人民币实际有效汇率对中美贸易的影响——基于全球价值链视角的分析
|
摘要
全球价值链深入发展对全球的产业特征和贸易格局产生了深远的影响,也影响了汇率对进出口贸易的影响机制。本文利用新的全球价值链分行业实际有效汇率测算方法,测算中美分行业全球价值链实际有效汇率,并重点分析有效汇率与中美进出口的关系。研究发现:(1)中国对美国的出口实际有效汇率在电子和光学仪器制造业、运输设备制造业以及纺织业等制造业中呈现先下降后上升趋势。1995-2005年基本上处于下降趋势,尤其是2001年中国加入WTO后,中美出口实际有效汇率出现了大幅贬值,制造业竞争力迅速提升。2005年中国汇率制度改革后,受名义汇率升值的影响,中国对美国制造业出口实际有效汇率处于稳步升值状态。(2)总体上来看,汇率与出口呈负相关性,且全球价值链分行业出口有效汇率与中国对美国的出口的负相关性相对最强。(3)与传统汇率指标相比,全球价值链双边分行业出口(进口)实际有效汇率指标具有更明显的优势,有效地解决了"人民币升值减少中国出口"的悖论。
The further development of global value chains has had not only a profound impact on global industrial characteristics and trade patterns, but also on the channel through which exchange rates affect imports and exports. This paper proposes a new measure of REERs(Real Effective Exchange Rates) by sector within a specific country in the setting of global value chains, calculates REERs by sector within China and US for their bilateral trade, and focuses on the relationship between effective exchange rate and Sino-US trade. Our results show that, firstly, in the manufacturing sector such as manufacturing of electronic and optical products transportation equipment and textiles, the REER for Chinese exports to US exhibits the tendency of decreasing at first and then increasing. The REER declined between 1995 and 2005. Especially after China joining the WTO in 2001, the Sino-US export REER experienced a sharp depreciation and the competiveness of the manufacturing sector increased rapidly. After the reform of China's exchange rate system in 2005, the Sino-US export REER for the manufacturing sector appreciated steadily due to the appreciation of nominal exchange rates. Secondly, on the whole, exchange rates and export are negatively correlated, and the negative correlation between global value chains REER at the sector level and Chinese export to US are the strongest. Thirdly, in contrast to the conventional exchange rate indices, global value chains REER for bilateral export or import at the sector level have obvious advantages and effectively solve the paradox that the appreciation of RMB reduces China's exports.
The further development of global value chains has had not only a profound impact on global industrial characteristics and trade patterns, but also on the channel through which exchange rates affect imports and exports. This paper proposes a new measure of REERs(Real Effective Exchange Rates) by sector within a specific country in the setting of global value chains, calculates REERs by sector within China and US for their bilateral trade, and focuses on the relationship between effective exchange rate and Sino-US trade. Our results show that, firstly, in the manufacturing sector such as manufacturing of electronic and optical products transportation equipment and textiles, the REER for Chinese exports to US exhibits the tendency of decreasing at first and then increasing. The REER declined between 1995 and 2005. Especially after China joining the WTO in 2001, the Sino-US export REER experienced a sharp depreciation and the competiveness of the manufacturing sector increased rapidly. After the reform of China's exchange rate system in 2005, the Sino-US export REER for the manufacturing sector appreciated steadily due to the appreciation of nominal exchange rates. Secondly, on the whole, exchange rates and export are negatively correlated, and the negative correlation between global value chains REER at the sector level and Chinese export to US are the strongest. Thirdly, in contrast to the conventional exchange rate indices, global value chains REER for bilateral export or import at the sector level have obvious advantages and effectively solve the paradox that the appreciation of RMB reduces China's exports.
