预期寿命、人口红利与居民储蓄
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摘要
通过分析两次人口红利与高储蓄之间的内在联系,运用引入代际因子的OLG模型进行定性判断,采用固定效应、随机效应及面板门槛模型进行实证分析,研究预期寿命、抚养比与居民储蓄率之间的关系。研究结果表明:预期寿命增加可以显著提升居民储蓄率;少儿抚养比的增加会显著降低居民储蓄率,而老年抚养比的增加可以促进居民储蓄率的提高;在不同的门槛内,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比的系数大小均发生了变化。由此得出"老龄化"与"少子化"对储蓄率的影响在经济发展水平不同的地区存在异质性的结论。
By analyzing the internal relationship between the two demographic dividends and high savings,using OLG model with intergenerational factors to make qualitative judgments,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship among life expectancy,dependency ratio and household savings rate based on fixed effect model,random effect model and panel threshold model. The result finds that the increase of life expectancy can significantly increase the household saving rate. The increase in child dependency ratio can significantly decrease the household savings rate,and the increase in elderly dependency ratio can promote the increase in household savings rate. Within different thresholds,the coefficients of child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have changed. Therefore,it is concluded that the aging and low birth rates have heterogeneity effect on the saving rate in regions with different economic levels in China.
By analyzing the internal relationship between the two demographic dividends and high savings,using OLG model with intergenerational factors to make qualitative judgments,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship among life expectancy,dependency ratio and household savings rate based on fixed effect model,random effect model and panel threshold model. The result finds that the increase of life expectancy can significantly increase the household saving rate. The increase in child dependency ratio can significantly decrease the household savings rate,and the increase in elderly dependency ratio can promote the increase in household savings rate. Within different thresholds,the coefficients of child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have changed. Therefore,it is concluded that the aging and low birth rates have heterogeneity effect on the saving rate in regions with different economic levels in China.
引文
[1]袁蓓,郭熙保.韩国从计划生育到鼓励生育的政策演变与启示[J].东南学术,2015(3):161-170.
[2]蔡昉.中国的人口红利还能持续多久[J].经济学动态,2011(6):3-7.
[3]董丽霞,赵文哲.人口结构与储蓄率:基于内生人口结构的研究[J].金融研究,2011(3):1-14.
[4]刘生龙,胡鞍钢,郎晓娟.预期寿命与中国家庭储蓄[J].经济研究,2012(8):107-117.
[5]唐东波.人口老龄化与居民高储蓄---理论及中国的经验研究[J].金融论坛,2007(9):3-9.
[6]王森.中国人口老龄化对居民储蓄率影响的定量分析---基于VAR模型的方法[J].中国人口科学,2010(S1):66-71.
[7]刘渝琳,刘俊茗,尹兴民.人口结构、资本积累与储蓄传导[J].人口与发展,2014(6):25-34.
[8]刘铠豪,刘渝琳.破解中国高储蓄率之谜---来自人口年龄结构变化的解释[J].人口与经济,2015(3):43-56.
[9]李超,罗润东.老龄化、预防动机与家庭储蓄率---对中国第二次人口红利的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2018(2):104-113.
[10]杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学,2013(8):47-66.
[11]朱超,周晔,张林杰.储蓄投资行为及外部均衡中的人口结构效应---来自亚洲的经验证据[J].中国人口科学,2012(1):39-50.
[12]Futagami K,Nakajima T.Population aging and economic growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2001,23(1):31-44.
[13]Kalemli-Ozcan S,Weil D N.Mortality change,the uncertainty effect,and retirement[R].Working Paper,2002.
[14]Bloom D E,Canning D,Mansfield R K.Demographic change,social security systems,and savings[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2007,54(1):92-114.
[15]郑长德.中国各地区人口结构与储蓄率关系的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2007(6):1-4.
[16]杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学,2013(8):47-66.
[17]范叙春,朱保华.预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率[J].人口研究,2012(4):18-28.
[18]孟令国,王清,胡广.二次人口红利视角下国民储蓄率影响因素分析[J].经济科学,2013(5):9-18.
[19]张志远,张铭洪.法定退休制下受教育年限、预期寿命与储蓄率的关系---兼论延迟退休对居民储蓄率的影响[J].当代财经,2016(12):44-54.
[20]耿志祥,孙祁祥.人口老龄化、延迟退休与二次人口红利[J].金融研究,2017(1):52-68.
[21]王颖,邓博文.老龄化国家人口转变与人口红利再生---基于18个老龄化国家的经验证据[J].财经科学,2017(8):67-77.
[22]Deaton A,Paxson C.Growth,demographic structure,and national saving in Taiwan[J].Population and Development Review,2000,26(2):141-173.
