对外直接投资如何影响企业产出
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摘要
本文运用理论模型分析不同类型对外直接投资(OFDI)对母国企业产出的影响机制,模型从中间品进出口视角,分析了水平型和垂直型对外直接投资的差异化影响。基于企业层面数据的经验研究发现,总体上OFDI对企业产出呈现促进效应。但是不同类型OFDI对产出的影响存在差异性,商贸服务型、前向垂直型OFDI能够促进企业产出增长;水平型OFDI只有在中间品出口比重高于门槛值,后向垂直型OFDI只有中间品进口比重高于门槛值时,才对企业产出呈现促进效应;研究开发型、没有中间品出口的水平型OFDI对产出呈现显著"挤出"效应。
This paper theoretically analyses the complicated impact of the different types of OFDIs on the output of home-country firms, and further introduces the perspective of imports and exports of intermediate goods to distinguish differences in impact between horizontal and vertical types of OFDIs. Based on micro-firm level data, this paper analyses and finds that OFDIs have a certain promotion effect on firm output. However, there are significant differences in the impact of OFDIs in their different subdivisions: business service OFDIs and forward vertical OFDIs can promote firm output. Only when horizontal OFDIs' intermediate goods export or backward vertical OFDIs' intermediate goods import exceeds a certain threshold value, horizontal OFDIs or backward vertical OFDIs can promote firm output, while R&D-oriented OFDIs and horizontal OFDIs without intermediate goods have a significant "crowding-out" effect.
This paper theoretically analyses the complicated impact of the different types of OFDIs on the output of home-country firms, and further introduces the perspective of imports and exports of intermediate goods to distinguish differences in impact between horizontal and vertical types of OFDIs. Based on micro-firm level data, this paper analyses and finds that OFDIs have a certain promotion effect on firm output. However, there are significant differences in the impact of OFDIs in their different subdivisions: business service OFDIs and forward vertical OFDIs can promote firm output. Only when horizontal OFDIs' intermediate goods export or backward vertical OFDIs' intermediate goods import exceeds a certain threshold value, horizontal OFDIs or backward vertical OFDIs can promote firm output, while R&D-oriented OFDIs and horizontal OFDIs without intermediate goods have a significant "crowding-out" effect.
引文
蒋冠宏(2016):《我国企业对外直接投资的“就业效应”》,《统计研究》第8期。
李磊、白道欢、冼国明(2016):《对外直接投资如何影响了母国就业?——基于中国微观企业数据的研究》,《经济研究》第8期。
Antràs, P.“Firms, Contracts, and Trade Structure.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2003, 118 (4), pp.1375-1418.
Bergsten, C.F.; Horst, T.and Moran, T.H.American Multinationals and American Interests.Brookings Institution, 1978.
Braconier, H.; Ekholm, K.and Knarvik, K.H.M.“In Search of FDI-Transmitted R&D Spillovers: A Study Based on Swedish Data.” Review of World Economics, 2001, 137 (4), pp.644-665.
Buch C.M.; D?pke, J.and Strotmann H.“Does Export Openness Increase Firm-Level Output Volatility?” World Economy, 2009, 32 (4), pp.531-551.
Clausing, K.“Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?” Economic Inquiry, 2000, 38 (2), pp.190-205.
Comin, D.and Philippon, T.“The Rise in Firm-level Volatility: Causes and Consequences.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2005, 20, pp.167-228.
Conconi, P.; Sapir, A.and Zanardi, M.“The Internationalization Process of Firms: From Exports to FDI.” Journal of International Economics, 2016, 99, pp.16-30.
Potterie, B.and Lichtenberg, F.“Does Foreign Direct Investment Transfer Technology across Borders?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2001, 83 (3), pp.490-497.
Dean, J.M.; Fung, K.C.and Wang,Z.“Measuring Vertical Specialization: The Case of China.” Review of International Economics, 2011, 19 (4), pp.609-625.
Desai, M.C.; Foley, C.F.and Hines, J.R.“Foreign Direct Investment and the Domestic Capital Stock.” The American Economic Review, 2005, 95 (2), pp.33-38.
Desbordes, R and Vicard, V.“Foreign Direct Investment and Bilateral Investment Treaties: An International Political Perspective.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 2009, 37 (3), pp.372-386.
Egger, P.and Pfaffermayr, M.“The Proper Panel Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation: A Three-Way Model with Bilateral Interaction Effects.” Empirical Economics, 2003, 28 (3), pp.571-580.
Engel, D.and Procher, V.“Export, FDI and Firm Productivity.” Applied Economics, 2012, 44 (15), pp.1931-1940.