引文
巴曙松吴博朱元倩,2007:《关于实际有效汇率计算方法的比较与评述——兼论对人民币实际有效汇率指数的构建》,《管理世界》第12期。
陈彪如,1992:《人民币汇率研究》,华东师范大学出版社。
黄薇任若恩,2008:《中国价格竞争力变动趋势分析:基于单位劳动成本的实际有效汇率测算研究》,《世界经济》第6期。
李宏彬等,2011:《人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究》,《金融研究》第2期。
李建伟余明,2003:《人民币有效汇率的波动及其对中国经济增长的影响》,《世界经济》第11期。
刘尧成周继忠徐晓萍,2010:《人民币汇率变动对我国贸易差额的动态影响》,《经济研究》第5期。
卢向前戴国强,2005:《人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994-2003》,《经济研究》第5期。
马丹许少强,2006:《实际汇率、技术、供给能力与国际竞争力》,《国际金融研究》第6期。
倪红福,2018:《全球价值链人民币实际有效汇率:理论、测度及结构解析》,《管理世界》第7期。
倪红福龚六堂夏杰长,2018:《什么削弱了中国出口价格竞争力?——基于全球价值链分行业实际有效汇率新方法》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
万正晓,2004:《基于实际有效汇率变动趋势的人民币汇率问题研究》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第2期。
王宇雯,2009:《人民币实际有效汇率及其波动对我国出口结构的影响——基于ARDL-ECM模型的实证研究》,《数量经济与技术经济研究》第6期。
王宇哲张明,2014:《人民币升值究竟对中国出口影响几何》,《金融研究》第3期。
徐建炜田丰,2013:《中国行业层面实际有效汇率测算:2000-2009》,《世界经济》第5期。
邹宏元罗大为,2014:《人民币分行业实际有效汇率及其对我国各行业出口量的影响》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第11期。
Alexandre, F. et al(2009), “Aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy”, NIPE Working Paper, No.13.
Armington, P.A.(1969), “A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production”, IMF Staff Papers 16(1):159-178.
Bems, R. & R.C.Johnson(2012), “Value-added exchange rates”, NBER Working Paper, No.18498.
Bems, R. & R.C.Johnson(2015), “Demand for value added and value-added exchange rates”, NBER Working Paper, No.21070.
Berman, N. et al(2010), “How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications”, Society for Economic Dynamics Series, Meeting Papers, No.1338.
Dietzenbacher, E. et al(2013), “The construction of world input-output tables in the WIOD project”,Economic Systems Research 25(1):71-98.
Goldberg, L.(2004), “Industry-specific exchange rates for the United States”, Economic Policy Review 1(10):1-16.
Klau, M. & S.S.Fung(2006), “The new BIS effective exchange rate indices”,BIS quarterly Review,https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0603.htm.
Lee, J. & B.C.Yi(2006), “Industry level real effective exchange rates for Korea”, Economic Paper.
McKenzie,M.D.(1999),“The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows”,Journal of Economic Surveys 13(1):71-106.
McGuirk, A.(1987), “Measuring price competitiveness for industrial country trade in manufactures”, IMF Working Paper, No.87/34.
Patel, N. et al(2014), “Global value chains and effective exchange rates at the country-sector level”, NBER Working Paper, No.20236.
Sato, K. et al(2012), “Industry-specific real effective rates for Japan”, RIETI Discussion Paper Series, No.12-E-044.
