2006～2016年少数民族省区生育水平研究——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据
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摘要
文章使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中的少数民族省区数据,运用时期和队列指标,从数量、结构和时间3个维度来分析2006～2016年少数民族省区的生育水平。结果表明,少数民族省区总和生育率10年间趋势性上升,已然回到更替水平,高于全国平均值。其中,少数民族妇女生育率水平高于汉族;分孩次分析,少数民族妇女各孩次生育率水平均高于汉族,汉族二孩总和生育率上升明显,生育政策效果凸显;分民族分析,维吾尔族和苗族生育行为强劲,彝族倾向生育两个孩子,藏族生育冲动相对较弱;少数民族和汉族妇女生育高峰段均从20～24岁推迟至25～29岁,汉族高龄育龄妇女生育水平升高明显,生育年龄逐步提高,汉族生育年龄迟于少数民族。总体判断,少数民族省区处于适度的生育率水平。
Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper analyzes fertility levels and trends over 2006-2016 in the ethnic minority provinces in China, using period and cohort measures of fertility incorporating quantity, structure and timing dimensions. The results show that the total fertility rate of ethnic minority provinces has increased to the replacement level in the past ten years, which is higher than the national average. The fertility rate of ethnic minority population is higher than that of the Han nationality, and this is the case at all parities. The second-child fertility of Han has increased tremendously, highlighting the marked effects of the two-child policy. By ethnic group, the Uygur and Miao have strong fertility behaviors, meanwhile the Yi tends to have two children, while the Tibetans are reluctant to have more children. The fertility peak of ethnic minorities and Han women of childbearing age has been postponed from 20-24 years to 25-29 years, and the fertility level at the older age group of Han nationality has increased, pushing up the mean age at childbearing with that being higher of Han nationality than that of ethnic minorities. Overall, the ethnic minority provinces are at a moderately high fertility level.
Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper analyzes fertility levels and trends over 2006-2016 in the ethnic minority provinces in China, using period and cohort measures of fertility incorporating quantity, structure and timing dimensions. The results show that the total fertility rate of ethnic minority provinces has increased to the replacement level in the past ten years, which is higher than the national average. The fertility rate of ethnic minority population is higher than that of the Han nationality, and this is the case at all parities. The second-child fertility of Han has increased tremendously, highlighting the marked effects of the two-child policy. By ethnic group, the Uygur and Miao have strong fertility behaviors, meanwhile the Yi tends to have two children, while the Tibetans are reluctant to have more children. The fertility peak of ethnic minorities and Han women of childbearing age has been postponed from 20-24 years to 25-29 years, and the fertility level at the older age group of Han nationality has increased, pushing up the mean age at childbearing with that being higher of Han nationality than that of ethnic minorities. Overall, the ethnic minority provinces are at a moderately high fertility level.
引文
1 陈卫. 基于广义稳定人口模型的中国生育率估计.人口研究,2015;6:35-43Chen Wei. 2015. China's Fertility Estimation: A Generalized Stable Population Approach.Population Research 6:35-43.
2 贺丹,张许颖,庄亚儿,王志理,杨胜慧.2006～2016年中国生育状况报告——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据分析.人口研究,2018; 6:35-45He Dan, Zhang Xuying, Zhuang Yaer, Wang Zhili and Yang Shenghui. 2018. China Fertility Status Report, 2006-2016: An Analysis Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey. Population Research 6:35-45.
3 米红, 杨明旭.总和生育率、出生性别比的修正与评估研究——基于1982～2010年历次人口普查、1%抽样调查数据.人口与发展,2016; 2:12-19Mi Hong and Yang Mingxu. 2016. Reassessment of the Under-reported Rate, Total Fertility Rate and Sex Ratio at Birth: Based on the National Census and 1% Sample Survey Data during 1982-2010. Population & Development 2:12-19.
4 王广州,张丽萍. 到底能生多少孩子?——中国人的政策生育潜力估计.社会学研究,2012;5:119-140,244 Wang Guangzhou and Zhang Liping.2012. How Many Births Can We Have? An Estimation of the Potential Policy Fertility. Sociological Studies 5:119-140,244.
