生育政策调整前后西南四省市妇女生育变动分析
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摘要
文章运用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中重庆、四川、贵州和云南四省市的数据,从时期生育水平和队列生育水平两个角度对生育政策调整前后西南地区妇女生育变动及其省际差异进行了分析。研究发现:第一,2016年以后,妇女总和生育率有较大幅度的升高,且这种升高几乎完全由二孩总和生育率升高所贡献;第二,妇女初婚和初育推迟导致一孩总和生育率偏低,低年龄妇女平均活产子女数减少;第三,35～39岁妇女平均活产子女数和二孩递进比提高,反映了生育政策调整的作用;第四,妇女生育水平存在地区差异和群体差异,贵州和云南妇女生育率高于重庆和四川,农业户口妇女生育率高于非农户口妇女,但生育政策调整对非农户口妇女生育的影响更为明显。
Based on four provinces data, including Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, from 2017 China Fertility Survey, this paper evaluates the fertility level of southwest China before and after policy adjustment in terms of period and cohort fertility level, and examines the provincial differences. The results show that: First, TFR has been increasing substantially since 2016, which is caused almost completely by the rise of TFR for second birth. Second, average age at first marriage and age at first birth have been delayed, leading to lower level of TFR for first birth and decreased average number of children even born for younger women. Third, the increase of average number of children even born and ratio of parity progression for second birth for women aged 35 to 39, especially for those with non-agricultural Hukou, reflect the policy adjustment effects. Finally, there are marked regional and group differences in fertility level in Southwest China. Fertility is higher in Guizhou and Yunnan, compared to Chongqing and Sichuan; and is higher in women with agricultural Hukou than those with non-agricultural Hukou. Policy adjustment effects are more significant in women with non-agricultural Hukou.
Based on four provinces data, including Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, from 2017 China Fertility Survey, this paper evaluates the fertility level of southwest China before and after policy adjustment in terms of period and cohort fertility level, and examines the provincial differences. The results show that: First, TFR has been increasing substantially since 2016, which is caused almost completely by the rise of TFR for second birth. Second, average age at first marriage and age at first birth have been delayed, leading to lower level of TFR for first birth and decreased average number of children even born for younger women. Third, the increase of average number of children even born and ratio of parity progression for second birth for women aged 35 to 39, especially for those with non-agricultural Hukou, reflect the policy adjustment effects. Finally, there are marked regional and group differences in fertility level in Southwest China. Fertility is higher in Guizhou and Yunnan, compared to Chongqing and Sichuan; and is higher in women with agricultural Hukou than those with non-agricultural Hukou. Policy adjustment effects are more significant in women with non-agricultural Hukou.
引文
1 郭志刚.六普结果表明以往人口估计和预测严重失误.中国人口科学,2011; 6: 2-13Guo Zhigang.2011.The Sixth Census Data Indicates Serious Biases in Past Population Estimations and Projections.Chinese Journal of Population Science 6: 2-13.
2 王金营,戈艳霞.2010年人口普查数据质量评估以及对以往人口变动分析校正.人口研究,2013; 1: 22-33Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia.2013.Assessment of 2010 Census Data Quality and Past Population Changes.Population Research 1: 22-33.
3 朱勤.2000～2010年中国生育水平推算——基于“六普”数据的初步研究.中国人口科学,2012; 4: 68-77Zhu Qin.2012.Estimation of Fertility Level in China 2000-2010: A Preliminary Study Based on the 6th Population Census Data.Chinese Journal of Population Science 4: 68-77.
4 尹文耀,姚引妹,李芬.生育水平评估与生育政策调整——基于中国大陆分省生育水平现状的分析.中国社会科学, 2013;6: 109-128,206-207Yin Wenyao,Yao Yinmei and Li Fen.2013.Fertility Level Assessment and Fertility Policy Adjustment:An Analysis of the Provincial Data on Fertility Level in Mainland China. Social Sciences in China 6:109-128,206-207.
5 曾毅.试论二孩晚育政策软着陆的必要性与可行性.中国社会科学, 2006;2:93-109,207Zeng Yi. 2006. A Soft Landing with the Two-Children-Late-Birth Policy: Necessity and Feasibility. Social Sciences in China 2:93-109,207.
6 王金营,赵贝宁.论计划生育政策的完善与调整——基于公共政策视角.人口学刊,2012;4:81-89Wang Jinying and Zhao Beining. 2012. Adjustment of the Family Planning Policy: A Public Policy Perspective. Population Journal 4:81-89.
7 郭志刚.重新认识中国的人口形势.国际经济评论,2012;1:96-111,6Guo Zhigang. 2012. Re-thinking China's Demographic Situation.International Economic Review 1: 96-111,6.