Guariglia, A.; Liu, X.and Song, L.“Internal Finance and Growth: Microeconometric Evidence on Chinese Firms.” Journal of Development Economics, 2011, 96 (1), pp.79-94.
Hanson, G.H.; Mataloni, R.J.and Slaughter, M.J.“Expansion Strategies of US Multinational Firms.” NBER Working Papers, No.8433, 2001.
Herzer, D.“The Long-run Relationship between Outward FDI and Domestic Output: Evidence from Panel Data.” Economics Letters, 2008, 100 (1), pp.146-149.
Herzer, D.“Outward FDI and Economic Growth.” Journal of Economic Studies, 2010, 37 (5), pp.476-494.
Hijzen, A.; G?rg, H.and Hine, R.C.“International Outsourcing and the Skill Structure of Labour Demand in the United Kingdom.” Economic Journal, 2005, 115 (506), pp.860-878.
Konings, J.and Murphy, A.P.“Do Multinational Enterprises Relocate Employment to Low-Wage Regions? Evidence from European Multinationals.” Review of World Economics, 2006, 142 (2), pp.267-286.
Javorcik, B.S.; Turco, A.L.and Maggioni, D.“New and Improved: Does FDI Boost Production Complexity in Host Countries?” Economic Journal, 2018, 128 (614), pp.2507-2537.
Mariotti, S.; Mutinelli, M.and Piscitello, L.“Home Country Employment and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from the Italian Case.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2003, 27 (3), pp.419-431.
Navaretti, B.; Castellani, D.and Disdier, A.C.“How Does Investing in Cheap Labor Countries Affect Performance at Home? France and Italy.” Oxford Economic Papers, 2010, 62 (2), pp.234-260.
Pfaffermayr, M.“Foreign Outward Direct Investment and Exports in Austrian Manufacturing: Substitutes or Complements?” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1996, 132 (3), pp.501-552.
Stevens, G.V.and Lipsey, R.E.“Interactions between Domestic and Foreign Investment.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 1992, 11 (1), pp.40-62.
Wagner, J.“Exports, Foreign Direct Investment, and Productivity: Evidence from German Firm Level Data.” Applied Economics Letters, 2006, 13 (6), pp.347-349.
(1)这些变量主要包括工业销售额、营业收入、就业人数、固定资产总额、出口额和中间投入品总额。
(2)这里特别做出说明的是,本文之所以未同时考虑OFDI与其一阶滞后项的原因在于OFDI与其滞后项之间存在显著的共线性(VIF值远高于10),本文模型估计中分别进行了回归检验。
(3)由于工业企业数据库中没有2008、2009年工业增加值数据,本文利用收入法来进行测算,具体公式为增加值=本年应付工资总额+增值税+所得税+营业税+利润总额+本年折旧。对于缺失中间投入数据的年份,假设中间投入=总产值+增值税-增加值。2001年缺少增加值数据,则在对前述公式恒等变形后计算获得,即增加值=总产值-中间投入+增值税。为补充部分年份工资数据缺失,将“主营业务成本+管理费用”作为劳动工资成本折算基础,例如2009年工资=2008年工资×工资成本折算基础增长率。通过一系列会计等式对缺失数据进行补充,可获得计算TFP所需数据。
(4)下文中两个统计量分别简称K-P LM统计量和K-P F统计量。
(5)限于篇幅,本文只报告两步系统动态GMM结果。
李磊、白道欢、冼国明(2016):《对外直接投资如何影响了母国就业?——基于中国微观企业数据的研究》,《经济研究》第8期。
Antràs, P.“Firms, Contracts, and Trade Structure.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2003, 118 (4), pp.1375-1418.
Bergsten, C.F.; Horst, T.and Moran, T.H.American Multinationals and American Interests.Brookings Institution, 1978.
Braconier, H.; Ekholm, K.and Knarvik, K.H.M.“In Search of FDI-Transmitted R&D Spillovers: A Study Based on Swedish Data.” Review of World Economics, 2001, 137 (4), pp.644-665.
Buch C.M.; D?pke, J.and Strotmann H.“Does Export Openness Increase Firm-Level Output Volatility?” World Economy, 2009, 32 (4), pp.531-551.
Clausing, K.“Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?” Economic Inquiry, 2000, 38 (2), pp.190-205.
Comin, D.and Philippon, T.“The Rise in Firm-level Volatility: Causes and Consequences.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2005, 20, pp.167-228.
