goal of similar city in world[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(4):217-227(in Chinese)
[5]胡振琪,赵淑芹.中国东部丘陵矿区复垦土地利用结构优化研究[J].农业工程学报,2006(5):78-81Hu Z Q,Zhao S Q.Structure optimization of the reclaimed land use in the hill mining area of Eastern China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2006,22(5):78-81(in Chinese)
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[8]朱琳,吕本富.解释结构模型的简便方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2004(12):1815-1817Zhu L,Lv B F.Simple and convenient method of ISM[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2004(12):1815-1817(in Chinese)
[9]王从陆,吴超,李树清.基于解释结构模型的事故原因层次分析[J].矿业研究与开发,2004(5):77-79Wang C L,Wu C,Li S Q.Layer analysis of accident causes based on interpretation structure model[J].Mining R&D,2004(5):77-79(in Chinese)
[10]梅登华,蔡淮,徐志根. Decision-makinginfuzzy environment[J].电子科技大学学报,1998(2):89-93Mei D H,Cai H,Xu C G.Decision-making in Fuzzy Environment[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,1998(2):89-93(in Chinese)
[11] ZimmermannHJ. Fuzzyprogrammingandlinear programming with several objective functions[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1978,1(1):45-55
[12]李学全,李辉.多目标线性规划的模糊折衷算法[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2004,35(3):514-517Li X Q,Li H.Fuzzy compromise method for multiobjective linear programming problems[J].Journal of Central South University:Science And Technology,2004,35(3):514-517(in Chinese)
[13] Lee E S,Negi D S.Aualysis and simulation of fuzzzy queues[J].Fuzzy Sets Anel Systems,1992,46(3):321-330
[14]刘琼,欧名豪,彭晓英.基于马尔柯夫过程的区域土地利用结构预测研究:以江苏省昆山市为例[J].南京农业大学学报,2005(03):107-112Liu Q,Ou M H,Peng X Y.The forecast of land use structure based on Markov process:A case of Kunshan City[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University,2005,28(3):107-112(in Chinese)
[15]雷鸣,孔祥斌.水资源约束下的黄淮海平原区土地利用结构优化[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):27-37Lei M,Kong X B.Optimization of land use structure in Huang-Huai-Hai plain under water resources constraint[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(6):27-37(in Chinese)
[16]郝晋珉.土地利用控制[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1996Hao J M.Land Use Control[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Science Press,1996(in Chinese)
[17]赵荣钦,黄贤金,钟太洋.中国不同产业空间的碳排放强度与碳足迹分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(9):1048-1057Zhao R Q,Huang X J,Zhong T Y.Research on carbon emission intensity and carbon footprint of different industrial spaces in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010(9):1048-1057(in Chinese)
[18]王博,姜海,冯淑怡,曲福田.基于多情景分析的中国建设用地总量控制目标选择[J].中国·资源与环境,2014,24(3):69-76Wang B,Jiang H,Feng S Y,Qu F T.Options for the quantity control of construction land expansion based on scenario analysis[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(3):69-76(in Chinese)
[19]雷鸣,孔祥斌,张雪靓,吴芳芳.黄淮海平原区土地利用变化对地下水资源量变化的影响[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1099-1116Lei M,Kong X B,Zhang X L,Wu F F.Land use change and impact on groundwater storage in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Resources Science,2017,39(6):1099-1116(in Chinese)
[20]郭杰,吴斌,欧名豪,刘琼,欧维新.兰州市多目标区域土地利用系统优化研究[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(7):72-79Guo J,Wu B,Ou M H,Liu Q,Ou W X.Multi-objectives optimization of regional land use in Lanzhou city[J].China Land Science,2011,25(7):72-79(in Chinese)
[21]雷磊,王玺.解决模糊多目标线性规划问题的折衷模型研究[J].统计与决策,2015(18):15-18Lei L,Wang X.A compromise model for solving fuzzy multiobjective linear programming problems[J].Statistics and Decision,2015(18):15-18(in Chinese)
