中国生育水平、生育意愿的再认识:现实和未来——基于2017年全国生育状况调查北方七省市的数据
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摘要
利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中北方七省市数据,通过总和生育率、孩次递进总和生育率、递进总和生育率、终生生育率及生育模式(婚育年龄)变动等多指标多维度综合评估,我国特别是北方七省市生育水平确实处于较低水平,但是并非处于极低水平,应该是处于1.5～1.9之间,受政策调整等因素影响只是波动不稳。同时,单独(全面)两孩生育政策对二孩出生增加有明显作用。对育龄妇女的生育意愿及其影响因素进行评估分析,用平均再生育意愿指标低估了人们的实际生育意愿,利用意愿递进生育率可以真实反映育龄妇女的生育意愿水平。根据生育意愿及其决定因素,特别是20～29和30～39岁年龄组的意愿递进生育率可以判断未来生育水平有上升的可能和势能。
This paper uses the data of the seven northern provinces and cities in the 2017 China Fertility Survey, to assess the fertility status and actual fertility level in China, particularly in the northern provinces, with total fertility rate, parity progressive total fertility rate, lifetime fertility rate, and fertility patterns(age patterns of marriage and childbearing). The results suggest that the fertility level in China is indeed at a moderately low fertility level between 1.5 and 1.9, but not at a very low level. The two-child policy has a significant effect on the fertility of the second child. Parity Progressive desired fertility tends to more truly represent the actual desired fertility. According to the parity progressive desired fertility at ages 20～29 and 30～39, there is a possibility of increase in future fertility in China.
This paper uses the data of the seven northern provinces and cities in the 2017 China Fertility Survey, to assess the fertility status and actual fertility level in China, particularly in the northern provinces, with total fertility rate, parity progressive total fertility rate, lifetime fertility rate, and fertility patterns(age patterns of marriage and childbearing). The results suggest that the fertility level in China is indeed at a moderately low fertility level between 1.5 and 1.9, but not at a very low level. The two-child policy has a significant effect on the fertility of the second child. Parity Progressive desired fertility tends to more truly represent the actual desired fertility. According to the parity progressive desired fertility at ages 20～29 and 30～39, there is a possibility of increase in future fertility in China.
引文
1 何亚福.中国现在还需要限制生育吗?人口与社会,2015;2:33-36He Yafu.2015.Does China Still Need to Limit FertilityNow?Population and Society 2:33-36.
2 王广州,张丽萍.到底能生多少孩子?——中国人的政策生育潜力估计.社会学研究,2012; 5:119-140,244Wang Guangzhou and Zhang Liping.2012.How Many Children Can they Have? An Estimates of The Policy Potential Fertility. Sociological Studies 5:119-140;244.
3 陈卫,段媛媛.中国近10年来的生育水平与趋势.人口研究,2019;1:3-17Chen Wei and Duan Yuanyuan.2019. Recent Levels and Trends in Fertility in China. Population Research 1:3-17.
4 贺丹,张许颖,庄亚儿,王志理,杨胜慧.2006～2016年中国生育状况报告——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据分析.人口研究,2018; 6:35-45He Dan,Zhang Xvying,Zhuang Yaer,Wang Zhili and Yang Shenghui.2018.A Report on Fertility Status in China from 2006 to 2016 Based on The Data Analysis of the 2017 National Fertility Status Sampling Survey.Population Research 6:35-45.
5 庄亚儿,杨胜慧,齐嘉楠,李伯华,王志理.2017年全国生育状况抽样调查的实践与思考.人口研究,2018; 4:104-112Zhuang Yaer,Yang Shenghui,Qi Jianan,Li Bohua and Wang Zhili.2018.Practice and Reflections on The National Sampling Survey of Fertility Status in 2017.Population Research 4:104-112.
6 翟振武.科学研判人口形势积极应对人口挑战.人口与社会,2019;1:13-17Zhai Zhenwu.2019.Scientifically Judge The Population Situation to Actively Address Population Challenges.Population and Society 1:13-17.
7 王广州,张丽萍.中国低生育水平下的二孩生育意愿研究.青年探索,2017;5:5-14Wang Guangzhou And Zhang Liping.2017.A Study of the Fertility Intention of the Second Child under the Low Fertility Level in China.Youth Exploration 5:5-14.
8 穆光宗.“全面二孩”政策实施效果如何.人民论坛,2018;14:46-47Mu Guangzong.2018.What is the Effect of the Universal Two-child Policy. People's Tribune 14:46-47.
