生育、劳动人口福利与机制设计
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摘要
通过建立动态优化模型,进行模拟发现:在没有配套性政策下按照政策生育会降低劳动人口的福利水平。这意味着,如果自愿进行生育,全面二孩政策下民众很可能不会有效地响应政策。进一步模拟发现:养老制度转轨和降低生育成本的政策,如果与生育政策调整同时进行,可以增加社会资源,补偿生育对劳动人口福利的挤占,但是政策具有生育效应的关键在于转轨带来社会资源增量须用于生育支持,降低家庭生育成本的关键在于提高社会照看与提供孩子产品和服务企业的社会生产率。政策启示在于,尽快出台与生育政策配套性的措施,特别是生育支持性政策。
Establishing a dynamic optimization model for family decision-making, we carry out simulations and find that, under the non-supporting policies, the welfare of the working population will be reduced if the family fertility according to the policy. This means that if the family voluntarily choose fertility, the people under the comprehensive two-child policy may not respond effectively to the policy. In order to implement fertility goals, the government needs to introduce supporting measures to compensate for the loss of welfare of the labor force caused by fertility. Further simulations found that the policy of transitioning the pension system and reducing the cost of childbirth, if accompanied by the adjustment of the fertility policy, can increase social resources and compensate for the welfare loss of the working population.However, the key to the success of fertility effect of the policy is that the increase in social resources due to the transition needs to be used for fertility support, and the reduction of the cost of fertility is to increase the productivity of fertility. The policy enlightenment is that, as soon as possible, we will introduce supporting policies, especially maternity support policies.
Establishing a dynamic optimization model for family decision-making, we carry out simulations and find that, under the non-supporting policies, the welfare of the working population will be reduced if the family fertility according to the policy. This means that if the family voluntarily choose fertility, the people under the comprehensive two-child policy may not respond effectively to the policy. In order to implement fertility goals, the government needs to introduce supporting measures to compensate for the loss of welfare of the labor force caused by fertility. Further simulations found that the policy of transitioning the pension system and reducing the cost of childbirth, if accompanied by the adjustment of the fertility policy, can increase social resources and compensate for the welfare loss of the working population.However, the key to the success of fertility effect of the policy is that the increase in social resources due to the transition needs to be used for fertility support, and the reduction of the cost of fertility is to increase the productivity of fertility. The policy enlightenment is that, as soon as possible, we will introduce supporting policies, especially maternity support policies.
引文
[1]杨华磊,黄少安,温兴春.60后婴儿潮退休背景下的养老和退休政策选择[J].经济评论,2016,1:53-64.Yang H L,Huang S A,Wen X C.Choice of Pension and Retirement Policy When Post:60s Baby Boom Start to Retire in China[J].Economic Review,2016,1:53-64.
[2]张晓青,黄彩虹,张强,陈双双,范其鹏.单独二孩与“全面二孩政策”家庭生育意愿比较及启示[J].人口研究,2016,1:87-97.Zhang X Q,Huang C H,Zhang Q,Chen S S,Fan Q P.Fertility Intention for the Second Child under the Selective and Universal Two-Child Policies:Comparisons and Implications[J].Population Research,2016,1:87-97.
[3]乔晓春.实施“普遍二孩”政策后生育水平会达到多高:兼与翟振武教授商榷[J].人口与发展,2014,12:2-15.Qiao X C.How High Would be the Fertility Level if Implementing Two-Child Policy?Discussion with Prof.Zhai Zhen-wu[J].Population and Development,2014,12:2-15.
[4]Brewster,K.L.,Rindfuss,R.R.Fertility and Women’s Employment in Industrialized Nations[J].Annual Review of Sociology,2000,26(26):271-296.
[5]Budig,M.J.Are Wome’s Employment and Fertility Histories Interdependent?An Examination of Causal Order Using Event History Analysis[J].Social Science Research,2003,32(3):376-401.
