基于多层次灰色方法的生态旅游发展潜力评价及实证研究
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摘要
[目的]生态旅游作为可持续旅游的一种形式,已成为旅游学术研究与实践探索的热点,生态旅游发展潜力研究日益受到重视。文章以吉林省为研究对象,探讨生态旅游开发潜力的有关问题,以期为吉林省乃至我国生态旅游发展提供一定的理论与实践参考。[方法]从旅游资源、开发条件、客源市场、生态环境4个方面设计了生态旅游发展潜力评价指标体系,运用层次分析法与变异系数法相结合的主客观综合方法进行指标赋权,构建了基于多层次灰色模型的生态旅游发展潜力评价模型,并以吉林省8市1州为研究单位进行了实证分析。[结果]吉林省8市1州的生态旅游发展潜力综合得分介于3～4分之间,总体良好,但各市州之间也存在一定差异。[结论]根据评价结果,将吉林省生态旅游发展潜力划分为3个层级,即长春、延边州、吉林为一级生态旅游发展潜力区;通化、白山、白城、松原等4个城市为二级生态旅游发展潜力区;四平市、辽源市为三级生态旅游发展潜力区,并提出了吉林省生态旅游开发的思路和战略性对策。
Ecotourism as one of the patterns of sustainable development has become a hot spot of tourism academic research and practice exploration. The research on ecotourism development potential is getting more and more attention. Based on the research object of Jilin province,this study discussed the related problems of ecotourism development potential,so as to provide some references for the theory and practice of ecotourism development in Jilin province and China. This study designed an evaluation index system of ecotourism development potential from four aspects including tourism resources,development conditions,tourist market and ecological environment. And it used AHP( analytic hierarchy process) and CV( coefficient of variation method) to determine the index weight,and constructed the ecotourism development potential evaluation model based on the multi-level grey model,which was then carried out in 8 cities and 1 autonomous prefecture in Jilin province as research units. The results show that the comprehensive scores of ecotourism development potential in eight cities and one autonomous prefecture of Jilin province are between 3 and 4 points,which are good in total,but there are also some differences between them. It can be divided into three levels: Changchun,Yanbian and Jilin as the Class Ⅰ areas of ecotourism development potential. The four cities of Tonghua,Baishan,Baicheng and Songyuan are the Class Ⅱ areas of ecotourism development potential. Siping and Liaoyuan are the Class Ⅲ areas of ecotourism development potential. Based on the research results,this study points out the thought and strategic countermeasures of ecotourism development in Jilin province.
Ecotourism as one of the patterns of sustainable development has become a hot spot of tourism academic research and practice exploration. The research on ecotourism development potential is getting more and more attention. Based on the research object of Jilin province,this study discussed the related problems of ecotourism development potential,so as to provide some references for the theory and practice of ecotourism development in Jilin province and China. This study designed an evaluation index system of ecotourism development potential from four aspects including tourism resources,development conditions,tourist market and ecological environment. And it used AHP( analytic hierarchy process) and CV( coefficient of variation method) to determine the index weight,and constructed the ecotourism development potential evaluation model based on the multi-level grey model,which was then carried out in 8 cities and 1 autonomous prefecture in Jilin province as research units. The results show that the comprehensive scores of ecotourism development potential in eight cities and one autonomous prefecture of Jilin province are between 3 and 4 points,which are good in total,but there are also some differences between them. It can be divided into three levels: Changchun,Yanbian and Jilin as the Class Ⅰ areas of ecotourism development potential. The four cities of Tonghua,Baishan,Baicheng and Songyuan are the Class Ⅱ areas of ecotourism development potential. Siping and Liaoyuan are the Class Ⅲ areas of ecotourism development potential. Based on the research results,this study points out the thought and strategic countermeasures of ecotourism development in Jilin province.
引文
[1]钟林生,马向远,曾瑜皙.中国生态旅游研究进展与展望.地理科学进展,2016,35(6):679-690.
[2]杨延风,马俊杰.对国内生态旅游理论与实践的反思.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(12):235-240.
[3]丁丽英.平潭生态旅游资源评价与可持续发展对策.吉林师范大学学报,2012,33(1):62-65.
[4] Obua J. The potential,development and ecological impact of ecotourism in Kibale National Park,Uganda.. Journal of Environmental Manage-ment,1997,50(1):27-38.
[5] Nouri J,Danehkar A,Sharifipour R. Evaluation of ecotourism potential in the northern coastline of the Persian Gulf. Environmental Geology,2008,55(3):681-686.
[6] Movahed A,Dabagh N Z. Ecological potential evaluation of Dez river confine for ecotourism. 2010.
[7] Redowan M,Kanan A H,Kamal M M,et al. An assessment of the potential of ecotourism in Sylhet Forest Division,Bangladesh,from visitors'profile study. International Journal of Forest Usufructs Management,2013:58-73.
[8]王霄,黄震方,袁林旺,等.生态旅游资源潜力评价——以江苏盐城海滨湿地为例.经济地理,2007,27(5):830-834.
[9]张春丽,佟连军,刘继斌.三江平原湿地保护区生态旅游发展潜力比较研究.湿地科学,2008,6(2):335-342.
[10]周彬,钟林生,陈田,等.基于生态位的黑龙江省中俄界江生态旅游潜力评价.资源科学,2014,36(6):1142-1151.
[11]何方永.中国西部省域生态旅游发展潜力评价.干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(4):189-194.
[12]黄震方,袁林旺,黄燕玲,等.生态旅游资源定量评价指标体系与评价方法——以江苏海滨为例.生态学报,2008,28(4):1655-1662.
