新格局下中国人口经济关系的几个认识误区
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摘要
中国经济奇迹的取得确实是利用了有利人口因素,但后者仅仅是奇迹取得的诸多因素之一,并非充要条件。人口转变迟早会对经济发展带来挑战,这是人口经济过程中的共性问题,并非人口控制政策所导致。中国现在和将来一个较长时期必须应对的是更加复杂的人口数量、结构和质量的综合性矛盾,不能将面临的人口经济问题简单归之于人口控制政策。人口规模大并不是国力强盛和民族复兴的必然表现形式,国家的实力和人民的福祉与人口规模之间的关系在当代已经渐行渐远。将人口增长看成经济增长的必要条件,可能模糊新常态下人口经济关系的焦点。以经济增长为目标来制定人口政策,是舍本逐末,一切应该以人民的社会福利提高和人的全面发展为依归。
China's economic miracle can be attributed to the effective leverage of its demographic advantage. However, demography is just one of the many factors of economic growth. While China's demographic transition poses a great challenge to its economy, this is a common feature in all demographic economic processes, and cannot be simply blamed on China's population control policies. While quantity used to be the major population and economic problem facing China, at present and in the future the problem is characterized by a more complex nature involving population size, structure and quality impacting on economic development. A large population size does not equal a country success, and has become increasingly decoupled from hard or soft power in the post-agricultural era. Considering population growth as a necessary condition for economic growth may blur the focus of population economic relations in the new development stage. Instead of using economic growth as a goal for designing population policies, policymakers should make their only priorities the improvement of the people's social wellbeing and the realization of their potential.
China's economic miracle can be attributed to the effective leverage of its demographic advantage. However, demography is just one of the many factors of economic growth. While China's demographic transition poses a great challenge to its economy, this is a common feature in all demographic economic processes, and cannot be simply blamed on China's population control policies. While quantity used to be the major population and economic problem facing China, at present and in the future the problem is characterized by a more complex nature involving population size, structure and quality impacting on economic development. A large population size does not equal a country success, and has become increasingly decoupled from hard or soft power in the post-agricultural era. Considering population growth as a necessary condition for economic growth may blur the focus of population economic relations in the new development stage. Instead of using economic growth as a goal for designing population policies, policymakers should make their only priorities the improvement of the people's social wellbeing and the realization of their potential.
引文
1 梁建章.中国的人口危机比大多数国家都更严重!http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2017-08/1330857_2.shtmlLiangJianzhang. 2017. China's population crisis is worse than most countries!http://www.m4.cn/opinion/2017-08/1330857_2.shtml.
2 National Research Council, 1986.Population Growth and Economic Development : Policy Questions. National Academy Press :85-94.
3 王丰.独生子女政策的危害比大跃进和文革更大.http://business.sohu.com/20130630/n380272585.shtmlWang Feng. 2013. The Harm of the One-child policy is Greater than That of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.http://business.sohu.com/20130630/n380272585.shtml.
4 田雪原.中国人口政策60年.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2009:133-155 Tian Xueyuan.2009.China's Population Policyin the Past 60 Years. Beijing :Social Science Literature Press:133-155.
5 王丰,郭志刚,茅倬彦.21世纪中国人口负增长惯性初探.人口研究,2008;6:7-17Wang Feng,Guo Zhigang and Mao Zhuoyan.2008. On the Inertia of China's Negative Growth in the 21st Century. Population Research 6:7-17.
6 翟振武,李建新.中国人口:太多还是太老.社会科学文献出版社,2005:271-283Zhai Zhenwu and Li Jianxin. 2005. Chinese Population: Too Much or Too Old. Beijing :Social Science Literature Press:271-283.
7 李建新.转型期的中国人口问题.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005:350-369 Li Jianxin.2005.China's Population Problem during the Transition Period. Beijing :Social Science Literature Press:350-369.
8 李建新.也论中国人口数量与结构问题——兼与翟振武教授等商榷.人口研究,2001;5:18-27Li Jianxin.2001. On the Quantity and Structure of China's Population: A Discussion with Professor Zhai Zhenwu and Others. Population Research 5:18-27.
9 李仲生.欧美人口经济学说史.北京:世界图书出版公司,2013:162-163Li Zhongsheng.2013.History of Economics in Europe and America. Beijing: World Book Publishing Company:162-163.
2 National Research Council, 1986.Population Growth and Economic Development : Policy Questions. National Academy Press :85-94.
3 王丰.独生子女政策的危害比大跃进和文革更大.http://business.sohu.com/20130630/n380272585.shtmlWang Feng. 2013. The Harm of the One-child policy is Greater than That of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.http://business.sohu.com/20130630/n380272585.shtml.
4 田雪原.中国人口政策60年.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2009:133-155 Tian Xueyuan.2009.China's Population Policyin the Past 60 Years. Beijing :Social Science Literature Press:133-155.
5 王丰,郭志刚,茅倬彦.21世纪中国人口负增长惯性初探.人口研究,2008;6:7-17Wang Feng,Guo Zhigang and Mao Zhuoyan.2008. On the Inertia of China's Negative Growth in the 21st Century. Population Research 6:7-17.
6 翟振武,李建新.中国人口:太多还是太老.社会科学文献出版社,2005:271-283Zhai Zhenwu and Li Jianxin. 2005. Chinese Population: Too Much or Too Old. Beijing :Social Science Literature Press:271-283.
7 李建新.转型期的中国人口问题.北京:社会科学文献出版社,2005:350-369 Li Jianxin.2005.China's Population Problem during the Transition Period. Beijing :Social Science Literature Press:350-369.
8 李建新.也论中国人口数量与结构问题——兼与翟振武教授等商榷.人口研究,2001;5:18-27Li Jianxin.2001. On the Quantity and Structure of China's Population: A Discussion with Professor Zhai Zhenwu and Others. Population Research 5:18-27.
9 李仲生.欧美人口经济学说史.北京:世界图书出版公司,2013:162-163Li Zhongsheng.2013.History of Economics in Europe and America. Beijing: World Book Publishing Company:162-163.