中国近10年来的生育水平与趋势
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摘要
文章利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,通过总和生育率、递进总和生育率、内在总和生育率和队列生育率的估计和对比,分析中国近10年来的生育水平及变化趋势。估计结果表明,10年间总和生育率、递进总和生育率、内在总和生育率的均值分别为1.65、 1.67、1.74。这3个指标逐步消除影响生育率的进度效应,从而使测量结果不断接近实际生育水平。同时,35岁以上队列妇女的累计或终身生育率均高于1.6。文章认为中国近期的生育水平基本处于1.6以上,全面两孩政策又进一步显著提升了生育水平。另外,分孩次结果显示,近年来一孩总和生育率的下降主要反映了妇女婚育年龄推迟的进度效应;二孩总和生育率的上升则很大程度上是全面两孩政策带来的生育堆积效应。
Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper evaluates China's fertility levels and trends in the decade preceding the survey by adopting and comparing multiple fertility measures, including total fertility rate(TFR), parity progression-based total fertility rate(PPTFR), intrinsic total fertility rate(ITFR) and lifetime fertility rate(LFR). The results show that the average of TFR, PPTFR and ITFR over the past decade in China stands at around 1.65, 1.67 and 1.74 respectively. PPTFR and ITFR provide increasingly better estimations of the actual fertility by controlling the tempo effects in TFR. The lifetime fertility rate of cohort aged 35 and above is over 1.6 and increasing with age. Based on the multiple estimations, our main conclusion is that China's recent fertility level is above 1.6, and the implementation of the two-child policy has significantly increased the fertility level. Reduction in the TFR for first birth is largely driven by the tempo effect of delayed age at marriage and birth, while the marked increase in the TFR for second birth reflects the birth-bunching effect due to the newly implemented two-child policy.
Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper evaluates China's fertility levels and trends in the decade preceding the survey by adopting and comparing multiple fertility measures, including total fertility rate(TFR), parity progression-based total fertility rate(PPTFR), intrinsic total fertility rate(ITFR) and lifetime fertility rate(LFR). The results show that the average of TFR, PPTFR and ITFR over the past decade in China stands at around 1.65, 1.67 and 1.74 respectively. PPTFR and ITFR provide increasingly better estimations of the actual fertility by controlling the tempo effects in TFR. The lifetime fertility rate of cohort aged 35 and above is over 1.6 and increasing with age. Based on the multiple estimations, our main conclusion is that China's recent fertility level is above 1.6, and the implementation of the two-child policy has significantly increased the fertility level. Reduction in the TFR for first birth is largely driven by the tempo effect of delayed age at marriage and birth, while the marked increase in the TFR for second birth reflects the birth-bunching effect due to the newly implemented two-child policy.
引文
1 Bongaarts, J. and Feeney, G. 1998. On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Population and Development Review 2: 271-291.
2 Feeney,G.1983. Population Dynamics Based on Birth Intervals and Parity Progression. Population Studies 1: 75-89.
3 Feeney, G. and Yu, J. 1987. Period Parity Progression Measures of Fertility in China. Population Studies 1: 77-102.
4 McDonald, P. and Kippen, R. 2007. The Intrinsic Total Fertility Rate: A New Approach to the Measurement of Fertility. Population Association of America, New York.
5 Rallu, J.L. and Toulemon, L. 1994. Period Fertility Measures: The Construction of Different Indices and Their Application to France, 1946-89. Population an English Selection: 59-93.
6 陈卫, 高爽.中国生育率转变中的数量和进度效应. 人口研究, 2013; 3: 11-28Chen Wei and Gao Shuang. 2013. Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China. Population Research 3: 11-28.
7 陈卫, 杨胜慧.中国2010年总和生育率的再估计. 人口研究, 2014; 6: 16-24 Chen Wei and Yang Shenghui. 2014. China’s Fertility in 2010: An Indirect Estimation Using Brass P/F Ratio Method. Population Research 6:16-24.
8 崔红艳, 徐岚, 李睿.对2010年人口普查数据准确性的估计. 人口研究, 2013; 1: 10-21Cui Hongyan, Xu Lan and Li Rui. 2013. An Evaluation of Data Accuracy of the 2010 Population Census of China. Population Research 1: 10-21.
9 顾宝昌, 蔡泳, 陈友华, 陈卫. 再论中国生育水平. 人口研究, 2009; 4: 22-43 Gu Baochang,Cai Yong, Chen Youhua and Chen Wei. 2009. A Rediscussion on Ferility in China. Population Research 4: 22-43.
10 郭志刚.中国90年代的生育水平分析——多测量指标的比较. 中国人口科学, 2000a; 4: 11-18 Guo Zhigang. 2000a. Fertility Level of China in the 1990s: An Analysis Based on Mutiple Indexes.Chinese Journal of Population Science 4: 11-18.
