第二次人口红利理论回顾与中国实践展望
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摘要
文章通过回顾第二次人口红利理论的发展与国内外相关研究成果,创新性地提出了将第二次人口红利分解为老龄化红利和人力资本红利的观点,并结合相关数据和多元线性回归模型,从宏观和微观两个层面进行了实证分析。研究发现,一方面,我国老年群体中高知老年人比例快速增加,从1982年的0.32%增加到2010年的3.26%(增幅达9.19倍),他们所具有的技术密集型行业就业特征以及高储蓄高投资的经济特征有利于未来收获老龄化红利;另一方面,随着我国劳动适龄人口人力资本水平不断提高,他们的就业模式正从劳动密集型行业向高附加值行业转变并促进了我国产业结构的转型升级,有利于收获人力资本红利。
By reviewing the development process of Second Demographic Dividend(SDD)theory as well as outcomes of existing researches,this article comes up with the idea that the SDD could be divided into two categories,namely Aging Dividend and Human Capital Dividend,and makes use of several data sets and Multiple Linear Regression Model to conduct empirical analysis on macro and micro levels. This research finds that on the one hand,the proportion of China's highly educated aging population increased rapidly,from 0.32% in 1982 to 3.26% in 2010(increasement of9.19 times),whose employment feature of technology intensive and economic propensity of high deposit and investment can boost China's Aging Dividend;on the other hand,because of the development of human capital investment of China's working age population,their employment mode is transferring from labor intensive to technology intensive and enhancing the upgrade of industry structure,which can boost China's Human Capital Dividend.
By reviewing the development process of Second Demographic Dividend(SDD)theory as well as outcomes of existing researches,this article comes up with the idea that the SDD could be divided into two categories,namely Aging Dividend and Human Capital Dividend,and makes use of several data sets and Multiple Linear Regression Model to conduct empirical analysis on macro and micro levels. This research finds that on the one hand,the proportion of China's highly educated aging population increased rapidly,from 0.32% in 1982 to 3.26% in 2010(increasement of9.19 times),whose employment feature of technology intensive and economic propensity of high deposit and investment can boost China's Aging Dividend;on the other hand,because of the development of human capital investment of China's working age population,their employment mode is transferring from labor intensive to technology intensive and enhancing the upgrade of industry structure,which can boost China's Human Capital Dividend.
引文
[1] Mason A. Population and the Asian Economic Miracle[J]. Asia-Pacific Population&Policy,1997:1-4.
[2] Bloom D. Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J].The World Bank Economic Review,1998(12):419-455.
[3] Mason A,Lee R. Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries:Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend[J]. Genus,2004(2):11-35.
[4] Lee R,MASON A. Population Aging and the Generational Economy–A Global Perspective[M]. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2011b.
[5] Mason A. Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developed and Developing Countries[J]. Bush,2005:1-30.
[6] Mason A,Lee R,Jiang J X. Demographic Dividends,Human Capital,and Saving[J]. J Econ Ageing,2016(7):106-122.
[7] Prskawetz A,Sambt J. Economic Support Ratios and the First and Second Demographic Dividend in Europe[J]. Demographic Research,2014(1):963-1010.
[8] Jorgensen O H. Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazil[J].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2011:1-34.
[9] Guest R. Population Ageing and Productivity:A Survey with Implications for New Zealand[J].New Zealand Economic Papers,2014(2):153-168.
[10] Abio G,Patxot C,Sanchez-Romero M,Souto G. The Welfare State and the Demographic Dividend:A Cross-country Comparison[J]. UB Economics Working Papers,2015:3-51.
[11] Abio G,Patxot C,Sanchez-Romero M,Souto G. The Welfare State and Demographic Dividends[J].Demographic Research,2017(36):1453-1490
[12]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010(4):4-13.
[13]蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009(1):2-10.
[14]王颖,邓博文,王建民.第二次人口红利:概念、产生机制及研究展望[J].经济与管理研究,2016(2):12-20.
[15]陈晶,黄险峰,冯志.亚洲国家(地区)人口年龄结构变化对储蓄率的影响研究——基于HW模型对中国“第二次人口红利”的分析[J].经济经纬,2014(5):62-67.
[16]陈纪平.我国老龄化进程中的第二人口红利:理论与实证[J].西北人口,2017(4):28-23.
[17]李超,罗润东.老龄化、预防动机与家庭储蓄率——对中国第二次人口红利的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2018(2):104-113.
[18]孟令国.二次人口红利视角下弹性退休制度对养老保险的影响[J].经济经纬,2015(3):138-143.
[19]耿志祥,孙祁祥.人口老龄化、延迟退休与第二次人口红利[J].金融研究,2017(1):52-68.
[20]刘渝琳,李宜航.延迟退休年龄是否会带来二次人口红利[J].人口与发展,2017(5):30-41.
[21]高书国.第二次“人口红利”的内涵及其影响——基于全国第六次人口普查数据分析[J].天津电大学报,2014(2):1-5.
