中国海洋经济增长驱动要素的时空差异
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摘要
为明确海洋经济增长及其驱动要素的时空差异,文章借鉴经济增长理论和相关研究,构建海洋经济增长驱动要素定量测度指标体系,借助集对分析法计算各驱动要素得分,在此基础上运用LMDI方法对2000—2015年海洋经济增长驱动要素贡献度进行测度分析,研究发现:①2000—2015年中国海洋经济生产总值逐年上升,海洋经济增长变化存在空间差异。②资本要素始终是中国海洋经济增长的主要推动力,资源要素对海洋经济增长的驱动力减弱,除2006—2009年外,结构要素和创新要素均推动海洋经济增长,但前者在整体影响结构中所占份额相对较小,制度要素对海洋经济增长的贡献量保持正负交替演变的态势。③不同驱动要素对各省和各类型区的海洋经济增长贡献量存在空间差异。创新、结构和制度要素分别对落后增长区、积极增长区和问题增长区海洋经济增长的贡献度更大,资本和资源要素对落后增长区的贡献度最小。
To clarify the spatial and temporal difference of the marine economic growth and its driving factors, the article draws on the theory of economic growth and related research to construct a quantitative measurement index system for the driving factors of marine economic growth. Using the set pair analysis method and the LMDI method to measure the contribution of driving factors in marine economic growth drivers from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that: 1) In 2000-2015 gross output of China marine economy is increasing each year, and there are spatial differences in the growth and changes of the marine economy. 2)Capital factor is always the main driving factor of marine economic growth in China,and the driving force of the resource factor on marine economic growth has weakened. In addition to the 2006-2009,structural factor and innovative factor have been driving the marine economic growth, but the former impact in the overall structure is relatively small. The contribution of institutional factor to the growth of the marine economy maintains a positive and negative alternate evolution. 3)There are spatial differences in the contribution of different driving factors to the economic growth of various provinces and regions. Innovative, structural and institutional factors have a greater contribution to the inferior growth, optimal growth problem-growth area, capital and resource factors have a large role in promoting the growth of the marine economy in the inferior growth region.
To clarify the spatial and temporal difference of the marine economic growth and its driving factors, the article draws on the theory of economic growth and related research to construct a quantitative measurement index system for the driving factors of marine economic growth. Using the set pair analysis method and the LMDI method to measure the contribution of driving factors in marine economic growth drivers from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that: 1) In 2000-2015 gross output of China marine economy is increasing each year, and there are spatial differences in the growth and changes of the marine economy. 2)Capital factor is always the main driving factor of marine economic growth in China,and the driving force of the resource factor on marine economic growth has weakened. In addition to the 2006-2009,structural factor and innovative factor have been driving the marine economic growth, but the former impact in the overall structure is relatively small. The contribution of institutional factor to the growth of the marine economy maintains a positive and negative alternate evolution. 3)There are spatial differences in the contribution of different driving factors to the economic growth of various provinces and regions. Innovative, structural and institutional factors have a greater contribution to the inferior growth, optimal growth problem-growth area, capital and resource factors have a large role in promoting the growth of the marine economy in the inferior growth region.
引文
[1]李敏纳,蔡舒,张慧蓉,等.要素禀赋与黄河流域经济空间分异研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(1):14-20.
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[13]黄瑞芬,雷晓.要素投入对我国海洋经济增长的效应分析——基于广义C-D生产函数与岭回归分析方法[J].中国渔业经济,2013,31(6):118-122.
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[16]王泽宇,张震,韩增林,等.区域海洋经济对国家海洋战略的响应测度[J].资源科学,2016,38(10):1 832-1 845.
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[18]俞立平.我国金融与海洋经济互动关系的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2013(10):121-124.
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[20]狄乾斌,刘欣欣,王萌.我国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长贡献的时空差异研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):98-103.
[21]王泽宇,卢雪凤,孙才志,等.中国海洋经济重心演变及影响要素[J].经济地理,2017,37(5):12-19.
[22]彭宇飞,马全党.中国海洋经济发展差异及影响要素分析[J].统计与决策,2017(15):142-145.
[23]谢杰,李鹏.中国海洋经济发展时空特征与地理集聚驱动要素[J].经济地理,2017,37(7):20-26.
