中国2010年分省死亡率与预期寿命——基于各省第六次人口普查资料
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摘要
分省死亡率研究能更准确地描述我国人口的死亡模式,度量区域之间的差异。由于基础数据的缺乏,目前对分省死亡率和预期寿命的研究还不够充分。文章系统整理了我国大陆31个省(市、区)的"六普"资料,获取了分省、分性别、分城乡的年龄别死亡数据。利用妇幼卫生监测系统分县数据,修正了5岁以下儿童死亡率,利用Kannisto模型修正了高龄人口死亡率,并通过与日本1960～2010年的单岁组死亡率比较,对各省的老年死亡率进行再修正。最后,文章测算出分省、分性别、分城乡的0岁、60岁和80岁组预期寿命,并按照长寿与城乡差异水平将死亡模式分为5类。结果显示,"六普"时期我国0岁组预期寿命为74.85岁,60岁组为19.44岁,80岁组为6.90岁;各省农村人口预期寿命的差异明显。
Province-level mortality rates provide better indicators to describe the mortality pattern and its geographical differences than national level data. However, the limited data availability has made it hard to conduct research on province-level mortality and life expectancy. This paper employs age-and gender-specific mortality data, categorized by residential status(urban/rural), from the 6 th Census. In its analysis, the paper uses China National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System(MCHS) data to modify the Under 5 Mortality Rate(U5 MR); applies Kannisto model to revise the mortality data of the oldest old people; and revised the mortality data for the elderly based on the comparison with Japan's historical data from 1960 to 2010. In doing so, we are able to calculate life expectancy categorized by province, gender, and residential status, providing five mortality patterns according to longevity and urban-rural divide. The results show that in 2010, life expectancies at birth, 60 and 80 were 74.85, 19.44 and 6.90 respectively and that the variance of life expectancy in rural areas was bigger than that in urban areas.
Province-level mortality rates provide better indicators to describe the mortality pattern and its geographical differences than national level data. However, the limited data availability has made it hard to conduct research on province-level mortality and life expectancy. This paper employs age-and gender-specific mortality data, categorized by residential status(urban/rural), from the 6 th Census. In its analysis, the paper uses China National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System(MCHS) data to modify the Under 5 Mortality Rate(U5 MR); applies Kannisto model to revise the mortality data of the oldest old people; and revised the mortality data for the elderly based on the comparison with Japan's historical data from 1960 to 2010. In doing so, we are able to calculate life expectancy categorized by province, gender, and residential status, providing five mortality patterns according to longevity and urban-rural divide. The results show that in 2010, life expectancies at birth, 60 and 80 were 74.85, 19.44 and 6.90 respectively and that the variance of life expectancy in rural areas was bigger than that in urban areas.
引文
1 崔红艳,徐岚,李睿.对2010年人口普查数据准确性的估计.人口研究,2013; 1: 10-21Cui Hongyan, XuLan and Li Rui.2013. An Evaluation of Data Accuracy of the 2010 Population Census of China. Poulation Research 1:10-21.
2 段白鸽,石磊.我国高龄人口死亡率减速:偏差还是事实.统计研究,2015; 9: 56-67Duan Baige and Shi Lei.2015. Deceleration in the Age Pattern of Old-age Mortality Rates in China: Biases or Facts. Statistical Research 9: 56-67.
3 国家卫生和计划生育委员会.2013中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴. 中国协和医科大学出版社,2013:232National Health and Family Planning Commission. 2013. 2013 China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook. Peking Union Medical College Press: 232.
4 郝虹生,E·阿瑞葛, J·班尼斯特. 中国分省死亡率分析. 人口研究, 1988; 4: 1-10Hao Hongsheng, Arriaga E and Banister J.1988. An Analysis of Provincial Mortality of China. Population Research 4:1-10.
5 黄荣清, 曾宪新. “六普”报告的婴儿死亡率误差和实际水平的估计. 人口研究, 2013; 2: 3-16Huang Rongqing and Zeng Xianxin.2013. Infant Mortality Reported in the 2010 Census: Bias and Adjustment. Population Research 2:3-16.
