国内外人口收缩研究进展综述
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摘要
近年来随着全球人口出生率下降,人口收缩逐渐成为全球面临的共同问题,这一现象在我国也日趋明显,未来需要持续的关注和研究。本文从人口收缩的内涵和测度方法、变化趋势及空间特征、影响因素等几个重要的方面对国内外的研究进行了系统的梳理和总结。基于现有的研究,国内对人口收缩的研究未来需要重点关注以下方面:一是需要加强人口收缩区空间演变特征及趋势的研究,总结过去不同时期及分析未来人口收缩的空间变化规律;二是需要结合我国人口变化的特点,建立人口收缩形成机理的理论框架,对人口收缩的影响因素进行探讨;三是需要进一步讨论人口收缩的正负社会经济效应及应对策略,尤其是根据不同区域的经济发展、资源环境状况进行有针对性的分类探讨;四是需要加强人口收缩区城镇化问题等区域发展重大问题的研究。
With the decrease of fertility level in past decades, population shrinking has gained much attention across the world. It has also gradually become a general problem in China, which need further studies in the future.This paper has reviewed the progress of these studies from the connotation of population shrinking, the measurement methods, its spatial characteristics and trend, and the causes of population shrinking. Based on the existing studies,we found that some aspects of population shrinking should be concerned in the future studies in China. First, the spatial characteristics and change trend need further research, especially the spatial pattern among different stages and how population shrinking will be evolution in the future. Second, based on the law of population change in China, the research framework of the mechanism of population shrinking should be established. Third, the future studies should conduct more discussion about the positive and negative regional effect and also the coping strategies and the regional difference of economic development and environmental situation should be considered in this process.Fourth, some major issues of regional development, including urbanization and urban planning, should be strengthened in regions of population shrinking.
With the decrease of fertility level in past decades, population shrinking has gained much attention across the world. It has also gradually become a general problem in China, which need further studies in the future.This paper has reviewed the progress of these studies from the connotation of population shrinking, the measurement methods, its spatial characteristics and trend, and the causes of population shrinking. Based on the existing studies,we found that some aspects of population shrinking should be concerned in the future studies in China. First, the spatial characteristics and change trend need further research, especially the spatial pattern among different stages and how population shrinking will be evolution in the future. Second, based on the law of population change in China, the research framework of the mechanism of population shrinking should be established. Third, the future studies should conduct more discussion about the positive and negative regional effect and also the coping strategies and the regional difference of economic development and environmental situation should be considered in this process.Fourth, some major issues of regional development, including urbanization and urban planning, should be strengthened in regions of population shrinking.
引文
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[51]张学良,刘玉博,吕存超.中国城市收缩的背景、识别与特征分析.东南大学学报:(哲学社会科学版),2016,18(4):132-139.
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[57]李郇,杜志威,李先锋.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制.现代城市研究,2015(9):36-43.
[58]吴康,龙瀛,杨宇.京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩:格局、类型与影响因素识别.现代城市研究,2015(9):26-35.
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[65]刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理.地理学报,2012,67(8):1011-1020.
[66]刘晏伶,冯健.中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素---基于第六次人口普查数据的分析.人文地理,2014(2):129-137.
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(1)“区域”通常是指一定界线的地域空间,本文所指“区域”主要是指低于国家尺度的相对独立的社会经济单元(Subnational units),如我国的省、地级市等,西方国家的州、县等;同时根据区域空间结构的不同,又可将其进一步细分为城市地区和乡村地区。
(2)城市人口收缩或减少是反映“收缩城市”的重要方面,但城市人口收缩并不完全等同于收缩城市。本文主要分析涉及城市人口收缩的相关研究。
[2]Turok I,Mykhnenko V.The trajectories of European cities,1960-2005.Cities,2007,24(3):165-182.
[3]Logan J.Greening the Rust Belt:A Green Infrastructure Model for Right Sizing America's Shrinking Cities.Journal of the American Planning Association,2008,74(4):451-466.
[4]Verwest F.Demographic decline and local government strategies:A study of policy change in the Netherlands.Delft:Eburon,2011.
[5]Martinez-Fernandez C,Kubo N,Noya A,et al.Demographic Change and Local Development:Shrinkage,Regeneration and Social Dynamics.Moral,2012.