11 郭志刚.从近年来的时期生育行为看终身生育水平——中国生育数据的去进度效应总和生育率的研究. 人口研究, 2000b; 1: 7-18Guo Zhigang.2000b. Lifetime Fertility of Chinese Women: A Look at the Recent Period Fertility Behavior. Population Research 1: 7-18.
12 郭志刚.总和生育率的内在缺陷及其改进. 人口研究, 2002; 5: 24-28Guo Zhigang.2002. The Inner Imperfection and Improvement of Total Fertility Rate. Population Research 5: 24-28.
13 郭志刚.对中国1990年代生育水平的研究与讨论. 人口研究 , 2004; 2: 10-19Guo Zhigang. 2004. A Study and Discussion on Fertility Level of China in 1990s. Population Research 2: 10-19.
14 郭志刚.六普结果表明以往人口估计和预测严重失误. 中国人口科学, 2011; 6: 2-13Guo Zhigang. 2011.2010 Population Census Data Indicates Serious Miscount in Past Popuation Estimation and Projection. Chinese Journal of Population Science 6: 2-13.
15 郝娟, 邱长溶. 2000年以来中国城乡生育水平的比较分析. 南方人口, 2011; 5: 27-33 Hao Juan and Qiu Changrong.2011. A Comparative Analysis of the Fertility of the Urban and Rural in China Since 2000. South China Population 5: 27-33.
16 郝娟, 邱长溶.对去进度效应总和生育率的检验与讨论. 人口研究, 2012; 3: 81-88Hao Juan and Qiu Changrong. 2012. Revisting the Tempo Ajusted Total Fertility Rate. Population Research 3:81-88.
17 李汉东, 李流.中国2000年以来生育水平估计. 中国人口科学, 2012; 5: 75-83 Li Handong and Li Liu. 2012. Estimating China’s Fertility Level Since 2000: Based on the 6th Population Cencus. Chinese Journal of Population Science 5: 75-83.
18 马瀛通, 王彦祖, 杨书章.递进人口发展模型的提出与总和递进指标体系的确立. 人口与经济, 1986; 2: 40-43Ma Yingtong, Wang Yanzu and Yang Shuzhang.1986. The Proposal of Progression Model of Population Development and the Establishment of Index of Parity Progression-based Total Fertility Rate. Population & Economics 2: 40-43.
19 王金营, 戈艳霞. 2010年人口普查数据质量评估以及对以往人口变动分析校正. 人口研究, 2013; 1: 22-33Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia. 2013. Assessment of 2010 Census Data Quality and Past Population Changes. Population Research 1: 22-33.
20 杨凡, 赵梦晗. 2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计. 人口研究, 2013; 2: 54-65Yang Fan and Zhao Menghan. 2013. China’s Fertility Since 2000: A Reestimation. Population Research 2: 54-65.
21 翟振武, 陈佳鞠, 李龙. 现阶段中国的总和生育率究竟是多少? ——来自户籍登记数据的新证据. 人口研究, 2015; 6: 22-34Zhai Zhenwu, Chen Jiaju and Li Long. 2015. China’s Recent Total Fertility Rate: New Evidence from the Household Registration Statistics. Population Research 6: 22-34.
22 赵梦晗. 2000～2010年中国生育水平估计. 人口研究, 2015; 5: 49-58 Zhao Menghan. 2015. An Estimation of Fertility Level in China, 2000-2010. Population Research 5: 49-58.
23 朱勤. 2000～2010年中国生育水平推算——基于“六普”数据的初步研究. 中国人口科学, 2012; 4: 68-77,112Zhu Qin. 2012. Estimation on Fertility Level in China 2000-2010:A Preliminary Study Based on the 2010 Population Census. Chinese Journal of Population Science 4: 68-77,112.
2 Feeney,G.1983. Population Dynamics Based on Birth Intervals and Parity Progression. Population Studies 1: 75-89.
3 Feeney, G. and Yu, J. 1987. Period Parity Progression Measures of Fertility in China. Population Studies 1: 77-102.
4 McDonald, P. and Kippen, R. 2007. The Intrinsic Total Fertility Rate: A New Approach to the Measurement of Fertility. Population Association of America, New York.
5 Rallu, J.L. and Toulemon, L. 1994. Period Fertility Measures: The Construction of Different Indices and Their Application to France, 1946-89. Population an English Selection: 59-93.
6 陈卫, 高爽.中国生育率转变中的数量和进度效应. 人口研究, 2013; 3: 11-28Chen Wei and Gao Shuang. 2013. Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China. Population Research 3: 11-28.
7 陈卫, 杨胜慧.中国2010年总和生育率的再估计. 人口研究, 2014; 6: 16-24 Chen Wei and Yang Shenghui. 2014. China’s Fertility in 2010: An Indirect Estimation Using Brass P/F Ratio Method. Population Research 6:16-24.