5 王金营,戈艳霞. 全面二孩政策实施下的中国人口发展态势.人口研究,2016;6:3-21 Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia.2016. Population Trends in China under the Universal Two-Child Policy. Population Research 6:3-21.
6 薛继亮. 族际通婚对生育水平的影响:来自内蒙古的验证.人口学刊,2016;5:25-33Xue Jiliang. 2016. The Impacts of Cross-ethnicity Marriage on Fertility Level. Population Journal 5:25-33.
7 尹文耀,姚引妹,李芬. 生育水平评估与生育政策调整——基于中国大陆分省生育水平现状的分析.中国社会科学,2013;6:109-128,206-207Yin Wenyao, Yao Yinmei and Li Fen. 2013. Fertility Level Assessment and Fertility Policy Adjustment: An Analysis of the Provincial Data on Fertility Level in Mainland China. Social Science in China 6:109-128,206-207.
8 翟振武,陈佳鞠,李龙.现阶段中国的总和生育率究竟是多少?——来自户籍登记数据的新证据.人口研究,2015;6:22-34Zhai Zhenwu, Chen Jiaju and Li Long.2015. China's Recent Total Fertility Rate: New Evidence from the Household Registration Statistics. Population Research 6:22-34.
9 张丽萍.中国少数民族人口的生育转变.黑龙江社会科学,2013;5:96-102Zhang Liping. 2013. The Fertility Transition of China's Ethnic Minority Population. Heilongjiang Social Sciences 5:96-102.
2 贺丹,张许颖,庄亚儿,王志理,杨胜慧.2006～2016年中国生育状况报告——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据分析.人口研究,2018; 6:35-45He Dan, Zhang Xuying, Zhuang Yaer, Wang Zhili and Yang Shenghui. 2018. China Fertility Status Report, 2006-2016: An Analysis Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey. Population Research 6:35-45.
3 米红, 杨明旭.总和生育率、出生性别比的修正与评估研究——基于1982～2010年历次人口普查、1%抽样调查数据.人口与发展,2016; 2:12-19Mi Hong and Yang Mingxu. 2016. Reassessment of the Under-reported Rate, Total Fertility Rate and Sex Ratio at Birth: Based on the National Census and 1% Sample Survey Data during 1982-2010. Population & Development 2:12-19.
4 王广州,张丽萍. 到底能生多少孩子?——中国人的政策生育潜力估计.社会学研究,2012;5:119-140,244 Wang Guangzhou and Zhang Liping.2012. How Many Births Can We Have? An Estimation of the Potential Policy Fertility. Sociological Studies 5:119-140,244.
5 王金营,戈艳霞. 全面二孩政策实施下的中国人口发展态势.人口研究,2016;6:3-21 Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia.2016. Population Trends in China under the Universal Two-Child Policy. Population Research 6:3-21.
6 薛继亮. 族际通婚对生育水平的影响:来自内蒙古的验证.人口学刊,2016;5:25-33Xue Jiliang. 2016. The Impacts of Cross-ethnicity Marriage on Fertility Level. Population Journal 5:25-33.
7 尹文耀,姚引妹,李芬. 生育水平评估与生育政策调整——基于中国大陆分省生育水平现状的分析.中国社会科学,2013;6:109-128,206-207Yin Wenyao, Yao Yinmei and Li Fen. 2013. Fertility Level Assessment and Fertility Policy Adjustment: An Analysis of the Provincial Data on Fertility Level in Mainland China. Social Science in China 6:109-128,206-207.
8 翟振武,陈佳鞠,李龙.现阶段中国的总和生育率究竟是多少?——来自户籍登记数据的新证据.人口研究,2015;6:22-34Zhai Zhenwu, Chen Jiaju and Li Long.2015. China's Recent Total Fertility Rate: New Evidence from the Household Registration Statistics. Population Research 6:22-34.
9 张丽萍.中国少数民族人口的生育转变.黑龙江社会科学,2013;5:96-102Zhang Liping. 2013. The Fertility Transition of China's Ethnic Minority Population. Heilongjiang Social Sciences 5:96-102.