[6]Rocak M,Reverda N,Hermans M.People's climate in shrinking areas:the case of Heerlen,the Netherlands:how investing in culture and social networks improves the quality of life in shrinking areas.OECD,2012:249-257.
[7]Van Nimwegen N,Van Der Erf R.Europe at the crossroads:Demographic challenges and international migration.Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies,2010,36(9):1359-1379.
[8]Rees P,Van Der Gaag N,De Beer J,et al.European regional populations:Current trends,future pathways,and policy options.European Journal of Population,2012,28(4):385.
[9]Lutz W,Skirbekk V.Policies addressing the Tempo Effect in low-fertility countries.Population&Development Review,2005,31(4):699-720.
[10]Walford N,Kurek S.Outworking of the second demographic transition:National trends and regional patterns of fertility change in Poland,and England and Wales,2002-2012.Population,Space and Place,2016,17(6):691-718.
[11]Clark R L,Ogawa N,Kondo M,et al.Population decline,labor force stability,and the future of the Japanese economy.European Journal of Population,2010,26(2):207-227.
[12]Campbell R.Population decline and ageing in Japan:The social consequences by Florian Coulmas.Asian Journal of Social Science,2011,17(2):361-367.
[13]Van Dalen H P,Henkens K.Who fears and who welcomes population decline?.Demographic Research,2011,25(13):437-464.
[14]Reher D S.Towards Long-Term Population Decline:A Discussion of Relevant Issues(Vers un déclinàlong terme de la population:discussion des questions pertinentes).European Journal of Population,2007,23(2):189-207.
[15]Bourgeoispichat J.Recent demographic change in western Europe:an assessment.Population&Development Review,1981,7(1):19-42.
[16]Cooke P N.The Rise of the Rustbelt[M].UCL Press,1995:453-473.
[17]Hospers G J.Restructuring Europe's Rustbelt:The Case of the German Ruhrgebiet.Intereconomics,2004,39(3):147-156.
[18]Hospers G J,Reverda N.Managing Population Decline in Europe's Urban and Rural Areas.Springer International Publishing,2015.
[19]Alho J,Alders M,Cruijsen H,et al.New forecast:Population decline postponed in Europe.Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe,2006,23(1):1-10.
[20]Koo S Y.A demographic-economic model for the Republic of Korea:long-term demographic prospects and policy impacts.United Nations,1983.
[21]Rathge R,Highman P.Population change in the Great Plains:a history of prolonged decline.Rural Development Perspectives Washington D.C,1998,183(1):65-72.
[22]Antonov A I.Russia's demographic future:is depopulation here forever?1999(3):80-87.
[23]Giannakouris K.Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the European societies.Eurostat Statistics in Focus,2008(72).
[24]Breev B D.Problems of population aging and depopulation.Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya,1998.
[25]Tsuji A.The Projections of Labour Force Population and the Future Change of Dependency Burden in Japan.Journal of Population Studies,1999:1-13.
[26]Kim H,Park Y,Lee H.Regional population structure and changes in South Korea,1992-2010.Discussion Paper,2012.
[27]Murdock S H,Cline M E,Zey M,et al.Effects of Population Change on the Size and Characteristics of the Labor Force of the United States.Springer Netherlands,2015:132.
[28]Bélanger A,Bastien N.The Future Composition of the Canadian Labor Force:A Microsimulation Projection.Population and Development Review,2013,39(3):509-525.
[29]Morrill R.Fifty years of population change in the US 1960-2010.Cities,2012,29(4):S29-S40.
[30]H覿uβermann H,Siebel W.Die Schrumpfende Stadt und die Stadtsoziologie.VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften,1988:78-94.
[31]Fol S,Cunningham-Sabot E.Urban decline and shrinking cities:A critical assessment of approaches to urban regression.Medicinal Chemistry,2010,5(2):130-138.
[32]Wiechmann T,Pallagst K M.Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA:a comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies.International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,2012,36(2):261-280.
[33]Wolff M,Wiechmann T.Spatiotemporal patterns of Shrinking Cities in Europe 1990-2010.St.Petersburg:European Regional Science Association,2014.
[34]Morrison P A.Urban Growth and Decline in the United States.Internal Migration,1974:235-254.
[35]Short J R,Mussman M.Population Change in U.S.Cities:Estimating and Explaining the Extent of Decline and Level of Resurgence.Professional Geographer,2014,66(1):112-123.