[22]李景刚.基于资源价值的土地可持续利用规划研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2006Li J G.Research on sustainable land use planning based on valuation of resources[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Agricultural University,2006(in Chinese)
[23]李景刚,欧名豪,高艳梅,李景欣.基于资源价值重构的土地可持续利用规划研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(1):71-76Li J G,Ou M H,Gao Y M,Li J X.Research on the sustainable land use planning according to reconstruction of resources value[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2006,16(1):71-76(in Chinese)
[24]但承龙.代际公平原则与可持续土地利用规划:南京市的实例研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2004(2):100-104Dan C L.Intergenerational equity and sustainable land use planning:Take Nanjing city of Jiangsu province as an example[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2004(2):100-104(in Chinese)
[25]王丹丹,王慎敏,刘文琦,张余庆.交互式多目标土地利用规划模型研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(3):92-97Wang D D,Wang S M,Liu W Q,Zhang Y Q.Study on interactive multi-objective land use planning model[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2015,31(3):92-97(in Chinese)
[26]靳舒葳,张凯.模糊两阶段优化方法应用于东营市生态系统规划[J].生态学报,2018(4):1500-1509Jin S W,Zhang K.A fuzzy two-stage optimization method for ecosystem planning in Dongying[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018(4):1500-1509(in Chinese)
[27]姚进忠,曾建军.石羊河流域土地利用结构合理性评价[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(3):230-234Yao J Z,Zeng J J. Assessment of land use structure rationality in Shiyang river basin[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016(3):230-234(in Chinese)
[2]刘彦随.区域土地利用系统优化调控的机理与模式[J].资源科学,1999(4):63-68Liu Y S.Optimal regulation mechanism and models of regional land use system[J].Resources Science,1999,21(4):60-65(in Chinese)
[3]李鑫,欧名豪,刘建生,严思齐.基于不确定性理论的区域土地利用结构优化[J].农业工程学报,2014(4):176-184Li X,Ou M H,Liu J S,Yan S Q.Regional land use structure optimization under uncertain theory[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(4):176-184(in Chinese)
[4]黄迎春,杨伯钢,张飞舟,张文新.基于同类城市建设目标的北京市土地利用结构优化[J].农业工程学报,2016(4):217-227Huang Y C,Yang B G,Zhang F Z,Zhang W X.Optimization of land use structure in Beijing based on goal of similar city in world[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2016,32(4):217-227(in Chinese)
[5]胡振琪,赵淑芹.中国东部丘陵矿区复垦土地利用结构优化研究[J].农业工程学报,2006(5):78-81Hu Z Q,Zhao S Q.Structure optimization of the reclaimed land use in the hill mining area of Eastern China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2006,22(5):78-81(in Chinese)
[6] Haber W.Using Landscape Ecology in Planning and Management[M].New York:Springer-Verlag New York Inc,1990
[7] Warfield John N.Binary matrices in system modeling[J].IEEE Transactions of Systems,Man and Cybernetics,1973,3(5):441-449
[8]朱琳,吕本富.解释结构模型的简便方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2004(12):1815-1817Zhu L,Lv B F.Simple and convenient method of ISM[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2004(12):1815-1817(in Chinese)
[9]王从陆,吴超,李树清.基于解释结构模型的事故原因层次分析[J].矿业研究与开发,2004(5):77-79Wang C L,Wu C,Li S Q.Layer analysis of accident causes based on interpretation structure model[J].Mining R&D,2004(5):77-79(in Chinese)
[10]梅登华,蔡淮,徐志根. Decision-makinginfuzzy environment[J].电子科技大学学报,1998(2):89-93Mei D H,Cai H,Xu C G.Decision-making in Fuzzy Environment[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,1998(2):89-93(in Chinese)
[11] ZimmermannHJ. Fuzzyprogrammingandlinear programming with several objective functions[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1978,1(1):45-55
[12]李学全,李辉.多目标线性规划的模糊折衷算法[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2004,35(3):514-517Li X Q,Li H.Fuzzy compromise method for multiobjective linear programming problems[J].Journal of Central South University:Science And Technology,2004,35(3):514-517(in Chinese)
