城镇化进程中人口结构对碳排放的影响分析——以江苏省为例
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摘要
通过将人口结构细化为多个指标作为变量,结合江苏省历年数据,利用时间序列VAR模型考察现阶段人口结构各变量对江苏省碳排放的影响程度,结果显示:在江苏省的碳排放总量中,年龄结构、性别结构、家庭结构、教育结构和城乡结构对碳排放存在不同程度的影响,并呈现出长期均衡的态势。其中,年龄结构中,碳排放随着老龄人口数量的增加呈U型变化;城乡结构中,碳排放随着城镇人口数量的增加呈倒U型变化趋势;教育结构中,较高学历人口在未来对碳排放有显著的抑制效果;家庭结构在短期对碳排放有较强抑制作用,但长期抑制效果逐渐减弱;性别结构与碳排放之间的关系并不显著。最后,为江苏省未来的人口政策和绿色低碳经济提供政策建议。
This research uses the time series VAR model to examine the impact of population structure variables to the carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province by dividing the population structure into multiple variables,combined with the historical data of Jiangsu Province. The results show that among the total emissions,age structure,gender structure,family structure,education structure,and urban-rural structure have different degrees of impact on carbon emissions,and show a long-term equilibrium.The aging population in the age structure is in a U-shaped relationship with carbon emissions; the urban population in the urban-rural structure( urbanization level) is inverse U-shaped in relation to carbon emissions; the education structure has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the long term; In the short term,the family structure has a strong inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,but this effect will be gradually weakened in the long term; the impact of gender structure on carbon emissions is not significant. Finally,based on the conclusions,this research provides policy recommendations for the future development of the population policy and the development of a green,low-carbon economy in Jiangsu Province.
This research uses the time series VAR model to examine the impact of population structure variables to the carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province by dividing the population structure into multiple variables,combined with the historical data of Jiangsu Province. The results show that among the total emissions,age structure,gender structure,family structure,education structure,and urban-rural structure have different degrees of impact on carbon emissions,and show a long-term equilibrium.The aging population in the age structure is in a U-shaped relationship with carbon emissions; the urban population in the urban-rural structure( urbanization level) is inverse U-shaped in relation to carbon emissions; the education structure has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the long term; In the short term,the family structure has a strong inhibitory effect on carbon emissions,but this effect will be gradually weakened in the long term; the impact of gender structure on carbon emissions is not significant. Finally,based on the conclusions,this research provides policy recommendations for the future development of the population policy and the development of a green,low-carbon economy in Jiangsu Province.
引文
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[15]郭文,孙涛.人口结构变动对中国能源消费碳排放的影响——基于城镇化和居民消费视角[J].数理统计与管理,2017,36(02):295-312.
[2]Rose EA,York R,Dietz T. Tracking the authropogenic drivers of ecological impacts[J]. AMBIO:A Journal of the Human Environment,2004,33(8):509-512.
[3]O’Neil B C,Liddle B,Jiang L,et. al. Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions[J]. The Lancet,2012,380(9837):157-164.
[4] Satterthwaite D. The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change[J]. Environment and Urbanization,2009,21(2):545-567.
[5]Liddle B,Lung S. Age-structure,urbanization,and climate change in developed countries:revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption-related environmental impacts[J]. Population and Environment,2010,31(5):317-343.
[6] Okada A. Is an increased elderly population related to decreased CO2 emissions from road transportation[J].Energy Policy,2012,45(6):286-292.
[7]Leiwen Jiang. Living Conditions of the Floating Population in Urban China[J]. Population Research,2005,21(5):719-744.
[8]吕越,陈忠清.浙江省城市化与生态环境协调度及其胁迫关系探讨[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(03):160-164.
[9]朱勤,魏涛远.居民消费视角下人口城镇化对碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):21-29.
[10]彭希哲,朱勤.我国人口态势与消费模式对碳排放的影响分析[J].人口研究,2010,34(01):48-58.
[11]傅崇辉,王文军,曾序春,张玲华,雷光和.生活能源消费的人口敏感性分析——以中国城镇家庭户为例[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):1933-1944.
[12]张玉周.中国人口年龄结构变动对能源消费的影响研究——基于省际动态面板数据的GMM分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(11):69-74.
[13]王芳,周兴.人口结构、城镇化与碳排放——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国人口科学,2012(02):47-56+111.
[14]李飞越.老龄化、城镇化与碳排放——基于1995-2012年中国省级动态面板的研究[J].人口与经济,2015(04):9-18.
[15]郭文,孙涛.人口结构变动对中国能源消费碳排放的影响——基于城镇化和居民消费视角[J].数理统计与管理,2017,36(02):295-312.