8 陈卫,段媛媛.中国近10年来的生育水平与趋势.人口研究,2019;1:3-17Chen Wei and Duan Yuanyuan. 2019. Recent Levels and Trends of Fertility in China. Population Research 1:3-17.
9 庄亚儿,杨胜慧,齐嘉楠,李伯华,王志理.2017年全国生育状况抽样调查的实践与思考.人口研究,2018;4:104-112Zhuang Yaer, Yang Shenghui, Qi Jianan, Li Bohua and Wang Zhili. 2018. 2017 China Fertility Survey: Practices and Reflections.Population Research 4:104-112.
10 郭志刚,田思钰.当代青年女性晚婚对低生育水平的影响.青年研究,2017;6:16-25,91Guo Zhigang and Tian Siyu. 2017. The Impact of Contemporary Young Women's Late Marriage on Low Fertility Level. Youth Studies 6:16-25,91.
11 赵梦晗.我国妇女生育推迟与近期生育水平变化.人口学刊,2016;1:14-25Zhao Menghan.2016. Postponement of Childbearing and Recent Trends of Fertility in China.Population Journal 1:14-25.
12 陈卫,高爽.中国生育率转变中的数量和进度效应.人口研究,2013;3:11-28Chen Wei and Gao Shuang. 2013. Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China.Population Research 3:11-28.
13 郭志刚. 从近年来的时期生育行为看终身生育水平——中国生育数据的去进度效应总和生育率的研究.人口研究,2000;1:7-18Guo Zhigang. 2000. Lifetime Fertility of Chinese Women: A Look at the Recent Period Fertility Behavior. Population Research 1:7-18.
14 石人炳,陈宁,郑淇予. 中国生育政策调整效果评估. 中国人口科学,2018;4:114-125Shi Renbing, Chen Ning and Zheng Qiyu. 2018. Evaluation on the Effect of Fertility Policy Adjustments in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science 4: 114-125.
15 Budds, K., Locke, A. and Burr, V. 2016. “For some people it isn't a choice, it's just how it happens”: Accounts of “delayed” Motherhood among Middle-class Women in the UK. Fem Psychol 2:170-187.
16 Frejka, T. 2011. The Role of Contemporary Childbearing Postponement and Recuperation in Shaping Period Fertility Trends. Comparative Population Studies 4: 927-958.
17 Frejka, T and Sardon, J. P. 2006. First Birth Trends in Developed Countries: Persisting Parenthood Postponement. Demographic Research 15: 147-180.
18 Massimiliano, B. and Konstantinos, T. 2012. The Effect of Delaying Motherhood on the Second Childbirth in Europe. J Popul Econ 25: 291-321.
19 Sobotka, T. 2010. Shifting Parenthood to Advanced Reproductive Ages: Trends, Causes and Consequences. In: Tremmel J.(eds) A Young Generation Under Pressure? Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
(1)因无法获得分省15～60岁女性分年龄的户口性质、受教育程度等数据,故本研究未对这些变量进行加权处理。
(2)兼顾了2016与2017年的情况,以便得出较为准确的估计。
(3)诸多研究表明,我国女性近年来婚育推迟很明显。详情可参见郭志刚、田思钰(2017),赵梦晗(2016)和陈卫、高爽(2013)等学者的研究。
(4)需要说明的是,本研究中某年妇女“平均初婚年龄”是指当年所有初婚妇女的初婚年龄平均值。同样地,某年妇女“平均初育年龄”是指当年所有初育妇女的初育年龄平均值。准确地说,二者应分别是某年“初婚者平均年龄”和“初育者平均年龄”。
(5)2017年总和生育率是用该年份上半年数量乘以2得到,这与实际的全年数据会有偏差。
(6)分析中我们将“农业”和“农业转居民”统一称为“农业户口”,“非农业”和“非农业转居民”统一称为“非农户口”,下文同。
2 王金营,戈艳霞.2010年人口普查数据质量评估以及对以往人口变动分析校正.人口研究,2013; 1: 22-33Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia.2013.Assessment of 2010 Census Data Quality and Past Population Changes.Population Research 1: 22-33.
3 朱勤.2000～2010年中国生育水平推算——基于“六普”数据的初步研究.中国人口科学,2012; 4: 68-77Zhu Qin.2012.Estimation of Fertility Level in China 2000-2010: A Preliminary Study Based on the 6th Population Census Data.Chinese Journal of Population Science 4: 68-77.
4 尹文耀,姚引妹,李芬.生育水平评估与生育政策调整——基于中国大陆分省生育水平现状的分析.中国社会科学, 2013;6: 109-128,206-207Yin Wenyao,Yao Yinmei and Li Fen.2013.Fertility Level Assessment and Fertility Policy Adjustment:An Analysis of the Provincial Data on Fertility Level in Mainland China. Social Sciences in China 6:109-128,206-207.