6 蒋正华.中国人口动态参数的识别.中国人口科学,1987; 1:56-63Jiang Zhenghua.1987.Dynamic Parameter Identification for China’s Population. China Population Science 1:56-63.
7 李成,米红,孙凌雪.利用DCMD模型生命表系统对“六普”数据中死亡漏报的估计.人口研究,2018; 2: 99-112Li Cheng, Mi Hong and Sun Lingxue.2018. The Estimation of Death Underreporting in the 2010 Population Census Based on DCMD Model Life Tables. Population Research 2: 99-112.
8 李建新,刘瑞平,张莉.中国城乡生命表编制方法探析.中国人口科学,2018; 3: 62-72,127Li Jianxin, Liu Ruiping and Zhang Li.2018. Methodology of Constructing China’s Life Table by Urban and Rural Areas. Chinese Journal of Population Science 3:62-72,127.
9 路磊, 郝虹生, 高凌. 1990年中国分省简略生命表. 人口研究, 1994; 6: 61-64Lu Lei, Hao Hongsheng and Gao Ling.1994. China’s Abridged Life Table by Province in 1990. Population Research 6: 61-64.
10 米红, 杨明旭. 总和生育率、出生性别比的修正与评估研究——基于1982～2010年历次人口普查、1%抽样调查数据. 人口与发展, 2016; 2: 12-19Mi Hong and Yang Mingxu. 2016. Reassessment of the Under-Reporting Rate of the Total Fertility Rate and Sex Ratio at Birth: Based on the National Census and 1% Sample Survey Data during 1982-2010. Population and Development 2:12-19.
11 人民网. 马建堂:第六次全国人口普查经费近80亿,普查工作人员近千万人. 2011-11-23,详见http://news.cntv.cn/20111123/116571.shtmlPeople’s Daily. 2011. Ma Jiantang: The Sixth National Population Census Cost Nearly 8 Billion Yuan and Employed Nearly 10 Million People. Nov. 23th.
12 舒星宇, 温勇, 宗占红, 周建芳. 对我国人口平均预期寿命的间接估算及评价——基于第六次全国人口普查数据. 人口学刊, 2014; 5:18-24Shu Xingyu,Wen Yong, Zong Zhanhong and Zhou Jianfang.2014. Indirect Estimation and Evaluation of China’s Life Expectancy. Population Journal 5:18-24.
13 宋健, 张洋. 婴儿死亡漏报对平均预期寿命的影响及区域差异. 人口研究, 2015; 3:18-33Song Jian and Zhang Yang.2015. Impacts of Infant Death Under-Reporting On Life Expectancy and Their Regional Disparities. Population Research 3:18-33.
14 王金营, 戈艳霞. 2010年人口普查数据质量评估以及对以往人口变动分析校正. 人口研究, 2013; 1: 22-33Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia.2013. Assessment of 2010 Census Data Quality and Past Population Changes. Population Research 1: 22-33.
15 王金营. 1990年以来中国人口寿命水平和死亡模式的再估计. 人口研究, 2013;4: 3-18Wang Jinying.2013. Trends in Life Expectancies and Mortality Patterns in China since 1990: A Further Examination and Analysis.Population Research 4: 3-18.
16 王静龙.把编制中国的生命表提到日程上来.上海保险,1996; 1: 22Wang Jinglong.1996.On the Urgent Need to Construct China’s Life Table. Shanghai Insurance 1996; 1:22.
17 虞慧婷,杨青,靳文正,韩明,蔡任之,钱耐思,王春芳.2015. 2004～2013年上海市婴儿死亡状况及人群差异分析.中国妇幼保健,2015;25:4257-4260Yu Huiting, Yang Qing, Jin Wenzheng, Han Ming, Cai Renzhi, Qian Naisi and Wang Chunfang. 2015.The Differences Analysis for the Infant Mortality of Shanghai from 2004-2013. Maternal and Child Health Care of China 25: 4257-4260.