Conconi, P.; Sapir, A.and Zanardi, M.“The Internationalization Process of Firms: From Exports to FDI.” Journal of International Economics, 2016, 99, pp.16-30.
Potterie, B.and Lichtenberg, F.“Does Foreign Direct Investment Transfer Technology across Borders?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2001, 83 (3), pp.490-497.
Dean, J.M.; Fung, K.C.and Wang,Z.“Measuring Vertical Specialization: The Case of China.” Review of International Economics, 2011, 19 (4), pp.609-625.
Desai, M.C.; Foley, C.F.and Hines, J.R.“Foreign Direct Investment and the Domestic Capital Stock.” The American Economic Review, 2005, 95 (2), pp.33-38.
Desbordes, R and Vicard, V.“Foreign Direct Investment and Bilateral Investment Treaties: An International Political Perspective.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 2009, 37 (3), pp.372-386.
Egger, P.and Pfaffermayr, M.“The Proper Panel Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation: A Three-Way Model with Bilateral Interaction Effects.” Empirical Economics, 2003, 28 (3), pp.571-580.
Engel, D.and Procher, V.“Export, FDI and Firm Productivity.” Applied Economics, 2012, 44 (15), pp.1931-1940.
Guariglia, A.; Liu, X.and Song, L.“Internal Finance and Growth: Microeconometric Evidence on Chinese Firms.” Journal of Development Economics, 2011, 96 (1), pp.79-94.
Hanson, G.H.; Mataloni, R.J.and Slaughter, M.J.“Expansion Strategies of US Multinational Firms.” NBER Working Papers, No.8433, 2001.
Herzer, D.“The Long-run Relationship between Outward FDI and Domestic Output: Evidence from Panel Data.” Economics Letters, 2008, 100 (1), pp.146-149.
Herzer, D.“Outward FDI and Economic Growth.” Journal of Economic Studies, 2010, 37 (5), pp.476-494.
Hijzen, A.; G?rg, H.and Hine, R.C.“International Outsourcing and the Skill Structure of Labour Demand in the United Kingdom.” Economic Journal, 2005, 115 (506), pp.860-878.
Konings, J.and Murphy, A.P.“Do Multinational Enterprises Relocate Employment to Low-Wage Regions? Evidence from European Multinationals.” Review of World Economics, 2006, 142 (2), pp.267-286.
Javorcik, B.S.; Turco, A.L.and Maggioni, D.“New and Improved: Does FDI Boost Production Complexity in Host Countries?” Economic Journal, 2018, 128 (614), pp.2507-2537.
Mariotti, S.; Mutinelli, M.and Piscitello, L.“Home Country Employment and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from the Italian Case.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2003, 27 (3), pp.419-431.
Navaretti, B.; Castellani, D.and Disdier, A.C.“How Does Investing in Cheap Labor Countries Affect Performance at Home? France and Italy.” Oxford Economic Papers, 2010, 62 (2), pp.234-260.
Pfaffermayr, M.“Foreign Outward Direct Investment and Exports in Austrian Manufacturing: Substitutes or Complements?” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1996, 132 (3), pp.501-552.
Stevens, G.V.and Lipsey, R.E.“Interactions between Domestic and Foreign Investment.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 1992, 11 (1), pp.40-62.
Wagner, J.“Exports, Foreign Direct Investment, and Productivity: Evidence from German Firm Level Data.” Applied Economics Letters, 2006, 13 (6), pp.347-349.
(1)这些变量主要包括工业销售额、营业收入、就业人数、固定资产总额、出口额和中间投入品总额。
(2)这里特别做出说明的是,本文之所以未同时考虑OFDI与其一阶滞后项的原因在于OFDI与其滞后项之间存在显著的共线性(VIF值远高于10),本文模型估计中分别进行了回归检验。
(3)由于工业企业数据库中没有2008、2009年工业增加值数据,本文利用收入法来进行测算,具体公式为增加值=本年应付工资总额+增值税+所得税+营业税+利润总额+本年折旧。对于缺失中间投入数据的年份,假设中间投入=总产值+增值税-增加值。2001年缺少增加值数据,则在对前述公式恒等变形后计算获得,即增加值=总产值-中间投入+增值税。为补充部分年份工资数据缺失,将“主营业务成本+管理费用”作为劳动工资成本折算基础,例如2009年工资=2008年工资×工资成本折算基础增长率。通过一系列会计等式对缺失数据进行补充,可获得计算TFP所需数据。
(4)下文中两个统计量分别简称K-P LM统计量和K-P F统计量。
(5)限于篇幅,本文只报告两步系统动态GMM结果。