[23]Modigliani F,Cao S L.The Chinese saving puzzle and the life-cycle hypothesis[J].Journal of economic literature,2004,42(1):145-170.
[24]Horioka C Y,Wan J.The determinants of household saving in China:A dynamic panel analysis of provincial data[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,2007,39(8):2077-2096.
[25]Kraay A.Household saving in China[J].World Bank Economic Review,2000,14(3):545-70.
[26]Hansen B.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics.1999,93(2):345-368.
(1)出生时的预期寿命是指假定出生时的死亡率模式在一生中保持不变,一名新生儿可能生存的年数。
(1)ζ指特定个体误差,u表示时间序列和横截面混合误差。
(2)Karry在计算储蓄率时加入了恩格尔系数,主要指食品支出消费占整体消费的比例[25]。
(3)由于重庆和西藏的部分数据缺乏,因此将它们进行剔除。
(1)为了防止单个区间内的回归数值过少,从而产生伪回归的现象。
[2]蔡昉.中国的人口红利还能持续多久[J].经济学动态,2011(6):3-7.
[3]董丽霞,赵文哲.人口结构与储蓄率:基于内生人口结构的研究[J].金融研究,2011(3):1-14.
[4]刘生龙,胡鞍钢,郎晓娟.预期寿命与中国家庭储蓄[J].经济研究,2012(8):107-117.
[5]唐东波.人口老龄化与居民高储蓄---理论及中国的经验研究[J].金融论坛,2007(9):3-9.
[6]王森.中国人口老龄化对居民储蓄率影响的定量分析---基于VAR模型的方法[J].中国人口科学,2010(S1):66-71.
[7]刘渝琳,刘俊茗,尹兴民.人口结构、资本积累与储蓄传导[J].人口与发展,2014(6):25-34.
[8]刘铠豪,刘渝琳.破解中国高储蓄率之谜---来自人口年龄结构变化的解释[J].人口与经济,2015(3):43-56.
[9]李超,罗润东.老龄化、预防动机与家庭储蓄率---对中国第二次人口红利的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2018(2):104-113.
[10]杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学,2013(8):47-66.
[11]朱超,周晔,张林杰.储蓄投资行为及外部均衡中的人口结构效应---来自亚洲的经验证据[J].中国人口科学,2012(1):39-50.
[12]Futagami K,Nakajima T.Population aging and economic growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2001,23(1):31-44.
[13]Kalemli-Ozcan S,Weil D N.Mortality change,the uncertainty effect,and retirement[R].Working Paper,2002.
[14]Bloom D E,Canning D,Mansfield R K.Demographic change,social security systems,and savings[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2007,54(1):92-114.
[15]郑长德.中国各地区人口结构与储蓄率关系的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2007(6):1-4.
[16]杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学,2013(8):47-66.
[17]范叙春,朱保华.预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率[J].人口研究,2012(4):18-28.
[18]孟令国,王清,胡广.二次人口红利视角下国民储蓄率影响因素分析[J].经济科学,2013(5):9-18.
[19]张志远,张铭洪.法定退休制下受教育年限、预期寿命与储蓄率的关系---兼论延迟退休对居民储蓄率的影响[J].当代财经,2016(12):44-54.
[20]耿志祥,孙祁祥.人口老龄化、延迟退休与二次人口红利[J].金融研究,2017(1):52-68.
[21]王颖,邓博文.老龄化国家人口转变与人口红利再生---基于18个老龄化国家的经验证据[J].财经科学,2017(8):67-77.
[22]Deaton A,Paxson C.Growth,demographic structure,and national saving in Taiwan[J].Population and Development Review,2000,26(2):141-173.
[23]Modigliani F,Cao S L.The Chinese saving puzzle and the life-cycle hypothesis[J].Journal of economic literature,2004,42(1):145-170.
[24]Horioka C Y,Wan J.The determinants of household saving in China:A dynamic panel analysis of provincial data[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,2007,39(8):2077-2096.
[25]Kraay A.Household saving in China[J].World Bank Economic Review,2000,14(3):545-70.
[26]Hansen B.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:Estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics.1999,93(2):345-368.
(1)出生时的预期寿命是指假定出生时的死亡率模式在一生中保持不变,一名新生儿可能生存的年数。
(1)ζ指特定个体误差,u表示时间序列和横截面混合误差。
(2)Karry在计算储蓄率时加入了恩格尔系数,主要指食品支出消费占整体消费的比例[25]。
(3)由于重庆和西藏的部分数据缺乏,因此将它们进行剔除。
(1)为了防止单个区间内的回归数值过少,从而产生伪回归的现象。