18 翟振武, 路磊. 中国1988～1987年分省简略生命表. 人口研究, 1989; 4: 62-64Zhai Zhenwu and Lu Lei. 1989. 1988-1987 China’s Abridged Life Table by Province. Population Research 4: 62-64.
19 张菊英, 吴涛, 张强. 我国各省市死亡水平分析. 四川大学学报(医学版), 2004; 3:432-433Zhang Juying, Wu Tao and Zhang Qiang. 2004. Analysis on China’s Mortality level by Province. Journal of Sichuan University (Medical Science Edition) 3: 432-433.
20 赵梦晗, 杨凡. 六普数据中婴儿死亡率及儿童死亡概率的质疑与评估. 人口研究, 2013; 5: 68-80Zhao Menghan and Yang Fan.2013. Infant Mortality and Under-five Mortality Rate in China’s 2010 Census: An Assessment. Population Research 5:68-80.
21 周脉耕, 李镒冲, 王海东,曾新颖,王黎君,刘世炜,刘韫宁,梁晓峰. 1990～2015年中国分省期望寿命和健康期望寿命分析. 中华流行病学杂志, 2016; 11: 1439-1443Zhou Maigeng, Li Yichong,Wang Haidong, Zeng Xinying, Wang Lijun, Liu Shiwei, Liu Yunning and Liang Xiaofeng. 2016. Analysis on Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy in China, 1990-2015. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 11:1439-1443.
22 曾毅, 金沃泊. 中国高龄死亡模式及其与瑞典、日本的比较分析. 人口与经济, 2004;3: 8-16Zeng Yi and Vaupel J.W. 2004. Chinese Oldest Old Mortality and Its Comparison with Sweden and Japan. Population and Economics 3: 8-16.
23 Coale A.J, Demeny P. and Vaughan P. 2013. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations: Studies in Population. Elsevier.
24 Murray C.J.L, FergusonB.D, Lopez A.D, Guillot M, Salomon J.A and Ahmad O. 2003. Modified Logit Life Table System: Principles, Empirical Validation, and Application. Population Studies 2: 165-182.
25 Wang H, Liddell C.A, Coates M.M, Mooney M.D, Levitz C.E, Schumacher A.E and Sandar L, et al. 2014. Global, Regional, and National Levels of Neonatal, Infant, and Under-5 Mortality during 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet 384: 957-979.
26 Lee R. 2000. The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications. North American Actuarial Journal 1: 80-91.
27 Horiuchi S and Wilmoth J.R. 1998. Deceleration in the Age Pattern of Mortality at Older Ages. Demography 4: 391-412.
28 United Nations, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.1982. Model Life Tables for Developing Countries. United Nations Publication.
29 Wrigley F.E. 2014. Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model. Demography 1: 51-71.
30 Wang Y, Li X, Zhou M, Luo S, Liang J, Liddell C.A and Kang C, et al. 2016. Under-5 Mortality in 2851 Chinese Counties, 1996-2012: A Subnational Assessment of Achieving MDG 4 Goals in China. The Lancet 387: 273-283.