[24]王泽宇,张震,韩增林,等.新常态背景下中国海洋经济质量与规模的协调性分析[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(6):1-7.
[25]刘家学.对指标属性有偏好信息的一种决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999(2):55-58.
[26]王泽宇,郭萌雨,韩增林.基于集对分析的海洋综合实力评价研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(2):351-360.
[27]苏飞,张平宇.基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):454-464.
[28]于江波,王晓芳.经济增长驱动要素在空间与时间两维度的动态演变轨迹[J].经济与管理研究,2015,36(5):3-12.
[29]郭玉晶,宋林.民营经济增长驱动要素特征及其时空演变轨迹——基于供给侧要素配置视角[J].商业经济与管理,2016(4):15-27.
[2] Smith A. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations[M]. Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1776.
[3] Marshall A. Principles of Economics[M]. London:The Macmillan Press,1961.
[4] Romer P. M. Growth based on increasing returns due to specialization[J]. American Economic Review,1987,77:56-62.
[5] Solow R. M. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1956,70:65-94.
[6] Kuznts,S. Economic growth and income inequality[J]. American Economic Review,1955(45):1-28.
[7]王波,韩立民.中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响——基于沿海11省份的面板门槛效应回归分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1 182-1 193.
[8]孙瑞杰,李双建.海洋经济领域投入要素贡献率的测算[J].海洋开发与管理,2011,28(7):95-99.
[9] Samonte-Tan G P B,White A T,Tercero M A,et al. Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources:Bohol Marine Triangle,Philippines[J]. Coastal Management,2007,35(2):319-338.
[10] Turek J G. Science and technology needs for marine fishery habitat restoration[C]//Oceans. IEEE, 2000.
[11] Collier T C,Mamula A,Ruggiero J. Estimation of multi-output production functions in commercial fisheries[J]. Omega,2014,42(1):157-165.
[12]马雯月.支撑我国海洋经济发展的要素分析[J].中国水运(学术版),2008(1):206-208.
[13]黄瑞芬,雷晓.要素投入对我国海洋经济增长的效应分析——基于广义C-D生产函数与岭回归分析方法[J].中国渔业经济,2013,31(6):118-122.
[14]沈金生,张杰.我国主要海洋产业发展要素的贡献测度与经济分析[J].中国海洋大学学报:社会科学版,2013(1):35-40.
[15]孙才志,郭可蒙,邹玮.中国区域海洋经济与海洋科技之间的协同与响应关系研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(11):2 017-2 029.
[16]王泽宇,张震,韩增林,等.区域海洋经济对国家海洋战略的响应测度[J].资源科学,2016,38(10):1 832-1 845.
[17]王泽宇,卢函,孙才志.中国海洋资源开发与海洋经济增长关系[J].经济地理,2017,37(11):117-126.
[18]俞立平.我国金融与海洋经济互动关系的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2013(10):121-124.
[19]于梦璇,安平.海洋产业结构调整与海洋经济增长——生产要素投入贡献率的再测算[J].太平洋学报,2016,24(5):86-93.
[20]狄乾斌,刘欣欣,王萌.我国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长贡献的时空差异研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):98-103.
[21]王泽宇,卢雪凤,孙才志,等.中国海洋经济重心演变及影响要素[J].经济地理,2017,37(5):12-19.
[22]彭宇飞,马全党.中国海洋经济发展差异及影响要素分析[J].统计与决策,2017(15):142-145.
[23]谢杰,李鹏.中国海洋经济发展时空特征与地理集聚驱动要素[J].经济地理,2017,37(7):20-26.
[24]王泽宇,张震,韩增林,等.新常态背景下中国海洋经济质量与规模的协调性分析[J].地域研究与开发,2015,34(6):1-7.
[25]刘家学.对指标属性有偏好信息的一种决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1999(2):55-58.
[26]王泽宇,郭萌雨,韩增林.基于集对分析的海洋综合实力评价研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(2):351-360.
[27]苏飞,张平宇.基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理学报,2010,65(4):454-464.
[28]于江波,王晓芳.经济增长驱动要素在空间与时间两维度的动态演变轨迹[J].经济与管理研究,2015,36(5):3-12.
[29]郭玉晶,宋林.民营经济增长驱动要素特征及其时空演变轨迹——基于供给侧要素配置视角[J].商业经济与管理,2016(4):15-27.