限制固体废弃物进口的环境与经济效应
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摘要
我国政府于2017年开始推动固体废弃物进口管理的改革,并计划于2019年逐步限制国内资源可替代的固体废弃物进口。限制固体废弃物进口将有效地减少进口固废处理中造成的生态环境破坏和居民健康危害,但进口的废品废料是我国某些产业的重要原材料,限制固体废弃物进口可能会对宏观经济和产业发展造成一定的损失。基于2015年中国投入产出表,本研究构建可计算一般均衡模型,模拟分析限制固体废弃物进口的环境与经济影响。本文的研究结果表明,如果限制固体废弃物进口,我国宏观经济和产业产出将遭遇一定的损失。随着国内废弃物资源价格升高,国内废弃物回收行业的活动水平将得到有效提升,从而提高国内资源回收率、减少资源浪费,同时减少废弃物焚烧、填埋造成的环境污染和土地资源占用。潜在的环境效益可能抵消限制固体废弃物进口造成的宏观经济损失。本文建议未来应该允许适度进口环境危害较小的废弃物,并进一步加强固体废弃物进口的管理,更重要的是提高国内废品废料回收行业的生产效率,进一步提高国内资源回收率,减少生态环境破坏。
Since 2017 the government have accelerated the reform of solid-waste-import management, and claimed to restrict the solid waste imports which could be substituted by domestic materials by 2019. The restriction of solid waste imports would effectively reduce the ecological and environmental damages as well as residents' healthy losses produced in the process and recycling. But the imported solid wastes are important material inputs for some industries in China. As a result, the restriction of solid waste imports would possibly cause damage to China's macro-economy and industrial development. Based on China's 2015 input-output table, this study uses the computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of the restriction of solid waste imports. Our results suggest that China's macro-economy and industrial output are negatively affected by the restriction of solid waste imports. As the domestic waste prices rise, the improvement on production activity of waste recycling industry could raise the resource recycling efficiency, reduce resource wastes, and cut down the environmental pollution and land resource utilization from burning and dumping solid wastes. The possible environmental benefits may offset the economic losses caused by the restriction of solid waste imports. The policy suggestions of this paper include allowing the imports of the solid waste with slight environmental impacts, strengthening the governance of solid waste imports, more importantly, raising the producing efficiency of domestic waste recycling industry in order to lift the resource recycling rate and reduce environmental and ecological damages.
Since 2017 the government have accelerated the reform of solid-waste-import management, and claimed to restrict the solid waste imports which could be substituted by domestic materials by 2019. The restriction of solid waste imports would effectively reduce the ecological and environmental damages as well as residents' healthy losses produced in the process and recycling. But the imported solid wastes are important material inputs for some industries in China. As a result, the restriction of solid waste imports would possibly cause damage to China's macro-economy and industrial development. Based on China's 2015 input-output table, this study uses the computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of the restriction of solid waste imports. Our results suggest that China's macro-economy and industrial output are negatively affected by the restriction of solid waste imports. As the domestic waste prices rise, the improvement on production activity of waste recycling industry could raise the resource recycling efficiency, reduce resource wastes, and cut down the environmental pollution and land resource utilization from burning and dumping solid wastes. The possible environmental benefits may offset the economic losses caused by the restriction of solid waste imports. The policy suggestions of this paper include allowing the imports of the solid waste with slight environmental impacts, strengthening the governance of solid waste imports, more importantly, raising the producing efficiency of domestic waste recycling industry in order to lift the resource recycling rate and reduce environmental and ecological damages.
引文
[1]冯久田. 基于循环经济的生态工业理论研究与实证分析[D]. 武汉:武汉理工大学,2005.
[2]高纯金. 我国应停止外国废物进口业务[J]. 国际贸易问题,2001,(9):40-42.
[3]高松. 我国高风险进口产品的现状及分析——可利用固体废物进口现状及管制措施研究[J]. 生态经济,2007,(11):112-114.
[4]国家统计局国民经济核算司. 中国2012年投入产出表编制方法[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,2014.