[13]廉同辉,王金叶,程道品.自然保护区生态旅游开发潜力评价指标体系及评价模型——以广西猫儿山国家级自然保护区为例.地理科学进展,2010,29(12):1613-1619.
[14]吕建树,刘洋.黄河三角洲湿地生态旅游资源开发潜力评价.湿地科学,2010,08(4):339-346.
[15]吕建树,刘洋,张祖陆,等.鲁北滨海湿地生态旅游资源开发潜力评价及开发策略.资源科学,2011,33(9):1788-1798.
[16]张凤太,盖媛瑾.雷公自然保护区生态旅游发展潜力的评价研究.中国农学通报,2012,28(8):116-123.
[17]吴文庆,沈涵,吉琛佳,等.水利生态旅游开发潜力的评价指标体系研究.管理世界,2012(3):184-185.
[18]罗艳玲.河南省生态旅游资源开发潜力评价及可持续发展策略.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(9):40-47.
[19]刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国,等.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社,2013. 175-199.
[20]胡笙煌.主观指标评价的多层次灰色评价法.系统工程理论与实践,1996,16(1):12-20.
[21]岳意定,李岱.区域经济投资风险多层次灰色评价研究.经济地理,2014,34(1):42-46.
[22]王来军,魏亮,李卫斌,等.基于灰色模糊多层次模型的莱芜城乡公交一体化评价.西北大学学报:自然科学版,2014,44(5):733-738.
[23]林嘉兴,程艳霞.企业营销资源力的灰色多层次评价模型.统计与决策,2009(7):60-62.
[24]汪侠,顾朝林,刘晋媛,等.旅游资源开发潜力评价的多层次灰色方法——以老子山风景区为例.地理研究,2007,26(3):625-635.
[25]董秋玲,郗英,常玉.多层次灰色评价法在西部科技园区技术创新能力评价中的应用.科技管理研究,2006,26(4):52-55.
[26]耿松涛,陈文玲.基于多层次灰色方法的旅游地产项目开发风险评价模型及实证研究.旅游科学,2013,27(5):52-63.
[2]杨延风,马俊杰.对国内生态旅游理论与实践的反思.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(12):235-240.
[3]丁丽英.平潭生态旅游资源评价与可持续发展对策.吉林师范大学学报,2012,33(1):62-65.
[4] Obua J. The potential,development and ecological impact of ecotourism in Kibale National Park,Uganda.. Journal of Environmental Manage-ment,1997,50(1):27-38.
[5] Nouri J,Danehkar A,Sharifipour R. Evaluation of ecotourism potential in the northern coastline of the Persian Gulf. Environmental Geology,2008,55(3):681-686.
[6] Movahed A,Dabagh N Z. Ecological potential evaluation of Dez river confine for ecotourism. 2010.
[7] Redowan M,Kanan A H,Kamal M M,et al. An assessment of the potential of ecotourism in Sylhet Forest Division,Bangladesh,from visitors'profile study. International Journal of Forest Usufructs Management,2013:58-73.
[8]王霄,黄震方,袁林旺,等.生态旅游资源潜力评价——以江苏盐城海滨湿地为例.经济地理,2007,27(5):830-834.
[9]张春丽,佟连军,刘继斌.三江平原湿地保护区生态旅游发展潜力比较研究.湿地科学,2008,6(2):335-342.
[10]周彬,钟林生,陈田,等.基于生态位的黑龙江省中俄界江生态旅游潜力评价.资源科学,2014,36(6):1142-1151.
[11]何方永.中国西部省域生态旅游发展潜力评价.干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(4):189-194.
[12]黄震方,袁林旺,黄燕玲,等.生态旅游资源定量评价指标体系与评价方法——以江苏海滨为例.生态学报,2008,28(4):1655-1662.
[13]廉同辉,王金叶,程道品.自然保护区生态旅游开发潜力评价指标体系及评价模型——以广西猫儿山国家级自然保护区为例.地理科学进展,2010,29(12):1613-1619.
[14]吕建树,刘洋.黄河三角洲湿地生态旅游资源开发潜力评价.湿地科学,2010,08(4):339-346.
[15]吕建树,刘洋,张祖陆,等.鲁北滨海湿地生态旅游资源开发潜力评价及开发策略.资源科学,2011,33(9):1788-1798.
[16]张凤太,盖媛瑾.雷公自然保护区生态旅游发展潜力的评价研究.中国农学通报,2012,28(8):116-123.
[17]吴文庆,沈涵,吉琛佳,等.水利生态旅游开发潜力的评价指标体系研究.管理世界,2012(3):184-185.
[18]罗艳玲.河南省生态旅游资源开发潜力评价及可持续发展策略.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(9):40-47.
[19]刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国,等.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社,2013. 175-199.
[20]胡笙煌.主观指标评价的多层次灰色评价法.系统工程理论与实践,1996,16(1):12-20.
[21]岳意定,李岱.区域经济投资风险多层次灰色评价研究.经济地理,2014,34(1):42-46.
[22]王来军,魏亮,李卫斌,等.基于灰色模糊多层次模型的莱芜城乡公交一体化评价.西北大学学报:自然科学版,2014,44(5):733-738.
[23]林嘉兴,程艳霞.企业营销资源力的灰色多层次评价模型.统计与决策,2009(7):60-62.
[24]汪侠,顾朝林,刘晋媛,等.旅游资源开发潜力评价的多层次灰色方法——以老子山风景区为例.地理研究,2007,26(3):625-635.
[25]董秋玲,郗英,常玉.多层次灰色评价法在西部科技园区技术创新能力评价中的应用.科技管理研究,2006,26(4):52-55.
[26]耿松涛,陈文玲.基于多层次灰色方法的旅游地产项目开发风险评价模型及实证研究.旅游科学,2013,27(5):52-63.