气候变化科学事实及其相关问题争论评述
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摘要
当前气候政策已实施了几十年之久,但围绕着气候变化的争论始终存在,而且愈演愈烈。本文通过研究,疏理了当前在气候变化科学事实和形成原因的争论,在气候预测模型和影响评估的争论,在气候变化科学认知以及气候资源属性的争论,试图从哲学角度提出这些争论的根源:即需要另辟蹊径解决气候变化研究的不确定问题;加强气候变化科学自主性的研究;优先权制度成为了气候变化科学研究的一把双刃剑,注重对气候变化重大问题顶层设计,注重科学传播的重要性。
The current climate policy has been implemented for decades, however, the debates around climate change have been existing and persistently intensifying.In this article, we firstly clarify the current debates on the scientific facts and the causes of climate change; the debates on climate prediction models and impact assessments;the debates on scientific cognition of climate change and the attributes of climate resources. Secondly, we attempt to interpret the origin of these debates from a philosophical perspective. We think that a new path need be found to solve the uncertainties in climate change researches and to strengthen the scientific autonomy of these researches.Considering priority system has become a double-edged sword for scientific researches of climate change, the top design of major issues of climate change and importance of communication of science must be reinforced.
The current climate policy has been implemented for decades, however, the debates around climate change have been existing and persistently intensifying.In this article, we firstly clarify the current debates on the scientific facts and the causes of climate change; the debates on climate prediction models and impact assessments;the debates on scientific cognition of climate change and the attributes of climate resources. Secondly, we attempt to interpret the origin of these debates from a philosophical perspective. We think that a new path need be found to solve the uncertainties in climate change researches and to strengthen the scientific autonomy of these researches.Considering priority system has become a double-edged sword for scientific researches of climate change, the top design of major issues of climate change and importance of communication of science must be reinforced.
引文
[1]IPCC.'Climate Change 2014:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability,Part A:Global and Sectoral Aspects'[R].Cambridge University Press,2014.
[2]特朗普称气候变化是骗局.人民日报[N].2017-3-21.
[3]IPCC.'IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:Climate Change2007(AR4)'[R].Cambridge University Press,2007.
[4]秦大河.气候系统的演变及其预测[M].北京:气象出版社,2003,17-27.
[5]葛全胜、王芳等.对全球变暖认识的七个问题的确定与不确定性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,(24):1-6.
[6]Roger,J.F.,Cathy,M.T.,Marcel van der Schoot.'Atmospheric Verification of Anthropogenic CO2 Emission Trends'[J].Nature Climate Change,2013,(3)520-524.
[7]IPCC.Climate Change The Scientific Assessment[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1990.
[8]巢清尘、胡婷、张雪艳.气候变化科学评估与政治决策[J].阅江学刊,2018,(1):28-45.
[9]IPCC.'Third Assessment Report:Climate Change2001(TAR)'[R].Cambridge University Press,2001.
[10]IPCC.'Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis'[R].Cambridge University Press,2007.
[11]奈杰尔·劳森著、戴黍.呼唤理性:全球变暖的冷思考[M].李振亮译,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2011,2-26.
[12]Centre,H.'Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect'[R].2005,12-29.
[13]Hacking,I.The Emergence of Probability[M].Cambridge University Press,1975.
[14]An Editorial Comment.'Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to Policy-Makers and The Public'[J].Climatic Change,2003,(61):1-8.
[15]IPCC.'Third Assessment Report,Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report'[R].2001,2.
[16]Morgan,M.G.,Keith,D.W.'Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts'[J].Environ.Sci.Technol,1995,(29):468-476.
[17]Arent,D.,Tol,R.S.J.,Faust,E.Climate Change 2014:Impacs,Adaptation,and Vulnerability.Part A:Global and Sectoral Aspects.Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,2014,659-708.
[18]秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,(7):874-833.
[19]洪大用、范叶超.公众对气候变化认知和行为表现的国际比较[J].社会学评论,2013,(4):3-15.
[20]Tol,R.S.J.'Economic Impacts of Climate Change'[R].University of Sussex,Falmer,2015.
[21]Stern,N,H.,Peters,S.Stern Review:The Economics of Climate Change[M].London:HM Treasury,2006.
[22]Keatinge,W.,Donaldson,G.'The Impact of Global Warming on Health and Mortality'[J].Southern Medical Journal,2004,97(11):1096.
[23]Larry,B.Scared Witless:Prophets and Profits of Climate Doom[M].Stairway Press,Las Vegas,2015.
