快速移民城市深圳人口增长的时空特征及模式
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摘要
利用统计年鉴数据和第三、四、五、六次人口普查资料,综合运用数理统计分析和GIS空间分析技术,对改革开放以来尤其是1990-2010年期间深圳人口增长的时空特征和模式进行深入的探讨。得出以下结论:①作为快速增长的移民城市,深圳人口增长主要受经济因素的影响,其次还受到政治因素的影响。②深圳人口增长的波动性较大且内部差异显著,各街道人口变动幅度在持续增大,快速增长地区主要分布在中心城区外围,人口负增长地区则位于相对偏远地带。③深圳人口分布的热点区集中在中心城区,冷点区则主要分布在广大的东部地区和光明新区,人口集中度较低,分布较为分散,人口重心呈现西北向移动的趋势,人口密度空间分布由"1个高中心"演变为"1个高中心+1个外围中心"再到"1个高中心+2个外围中心"。④作为快速移民城市,深圳人口发展处于成长阶段并逐步迈向成熟阶段,人口变动模式处于绝对向心期向相对向心期发展的过渡阶段。
The growth pattern and distribution characteristics of population in Shenzhen are analyzed using the statistical yearbook and the data from the 3~(rd) to 6~(th) census by mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis. The main results are as follows:(1) As a rapid immigration city, the population growth of Shenzhen was mainly influenced by economic factors and secondly by political factors.(2) The change of the permanent population is consistent with the change of the migrant population, and the fluctuation of population growth is relatively large. The dispersion coefficients are 0.54 and 0.66 from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010, respectively. The outlying urban areas have mostly rapid growth in population, but those relatively remote areas show negative growth.(3) The "hot zones" are around the downtown areas; the "cold zones" lie mainly in the eastern region and Guangming new district. In addition, the index of population concentration is low and the distribution is relatively dispersed. The mean pointer center is showing the trend of the northwest direction. The spatial distribution of population density changed from "1 high center" to "1 high center+1 peripheral center" and then to "1 high center+2 peripheral center".(4) The population growth of Shenzhen is stepping into maturity period from fast growing period, and the pattern of population distribution is in a transitional period from the absolute concentric to the relative concentric period.
The growth pattern and distribution characteristics of population in Shenzhen are analyzed using the statistical yearbook and the data from the 3~(rd) to 6~(th) census by mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis. The main results are as follows:(1) As a rapid immigration city, the population growth of Shenzhen was mainly influenced by economic factors and secondly by political factors.(2) The change of the permanent population is consistent with the change of the migrant population, and the fluctuation of population growth is relatively large. The dispersion coefficients are 0.54 and 0.66 from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010, respectively. The outlying urban areas have mostly rapid growth in population, but those relatively remote areas show negative growth.(3) The "hot zones" are around the downtown areas; the "cold zones" lie mainly in the eastern region and Guangming new district. In addition, the index of population concentration is low and the distribution is relatively dispersed. The mean pointer center is showing the trend of the northwest direction. The spatial distribution of population density changed from "1 high center" to "1 high center+1 peripheral center" and then to "1 high center+2 peripheral center".(4) The population growth of Shenzhen is stepping into maturity period from fast growing period, and the pattern of population distribution is in a transitional period from the absolute concentric to the relative concentric period.
引文
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[19] 李莎,刘卫东.俄罗斯人口分布及其空间格局演化[J].经济地理,2014,34(2):42-49.LI S,LIU W D.Spatial distribution of population in Russia and its evolution[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(2):42-49.
[20] 沈巍,武鑫.基于数据挖掘的北京市人口增长影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):470-473.SHEN W,WU X.Research on factors influencing Beijing population growth based on data mining[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(11):470-473.
[21] MARTORI J C,APPARICIO P,NGUI A N.Understanding immigrant population growth within urban areas:A spatial econometric approach[J].Journal of International Migration & Integration,2014,17(1):1-20.