9 计迎春,郑真真.社会性别和发展视角下的中国低生育率.中国社会科学,2018;8:143-161,207-208 Ji Yingchun and Zheng Zhenzhen.2018.Low Fertility Rate in China from the Perspective of Social Gender and Development.Social Sciences in China 8:143-161,207-208.
10 王广州,周玉娇,张楠.低生育陷阱:中国当前的低生育风险及未来人口形势判断.青年探索,2018;5:15-27 Wang Guangzhou,Zhou Yvjiao and Zhang Nan.2018.Low Fertility Trap: The Current Low Fertility Risk and the Judgment of Population Situation in Future in China.Youth Exploration 5:15-27.
11 郭志刚.中国低生育进程的主要特征——2015年1%人口抽样调查结果的启示.中国人口科学,2017;4:2-14;126Guo Zhigang.2017.The Main Characteristics of Low Fertility in China: Enlightenments From the Results of 1% Population Sampling Survey in 2015. Chinese Journal of Population Science 4:2-14;126.
12 王金营,戈艳霞.全面二孩政策实施下的中国人口发展态势.人口研究,2016;6:3-21Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia.2016.China's Population Development Trend under the Implementation of the Universal Two-Child Policy. Population Research 6:3-21.
13 陈卫,杨胜慧.中国2010年总和生育率的再估计.人口研究,2014;6:16-24Chen Wei and Yang Shenghui.2014.China's Fertility in 2010: An Indirect Estimation Using Brass P/F Ratio Method.Population Research 6: 16-24.
14 翟振武,张浣珺.普查数据质量与调查方法——关于将身份证号码纳入普查问卷的探讨.人口研究,2013; 1:78-83 Zhai Zhenwu and Zhang Huanjun.2013.Quality of Census Data and Survey Method: Discussion on The Inclusion of ID Number in Census Questionnaire. Population Research 1:78-83.
15 顾宝昌.生育意愿、生育行为和生育水平.人口研究,2011;2:43-59Gu Baochang.2011.Fertility Intention, Fertility Behavior and Fertility Level. Population Research 2:43-59.
16 郑真真.生育意愿的测量与应用.中国人口科学,2014;6:15-25;126Zheng Zhenzhen.2014.Measurement and Application of Fertility Intention. Chinese Journal of Population Science 6:15-25;126.
17 王金营,徐蕾,杨江澜,李颖,王春蕊.中国农村生育意愿和生育水平转变的考察——基于对河北承德、邯郸两地区实地调查的比较.人口研究,2008;5:58-66Wang Jinying,Xv Lei,Yang Jianglan,Li Ying and Wang Chunrui.2008.Investigation on the Change of Fertility Desire and Fertility Level in Rural Areas of China: Based on the Comparison Between Field Investigations of Chengde and Handan in Hebei Province. Population Research 5:58-66.
(1)六次调查依次为: 1982年全国 1‰人口生育率抽样调查、1988年全国生育节育抽样调查、1992年国家计划生育管理信息系统首次调查、1997年全国人口与生殖健康调查、2001年全国计划生育/生殖健康调查和2006年全国人口和计划生育调查。
(2)令曾生i孩的妇女人数为Wi,至少生育i个孩子的妇女人数等于终生生育i,i+1,i+2,…,N孩妇女人数之和,将至少生育过i+1个活产婴儿的妇女人数比上至少生育过i个活产婴儿的妇女人数,即可得到生育孩次递进比ai,ai表示i→i+1孩的孩次递进比。 则i→i+1孩的孩次递进比=ai=N∑(k=i+1)Wk/N∑(k=i)Wk
2 王广州,张丽萍.到底能生多少孩子?——中国人的政策生育潜力估计.社会学研究,2012; 5:119-140,244Wang Guangzhou and Zhang Liping.2012.How Many Children Can they Have? An Estimates of The Policy Potential Fertility. Sociological Studies 5:119-140;244.
3 陈卫,段媛媛.中国近10年来的生育水平与趋势.人口研究,2019;1:3-17Chen Wei and Duan Yuanyuan.2019. Recent Levels and Trends in Fertility in China. Population Research 1:3-17.
4 贺丹,张许颖,庄亚儿,王志理,杨胜慧.2006～2016年中国生育状况报告——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据分析.人口研究,2018; 6:35-45He Dan,Zhang Xvying,Zhuang Yaer,Wang Zhili and Yang Shenghui.2018.A Report on Fertility Status in China from 2006 to 2016 Based on The Data Analysis of the 2017 National Fertility Status Sampling Survey.Population Research 6:35-45.