[6]魏宁,苏群.生育对农村已婚妇女非农就业的影响研究[J].农业经济问题,2013,7:30-34.Wei N,Su Q.Study on the Effect of Fertility on Non-agricultural Employment of Married Rural Women[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2013,7:30-34.
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[8]郑真真.生育政策调整完善与妇女发展专家笔谈:实现就业与育儿兼顾需多方援手[J].妇女研究论丛,2016,2:5-7.Zheng Z Z.Family Planning Policy Adjustment and Improvement and Women Development Experts Written:To Achieve the Combination of Employment and Childcare Needs a Multi-helping Hand[J].Collection of Women’s Studies,2016,2:5-7.
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[15]杨云彦.构建鼓励生育的社会支持体系[J].中国卫生,2017,4:47-48Yang Y Y.Build Social Support Systems that Encourage Fertility[J].Chinese Health,2017,4:47-48.
[16]陈煜婷.城镇就业人群生育意愿及其影响因素的性别差异研究:职业结构、时间分配和性别观念的效应[J].南方人口,2017,1:68-80.Chen Y T.Gender Differences of Urban Workers in Childbearing Intention and Its Influencing Factors:The Effects of Occupational Structure,Time Allocation and Gender Conception[J].South China Population,2017,1:68-80.
[17]靳卫东,宫杰婧,毛中根.二孩生育政策遇冷:理论分析及经验证据[J].财贸经济,2018,2:130-145.Jin W D,Gong J J,Mao Z G.Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Lukewarm Response to Two-Child Policy[J].Finance&Trade Economics,2018,2:130-145.
[18]刘汶蓉,徐安琪.生养孩子的非经济成本研究:以上海为例[J].青年研究,2006,10:25-33.Liu W R,Xu A Q.Study on the Non-economic Cost of Having Children:A Case Study of Shanghai[J].Youth Studies,2006,10:25-33.
[19]尹豪,徐剑.大连市生育成本调查结果分析[J],人口学刊,2008,12:15-18.Yin H,Xu J.Analysis the Investigation of Fertility Cost in Dalian City[J].Population Journal,2008,12:15-18.
[20]郑真真,李玉柱,廖少宏.低生育水平下的生育成本收益研究:来自江苏省的调查[J].中国人口科学,2009,2:93-112.Zheng Z Z,Li Y Z,Liao S H.Study on the Cost and Benefit of Childbearing in the Context of Low Fertility:Findings from Jiangsu Survey[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2009,2:93-112.
[21]许光.低生育水平下城市青年生育意愿的经济约束与政策突破[J].中国青年研究,2011,5:77-81.Xu G.Economic Constraint and Policy Breakthrough of Urban Youth’s Fertility Desire under Low Fertility Level[J].China Youth Study,2011,5:77-81.
[22]Leibenstein,H.A.Theory of Economic-Demographic Development,Princeton[M].New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1954.
[23]Leibenstein,H.A.Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth[J].Studies in the Theory of Economic Development,1957,4(4):375-401.
[24]Barro,R.J.,Becker,G.S.Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):481-501.
[25]穆光宗.生育的成本:效用分析[J].南方人口,1993,4:7-12.Mu G Z.Cost of Fertility:Utility Analysis[J].South China Population,1993,4:7-12.
[26]罗丽艳.孩子成本效用的拓展分析及其对中国人口转变的解释[J].人口研究,2003,2:47-54.Luo L Y.Extended Analysis of the Cost-effectiveness of Children and Its Interpretation of China’s Demographic Transition[J].Population Research,2003,2:47-54.
[27]谭雪萍.成本-效用视角下的单独二胎生育意愿影响因素研究:基于徐州市单独家庭的调查[J].南方人口,2015,12:1-22.Tan X P.Policy in the Perspective of Cost-Utility Theory:An Analysis of the Survey Data in Xu Zhou[J].South China Population,2015,12:1-22.
