乡村振兴背景下的“人、地、业”转型空间差异及影响因素分析——以重庆市渝北区为例
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摘要
为探索乡村"人口、土地利用、产业"3要素转型空间的差异及影响因素,了解单要素转型加速的核心影响因素对乡村转型可持续发展的影响,运用均方差赋权法从"人口、土地利用、产业"测算重庆市渝北区近郊2镇2010年与2017年乡村转型度,对比3要素对乡村转型度贡献率,分别得到3要素转型优势区域(A区、B区、C区);并从自然条件、区位条件及经济条件3方面选取6个影响因素,采用地理探测器模型,探测各因素对3要素转型度及转型优势区决定力大小.结果显示:①研究区人口转型特征明显,产业次之,土地利用转型最差,各转型优势区村数量从大到小依次为A区、B区、C区;②影响因素探测显示,农村耕地数量、农村经济总收入、坡度、到主要交通干道距离分别是影响近郊区乡村"人口、土地利用、产业"转型加速的主要因素.统筹不同区位乡村发展速度、稳固农村经济社会发展态势、保护农村耕地数量、稳步推进农业产业结构升级是实现近郊区乡村高质量发展的关键.
The coordinated development of rural "population, land use and industry" is the necessary condition for rural revitalization. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the difference in transformation degree of these 3 factors and to clarify the core influencing factors for fostering their sustainable transformation. In the paper, the transformation degree of population, land use and industry of 2 peri-urban towns in Yubei District of Chongqing in 2010 and 2017 is first calculated with the mean variance empowerment method and their advantageous regions are identified as Regions A, B and C, then the contributions of the three factors to rural transformation are compared and, finally, 6 influencing factors are selected from the aspects of natural, location and economic conditions to explore the determinant power of these factors for transformation degree, using a geographical detector model. The results show that population transformation is more visible than industry transformation and land use transformation, which is different from previous researches and the number of fastest transformation villages of each evaluation target is population > industry > land use. The factor detector analysis indicates that the amount of rural cultivated land, rural GDP, and the slope, the distance to the main roads and amount of rural cultivated land are the dominant factors affecting the rural population transformation degree, the land use transformation degree and industrial transformation degree of the peri-urban areas, respectively. Therefore, coordination of the development speed of rural areas in different locations is the key to realizing a sustainable development of rural areas, creating a stable development environment, protecting the amount of rural cultivated land and promoting the upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure.
The coordinated development of rural "population, land use and industry" is the necessary condition for rural revitalization. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the difference in transformation degree of these 3 factors and to clarify the core influencing factors for fostering their sustainable transformation. In the paper, the transformation degree of population, land use and industry of 2 peri-urban towns in Yubei District of Chongqing in 2010 and 2017 is first calculated with the mean variance empowerment method and their advantageous regions are identified as Regions A, B and C, then the contributions of the three factors to rural transformation are compared and, finally, 6 influencing factors are selected from the aspects of natural, location and economic conditions to explore the determinant power of these factors for transformation degree, using a geographical detector model. The results show that population transformation is more visible than industry transformation and land use transformation, which is different from previous researches and the number of fastest transformation villages of each evaluation target is population > industry > land use. The factor detector analysis indicates that the amount of rural cultivated land, rural GDP, and the slope, the distance to the main roads and amount of rural cultivated land are the dominant factors affecting the rural population transformation degree, the land use transformation degree and industrial transformation degree of the peri-urban areas, respectively. Therefore, coordination of the development speed of rural areas in different locations is the key to realizing a sustainable development of rural areas, creating a stable development environment, protecting the amount of rural cultivated land and promoting the upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure.
引文
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[22] 湛东升, 张文忠, 余建辉, 等. 基于地理探测器的北京市居民宜居满意度影响机理 [J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(8): 966-975.
[23] 刘彦随, 杨忍. 中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理 [J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(8): 1011-1020.
[2] 龙花楼. 论土地利用转型与乡村转型发展 [J]. 地理科学进展, 2012, 31(2): 131-138.
[3] 李婷婷, 龙花楼. 基于转型与协调视角的乡村发展分析: 以山东省为例 [J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(4): 531-541.
[4] 李婷婷, 龙花楼. 基于“人口-土地-产业”视角的乡村转型发展研究——以山东省为例 [J]. 经济地理, 2015, 35(10): 149-155+138.
[5] 龙花楼, 屠爽爽. 论乡村重构 [J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(4): 563-576.
[6] 李志江, 马晓冬, 孙姗姗. 苏北乡村转型与土地利用转型的耦合分析——以沛县为例 [J]. 江苏师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 33(1): 36-39.
[7] 陈哲, 蔡建明, 崔莉, 等. 乡村转型发展产业驱动机制: 以盘锦乡村旅游为例 [J]. 农业现代化研究, 2016, 37(1): 143-150.
[8] 杭帆, 郭建雄. 人口转型与中国农业可持续增长 [J]. 西北人口, 2017, 38(6): 9-17.
[9] 杨忍, 刘彦随, 龙花楼. 中国环渤海地区人口-土地-产业非农化转型协同演化特征 [J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(3): 475-486.
[10] 李涛, 廖和平, 杨伟, 等. 重庆市“人口、 土地、 产业”城镇化质量的时空分异及耦合协调性 [J]. 经济地理, 2015, 35(5): 65-71.
[11] 廖仕梅, 刘卫平, 谢德体, 等. 乡村转型视角下山地丘陵区农地规模经营影响因素与分区 [J]. 农业资源与环境学报, 2018, 35(2): 181-188.
[12] 王艳飞, 刘彦随, 李玉恒. 乡村转型发展格局与驱动机制的区域性分析 [J]. 经济地理, 2016, 36(5): 135-142.
[13] 覃肖良, 吴乐, 刘黎明. 石灰岩贫困山区农户土地利用转型影响因素研究 [J]. 中国农学通报, 2018, 34(9): 157-164.
[14] 贺艳华, 范曙光, 周国华, 等. 基于主体功能区划的湖南省乡村转型发展评价 [J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(5): 667-676.
[15] SIMON KUZNETS. Modern Economic Growth: Rate Structure and Spread [M]. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1980: 52-55.
[16] 李涛, 廖和平, 褚远恒, 等. 重庆市农地非农化空间非均衡及形成机理 [J]. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(11): 1844-1857.
[17] 刘彦随, 李进涛. 中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策 [J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 161-173.
[18] 原野, 师学义, 牛姝烨, 等. 基于GWR模型的晋城市村庄空心化驱动力研究 [J]. 经济地理, 2015, 35(7): 148-155.
[19] 约翰·冯·杜能. 孤立国同农业和国民经济的关系 [M]. 北京: 商务印书馆, 1986.
[20] 王库. 基于地理权重回归模型的土壤有机质空间预测 [J]. 土壤通报, 2013, 44(1): 21-28.
[21] WANG J F, LI X H, CHRISTAKOS G, et al. Geographical Detectors-Based Health Risk Assessment and Its Application in the Neural Tube Defects Study of the Heshun Region, China [J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2010, 24(1): 107-127.
[22] 湛东升, 张文忠, 余建辉, 等. 基于地理探测器的北京市居民宜居满意度影响机理 [J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(8): 966-975.
[23] 刘彦随, 杨忍. 中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理 [J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(8): 1011-1020.