2000—2015年阜康林区植被覆盖变化及其对气候因子的响应
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摘要
[目的]分析阜康林区天保工程实施以来的植被覆盖变化、气温和降水变化及植被覆盖与气温和降水间的响应关系,为天保工程实施生态效益评价提供数据支持。[方法]基于2000—2015年MODIS/NDVI数据及阜康林区气温和降水数据,结合均值法、回归分析法、距平波动法和相关分析法等方法,探讨阜康林区天保工程实施以来林区内植被覆盖特征、气候变化状况及二者间的响应关系。[结果](1)2000—2015年,阜康林区植被覆盖整体处于较低水平且呈不明显的波动下降趋势。阜康林区植被覆盖在近16a变化最为明显的为NDVI>0.65部分,是阜康林区NDVI下降的主要部分;"低"和"较高"水平NDVI虽有上升但不明显,而"中等"水平NDVI上升明显且占比较大。(2)天保工程实施以来,阜康林区年平均气温总体呈波动下降趋势,整体下降幅度不明显。年降水量总体呈显著的波动上升趋势,降水量表现为显著的上升趋势。(3)天保工程实施以来,植被覆盖变化与气温变化的相关系数仅为0.053 9,而与降水变化显著相关。植被覆盖变化受气温变化影响强度小于受降水的影响。[结论]天保工程实施以来,阜康林区植被覆盖总体呈波动下降趋势,但下降幅度并不显著;林区内气候总体由暖干向冷湿趋势发展,但变化趋势不明显;植被覆盖的波动与降水波动的关系要强于气温。阜康林区天保工程实施对周边气候改善具有一定作用,但仍需加强林区内植被保护与恢复工作。
[Objective]To analyze the response relationships between vegetation cover and temperature and precipitation since the implementation of natural forest protection program(NFPP)in Fukang forest farm,in order to provide data support for the ecological benefit evaluation of NFPP.[Methods]Based on the MODIS/NDVI data and the temperature &precipitation data from 2000 to 2015 in Fukang forest farm,the methods of mean value,regression analysis,distance fluctuation and correlation analysis was used to explore the vegetation cover characteristics,climate change status in the farm and the response relationships between them.[Results](1) From 2000 to 2015,the vegetation cover in the study area was at a low level and showed a slight fluctuating downward trend.By analyzing the changes of NDVI at different levels,the most obvious change of vegetation cover in the past 15 years was the part of NDVI>0.65,which was the main part of the decline of NDVI in the study area.The level of‘low’and‘high’NDVI increased but was not obvious,and the level of‘medium’NDVI increased obviously and accounted for a relatively large proportion.(2) Since the implementation of NFPP,the annual average temperature in the study area showed a fluctuating downward trend.The annual precipitation showed a significant fluctuating upward trend.(3) Since the implementation of the NFPP,the correlation coefficient between vegetation cover change and temperature change was only 0.053 9,while the correlation coefficient between vegetation cover change and precipitation change showed a significant correlation.Vegetation cover change was less affected by temperature than by precipitation.[Conclusion]Since the implementation of the NFPP,the vegetation coverage in the Fukang forest farm has showed a fluctuating downward trend,but the decline is not significant.The climate tends to change from warm and dry to cold and wet,and the trend is not obvious.The relationship between vegetation cover fluctuations and precipitation fluctuations is significantly stronger than that of temperature.The implementation of the NFPP in the Fukang forest farm has improved the surrounding climate,but it is still necessary to strengthen the protection and restoration of the vegetation in this region.
[Objective]To analyze the response relationships between vegetation cover and temperature and precipitation since the implementation of natural forest protection program(NFPP)in Fukang forest farm,in order to provide data support for the ecological benefit evaluation of NFPP.[Methods]Based on the MODIS/NDVI data and the temperature &precipitation data from 2000 to 2015 in Fukang forest farm,the methods of mean value,regression analysis,distance fluctuation and correlation analysis was used to explore the vegetation cover characteristics,climate change status in the farm and the response relationships between them.[Results](1) From 2000 to 2015,the vegetation cover in the study area was at a low level and showed a slight fluctuating downward trend.By analyzing the changes of NDVI at different levels,the most obvious change of vegetation cover in the past 15 years was the part of NDVI>0.65,which was the main part of the decline of NDVI in the study area.The level of‘low’and‘high’NDVI increased but was not obvious,and the level of‘medium’NDVI increased obviously and accounted for a relatively large proportion.(2) Since the implementation of NFPP,the annual average temperature in the study area showed a fluctuating downward trend.The annual precipitation showed a significant fluctuating upward trend.(3) Since the implementation of the NFPP,the correlation coefficient between vegetation cover change and temperature change was only 0.053 9,while the correlation coefficient between vegetation cover change and precipitation change showed a significant correlation.Vegetation cover change was less affected by temperature than by precipitation.[Conclusion]Since the implementation of the NFPP,the vegetation coverage in the Fukang forest farm has showed a fluctuating downward trend,but the decline is not significant.The climate tends to change from warm and dry to cold and wet,and the trend is not obvious.The relationship between vegetation cover fluctuations and precipitation fluctuations is significantly stronger than that of temperature.The implementation of the NFPP in the Fukang forest farm has improved the surrounding climate,but it is still necessary to strengthen the protection and restoration of the vegetation in this region.