[28]Doepke,M.Accounting for Fertility Decline during the Transition to Growth[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2004,43(9):347-383.
[29]Liao,P.J.One-child Policy:A Macroeconomic Analysis[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,101(1):49-62.
[30]Yang,H.L.Choice of Pension and Retirement Systems When Post-1960s Baby Boomers Start to Retire in China[J].China Finance&Economic Review,2016,4(1):1-11.
[31]尹文耀,姚引妹,李芬.生育水平评估与生育政策调整:基于中国大陆分省生育水平现状的分析[J].中国社会科学,2013,6:110-128.Yin W Y,Yao Y M,Li F.Fertility Level Assessment and Fertility Policy Adjustment:An Analysis of the Provincial Data on Fertility Level in Mainland China[J].Social Sciences in China,2013,6:110-128.
[32]陈卫.基于广义稳定人口模型的中国生育率估计[J].人口研究,2015,6:35-43.Chen W.China’s Fertility Estimation:A Generalized Stable Population Approach[J].Population Research,2015,6:35-43.
[33]Barro,R.J.,Lee,J.W.New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World 1950-2010[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,104(1):184-198.
[34]黄晨熹.1964-2005年我国人口受教育状况的变动:基于人口普查/抽查资料的分析[J].人口学刊.2011,4:3-13.Huang C X.Change of Education Attainment between 1964 and 2005 in China:Analysis Based on the Data from Population Census and 1%Population Sampling[J].Population Journal.2011,4:3-13.
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[40]宋健,周宇香.全面两孩政策执行中生育成本的分担:基于国家、家庭和用人单位三方视角[J],中国人民大学学报,2016,6:16-23.Song J,Zhou Y X.Reproductive Cost Sharing in Two-child Policy Implementation:From Perspectives of the Government,Family and Employers[J].Journal of Renmin University of China,2016,6:16-23.
(1)http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2017-01/04/c_129431439.htm
(1)http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0727/c1004-28587325.html
(1)相对于计算出来的每期具体效用值,我们更多的是关注政策前后效用的变化趋势和比较特征。
[2]张晓青,黄彩虹,张强,陈双双,范其鹏.单独二孩与“全面二孩政策”家庭生育意愿比较及启示[J].人口研究,2016,1:87-97.Zhang X Q,Huang C H,Zhang Q,Chen S S,Fan Q P.Fertility Intention for the Second Child under the Selective and Universal Two-Child Policies:Comparisons and Implications[J].Population Research,2016,1:87-97.
[3]乔晓春.实施“普遍二孩”政策后生育水平会达到多高:兼与翟振武教授商榷[J].人口与发展,2014,12:2-15.Qiao X C.How High Would be the Fertility Level if Implementing Two-Child Policy?Discussion with Prof.Zhai Zhen-wu[J].Population and Development,2014,12:2-15.
[4]Brewster,K.L.,Rindfuss,R.R.Fertility and Women’s Employment in Industrialized Nations[J].Annual Review of Sociology,2000,26(26):271-296.
[5]Budig,M.J.Are Wome’s Employment and Fertility Histories Interdependent?An Examination of Causal Order Using Event History Analysis[J].Social Science Research,2003,32(3):376-401.
[6]魏宁,苏群.生育对农村已婚妇女非农就业的影响研究[J].农业经济问题,2013,7:30-34.Wei N,Su Q.Study on the Effect of Fertility on Non-agricultural Employment of Married Rural Women[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2013,7:30-34.
[7]宋健,周宇香.中国已婚妇女生育状况对就业的影响:兼论经济支持和照料支持的调节作用[J].妇女研究论丛,2015,4:16-23.Song J,Zhou Y X.Married Women’s Fertility and Its Effect on Their Employment:The Role of Economic Assistance and Care Support[J].Collection of Women’s Studies,2015,4:16-23.