[22]吕宏玉.二次人口红利促进我国经济增长的动力、内涵和机制[J].商业时代,2014(20):39-40.
[23]陈捷.老龄化时代如何延续“第二次人口红利”[J].学术评论,2014(6):30-35.
[24]廖理,王正位.以创业型经济打造第二次人口红利[J].清华金融评论,2014(11):21-27.
[25]田硕,赵佳静.带动我国制造产业再发展的第二次人口红利[J].商界论坛,2015(37):276.
[26]孙明英,冯增俊.二次人口红利视域下高等教育服务新型城镇化探析[J].高教探索,2015(2):26-31
[27]孙成.开发第二次人口红利及对经济增长影响机制[J].科技经济市场,2016(5):43-44.
[28]王春光.新生代农村流动人口的社会认同与城乡融合的关系[J].社会学研究,2001(3):63-76.
[29]刘传江.新生代农民工的特点、挑战与市民化[J].人口研究,2010(2):34-39.
[30]朱宇,刘爽.中国第二次人口红利的潜在助力——基于养老保险基金的绿色投资可行性探讨[J].郑州大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(3):72-77.
[2] Bloom D. Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia[J].The World Bank Economic Review,1998(12):419-455.
[3] Mason A,Lee R. Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries:Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend[J]. Genus,2004(2):11-35.
[4] Lee R,MASON A. Population Aging and the Generational Economy–A Global Perspective[M]. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2011b.
[5] Mason A. Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developed and Developing Countries[J]. Bush,2005:1-30.
[6] Mason A,Lee R,Jiang J X. Demographic Dividends,Human Capital,and Saving[J]. J Econ Ageing,2016(7):106-122.
[7] Prskawetz A,Sambt J. Economic Support Ratios and the First and Second Demographic Dividend in Europe[J]. Demographic Research,2014(1):963-1010.
[8] Jorgensen O H. Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazil[J].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2011:1-34.
[9] Guest R. Population Ageing and Productivity:A Survey with Implications for New Zealand[J].New Zealand Economic Papers,2014(2):153-168.
[10] Abio G,Patxot C,Sanchez-Romero M,Souto G. The Welfare State and the Demographic Dividend:A Cross-country Comparison[J]. UB Economics Working Papers,2015:3-51.
[11] Abio G,Patxot C,Sanchez-Romero M,Souto G. The Welfare State and Demographic Dividends[J].Demographic Research,2017(36):1453-1490
[12]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J].经济研究,2010(4):4-13.
[13]蔡昉.未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓[J].中国人口科学,2009(1):2-10.
[14]王颖,邓博文,王建民.第二次人口红利:概念、产生机制及研究展望[J].经济与管理研究,2016(2):12-20.
[15]陈晶,黄险峰,冯志.亚洲国家(地区)人口年龄结构变化对储蓄率的影响研究——基于HW模型对中国“第二次人口红利”的分析[J].经济经纬,2014(5):62-67.
[16]陈纪平.我国老龄化进程中的第二人口红利:理论与实证[J].西北人口,2017(4):28-23.
[17]李超,罗润东.老龄化、预防动机与家庭储蓄率——对中国第二次人口红利的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2018(2):104-113.
[18]孟令国.二次人口红利视角下弹性退休制度对养老保险的影响[J].经济经纬,2015(3):138-143.
[19]耿志祥,孙祁祥.人口老龄化、延迟退休与第二次人口红利[J].金融研究,2017(1):52-68.
[20]刘渝琳,李宜航.延迟退休年龄是否会带来二次人口红利[J].人口与发展,2017(5):30-41.
[21]高书国.第二次“人口红利”的内涵及其影响——基于全国第六次人口普查数据分析[J].天津电大学报,2014(2):1-5.
[22]吕宏玉.二次人口红利促进我国经济增长的动力、内涵和机制[J].商业时代,2014(20):39-40.
[23]陈捷.老龄化时代如何延续“第二次人口红利”[J].学术评论,2014(6):30-35.
[24]廖理,王正位.以创业型经济打造第二次人口红利[J].清华金融评论,2014(11):21-27.
[25]田硕,赵佳静.带动我国制造产业再发展的第二次人口红利[J].商界论坛,2015(37):276.
[26]孙明英,冯增俊.二次人口红利视域下高等教育服务新型城镇化探析[J].高教探索,2015(2):26-31
[27]孙成.开发第二次人口红利及对经济增长影响机制[J].科技经济市场,2016(5):43-44.
[28]王春光.新生代农村流动人口的社会认同与城乡融合的关系[J].社会学研究,2001(3):63-76.
[29]刘传江.新生代农民工的特点、挑战与市民化[J].人口研究,2010(2):34-39.
[30]朱宇,刘爽.中国第二次人口红利的潜在助力——基于养老保险基金的绿色投资可行性探讨[J].郑州大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(3):72-77.