少儿抚养负担会降低劳动参与率吗?——基于跨国面板数据的门槛回归分析
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摘要
采用1990—2014年跨国面板数据,以人均GDP作为门槛变量,构建面板门槛回归模型,实证检验了少儿抚养负担对劳动参与率的影响机制。研究结果发现,不同收入水平的国家,少儿抚养比对劳动参与率的影响具有差异性,低收入国家的少儿抚养比对劳动参与率有促进作用;中高收入国家的少儿抚养比对劳动参与率有抑制作用。研究结论对我国全面二孩政策的启示有三点:其一,不同经济发展区域应制定差异化的人口政策,以应对不同收入水平下少儿抚养对劳动参与率的影响;其二,进一步完善社会保障体系,探索就业、教育、住房、医疗、养老等保障制度改革,解决少儿照料及成长后的抚养成本问题;其三,转变经济增长方式,转变对劳动力数量依赖下的"人口红利"增长模式,增加资本、技术等因素对经济增长的贡献程度。
By adopting the 1990—2014 transnational panel data and with GDP per capita as threshold variable, this paper constructs a panel threshold regression model and empirically tests the influence mechanism of child-rearing burden on labor participation rate. The results show that in the countries with different income levels, the influence of child-rearing ratio on labor participation rate is different: the child-rearing ratio in low-income countries has a promoting effect on labor participation rate while the child-rearing ratio in middle-income and high-income countries has a restraining effect on labor participation rate. The resarch conclusion has the following three enlightenments for China comprehensive two-child policy: a. Different economic development regions should formulate differentiated population policies to cope with the impact of child-rearing on labor participation rate at different income levels; b. Social security system should be further improved and the reform of such security systems as employment, education, housing, medical care and old-age should be explored so as to solve the problem of the raising cost of child care and upbringing; and c. The "population dividend" growth model that depends on the number of labor force should be changed so as to increase the contribution degree of capital, technology and other factors to economic growth.
By adopting the 1990—2014 transnational panel data and with GDP per capita as threshold variable, this paper constructs a panel threshold regression model and empirically tests the influence mechanism of child-rearing burden on labor participation rate. The results show that in the countries with different income levels, the influence of child-rearing ratio on labor participation rate is different: the child-rearing ratio in low-income countries has a promoting effect on labor participation rate while the child-rearing ratio in middle-income and high-income countries has a restraining effect on labor participation rate. The resarch conclusion has the following three enlightenments for China comprehensive two-child policy: a. Different economic development regions should formulate differentiated population policies to cope with the impact of child-rearing on labor participation rate at different income levels; b. Social security system should be further improved and the reform of such security systems as employment, education, housing, medical care and old-age should be explored so as to solve the problem of the raising cost of child care and upbringing; and c. The "population dividend" growth model that depends on the number of labor force should be changed so as to increase the contribution degree of capital, technology and other factors to economic growth.
引文
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[19]康传坤,柴国俊,李粉.实施"全面二孩"政策的原因及限制性因素研究[J].山东财经大学学报,2017,29(4):72-79.
[20]连玉君,程建.不同成长机会下资本结构与经验绩效之关系研究[J].当代经济科学,2006(2):97-103.
[21]龚锋,余锦亮.人口老龄化、税收负担与财政可持续性[J].经济研究,2015,50(8):16-30.
[22]蒋伟.人口老龄化抑制了通货膨胀吗?——来自跨国数据的经验证据[J].中国社会科学院研究生学报,2015(5):64-70.
[23]HANSEN B E. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation,testing and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics, 1999(93):345-368.
[24]LEVIN G,LIN W,CHU D.Unit root test for panel data[J].Journal of International Money and Fiance,2002(20):249-272.
[25]李魁.劳动力负担对东亚经济起飞的影响——来自1969—1996年历史数据的经验分析[J].中国人口科学,2010(4):67-76.
[26]魏锋,孔煜.融资约束、不确定性与公司投资行为——基于我国制造业上市公司的实证分析[J].中国软科学,2005(3):43-49.
[2]MODIGLIANI F. Utility analysis and the consumption function: An interpretation of cross-section data[M]. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press. 1954.
[3]BAILEY M J. More power to the pill[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(1):289-320.
[4]CANNING D. The impact of aging on Asian development[Z]. Seminar on Aging Asia, A New Challenge for the Region, Kyoto, Japan, 2007.
[5]BLOOM L, WILLIAMSON O E. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia[J]. World Bank Economic Review 1998,12(13):419-455.
[6]BEAUJOT R, RAJULTION S, RAVANEAR F. Demographic transitions and economics miracles in emerging Asia[J]. World Bank Economic Review, 1995(12):419-455.
[7]蔡昉,王美艳.中国城镇劳动经济参与率的变化及其政策含义[J].中国社会科学,2004(4):68-80.
[8]AN C B,JEON S H.Demographic change and economic growth: An inverted- U shape relationship[J]. Economics Letters 2002,11(15): 447-454.
[9]BARRO M. The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change[J].International Journal of Forecasting, 1995,11(23):569-585.
[10]ANDERSSON B. Scandinavian evidence on growth and age structure[J].Regional Studies,2001,35(4):377-390.
[11]KELLEY A, SCHMIDT M. Saving, dependency and development[J]. Journal of Population Economics,1995,9(4): 365-386.
[12]JOSHI P, SCHULTZ T W. Family planning as investment in development [J]. Bangladesh, Economic Growth Center Working Paper, 2007,28(5):951-973.
[13]FOUGERE H, MERETTE S. Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries[J]. Economic Modelling,1999(16):411-427.
[14]MILES D. Modelling the impact of demographic change upon the economy[J]. Economic Journal, 1999,1(9):1-36.
[15]LEFF M, NATHANISL H. Dependency rate and saving rate[J]. American Economic Review, 1996,59(5): 886-896.
[16]MASON C. Saving economic growth and demographic change[J]. Population and Development Review, 1988, 14(1):113-144.
[17]MODIGLIANI F, CAO F G. The Chinese saving puzzle and the life-cycle hypothesis[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2004, 42 (1):145-170.
[18]HARBAUGH R. China’s high saving rates[Z].The Meeting of the Rise of China Revisited: Perception and Rality,Beijing,China,2003.
[19]康传坤,柴国俊,李粉.实施"全面二孩"政策的原因及限制性因素研究[J].山东财经大学学报,2017,29(4):72-79.
[20]连玉君,程建.不同成长机会下资本结构与经验绩效之关系研究[J].当代经济科学,2006(2):97-103.
[21]龚锋,余锦亮.人口老龄化、税收负担与财政可持续性[J].经济研究,2015,50(8):16-30.
[22]蒋伟.人口老龄化抑制了通货膨胀吗?——来自跨国数据的经验证据[J].中国社会科学院研究生学报,2015(5):64-70.
[23]HANSEN B E. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation,testing and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics, 1999(93):345-368.
[24]LEVIN G,LIN W,CHU D.Unit root test for panel data[J].Journal of International Money and Fiance,2002(20):249-272.
[25]李魁.劳动力负担对东亚经济起飞的影响——来自1969—1996年历史数据的经验分析[J].中国人口科学,2010(4):67-76.
[26]魏锋,孔煜.融资约束、不确定性与公司投资行为——基于我国制造业上市公司的实证分析[J].中国软科学,2005(3):43-49.