人口优化:人文人口学的使命
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摘要
在改革开放40年的历史背景下,重温人口经济关系如何从紧张转为缓和直至进入良性循环的过程可以发现,人口红利很大程度上是人口流动创造的。今后中国面临的主要问题是城市外来人口的市民化问题和社会融合问题。反思和讨论人口治理的方式和机制,以及人口控制的特点可以得出,低生育水平的实现并不意味着人口问题的终结,而是伴随着人口问题的转型。当下人口控制论已经有些力不从心,我国需要更富远见的鼓励生育和优化人口的政策。人口政策的改革就是不断还权于民和造福于民,以及提高人口总体社会福利水平的过程。人文人口学的使命就是构建中国本土特色的人口优化理论。
Under the historical background of 40 years of reform and opening up,it discussed how the demographic and economic relations have been transformed from tension to ease and finally entered a virtuous circle.The demographic dividend is largely created by population mobility.The main problems China would face in the future are the citizenization of urban migrant population and social integration.It reflected and discussed the methods and mechanism of population governance and summarizes eight characteristics of population control.The achievement of low fertility level does not mean the end of population problem,but accompanied by the transformation of population problem.China needs more far-sighted policies to encourage fertility and optimize population.The reform of population policy is a process of continuing to empower and benefit the people and improving the general social welfare of the population.The mission of humanistic demography is to build the population optimization theory with Chinese local characteristics.
Under the historical background of 40 years of reform and opening up,it discussed how the demographic and economic relations have been transformed from tension to ease and finally entered a virtuous circle.The demographic dividend is largely created by population mobility.The main problems China would face in the future are the citizenization of urban migrant population and social integration.It reflected and discussed the methods and mechanism of population governance and summarizes eight characteristics of population control.The achievement of low fertility level does not mean the end of population problem,but accompanied by the transformation of population problem.China needs more far-sighted policies to encourage fertility and optimize population.The reform of population policy is a process of continuing to empower and benefit the people and improving the general social welfare of the population.The mission of humanistic demography is to build the population optimization theory with Chinese local characteristics.
引文
(1)蔡昉把人口转变引致的不同人口年龄特征阶段看作经济增长的额外源泉,即人口红利。参见蔡昉:《人口转变、人口红利与经济增长可持续性》,《人口研究》2004年第2期。
(2)笔者在反思流行的人口红利理论的基础上,尝试构建了广义人口红利理论,以人的全面发展为中心收获人口的转变红利、投资红利、转移红利和转型红利。参见穆光宗:《中国的人口转变:反思与展望》,《浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2008年第3期。
(3)2018年11月初,全国政协双周协商座谈会提出中国仍将长期处于人口红利期的判断。参见《人口政策如何更科学》,《人民日报》2018年11月14日。
(1)国家卫生和计划生育委员会流动人口司编:《中国流动人口发展报告2017》,北京:中国人口出版社,2017年。
(1)总和生育率(TFR),指假设妇女按照某一年的年龄别生育率度过育龄期,平均每个妇女在育龄期生育的孩子数。
(2)笔者在反思流行的人口红利理论的基础上,尝试构建了广义人口红利理论,以人的全面发展为中心收获人口的转变红利、投资红利、转移红利和转型红利。参见穆光宗:《中国的人口转变:反思与展望》,《浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2008年第3期。
(3)2018年11月初,全国政协双周协商座谈会提出中国仍将长期处于人口红利期的判断。参见《人口政策如何更科学》,《人民日报》2018年11月14日。
(1)国家卫生和计划生育委员会流动人口司编:《中国流动人口发展报告2017》,北京:中国人口出版社,2017年。
(1)总和生育率(TFR),指假设妇女按照某一年的年龄别生育率度过育龄期,平均每个妇女在育龄期生育的孩子数。