河北省人均预期寿命测算与影响因素分析
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摘要
人均预期寿命是世界上通用的衡量一个国家或地区现阶段经济社会发展水平及医疗卫生服务水平的综合指标。国家统计局会在人口普查年份(如2000年、2010年)公布全国和各省的人均预期寿命数据,其他普通年份则没有公布数据。随着中共中央、国务院关于《"健康中国2030"规划纲要》的颁布,人们开始关注每年度的人均预期寿命。根据河北省人口五普、六普数据和省统计局年度人口抽查数据以及河北省卫生健康委员会全员数据库(PIS数据)和河北省疾控中心死因检测数据库(CDC数据),对河北省2015—2017年人均预期寿命进行测算,结合各年龄段死亡率、国家和省人均预期寿命总体变化趋势以及国际人均预期寿命变化轨迹,综合后得到2015—2017年河北人均预期寿命,对影响河北省人均寿命的各种影响因素进行分析。
life expectancy is a universal indicator to measure the level of economic and social development and the level of medical and health services in a country or region. The national bureau of statistics releases national and provincial life expectancy data in census years(such as 2000 and 2010),while it does not release data in other ordinary years. With the promulgation of the outline of the "healthy China 2030" plan by the CPC central committee and the state council,people begin to pay attention to the average life expectancy in each year. By using six's fifth census,the province's population data,and provincial bureau of statistics, the annual population sampling data, and health in Hebei province committee full database data(PIS) and the centers for disease control and the cause of death in Hebei province examination database data(CDC),This paper calculated life expectancy in Hebei province in 2015-2017,to predict life expectancy from three aspects,including mortality from all ages, national and provincial overall life expectancy trends and international change path, get the composite Hebei life expectancy after 2015-2017. Based on the analysis,the future development of Hebei life expectancy is prospected.
life expectancy is a universal indicator to measure the level of economic and social development and the level of medical and health services in a country or region. The national bureau of statistics releases national and provincial life expectancy data in census years(such as 2000 and 2010),while it does not release data in other ordinary years. With the promulgation of the outline of the "healthy China 2030" plan by the CPC central committee and the state council,people begin to pay attention to the average life expectancy in each year. By using six's fifth census,the province's population data,and provincial bureau of statistics, the annual population sampling data, and health in Hebei province committee full database data(PIS) and the centers for disease control and the cause of death in Hebei province examination database data(CDC),This paper calculated life expectancy in Hebei province in 2015-2017,to predict life expectancy from three aspects,including mortality from all ages, national and provincial overall life expectancy trends and international change path, get the composite Hebei life expectancy after 2015-2017. Based on the analysis,the future development of Hebei life expectancy is prospected.
引文
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[4]王森.我国人口预期寿命的结构及影响因素研究———基于省级面板数据的分析[J].西北人口,2014,35(3):37-42.
[5]王有鑫.人口老龄化对出口的影响:理论和实证的分析[D].天津:南开大学,2014.
[6]刘羽帆,吴江.人均预期寿命背景下延迟退休的决策依据探讨[J].开发研究,2015(1):142-146.
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[8]耿志祥,孙祁祥.人口老龄化、延迟退休与二次人口红利[J].金融研究,2017(1):52-68.
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