[13] Lee E S,Negi D S.Aualysis and simulation of fuzzzy queues[J].Fuzzy Sets Anel Systems,1992,46(3):321-330
[14]刘琼,欧名豪,彭晓英.基于马尔柯夫过程的区域土地利用结构预测研究:以江苏省昆山市为例[J].南京农业大学学报,2005(03):107-112Liu Q,Ou M H,Peng X Y.The forecast of land use structure based on Markov process:A case of Kunshan City[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University,2005,28(3):107-112(in Chinese)
[15]雷鸣,孔祥斌.水资源约束下的黄淮海平原区土地利用结构优化[J].中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):27-37Lei M,Kong X B.Optimization of land use structure in Huang-Huai-Hai plain under water resources constraint[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2017,38(6):27-37(in Chinese)
[16]郝晋珉.土地利用控制[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1996Hao J M.Land Use Control[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Science Press,1996(in Chinese)
[17]赵荣钦,黄贤金,钟太洋.中国不同产业空间的碳排放强度与碳足迹分析[J].地理学报,2010,65(9):1048-1057Zhao R Q,Huang X J,Zhong T Y.Research on carbon emission intensity and carbon footprint of different industrial spaces in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010(9):1048-1057(in Chinese)
[18]王博,姜海,冯淑怡,曲福田.基于多情景分析的中国建设用地总量控制目标选择[J].中国·资源与环境,2014,24(3):69-76Wang B,Jiang H,Feng S Y,Qu F T.Options for the quantity control of construction land expansion based on scenario analysis[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(3):69-76(in Chinese)
[19]雷鸣,孔祥斌,张雪靓,吴芳芳.黄淮海平原区土地利用变化对地下水资源量变化的影响[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1099-1116Lei M,Kong X B,Zhang X L,Wu F F.Land use change and impact on groundwater storage in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Resources Science,2017,39(6):1099-1116(in Chinese)
[20]郭杰,吴斌,欧名豪,刘琼,欧维新.兰州市多目标区域土地利用系统优化研究[J].中国土地科学,2011,25(7):72-79Guo J,Wu B,Ou M H,Liu Q,Ou W X.Multi-objectives optimization of regional land use in Lanzhou city[J].China Land Science,2011,25(7):72-79(in Chinese)
[21]雷磊,王玺.解决模糊多目标线性规划问题的折衷模型研究[J].统计与决策,2015(18):15-18Lei L,Wang X.A compromise model for solving fuzzy multiobjective linear programming problems[J].Statistics and Decision,2015(18):15-18(in Chinese)
[22]李景刚.基于资源价值的土地可持续利用规划研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2006Li J G.Research on sustainable land use planning based on valuation of resources[D].Nanjing:Nanjing Agricultural University,2006(in Chinese)
[23]李景刚,欧名豪,高艳梅,李景欣.基于资源价值重构的土地可持续利用规划研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(1):71-76Li J G,Ou M H,Gao Y M,Li J X.Research on the sustainable land use planning according to reconstruction of resources value[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2006,16(1):71-76(in Chinese)
[24]但承龙.代际公平原则与可持续土地利用规划:南京市的实例研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2004(2):100-104Dan C L.Intergenerational equity and sustainable land use planning:Take Nanjing city of Jiangsu province as an example[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2004(2):100-104(in Chinese)
[25]王丹丹,王慎敏,刘文琦,张余庆.交互式多目标土地利用规划模型研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(3):92-97Wang D D,Wang S M,Liu W Q,Zhang Y Q.Study on interactive multi-objective land use planning model[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2015,31(3):92-97(in Chinese)
[26]靳舒葳,张凯.模糊两阶段优化方法应用于东营市生态系统规划[J].生态学报,2018(4):1500-1509Jin S W,Zhang K.A fuzzy two-stage optimization method for ecosystem planning in Dongying[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018(4):1500-1509(in Chinese)
[27]姚进忠,曾建军.石羊河流域土地利用结构合理性评价[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(3):230-234Yao J Z,Zeng J J. Assessment of land use structure rationality in Shiyang river basin[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016(3):230-234(in Chinese)