[22] 封志明,唐焰,杨艳昭,等.中国地形起伏度及其与人口分布的相关性[J].地理学报,2007,62(10):1073-1082.FENG Z M,TANG Y,YANG Y Z,et al.The relief degree of land surface in China and its correlation with population distribution[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2007,62(10):1073-1082.
[23] 周自翔,李晶,任志远.基于GIS的关中-天水经济区地形起伏度与人口分布研究[J].地理科学,2012,32 (8):951-957.ZHOU Z X,LI J,REN Z Y.The relief degree of land surface and population distribution in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region using GIS[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32 (8):951-957.
[24] 戚伟,李颖,刘盛和,等.城市昼夜人口空间分布的估算及其特征——以北京市海淀区为例[J].地理学报,2013,68(10):1344-1356.QI W,LI Y,LIU S H,et al.Estimation of urban population at daytime and nighttime and analyses of their spatial pattern:A case study of Haidian district,Beijing[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(10):1344-1356.
[25] 杜国明,张树文,张有全.城市人口分布的空间自相关分析——以沈阳市为例[J].地理研究,2007,26(2):383 -390.DU G M,ZHANG S W,ZHANG Y Q.Analyzing spatial auto-correlation of population distribution:A case of Shenyang city[J].Geographical Research,2007,26(2):383 -390.
[26] 马淇蔚,李咏华.2000-2010年杭州市人口分布格局时空演变[J].经济地理,2016,36 (8):87-92.MA Q W,LI Y H.Spatial-temporal evolution of population distribution pattern in Hangzhou[J].Economic Geography,2016,36 (8):87-92.
[27] 柏延臣,李新,冯学智.空间数据分析与空间模型[J].地理研究,1999,18(2):74-79.BO Y C,LI X,FENG X Z.Spatial data analysis and spatial models[J].Geographical Research,1999,18(2):74-79.
[28] HAINING R.Spatial data analysis:theory and practice[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003.
[29] 周春山,杨高,王少剑.深圳农民工集聚空间的演变特征及影响机制[J].地理科学,2016,36(11):1643-1653.ZHOU C S,YANG G,WANG S J.The characters and influencing mechanism of spatial-temporal variations of migrant workers in Shenzhen[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(11):1643-1653.
[30] 王爱民,尹向东.城市化地区多目标约束下的适度人口探析——以深圳为例[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2006,45(1):116-120.WANG A M,YIN X D.Research on optmium population under multiple goals restraining in urbanization region:A case study in Shenzhen[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2006,45(1):116-120.
[2] STEWART J Q,WAMTZ W.Physics of population disdribution[J].Journal of Regional Science,1958,1(1):99-121.
[3] BERRY B J L,SIMMONS J W,TENNANT R J.Urban population densities:structure and change[J].Geographical Review,1963,53(3):389-405.
[4] NEWLING B E.The spatial variation of urban population densities[J].Geographical Review,1969,59(2):242-252.
[5] BERRY B J L,KIM H M.Challenges to the monocentric model[J].Geographical Analysis,1993,25(1):1-4.
[6] SKABURSKI A.Inversions in urban density gradients:A brief look at the Vancouver metropolitan area density profile[J].Urban Studies,1989,26(4):397-401.
[7] GARCIA M à.Population suburbanization in Barcelona,1991-2005:Is its spatial structure changing?[J].Journal of Housing Economics,2010,19(2):119-132.
[8] 张善余.近年上海市人口分布态势的巨大变化[J].人口研究,1999,23(5):16-24.ZHANG S Y.The recent dramatic changes in population distribution of Shanghai municipality[J].Population Research,1999,23(5):16-24.
[9] 周一星.北京的郊区化及引发的思考[J].地理科学,1996,16(3):198-206.ZHOU Y X.On the suburbanization of Beijing [J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,1996,16(3):198-206.
[10] 沈建法,王桂新.90年代上海中心城人口分布及其变动趋势的模型研究[J].中国人口科学,2000 (5):45-52.SHEN J F,WANG G X.The model of population distribution and change trend of Shanghai central city in 1990s[J].Chinese Journal of Population Science,2000 (5):45-52.