5 曾毅.试论二孩晚育政策软着陆的必要性与可行性.中国社会科学, 2006;2:93-109,207Zeng Yi. 2006. A Soft Landing with the Two-Children-Late-Birth Policy: Necessity and Feasibility. Social Sciences in China 2:93-109,207.
6 王金营,赵贝宁.论计划生育政策的完善与调整——基于公共政策视角.人口学刊,2012;4:81-89Wang Jinying and Zhao Beining. 2012. Adjustment of the Family Planning Policy: A Public Policy Perspective. Population Journal 4:81-89.
7 郭志刚.重新认识中国的人口形势.国际经济评论,2012;1:96-111,6Guo Zhigang. 2012. Re-thinking China's Demographic Situation.International Economic Review 1: 96-111,6.
8 陈卫,段媛媛.中国近10年来的生育水平与趋势.人口研究,2019;1:3-17Chen Wei and Duan Yuanyuan. 2019. Recent Levels and Trends of Fertility in China. Population Research 1:3-17.
9 庄亚儿,杨胜慧,齐嘉楠,李伯华,王志理.2017年全国生育状况抽样调查的实践与思考.人口研究,2018;4:104-112Zhuang Yaer, Yang Shenghui, Qi Jianan, Li Bohua and Wang Zhili. 2018. 2017 China Fertility Survey: Practices and Reflections.Population Research 4:104-112.
10 郭志刚,田思钰.当代青年女性晚婚对低生育水平的影响.青年研究,2017;6:16-25,91Guo Zhigang and Tian Siyu. 2017. The Impact of Contemporary Young Women's Late Marriage on Low Fertility Level. Youth Studies 6:16-25,91.
11 赵梦晗.我国妇女生育推迟与近期生育水平变化.人口学刊,2016;1:14-25Zhao Menghan.2016. Postponement of Childbearing and Recent Trends of Fertility in China.Population Journal 1:14-25.
12 陈卫,高爽.中国生育率转变中的数量和进度效应.人口研究,2013;3:11-28Chen Wei and Gao Shuang. 2013. Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China.Population Research 3:11-28.
13 郭志刚. 从近年来的时期生育行为看终身生育水平——中国生育数据的去进度效应总和生育率的研究.人口研究,2000;1:7-18Guo Zhigang. 2000. Lifetime Fertility of Chinese Women: A Look at the Recent Period Fertility Behavior. Population Research 1:7-18.
14 石人炳,陈宁,郑淇予. 中国生育政策调整效果评估. 中国人口科学,2018;4:114-125Shi Renbing, Chen Ning and Zheng Qiyu. 2018. Evaluation on the Effect of Fertility Policy Adjustments in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science 4: 114-125.
15 Budds, K., Locke, A. and Burr, V. 2016. “For some people it isn't a choice, it's just how it happens”: Accounts of “delayed” Motherhood among Middle-class Women in the UK. Fem Psychol 2:170-187.
16 Frejka, T. 2011. The Role of Contemporary Childbearing Postponement and Recuperation in Shaping Period Fertility Trends. Comparative Population Studies 4: 927-958.
17 Frejka, T and Sardon, J. P. 2006. First Birth Trends in Developed Countries: Persisting Parenthood Postponement. Demographic Research 15: 147-180.
18 Massimiliano, B. and Konstantinos, T. 2012. The Effect of Delaying Motherhood on the Second Childbirth in Europe. J Popul Econ 25: 291-321.
19 Sobotka, T. 2010. Shifting Parenthood to Advanced Reproductive Ages: Trends, Causes and Consequences. In: Tremmel J.(eds) A Young Generation Under Pressure? Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
(1)因无法获得分省15～60岁女性分年龄的户口性质、受教育程度等数据,故本研究未对这些变量进行加权处理。
(2)兼顾了2016与2017年的情况,以便得出较为准确的估计。
(3)诸多研究表明,我国女性近年来婚育推迟很明显。详情可参见郭志刚、田思钰(2017),赵梦晗(2016)和陈卫、高爽(2013)等学者的研究。
(4)需要说明的是,本研究中某年妇女“平均初婚年龄”是指当年所有初婚妇女的初婚年龄平均值。同样地,某年妇女“平均初育年龄”是指当年所有初育妇女的初育年龄平均值。准确地说,二者应分别是某年“初婚者平均年龄”和“初育者平均年龄”。
(5)2017年总和生育率是用该年份上半年数量乘以2得到,这与实际的全年数据会有偏差。
(6)分析中我们将“农业”和“农业转居民”统一称为“农业户口”,“非农业”和“非农业转居民”统一称为“非农户口”,下文同。