人民币汇率变动对就业和就业结构的影响——基于跨境贸易人民币结算的视角
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摘要
文章通过构建劳动力市场动态一般均衡模型,创新性引入跨境贸易人民币结算进出口额占比指标,推导出汇率影响就业的全新路径机制,并使用2000-2016年中国31个地区的面板数据进行实证研究。研究发现:在跨境贸易人民币结算实行之后,汇率变动对就业和就业结构的影响变小。人民币升值可能导致跨境贸易人民币结算比重下降,造成外贸企业面临较大的汇率风险,不利于就业增长,还会导致二三产业就业比重下降及贸易与非贸易部门就业之比降低,不利于就业技能结构改善。人民币结算的"跛足"特征会增强上述负向作用,但与跨境贸易人民币结算实施之前相比,这种不利影响在减弱。此外,汇率对"一带一路"地区就业和就业结构的影响较小,并且跨境贸易人民币结算发展的地区不均衡,扩大地区间就业和就业结构所面临的汇率风险的差异。
Through constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model of labor market,this paper introduces the index of import and export ratio of RMB settlement of cross-border trade innovatively, deduces new path of mechanism of exchange rate influencing employment, and uses panel data of 31 regions in China from 2000 to 2016 to carry out empirical research. The study founds that: exchange rate movement has weaker effect on employment and employment structure after cross-border trade settlement implemented. RMB appreciation may lead to a decrease in the proportion of RMB settlement in cross-border trade, thus causing foreign trade enterprises to face greater exchange rate risk, which is not conducive to employment growth, but resulting in a decrease in the share of employment of the secondary and tertiary sectors and in the ratio of trade to non-trade sector employment, and also not conducive to improvement of structure of employment skill. The "limp" feature of RMB settlement will enhance the negative effect above,however,the impact is weaken compared with that before cross-border trade settlement implemented. In addition,the impact of exchange rate on employment and employment structure in "Belt and Road" region is weaker,moreover, the regional imbalance in development of RMB settlement in cross-border trade will expand the difference of exchange rate risks in terms of employment and employment structure of different regions.
Through constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model of labor market,this paper introduces the index of import and export ratio of RMB settlement of cross-border trade innovatively, deduces new path of mechanism of exchange rate influencing employment, and uses panel data of 31 regions in China from 2000 to 2016 to carry out empirical research. The study founds that: exchange rate movement has weaker effect on employment and employment structure after cross-border trade settlement implemented. RMB appreciation may lead to a decrease in the proportion of RMB settlement in cross-border trade, thus causing foreign trade enterprises to face greater exchange rate risk, which is not conducive to employment growth, but resulting in a decrease in the share of employment of the secondary and tertiary sectors and in the ratio of trade to non-trade sector employment, and also not conducive to improvement of structure of employment skill. The "limp" feature of RMB settlement will enhance the negative effect above,however,the impact is weaken compared with that before cross-border trade settlement implemented. In addition,the impact of exchange rate on employment and employment structure in "Belt and Road" region is weaker,moreover, the regional imbalance in development of RMB settlement in cross-border trade will expand the difference of exchange rate risks in terms of employment and employment structure of different regions.
引文
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[12]马光明,任颖,郭东方.跨境贸易人民币结算比重影响因素的实证研究[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2018(1):119-141.
[13]谭祖谊.中国进出口商品结构变化及其对中美贸易条件的影响[J].国际贸易问题,2014(7):53-61.
[14]董有德,李晓静.“一带一路”与跨境贸易人民币结算发展的地区差异———基于中国各省份面板数据的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(11):3-14.
[2]CAMPA J,GOLDBERG L. Employment versus wage adjustment and the US dollar[J]. The review of economics and statistics,2001,83(3):477-489.
[3]毛日昇.人民币实际汇率变化如何影响工业行业就业[J].经济研究,2013(3):56-69.
[4]丁剑平,鄂永健.实际汇率、工资和就业———对中国贸易部门和非贸易部门的实证研究[J].财经研究,2005(11):41-49.
[5] MOSER C,URBAN D,MAURO B. International competitiveness,job creation and job destruction-An establishment levelstudy of Germany job flows[J]. Journal of international economics,2010,80(2):302-317.
[6]BRUNEAU G,MORAN K. Exchange rate fluctuations and labor market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries[J].Canadian journal of economics,2017,50(1):72-93.
[7]FRANKEL J. Internationalization of the RMB and historical precedents[J]. Journal of economic integration,2012,27(3):329-365.
[8]彭红枫,陈文博,谭小玉.人民币国际化研究述评[J].国际金融研究,2015(10):12-20.
[9]AIZENMAN J. Internationalization of the RMB,capital market openness and financial reforms in China[J]. Pacific economicreview,2015,20(3):444-460.
[10]沙文兵,刘红忠.人民币国际化、汇率变动与汇率预期[J].国际金融研究,2014(8):10-18.
[11]REN Yinghua,GU Weiwen. The impact on RMB internationalization process:exchange rate expectation and foreign trade[J].Quantitative finance and economics,2017,1(1):114-124.
[12]马光明,任颖,郭东方.跨境贸易人民币结算比重影响因素的实证研究[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2018(1):119-141.
[13]谭祖谊.中国进出口商品结构变化及其对中美贸易条件的影响[J].国际贸易问题,2014(7):53-61.
[14]董有德,李晓静.“一带一路”与跨境贸易人民币结算发展的地区差异———基于中国各省份面板数据的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(11):3-14.