[8]郑真真.生育政策调整完善与妇女发展专家笔谈:实现就业与育儿兼顾需多方援手[J].妇女研究论丛,2016,2:5-7.Zheng Z Z.Family Planning Policy Adjustment and Improvement and Women Development Experts Written:To Achieve the Combination of Employment and Childcare Needs a Multi-helping Hand[J].Collection of Women’s Studies,2016,2:5-7.
[9]蒙克.就业-生育关系转变和双薪型家庭政策的兴起:从发达国家经验看我国“二孩”时代家庭政策[J].社会学研究,2017,5:218-246.Meng K.Reversal of the Employment-Fertility Relationship and the Rise of Dual Earner Family Policy:Implications for China’s Family Policy in the Two Child Era[J].Sociological Studies,2017,5:218-246.
[10]Greenhaus,J.H.,Beutell,N.J.Sources of Conflict between Work and Family Roles[J].Academy of Management Review,1985,10(1):76-88.
[11]国云丹.高知女性、生育与职业发展:以上海市21位女性为例[J].妇女研究论丛,2009,2:26-31.Guo Y D.Intellectual Women,Reproduction and Occupational Development:Study of 21Women in Shanghai[J].Collection of Women’s Studies,2009,2:26-31.
[12]杨慧,吕云婷,任兰兰.二孩对城镇青年平衡工作家庭的影响:基于中国妇女社会地位调查数据的实证分析[J].人口与经济,2016,3:1-9.Yang H,Lv Y T,Ren L L.Study on the Impact of Bearing Two Children on Urban Youth’s Work-Family Balance:The Empirical Analysis Based on the Third Survey of Chinese Women’s Social Status[J].Population&Economics,2016,3:1-9.
[13]李静雅.已育一孩职业女性的二孩生育意愿研究:基于生育效用感和再生育成本的实证分析[J].妇女研究论丛,2017,3:27-39.Li J Y.Women’s Fertility Desire for a Second Child:Analysis Based on Sense of Utility and Cost of Second Birth[J].Collection of Women’s Studies,2017,3:27-39.
[14]刘金华,彭敬,刘渝阳.城镇女职工再生育后的职业发展支持及其效用[J].经济体制改革,2017,3:31-37.Liu J H,Peng J,Liu Y Y.Career Development Support and Its Effectiveness for Female Workers in the Town after Childbearing[J].Reform of Economic System,2017,3:31-37.
[15]杨云彦.构建鼓励生育的社会支持体系[J].中国卫生,2017,4:47-48Yang Y Y.Build Social Support Systems that Encourage Fertility[J].Chinese Health,2017,4:47-48.
[16]陈煜婷.城镇就业人群生育意愿及其影响因素的性别差异研究:职业结构、时间分配和性别观念的效应[J].南方人口,2017,1:68-80.Chen Y T.Gender Differences of Urban Workers in Childbearing Intention and Its Influencing Factors:The Effects of Occupational Structure,Time Allocation and Gender Conception[J].South China Population,2017,1:68-80.
[17]靳卫东,宫杰婧,毛中根.二孩生育政策遇冷:理论分析及经验证据[J].财贸经济,2018,2:130-145.Jin W D,Gong J J,Mao Z G.Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of Lukewarm Response to Two-Child Policy[J].Finance&Trade Economics,2018,2:130-145.
[18]刘汶蓉,徐安琪.生养孩子的非经济成本研究:以上海为例[J].青年研究,2006,10:25-33.Liu W R,Xu A Q.Study on the Non-economic Cost of Having Children:A Case Study of Shanghai[J].Youth Studies,2006,10:25-33.
[19]尹豪,徐剑.大连市生育成本调查结果分析[J],人口学刊,2008,12:15-18.Yin H,Xu J.Analysis the Investigation of Fertility Cost in Dalian City[J].Population Journal,2008,12:15-18.