引文
[1]贾文雄,陈京华.1982-2014年祁连山植被生长季NDVI变化及其对气候的响应[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(2):264-268.
[2]武正丽,贾文雄,赵珍,等.2000-2012年祁连山植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的相关性[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1242-1252.
[3]白建军,白江涛,王磊.2000-2010年陕北地区植被NDVI时空变化及其与区域气候的关系[J].地理科学,2014,34(7):882-888.
[4]Eklundh L.Estimating relations between AVHRR NDVIand rainfall in East Africa at 10-days and monthly time scales[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,1998,19(3):563-568.
[5]Fensholt R,Proud S R.Evaluation of earth observation based global long term vegetation trends-comparing GIMMSand MODIS global NDVI time series[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2012,119(3):131-147.
[6]Ding Mingjun,Zhang Yili,Liu Linshan,et al.The relationship between NDVI and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2007,17(3):259-268.
[7]闫俊杰,乔木,周宏飞,等.基于MODIS/NDVI的新疆伊犁河谷植被变化[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(3):512-519.
[8]宋富强,邢开雄,刘阳,等.基于MODIS_NDVI的陕北地区植被动态监测与评价[J].生态学报,2011,31(2):354-363.
[9]徐丽萍,郭鹏,王玲,等.天山北麓中段植被NDVI变化及其对气候因子的响应[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(6):158-167.
[10]慈晖,张强.新疆NDVI时空特征及气候变化影响研究[J].地球信息科学,2017,19(5):662-671.
[11]石玉琼,郑亚云,李团胜.榆林地区2000-2014年NDVI时空变化[J].生态学杂志,2018,37(1):211-218.
[12]胡汝骥.中国天山自然地理[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2004:342-348.
[13]马建勇,潘婕,姜江,等.北疆地区1955-2009年气温-降水变化特征的时间序列分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(2):18-24.
[14]王新欣,朱进忠,范艳敏,等.基于MODIS-NDVI的天山北坡中段草地动态估产模型研究[J].草业科学,2009,26(7):24-27.
[15]冯志敏,赵玲,安沙舟,等.基于MODIS的天山山区草地类型植被指数变化特征及其与气候因子的关系[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(2):57-62.
[16]穆振侠,姜卉芳,刘丰.2001-2008年天山西部山区积雪覆盖及NDVI的时空变化特性[J].冰川冻土,2010,32(5):875-881.
[17]白淑英,王莉,史建桥.长江流域NDVI对气候变化响应的时滞效应[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):579-586.
[18]陈彦光.地理数学方法:基础和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:47-48.
[19]施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[20]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.
[2]武正丽,贾文雄,赵珍,等.2000-2012年祁连山植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的相关性[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(6):1242-1252.
[3]白建军,白江涛,王磊.2000-2010年陕北地区植被NDVI时空变化及其与区域气候的关系[J].地理科学,2014,34(7):882-888.
[4]Eklundh L.Estimating relations between AVHRR NDVIand rainfall in East Africa at 10-days and monthly time scales[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,1998,19(3):563-568.
[5]Fensholt R,Proud S R.Evaluation of earth observation based global long term vegetation trends-comparing GIMMSand MODIS global NDVI time series[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2012,119(3):131-147.
[6]Ding Mingjun,Zhang Yili,Liu Linshan,et al.The relationship between NDVI and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2007,17(3):259-268.
[7]闫俊杰,乔木,周宏飞,等.基于MODIS/NDVI的新疆伊犁河谷植被变化[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(3):512-519.
[8]宋富强,邢开雄,刘阳,等.基于MODIS_NDVI的陕北地区植被动态监测与评价[J].生态学报,2011,31(2):354-363.
[9]徐丽萍,郭鹏,王玲,等.天山北麓中段植被NDVI变化及其对气候因子的响应[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(6):158-167.
[10]慈晖,张强.新疆NDVI时空特征及气候变化影响研究[J].地球信息科学,2017,19(5):662-671.
[11]石玉琼,郑亚云,李团胜.榆林地区2000-2014年NDVI时空变化[J].生态学杂志,2018,37(1):211-218.
[12]胡汝骥.中国天山自然地理[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2004:342-348.
[13]马建勇,潘婕,姜江,等.北疆地区1955-2009年气温-降水变化特征的时间序列分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(2):18-24.
[14]王新欣,朱进忠,范艳敏,等.基于MODIS-NDVI的天山北坡中段草地动态估产模型研究[J].草业科学,2009,26(7):24-27.
[15]冯志敏,赵玲,安沙舟,等.基于MODIS的天山山区草地类型植被指数变化特征及其与气候因子的关系[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(2):57-62.
[16]穆振侠,姜卉芳,刘丰.2001-2008年天山西部山区积雪覆盖及NDVI的时空变化特性[J].冰川冻土,2010,32(5):875-881.
[17]白淑英,王莉,史建桥.长江流域NDVI对气候变化响应的时滞效应[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):579-586.
[18]陈彦光.地理数学方法:基础和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:47-48.
[19]施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
[20]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.