5 庄亚儿,杨胜慧,齐嘉楠,李伯华,王志理.2017年全国生育状况抽样调查的实践与思考.人口研究,2018; 4:104-112Zhuang Yaer,Yang Shenghui,Qi Jianan,Li Bohua and Wang Zhili.2018.Practice and Reflections on The National Sampling Survey of Fertility Status in 2017.Population Research 4:104-112.
6 翟振武.科学研判人口形势积极应对人口挑战.人口与社会,2019;1:13-17Zhai Zhenwu.2019.Scientifically Judge The Population Situation to Actively Address Population Challenges.Population and Society 1:13-17.
7 王广州,张丽萍.中国低生育水平下的二孩生育意愿研究.青年探索,2017;5:5-14Wang Guangzhou And Zhang Liping.2017.A Study of the Fertility Intention of the Second Child under the Low Fertility Level in China.Youth Exploration 5:5-14.
8 穆光宗.“全面二孩”政策实施效果如何.人民论坛,2018;14:46-47Mu Guangzong.2018.What is the Effect of the Universal Two-child Policy. People's Tribune 14:46-47.
9 计迎春,郑真真.社会性别和发展视角下的中国低生育率.中国社会科学,2018;8:143-161,207-208 Ji Yingchun and Zheng Zhenzhen.2018.Low Fertility Rate in China from the Perspective of Social Gender and Development.Social Sciences in China 8:143-161,207-208.
10 王广州,周玉娇,张楠.低生育陷阱:中国当前的低生育风险及未来人口形势判断.青年探索,2018;5:15-27 Wang Guangzhou,Zhou Yvjiao and Zhang Nan.2018.Low Fertility Trap: The Current Low Fertility Risk and the Judgment of Population Situation in Future in China.Youth Exploration 5:15-27.
11 郭志刚.中国低生育进程的主要特征——2015年1%人口抽样调查结果的启示.中国人口科学,2017;4:2-14;126Guo Zhigang.2017.The Main Characteristics of Low Fertility in China: Enlightenments From the Results of 1% Population Sampling Survey in 2015. Chinese Journal of Population Science 4:2-14;126.
12 王金营,戈艳霞.全面二孩政策实施下的中国人口发展态势.人口研究,2016;6:3-21Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia.2016.China's Population Development Trend under the Implementation of the Universal Two-Child Policy. Population Research 6:3-21.
13 陈卫,杨胜慧.中国2010年总和生育率的再估计.人口研究,2014;6:16-24Chen Wei and Yang Shenghui.2014.China's Fertility in 2010: An Indirect Estimation Using Brass P/F Ratio Method.Population Research 6: 16-24.
14 翟振武,张浣珺.普查数据质量与调查方法——关于将身份证号码纳入普查问卷的探讨.人口研究,2013; 1:78-83 Zhai Zhenwu and Zhang Huanjun.2013.Quality of Census Data and Survey Method: Discussion on The Inclusion of ID Number in Census Questionnaire. Population Research 1:78-83.
15 顾宝昌.生育意愿、生育行为和生育水平.人口研究,2011;2:43-59Gu Baochang.2011.Fertility Intention, Fertility Behavior and Fertility Level. Population Research 2:43-59.
16 郑真真.生育意愿的测量与应用.中国人口科学,2014;6:15-25;126Zheng Zhenzhen.2014.Measurement and Application of Fertility Intention. Chinese Journal of Population Science 6:15-25;126.
17 王金营,徐蕾,杨江澜,李颖,王春蕊.中国农村生育意愿和生育水平转变的考察——基于对河北承德、邯郸两地区实地调查的比较.人口研究,2008;5:58-66Wang Jinying,Xv Lei,Yang Jianglan,Li Ying and Wang Chunrui.2008.Investigation on the Change of Fertility Desire and Fertility Level in Rural Areas of China: Based on the Comparison Between Field Investigations of Chengde and Handan in Hebei Province. Population Research 5:58-66.
(1)六次调查依次为: 1982年全国 1‰人口生育率抽样调查、1988年全国生育节育抽样调查、1992年国家计划生育管理信息系统首次调查、1997年全国人口与生殖健康调查、2001年全国计划生育/生殖健康调查和2006年全国人口和计划生育调查。
(2)令曾生i孩的妇女人数为Wi,至少生育i个孩子的妇女人数等于终生生育i,i+1,i+2,…,N孩妇女人数之和,将至少生育过i+1个活产婴儿的妇女人数比上至少生育过i个活产婴儿的妇女人数,即可得到生育孩次递进比ai,ai表示i→i+1孩的孩次递进比。 则i→i+1孩的孩次递进比=ai=N∑(k=i+1)Wk/N∑(k=i)Wk