[20]郑真真,李玉柱,廖少宏.低生育水平下的生育成本收益研究:来自江苏省的调查[J].中国人口科学,2009,2:93-112.Zheng Z Z,Li Y Z,Liao S H.Study on the Cost and Benefit of Childbearing in the Context of Low Fertility:Findings from Jiangsu Survey[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2009,2:93-112.
[21]许光.低生育水平下城市青年生育意愿的经济约束与政策突破[J].中国青年研究,2011,5:77-81.Xu G.Economic Constraint and Policy Breakthrough of Urban Youth’s Fertility Desire under Low Fertility Level[J].China Youth Study,2011,5:77-81.
[22]Leibenstein,H.A.Theory of Economic-Demographic Development,Princeton[M].New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1954.
[23]Leibenstein,H.A.Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth[J].Studies in the Theory of Economic Development,1957,4(4):375-401.
[24]Barro,R.J.,Becker,G.S.Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth[J].Econometrica,1989,57(2):481-501.
[25]穆光宗.生育的成本:效用分析[J].南方人口,1993,4:7-12.Mu G Z.Cost of Fertility:Utility Analysis[J].South China Population,1993,4:7-12.
[26]罗丽艳.孩子成本效用的拓展分析及其对中国人口转变的解释[J].人口研究,2003,2:47-54.Luo L Y.Extended Analysis of the Cost-effectiveness of Children and Its Interpretation of China’s Demographic Transition[J].Population Research,2003,2:47-54.
[27]谭雪萍.成本-效用视角下的单独二胎生育意愿影响因素研究:基于徐州市单独家庭的调查[J].南方人口,2015,12:1-22.Tan X P.Policy in the Perspective of Cost-Utility Theory:An Analysis of the Survey Data in Xu Zhou[J].South China Population,2015,12:1-22.
[28]Doepke,M.Accounting for Fertility Decline during the Transition to Growth[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2004,43(9):347-383.
[29]Liao,P.J.One-child Policy:A Macroeconomic Analysis[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,101(1):49-62.
[30]Yang,H.L.Choice of Pension and Retirement Systems When Post-1960s Baby Boomers Start to Retire in China[J].China Finance&Economic Review,2016,4(1):1-11.
[31]尹文耀,姚引妹,李芬.生育水平评估与生育政策调整:基于中国大陆分省生育水平现状的分析[J].中国社会科学,2013,6:110-128.Yin W Y,Yao Y M,Li F.Fertility Level Assessment and Fertility Policy Adjustment:An Analysis of the Provincial Data on Fertility Level in Mainland China[J].Social Sciences in China,2013,6:110-128.
[32]陈卫.基于广义稳定人口模型的中国生育率估计[J].人口研究,2015,6:35-43.Chen W.China’s Fertility Estimation:A Generalized Stable Population Approach[J].Population Research,2015,6:35-43.
[33]Barro,R.J.,Lee,J.W.New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World 1950-2010[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,104(1):184-198.
[34]黄晨熹.1964-2005年我国人口受教育状况的变动:基于人口普查/抽查资料的分析[J].人口学刊.2011,4:3-13.Huang C X.Change of Education Attainment between 1964 and 2005 in China:Analysis Based on the Data from Population Census and 1%Population Sampling[J].Population Journal.2011,4:3-13.
[35]陆旸,蔡昉.人口结构变化对潜在增长率的影响:中国和日本的比较[J].世界经济,2014,37(1):3-29.Lu Y,Cai F.Impact of Demographic Changes on Potential Growth Rate:A Comparison between China and Japan[J].Journal of World Economy,2014,1:3-29.
[36]李宾,曾志雄.中国全要素生产率变动的再测算:1978~2007年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009,3:3-15.Li B,Zeng Z X.Recalculating the Changes in China’s Total Factor Productivity[J].Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2009,3:3-15.
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(1)http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2017-01/04/c_129431439.htm
(1)http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0727/c1004-28587325.html
(1)相对于计算出来的每期具体效用值,我们更多的是关注政策前后效用的变化趋势和比较特征。