[24]Mathicas,R.On global Justice[M].Princeton University Press,2012,10
[25]Paula,C.'Global Taxes on Natural Resources'[J].Journal of Moral Philosophy,2011,(8):307-327.
[26]Alejandra,M.'The Volcanic Asymmetry,or the Question of Permanent Sovereignty Over Natural Disasters'[J].Journal of Political Philosophy,2015,(23):192-212.
[27]Nordgren,A.'Climate Change and National SelfInterest'[J].Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics,2016,(29):1043-1055.
[28]R.K.默顿著、鲁旭东.科学社会学[M].林聚任译,北京:商务印书馆,2003,136.
[29]Shwom,R.,Isenhour,C.'Integrating the Social Sciences to Enhance Climate Literacy'[J].Social Sciences in Climate Literacy,2017,(7):377-384.
[30]Dunlap,R.E.,Brulle,R.J.Climate Change and Society:Sociological Perspectives[M].Cambridge,UK:Oxford University Press,2015.
[2]特朗普称气候变化是骗局.人民日报[N].2017-3-21.
[3]IPCC.'IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:Climate Change2007(AR4)'[R].Cambridge University Press,2007.
[4]秦大河.气候系统的演变及其预测[M].北京:气象出版社,2003,17-27.
[5]葛全胜、王芳等.对全球变暖认识的七个问题的确定与不确定性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,(24):1-6.
[6]Roger,J.F.,Cathy,M.T.,Marcel van der Schoot.'Atmospheric Verification of Anthropogenic CO2 Emission Trends'[J].Nature Climate Change,2013,(3)520-524.
[7]IPCC.Climate Change The Scientific Assessment[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1990.
[8]巢清尘、胡婷、张雪艳.气候变化科学评估与政治决策[J].阅江学刊,2018,(1):28-45.
[9]IPCC.'Third Assessment Report:Climate Change2001(TAR)'[R].Cambridge University Press,2001.
[10]IPCC.'Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis'[R].Cambridge University Press,2007.
[11]奈杰尔·劳森著、戴黍.呼唤理性:全球变暖的冷思考[M].李振亮译,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2011,2-26.
[12]Centre,H.'Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect'[R].2005,12-29.
[13]Hacking,I.The Emergence of Probability[M].Cambridge University Press,1975.
[14]An Editorial Comment.'Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty to Policy-Makers and The Public'[J].Climatic Change,2003,(61):1-8.
[15]IPCC.'Third Assessment Report,Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report'[R].2001,2.
[16]Morgan,M.G.,Keith,D.W.'Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts'[J].Environ.Sci.Technol,1995,(29):468-476.
[17]Arent,D.,Tol,R.S.J.,Faust,E.Climate Change 2014:Impacs,Adaptation,and Vulnerability.Part A:Global and Sectoral Aspects.Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,2014,659-708.
[18]秦大河.气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J].地理科学进展,2014,(7):874-833.
[19]洪大用、范叶超.公众对气候变化认知和行为表现的国际比较[J].社会学评论,2013,(4):3-15.
[20]Tol,R.S.J.'Economic Impacts of Climate Change'[R].University of Sussex,Falmer,2015.
[21]Stern,N,H.,Peters,S.Stern Review:The Economics of Climate Change[M].London:HM Treasury,2006.
[22]Keatinge,W.,Donaldson,G.'The Impact of Global Warming on Health and Mortality'[J].Southern Medical Journal,2004,97(11):1096.
[23]Larry,B.Scared Witless:Prophets and Profits of Climate Doom[M].Stairway Press,Las Vegas,2015.
[24]Mathicas,R.On global Justice[M].Princeton University Press,2012,10
[25]Paula,C.'Global Taxes on Natural Resources'[J].Journal of Moral Philosophy,2011,(8):307-327.
[26]Alejandra,M.'The Volcanic Asymmetry,or the Question of Permanent Sovereignty Over Natural Disasters'[J].Journal of Political Philosophy,2015,(23):192-212.
[27]Nordgren,A.'Climate Change and National SelfInterest'[J].Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics,2016,(29):1043-1055.
[28]R.K.默顿著、鲁旭东.科学社会学[M].林聚任译,北京:商务印书馆,2003,136.
[29]Shwom,R.,Isenhour,C.'Integrating the Social Sciences to Enhance Climate Literacy'[J].Social Sciences in Climate Literacy,2017,(7):377-384.
[30]Dunlap,R.E.,Brulle,R.J.Climate Change and Society:Sociological Perspectives[M].Cambridge,UK:Oxford University Press,2015.