(1)联合国人口发展前景报告数据库:https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/。
(2)本研究的基础数据为普查资料中的年龄别中心死亡率mx(全年死亡人口数除以年中平均人口数)。在编制生命表及测算预期寿命时,利用JPOP1算法(蒋正华,1987)将中心死亡率转化为死亡概率qx(年初存活人口在未来1年内死亡的概率)。在本文表述中,除非有专门标记,死亡率指代中心死亡率,预期寿命指代0岁预期寿命。在下文绘制的死亡曲线图中,统一使用死亡概率(经Logit变换)。
(3)GBD官网:http://www.healthdata.org/。在GBD研究中,中国人口死亡数据来自于中国疾病监测点系统(Disease Surveillance Point System, DSPs)、中国妇幼卫生监测系统(China National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System,MCHS)、中国疾病预防控制中心(Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,CDC)死因登记报告信息系统以及全国肿瘤登记系统。
(4)MCHS系统官网:http://www.mchscn.org/。
(5)寇尔德曼模型生命表第一版出版于1966年,在192张实际生命表的基础上建立起来,按不同的死亡水平和模式进行分类,当时设定的极限年龄为80岁,各生命表中预期寿命最大值为77.5岁。寇尔德曼模型生命表第二版在1983出版(2013年由Elsevier出版社再次印刷),是基于326张不同国家和地区的生命表构建,其中亚洲仅有32张,且1945年之后的仅16张,第二版中极限年龄调整为100岁,预期寿命最大值为80岁。寇尔德曼模型生命表包含4个系列的生命表,分别为东、南、西、北模型生命表。联合国发展中国家模型生命表1982年版本根据发展中国家不同时期(1920～1976年)的死亡率统计数据,做出了72张生命表(亚洲11张),并将其归为5类:拉美模式、智利模式、南亚模式、远东模式和一般模式。
(6)Abridged Life Tables : https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Mortality/。
(7)Human Mortality Database: http://www.mortality.org/。
(8)数据源自国家统计局年度数据库:http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01。
(9)数据源自联合国儿童基金会数据库: https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/under-five-mortality/。
(10)在估算出U5MR后,依据日本和台湾地区历史年份中0～4岁的各单岁组死亡概率之间的相对比率关系推算出0～4岁各单岁组的死亡概率,即将U5MR分解为0～4岁单岁组死亡概率。
2 段白鸽,石磊.我国高龄人口死亡率减速:偏差还是事实.统计研究,2015; 9: 56-67Duan Baige and Shi Lei.2015. Deceleration in the Age Pattern of Old-age Mortality Rates in China: Biases or Facts. Statistical Research 9: 56-67.
3 国家卫生和计划生育委员会.2013中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴. 中国协和医科大学出版社,2013:232National Health and Family Planning Commission. 2013. 2013 China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook. Peking Union Medical College Press: 232.
4 郝虹生,E·阿瑞葛, J·班尼斯特. 中国分省死亡率分析. 人口研究, 1988; 4: 1-10Hao Hongsheng, Arriaga E and Banister J.1988. An Analysis of Provincial Mortality of China. Population Research 4:1-10.
5 黄荣清, 曾宪新. “六普”报告的婴儿死亡率误差和实际水平的估计. 人口研究, 2013; 2: 3-16Huang Rongqing and Zeng Xianxin.2013. Infant Mortality Reported in the 2010 Census: Bias and Adjustment. Population Research 2:3-16.
6 蒋正华.中国人口动态参数的识别.中国人口科学,1987; 1:56-63Jiang Zhenghua.1987.Dynamic Parameter Identification for China’s Population. China Population Science 1:56-63.
7 李成,米红,孙凌雪.利用DCMD模型生命表系统对“六普”数据中死亡漏报的估计.人口研究,2018; 2: 99-112Li Cheng, Mi Hong and Sun Lingxue.2018. The Estimation of Death Underreporting in the 2010 Population Census Based on DCMD Model Life Tables. Population Research 2: 99-112.
8 李建新,刘瑞平,张莉.中国城乡生命表编制方法探析.中国人口科学,2018; 3: 62-72,127Li Jianxin, Liu Ruiping and Zhang Li.2018. Methodology of Constructing China’s Life Table by Urban and Rural Areas. Chinese Journal of Population Science 3:62-72,127.
9 路磊, 郝虹生, 高凌. 1990年中国分省简略生命表. 人口研究, 1994; 6: 61-64Lu Lei, Hao Hongsheng and Gao Ling.1994. China’s Abridged Life Table by Province in 1990. Population Research 6: 61-64.
10 米红, 杨明旭. 总和生育率、出生性别比的修正与评估研究——基于1982～2010年历次人口普查、1%抽样调查数据. 人口与发展, 2016; 2: 12-19Mi Hong and Yang Mingxu. 2016. Reassessment of the Under-Reporting Rate of the Total Fertility Rate and Sex Ratio at Birth: Based on the National Census and 1% Sample Survey Data during 1982-2010. Population and Development 2:12-19.