[5]何雄浪,朱旭光. 发展我国城市废弃物循环经济的理论与实践思考[J]. 当代经济管理,2008,30(11):15-18.
[6]胡东宁. 国际废纸贸易的现状分析与再生资源贸易的政策研究[J]. 湖北社会科学,2011,(1):101-103.
[7]蒋文强. 循环经济下我国固体废弃物的贸易探究[J]. 市场研究,2017,(7):6-7.
[8]鞠红岩,李淑媛,兰孝峰,刘刚,姚杰. 进口废纸再生利用环境风险研究[J]. 环境与可持续发展,2015,40(5):38-40.
[9]兰孝峰, 鞠红岩, 刘刚,李淑媛. 加强进口废物管理防范环境污染风险[J]. 环境与可持续发展,2016,41(5):64-67.
[10]李华友,冯东方. 我国进口废物污染控制的制度困局[J]. 环境经济,2007,(5):48-52.
[11]刘景洋,段宁,杨勇,郭玉文,乔琦. 废旧冰箱拆解及聚氨酯泡沫放置的一氟三氯甲烷释放量研究[J]. 环境污染与防治,2010,32(7):1-4.
[12]刘天蓉. 新版《进口废物管理目录》发布[J]. 纸和造纸,2017,(5):66-66.
[13]刘伟,孙际洲. 固体废物进口政策调控分析及展望[J]. 再生资源与循环经济,2017,10(9):21-24.
[14]牛海霞. 跨国污染转移对中国的渗透特征及治理研究[D]. 杭州:浙江大学,2010.
[15]石聪颖,杜彬. 试析我国废纸进口贸易所带来的环境问题[J]. 中国集体经济,2018,(13):15-17.
[16]孙淑琴. 再生资源的贸易、失业及社会福利—基于二元经济模型的分析[J]. 经济科学,2013,35(4):54-64.
[17]王晶. 资源循环利用的经济效应分析[J]. 经济经纬,2007,(5):30-32.
[18]杨华. 透视废弃物国际贸易问题[J]. 环境保护,2009,(18):73-75.
[19]杨彦,于云江,李定龙,杨洁. 不同电子废弃物拆解场重金属经口暴露的健康风险研究[J]. 环境科学学报, 2012,32(4):974-983.
[20]曾现来,闫晓宇,张宇平,缪友萍,李金惠. 中国资源的进出口与产出率:演化、挑战及对策[J]. 自然资源学报,2018,33(4):552-562.
[21]赵燕. 我国固体废弃物进口贸易与再利用现状及对策建议[D]. 青岛:青岛大学,2015.
[22]郑洋,邱琦,李淑媛,鞠红岩,张喆. 加强废物进口环境管理防范环境风险对策研究[J]. 环境与可持续发展,2011,36(6):30-33.
[23]周密. 禁止进口固体废弃物的逻辑与前景[J]. 世界知识,2018,(3):13.
[24]Horridge, M. ORANI-G: A Generic Single-Country Computable General Equilibrium Model[R]. 2003.
[25]Armington, P. S. A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production[R]. 1969.
[26]Armington, P. S. Adjustment of Trade Balances: Some Experiments with a Model of Trade among Many Countries[R]. 1970.
[27]Hertel, T. Warren. Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications[M]. UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997.
[28]Mai, Y. The MONASH-Multi-Country (MMC) Model and the Investment Liberalisation in China's Oil Industry[R]. 2004.
(1)数据来源于中经网统计数据库:http://db.cei.cn/page/Default.aspx。
(2)由于篇幅限制,这里不再详细介绍ORANI-G模型的投资、居民、政府、贸易等部分的数学表达式,感兴趣的读者请见Horridge(2003)和Mai(2004)。
(3)由于ORANI-G模型数据库庞大,难以在文中展示,感兴趣的读者可以与本文作者联系。
[2]高纯金. 我国应停止外国废物进口业务[J]. 国际贸易问题,2001,(9):40-42.
[3]高松. 我国高风险进口产品的现状及分析——可利用固体废物进口现状及管制措施研究[J]. 生态经济,2007,(11):112-114.