8 崔红艳, 徐岚, 李睿.对2010年人口普查数据准确性的估计. 人口研究, 2013; 1: 10-21Cui Hongyan, Xu Lan and Li Rui. 2013. An Evaluation of Data Accuracy of the 2010 Population Census of China. Population Research 1: 10-21.
9 顾宝昌, 蔡泳, 陈友华, 陈卫. 再论中国生育水平. 人口研究, 2009; 4: 22-43 Gu Baochang,Cai Yong, Chen Youhua and Chen Wei. 2009. A Rediscussion on Ferility in China. Population Research 4: 22-43.
10 郭志刚.中国90年代的生育水平分析——多测量指标的比较. 中国人口科学, 2000a; 4: 11-18 Guo Zhigang. 2000a. Fertility Level of China in the 1990s: An Analysis Based on Mutiple Indexes.Chinese Journal of Population Science 4: 11-18.
11 郭志刚.从近年来的时期生育行为看终身生育水平——中国生育数据的去进度效应总和生育率的研究. 人口研究, 2000b; 1: 7-18Guo Zhigang.2000b. Lifetime Fertility of Chinese Women: A Look at the Recent Period Fertility Behavior. Population Research 1: 7-18.
12 郭志刚.总和生育率的内在缺陷及其改进. 人口研究, 2002; 5: 24-28Guo Zhigang.2002. The Inner Imperfection and Improvement of Total Fertility Rate. Population Research 5: 24-28.
13 郭志刚.对中国1990年代生育水平的研究与讨论. 人口研究 , 2004; 2: 10-19Guo Zhigang. 2004. A Study and Discussion on Fertility Level of China in 1990s. Population Research 2: 10-19.
14 郭志刚.六普结果表明以往人口估计和预测严重失误. 中国人口科学, 2011; 6: 2-13Guo Zhigang. 2011.2010 Population Census Data Indicates Serious Miscount in Past Popuation Estimation and Projection. Chinese Journal of Population Science 6: 2-13.
15 郝娟, 邱长溶. 2000年以来中国城乡生育水平的比较分析. 南方人口, 2011; 5: 27-33 Hao Juan and Qiu Changrong.2011. A Comparative Analysis of the Fertility of the Urban and Rural in China Since 2000. South China Population 5: 27-33.
16 郝娟, 邱长溶.对去进度效应总和生育率的检验与讨论. 人口研究, 2012; 3: 81-88Hao Juan and Qiu Changrong. 2012. Revisting the Tempo Ajusted Total Fertility Rate. Population Research 3:81-88.
17 李汉东, 李流.中国2000年以来生育水平估计. 中国人口科学, 2012; 5: 75-83 Li Handong and Li Liu. 2012. Estimating China’s Fertility Level Since 2000: Based on the 6th Population Cencus. Chinese Journal of Population Science 5: 75-83.
18 马瀛通, 王彦祖, 杨书章.递进人口发展模型的提出与总和递进指标体系的确立. 人口与经济, 1986; 2: 40-43Ma Yingtong, Wang Yanzu and Yang Shuzhang.1986. The Proposal of Progression Model of Population Development and the Establishment of Index of Parity Progression-based Total Fertility Rate. Population & Economics 2: 40-43.
19 王金营, 戈艳霞. 2010年人口普查数据质量评估以及对以往人口变动分析校正. 人口研究, 2013; 1: 22-33Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia. 2013. Assessment of 2010 Census Data Quality and Past Population Changes. Population Research 1: 22-33.
20 杨凡, 赵梦晗. 2000年以来中国人口生育水平的估计. 人口研究, 2013; 2: 54-65Yang Fan and Zhao Menghan. 2013. China’s Fertility Since 2000: A Reestimation. Population Research 2: 54-65.
21 翟振武, 陈佳鞠, 李龙. 现阶段中国的总和生育率究竟是多少? ——来自户籍登记数据的新证据. 人口研究, 2015; 6: 22-34Zhai Zhenwu, Chen Jiaju and Li Long. 2015. China’s Recent Total Fertility Rate: New Evidence from the Household Registration Statistics. Population Research 6: 22-34.
22 赵梦晗. 2000～2010年中国生育水平估计. 人口研究, 2015; 5: 49-58 Zhao Menghan. 2015. An Estimation of Fertility Level in China, 2000-2010. Population Research 5: 49-58.
23 朱勤. 2000～2010年中国生育水平推算——基于“六普”数据的初步研究. 中国人口科学, 2012; 4: 68-77,112Zhu Qin. 2012. Estimation on Fertility Level in China 2000-2010:A Preliminary Study Based on the 2010 Population Census. Chinese Journal of Population Science 4: 68-77,112.