11 人民网. 马建堂:第六次全国人口普查经费近80亿,普查工作人员近千万人. 2011-11-23,详见http://news.cntv.cn/20111123/116571.shtmlPeople’s Daily. 2011. Ma Jiantang: The Sixth National Population Census Cost Nearly 8 Billion Yuan and Employed Nearly 10 Million People. Nov. 23th.
12 舒星宇, 温勇, 宗占红, 周建芳. 对我国人口平均预期寿命的间接估算及评价——基于第六次全国人口普查数据. 人口学刊, 2014; 5:18-24Shu Xingyu,Wen Yong, Zong Zhanhong and Zhou Jianfang.2014. Indirect Estimation and Evaluation of China’s Life Expectancy. Population Journal 5:18-24.
13 宋健, 张洋. 婴儿死亡漏报对平均预期寿命的影响及区域差异. 人口研究, 2015; 3:18-33Song Jian and Zhang Yang.2015. Impacts of Infant Death Under-Reporting On Life Expectancy and Their Regional Disparities. Population Research 3:18-33.
14 王金营, 戈艳霞. 2010年人口普查数据质量评估以及对以往人口变动分析校正. 人口研究, 2013; 1: 22-33Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia.2013. Assessment of 2010 Census Data Quality and Past Population Changes. Population Research 1: 22-33.
15 王金营. 1990年以来中国人口寿命水平和死亡模式的再估计. 人口研究, 2013;4: 3-18Wang Jinying.2013. Trends in Life Expectancies and Mortality Patterns in China since 1990: A Further Examination and Analysis.Population Research 4: 3-18.
16 王静龙.把编制中国的生命表提到日程上来.上海保险,1996; 1: 22Wang Jinglong.1996.On the Urgent Need to Construct China’s Life Table. Shanghai Insurance 1996; 1:22.
17 虞慧婷,杨青,靳文正,韩明,蔡任之,钱耐思,王春芳.2015. 2004～2013年上海市婴儿死亡状况及人群差异分析.中国妇幼保健,2015;25:4257-4260Yu Huiting, Yang Qing, Jin Wenzheng, Han Ming, Cai Renzhi, Qian Naisi and Wang Chunfang. 2015.The Differences Analysis for the Infant Mortality of Shanghai from 2004-2013. Maternal and Child Health Care of China 25: 4257-4260.
18 翟振武, 路磊. 中国1988～1987年分省简略生命表. 人口研究, 1989; 4: 62-64Zhai Zhenwu and Lu Lei. 1989. 1988-1987 China’s Abridged Life Table by Province. Population Research 4: 62-64.
19 张菊英, 吴涛, 张强. 我国各省市死亡水平分析. 四川大学学报(医学版), 2004; 3:432-433Zhang Juying, Wu Tao and Zhang Qiang. 2004. Analysis on China’s Mortality level by Province. Journal of Sichuan University (Medical Science Edition) 3: 432-433.
20 赵梦晗, 杨凡. 六普数据中婴儿死亡率及儿童死亡概率的质疑与评估. 人口研究, 2013; 5: 68-80Zhao Menghan and Yang Fan.2013. Infant Mortality and Under-five Mortality Rate in China’s 2010 Census: An Assessment. Population Research 5:68-80.
21 周脉耕, 李镒冲, 王海东,曾新颖,王黎君,刘世炜,刘韫宁,梁晓峰. 1990～2015年中国分省期望寿命和健康期望寿命分析. 中华流行病学杂志, 2016; 11: 1439-1443Zhou Maigeng, Li Yichong,Wang Haidong, Zeng Xinying, Wang Lijun, Liu Shiwei, Liu Yunning and Liang Xiaofeng. 2016. Analysis on Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy in China, 1990-2015. Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 11:1439-1443.
