高原民族地区人口流动特征与模式研究——基于西藏自治区的考察
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摘要
基于人口普查数据,通过统计分析和Q方法考察了西藏人口流动中的结构特征与空间模式。研究显示:西藏本地人口流动性较弱,且与跨省流动人口分化趋势明显;流动人口不断男性化、年轻化,且拥有较高的文化水平;就业形态从传统农牧业向现代服务业转变;流动时间由"短期流动"转变为"长期流动",生育水平较低,经济因素成为人口流动主要动因。空间模式上,总体呈"低强度"、"单向性"与"近距离"迁移特征。流动人口供给和吸引力的"一极化"态势有所减弱,但"多极化"态势并未形塑。人口流出强度较小,主要流向与西藏邻近省份,流动半径较小。人口流入与流出模式深受地理近邻性、民族文化因素影响,显示出浓郁的高原民族特色。
Based on the census data, the structural characteristics and spatial patterns of population movement in Tibet were investigated through statistical analysis and Q method. The study showed that the migration of local population of Tibet was relatively weak, and the trend of cross-provincial floating of population was obvious. The floating population was masculine and young, and had a higher education level. The employment pattern had changed from traditional agriculture and animal husbandry to modern service industry. The flow time had changed from "short-term flow" to "long-term flow", and the fertility level was low, and economic factors had become the main cause of population movement. In the spatial mode, the overall migration characteristics showed the "low intensity", "unidirectionality" and "close range" trend. The "polarization" situation of the supply and attractiveness of the floating population had weakened, but the "multi-polarization" situation had not been shaped. The population outflow intensity was small, mainly flowing to neighboring provinces, and the flow radius was small. The population inflow and outflow patterns were deeply influenced by geographical proximity and national cultural factors, showing a strong plateau national characteristic.
Based on the census data, the structural characteristics and spatial patterns of population movement in Tibet were investigated through statistical analysis and Q method. The study showed that the migration of local population of Tibet was relatively weak, and the trend of cross-provincial floating of population was obvious. The floating population was masculine and young, and had a higher education level. The employment pattern had changed from traditional agriculture and animal husbandry to modern service industry. The flow time had changed from "short-term flow" to "long-term flow", and the fertility level was low, and economic factors had become the main cause of population movement. In the spatial mode, the overall migration characteristics showed the "low intensity", "unidirectionality" and "close range" trend. The "polarization" situation of the supply and attractiveness of the floating population had weakened, but the "multi-polarization" situation had not been shaped. The population outflow intensity was small, mainly flowing to neighboring provinces, and the flow radius was small. The population inflow and outflow patterns were deeply influenced by geographical proximity and national cultural factors, showing a strong plateau national characteristic.
引文
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[3] 周皓.人口流动对生育水平的影响:基于选择性的分析[J].人口研究,2015,39(1):14-28.
[4] 西藏自治区第六次全国人口普查办公室.迈向小康社会的中国人口(西藏卷)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015:220.
[5] 杜小敏,陈建宝.人口迁移与流动对我国各地区经济影响的实证分析[J].人口研究,2010,34(3):77-88.
[6] 颜咏华,郭志仪.中国人口流动迁移对城市化进程影响的实证分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(10):103-110.
[7] 赵君.西藏城镇化进程中流动人口对族际关系的影响[N].中国民族报,2016-4-15(6).
[8] 李健.人口流动、族群结构与族际关系-关于西藏山南地区泽当镇的实证调查研究[J].中国藏学,2012(2):26-32.