[4]国家统计局国民经济核算司. 中国2012年投入产出表编制方法[M]. 北京:中国统计出版社,2014.
[5]何雄浪,朱旭光. 发展我国城市废弃物循环经济的理论与实践思考[J]. 当代经济管理,2008,30(11):15-18.
[6]胡东宁. 国际废纸贸易的现状分析与再生资源贸易的政策研究[J]. 湖北社会科学,2011,(1):101-103.
[7]蒋文强. 循环经济下我国固体废弃物的贸易探究[J]. 市场研究,2017,(7):6-7.
[8]鞠红岩,李淑媛,兰孝峰,刘刚,姚杰. 进口废纸再生利用环境风险研究[J]. 环境与可持续发展,2015,40(5):38-40.
[9]兰孝峰, 鞠红岩, 刘刚,李淑媛. 加强进口废物管理防范环境污染风险[J]. 环境与可持续发展,2016,41(5):64-67.
[10]李华友,冯东方. 我国进口废物污染控制的制度困局[J]. 环境经济,2007,(5):48-52.
[11]刘景洋,段宁,杨勇,郭玉文,乔琦. 废旧冰箱拆解及聚氨酯泡沫放置的一氟三氯甲烷释放量研究[J]. 环境污染与防治,2010,32(7):1-4.
[12]刘天蓉. 新版《进口废物管理目录》发布[J]. 纸和造纸,2017,(5):66-66.
[13]刘伟,孙际洲. 固体废物进口政策调控分析及展望[J]. 再生资源与循环经济,2017,10(9):21-24.
[14]牛海霞. 跨国污染转移对中国的渗透特征及治理研究[D]. 杭州:浙江大学,2010.
[15]石聪颖,杜彬. 试析我国废纸进口贸易所带来的环境问题[J]. 中国集体经济,2018,(13):15-17.
[16]孙淑琴. 再生资源的贸易、失业及社会福利—基于二元经济模型的分析[J]. 经济科学,2013,35(4):54-64.
[17]王晶. 资源循环利用的经济效应分析[J]. 经济经纬,2007,(5):30-32.
[18]杨华. 透视废弃物国际贸易问题[J]. 环境保护,2009,(18):73-75.
[19]杨彦,于云江,李定龙,杨洁. 不同电子废弃物拆解场重金属经口暴露的健康风险研究[J]. 环境科学学报, 2012,32(4):974-983.
[20]曾现来,闫晓宇,张宇平,缪友萍,李金惠. 中国资源的进出口与产出率:演化、挑战及对策[J]. 自然资源学报,2018,33(4):552-562.
[21]赵燕. 我国固体废弃物进口贸易与再利用现状及对策建议[D]. 青岛:青岛大学,2015.
[22]郑洋,邱琦,李淑媛,鞠红岩,张喆. 加强废物进口环境管理防范环境风险对策研究[J]. 环境与可持续发展,2011,36(6):30-33.
[23]周密. 禁止进口固体废弃物的逻辑与前景[J]. 世界知识,2018,(3):13.
[24]Horridge, M. ORANI-G: A Generic Single-Country Computable General Equilibrium Model[R]. 2003.
[25]Armington, P. S. A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production[R]. 1969.
[26]Armington, P. S. Adjustment of Trade Balances: Some Experiments with a Model of Trade among Many Countries[R]. 1970.
[27]Hertel, T. Warren. Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications[M]. UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997.
[28]Mai, Y. The MONASH-Multi-Country (MMC) Model and the Investment Liberalisation in China's Oil Industry[R]. 2004.
(1)数据来源于中经网统计数据库:http://db.cei.cn/page/Default.aspx。
(2)由于篇幅限制,这里不再详细介绍ORANI-G模型的投资、居民、政府、贸易等部分的数学表达式,感兴趣的读者请见Horridge(2003)和Mai(2004)。
(3)由于ORANI-G模型数据库庞大,难以在文中展示,感兴趣的读者可以与本文作者联系。