[36]Pallagst K,Wiechmann T.Shrinking Smart?St覿dtische Schrumpfungsprozesse in den USA.Wiesbaden:VS Verlag,2005.
[37]Pallagst K,Aber J.The Future of Shrinking Cities:Problems,Patterns and Strategies of Urban Transformation in a Global Context.Sae Technical Papers,2009,2015.
[38]Richardson H,Nam C W.Shrinking Cities:A Global Perspective.NY:Routledge,2014.
[39]Anríquez G,Stloukal L.Rural population change in developing countries:lessons for policymaking.European View,2008,7(7):309-317.
[40]Division U P.World urbanization prospects.United Nations Publications,2014.
[41]Bilsborrow R E.Migration,population change,and the rural environment.Environmental Change&Security Project Report,2002.
[42]Champion T,Shepherd J.Demographic Change in Rural England.2006.
[43]Johnson K M.Rural Demographic Change in the New Century:Slower Growth,Increased Diversity.Durham N.h.Carsey Institute University of New Hampshire,2012.
[44]王丰,郭志刚,茅倬彦.21世纪中国人口负增长惯性初探.人口研究,2008,32(6):7-17.
[45]田香兰.日本人口减少及老龄化对综合国力的影响---兼论日本的人口政策及效果.日本学刊,2011(5):107-121.
[46]詹军,乔钰涵.韩国的人口老龄化与社会养老政策.世界地理研究,2017,26(4):49-61
[47]王露,杨艳昭,封志明,等.基于分县尺度的2020-2030年中国未来人口分布.地理研究,2014,33(2):310-322.
[48]王露,封志明,杨艳昭,等.2000-2010年中国不同地区人口密度变化及其影响因素.地理学报,2014,69(12):1790-1798.
[49]Wei,Q.,Liu,S.,Zhao,M.,et al.China's different spatial patterns of population growth based on the“Hu Line”.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,26(11):1611-1625.
[50]封志明,杨玲,杨艳昭,等.京津冀都市圈人口集疏过程与空间格局分析.地球信息科学学报,2013,15(1):11-18.
[51]张学良,刘玉博,吕存超.中国城市收缩的背景、识别与特征分析.东南大学学报:(哲学社会科学版),2016,18(4):132-139.
[52]龙瀛,吴康,王江浩.中国收缩城市及其研究框架.现代城市研究,2015(9):14-19.
[53]杨东峰,殷成志.如何拯救收缩的城市:英国老工业城市转型经验及启示.国际城市规划,2013,28(6):50-56.
[54]刘云刚.面向人口减少时代的城市规划:日本的经验和借鉴.现代城市研究,2016(2):8-10.
[55]高舒琦.收缩城市研究综述.城市规划学刊,2015(3):44-49
[56]刘合林.收缩城市量化计算方法进展.现代城市研究,2016(2):17-22.
[57]李郇,杜志威,李先锋.珠江三角洲城镇收缩的空间分布与机制.现代城市研究,2015(9):36-43.
[58]吴康,龙瀛,杨宇.京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩:格局、类型与影响因素识别.现代城市研究,2015(9):26-35.
[59]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2014.
[60]Zhang K H,Song S.Rural-urban migration and urbanization in China:Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses.China Economic Review,2003,14(4):386-400.
[61]Seeborg M C,Jin Z,Zhu Y.The new rural-urban labor mobility in China:Causes and implications.Journal of Socio-Economics,2000,29(1):39-56.
[62]Liu Z,Liu S,Jin H,et al.Rural population change in China:Spatial differences,driving forces and policy implications.Journal of Rural Studies,2017,51:189-197.
[63]刘彦随,刘玉.中国农村空心化问题研究的进展与展望.地理研究,2010,29(1):35-42.
[64]董青青,范迪军.我国农村人口空心化问题的研究进展与展望.南昌师范学院学报,2012,33(5):15-20.
[65]刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理.地理学报,2012,67(8):1011-1020.
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(1)“区域”通常是指一定界线的地域空间,本文所指“区域”主要是指低于国家尺度的相对独立的社会经济单元(Subnational units),如我国的省、地级市等,西方国家的州、县等;同时根据区域空间结构的不同,又可将其进一步细分为城市地区和乡村地区。
(2)城市人口收缩或减少是反映“收缩城市”的重要方面,但城市人口收缩并不完全等同于收缩城市。本文主要分析涉及城市人口收缩的相关研究。