(1)以WIOD数据库中1995-2009年全球投入产出表(WIOTs)为基础来计算全球价值链实际有效汇率的权重矩阵。WIOTs中共有40个国家(地区),外加1个世界其他地区,每个国家(地区)共有35个部门。该数据和相关详细说明来自网页:http://www.wiod.org/new_site/database/wiots.htm。Dietzenbacher et al(2013)。其他价格指数数据(GDP平减指数、名义汇率和CPI)来自IMF的WEOD(World Economic Outlook Database)。
(1)中美双边实际汇率是利用中美CPI价格指数对人民币兑美元的名义汇率进行缩减而得。
(1)值得注意是,利用固定效应方法估计的结果都不显著,但本文测算的全球价值链双边分行业进口实际有效汇率的系数为正(与传统理论相符,汇率升值促进进口),而BIS实际有效汇率和中美实际汇率的系数都为负。
陈彪如,1992:《人民币汇率研究》,华东师范大学出版社。
黄薇任若恩,2008:《中国价格竞争力变动趋势分析:基于单位劳动成本的实际有效汇率测算研究》,《世界经济》第6期。
李宏彬等,2011:《人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究》,《金融研究》第2期。
李建伟余明,2003:《人民币有效汇率的波动及其对中国经济增长的影响》,《世界经济》第11期。
刘尧成周继忠徐晓萍,2010:《人民币汇率变动对我国贸易差额的动态影响》,《经济研究》第5期。
卢向前戴国强,2005:《人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994-2003》,《经济研究》第5期。
马丹许少强,2006:《实际汇率、技术、供给能力与国际竞争力》,《国际金融研究》第6期。
倪红福,2018:《全球价值链人民币实际有效汇率:理论、测度及结构解析》,《管理世界》第7期。
倪红福龚六堂夏杰长,2018:《什么削弱了中国出口价格竞争力?——基于全球价值链分行业实际有效汇率新方法》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
万正晓,2004:《基于实际有效汇率变动趋势的人民币汇率问题研究》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第2期。
王宇雯,2009:《人民币实际有效汇率及其波动对我国出口结构的影响——基于ARDL-ECM模型的实证研究》,《数量经济与技术经济研究》第6期。
王宇哲张明,2014:《人民币升值究竟对中国出口影响几何》,《金融研究》第3期。
徐建炜田丰,2013:《中国行业层面实际有效汇率测算:2000-2009》,《世界经济》第5期。
邹宏元罗大为,2014:《人民币分行业实际有效汇率及其对我国各行业出口量的影响》,《数量经济技术经济研究》第11期。
Alexandre, F. et al(2009), “Aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy”, NIPE Working Paper, No.13.
Armington, P.A.(1969), “A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production”, IMF Staff Papers 16(1):159-178.
Bems, R. & R.C.Johnson(2012), “Value-added exchange rates”, NBER Working Paper, No.18498.
Bems, R. & R.C.Johnson(2015), “Demand for value added and value-added exchange rates”, NBER Working Paper, No.21070.
Berman, N. et al(2010), “How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications”, Society for Economic Dynamics Series, Meeting Papers, No.1338.
Dietzenbacher, E. et al(2013), “The construction of world input-output tables in the WIOD project”,Economic Systems Research 25(1):71-98.
Goldberg, L.(2004), “Industry-specific exchange rates for the United States”, Economic Policy Review 1(10):1-16.
Klau, M. & S.S.Fung(2006), “The new BIS effective exchange rate indices”,BIS quarterly Review,https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0603.htm.
Lee, J. & B.C.Yi(2006), “Industry level real effective exchange rates for Korea”, Economic Paper.
McKenzie,M.D.(1999),“The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows”,Journal of Economic Surveys 13(1):71-106.
McGuirk, A.(1987), “Measuring price competitiveness for industrial country trade in manufactures”, IMF Working Paper, No.87/34.
Patel, N. et al(2014), “Global value chains and effective exchange rates at the country-sector level”, NBER Working Paper, No.20236.
Sato, K. et al(2012), “Industry-specific real effective rates for Japan”, RIETI Discussion Paper Series, No.12-E-044.
(1)以WIOD数据库中1995-2009年全球投入产出表(WIOTs)为基础来计算全球价值链实际有效汇率的权重矩阵。WIOTs中共有40个国家(地区),外加1个世界其他地区,每个国家(地区)共有35个部门。该数据和相关详细说明来自网页:http://www.wiod.org/new_site/database/wiots.htm。Dietzenbacher et al(2013)。其他价格指数数据(GDP平减指数、名义汇率和CPI)来自IMF的WEOD(World Economic Outlook Database)。
(1)中美双边实际汇率是利用中美CPI价格指数对人民币兑美元的名义汇率进行缩减而得。
(1)值得注意是,利用固定效应方法估计的结果都不显著,但本文测算的全球价值链双边分行业进口实际有效汇率的系数为正(与传统理论相符,汇率升值促进进口),而BIS实际有效汇率和中美实际汇率的系数都为负。