22 曾毅, 金沃泊. 中国高龄死亡模式及其与瑞典、日本的比较分析. 人口与经济, 2004;3: 8-16Zeng Yi and Vaupel J.W. 2004. Chinese Oldest Old Mortality and Its Comparison with Sweden and Japan. Population and Economics 3: 8-16.
23 Coale A.J, Demeny P. and Vaughan P. 2013. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations: Studies in Population. Elsevier.
24 Murray C.J.L, FergusonB.D, Lopez A.D, Guillot M, Salomon J.A and Ahmad O. 2003. Modified Logit Life Table System: Principles, Empirical Validation, and Application. Population Studies 2: 165-182.
25 Wang H, Liddell C.A, Coates M.M, Mooney M.D, Levitz C.E, Schumacher A.E and Sandar L, et al. 2014. Global, Regional, and National Levels of Neonatal, Infant, and Under-5 Mortality during 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. The Lancet 384: 957-979.
26 Lee R. 2000. The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications. North American Actuarial Journal 1: 80-91.
27 Horiuchi S and Wilmoth J.R. 1998. Deceleration in the Age Pattern of Mortality at Older Ages. Demography 4: 391-412.
28 United Nations, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.1982. Model Life Tables for Developing Countries. United Nations Publication.
29 Wrigley F.E. 2014. Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model. Demography 1: 51-71.
30 Wang Y, Li X, Zhou M, Luo S, Liang J, Liddell C.A and Kang C, et al. 2016. Under-5 Mortality in 2851 Chinese Counties, 1996-2012: A Subnational Assessment of Achieving MDG 4 Goals in China. The Lancet 387: 273-283.
(1)联合国人口发展前景报告数据库:https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/。
(2)本研究的基础数据为普查资料中的年龄别中心死亡率mx(全年死亡人口数除以年中平均人口数)。在编制生命表及测算预期寿命时,利用JPOP1算法(蒋正华,1987)将中心死亡率转化为死亡概率qx(年初存活人口在未来1年内死亡的概率)。在本文表述中,除非有专门标记,死亡率指代中心死亡率,预期寿命指代0岁预期寿命。在下文绘制的死亡曲线图中,统一使用死亡概率(经Logit变换)。
(3)GBD官网:http://www.healthdata.org/。在GBD研究中,中国人口死亡数据来自于中国疾病监测点系统(Disease Surveillance Point System, DSPs)、中国妇幼卫生监测系统(China National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System,MCHS)、中国疾病预防控制中心(Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,CDC)死因登记报告信息系统以及全国肿瘤登记系统。
(4)MCHS系统官网:http://www.mchscn.org/。
(5)寇尔德曼模型生命表第一版出版于1966年,在192张实际生命表的基础上建立起来,按不同的死亡水平和模式进行分类,当时设定的极限年龄为80岁,各生命表中预期寿命最大值为77.5岁。寇尔德曼模型生命表第二版在1983出版(2013年由Elsevier出版社再次印刷),是基于326张不同国家和地区的生命表构建,其中亚洲仅有32张,且1945年之后的仅16张,第二版中极限年龄调整为100岁,预期寿命最大值为80岁。寇尔德曼模型生命表包含4个系列的生命表,分别为东、南、西、北模型生命表。联合国发展中国家模型生命表1982年版本根据发展中国家不同时期(1920～1976年)的死亡率统计数据,做出了72张生命表(亚洲11张),并将其归为5类:拉美模式、智利模式、南亚模式、远东模式和一般模式。
(6)Abridged Life Tables : https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Mortality/。
(7)Human Mortality Database: http://www.mortality.org/。
(8)数据源自国家统计局年度数据库:http://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01。
(9)数据源自联合国儿童基金会数据库: https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-survival/under-five-mortality/。
(10)在估算出U5MR后,依据日本和台湾地区历史年份中0～4岁的各单岁组死亡概率之间的相对比率关系推算出0～4岁各单岁组的死亡概率,即将U5MR分解为0～4岁单岁组死亡概率。