[11] 周春山.广州市人口空间分布变动模式研究[J].地理学与国土研究,1996,12(3):21-26.ZHOU C S.Study on the pattern for the change of population distribution in Guangzhou city[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,1996,12(3):21-26.
[12] 冯健,周一星.近20年来北京都市区人口增长与分布[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):903-916.FENG J,ZHOU Y X.The growth and distribution of population in Beijing metropolitan area(1980-2000)[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(6):903-916.
[13] 高向东,吴文钰.20世纪90年代上海市人口分布变动及模拟[J].地理学报,2005,60(4):637-644.GAO X D,WU W Y.Population redistribution and modelling of Shanghai city in the 1990s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(4):637-644.
[14] 周春山,罗彦,陈素素.近20年来广州市人口增长与分布的时空间演化分析[J].地理科学,2004,24(6):641-647.ZHOU C S,LUO Y,CHEN S S.Spatial-temporal evolvement of growth and distribution of population in Guangzhou in recent twenty years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2004,24(6):641-647.
[15] 周春山,边艳.1982-2010年广州市人口增长与空间分布演变研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(9):1085 -1092.ZHOU C S,BIAN Y.The growth and distribution of population in Guangzhou city in 1982-2000[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(9):1085 -1092.
[16] 饶烨,宋金平,于伟.北京都市区人口增长的空间规律与机理[J].地理研究,2015,34(1):149-156.RAO Y,SONG J P,YU W.Spatial pattern and mechanism of population growth in metropolitan Beijing[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(1):149-156.
[17] 康停军,张新长,赵元,等.基于GIS和多智能体的城市人口分布模拟[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2012,51(3):135-142.KANG T J,ZHANG X C,ZHAO Y,et al.Simulation for urban population distribution based on GIS and multi-agent[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2012,51(3):135-142.
[18] 王纯彬,外尾一则.地铁城市人口分布演变规律研究——以日本福冈市为例[J].地理科学,2010,30 (4):516-520.WANG C B,HOKAO K.The evolution of population distribution in metro city:A case of Fukuoka city,Japan[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2010,30 (4):516-520.
[19] 李莎,刘卫东.俄罗斯人口分布及其空间格局演化[J].经济地理,2014,34(2):42-49.LI S,LIU W D.Spatial distribution of population in Russia and its evolution[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(2):42-49.
[20] 沈巍,武鑫.基于数据挖掘的北京市人口增长影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(11):470-473.SHEN W,WU X.Research on factors influencing Beijing population growth based on data mining[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2013,23(11):470-473.
[21] MARTORI J C,APPARICIO P,NGUI A N.Understanding immigrant population growth within urban areas:A spatial econometric approach[J].Journal of International Migration & Integration,2014,17(1):1-20.
[22] 封志明,唐焰,杨艳昭,等.中国地形起伏度及其与人口分布的相关性[J].地理学报,2007,62(10):1073-1082.FENG Z M,TANG Y,YANG Y Z,et al.The relief degree of land surface in China and its correlation with population distribution[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2007,62(10):1073-1082.
[23] 周自翔,李晶,任志远.基于GIS的关中-天水经济区地形起伏度与人口分布研究[J].地理科学,2012,32 (8):951-957.ZHOU Z X,LI J,REN Z Y.The relief degree of land surface and population distribution in Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region using GIS[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32 (8):951-957.
[24] 戚伟,李颖,刘盛和,等.城市昼夜人口空间分布的估算及其特征——以北京市海淀区为例[J].地理学报,2013,68(10):1344-1356.QI W,LI Y,LIU S H,et al.Estimation of urban population at daytime and nighttime and analyses of their spatial pattern:A case study of Haidian district,Beijing[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2013,68(10):1344-1356.
[25] 杜国明,张树文,张有全.城市人口分布的空间自相关分析——以沈阳市为例[J].地理研究,2007,26(2):383 -390.DU G M,ZHANG S W,ZHANG Y Q.Analyzing spatial auto-correlation of population distribution:A case of Shenyang city[J].Geographical Research,2007,26(2):383 -390.
[26] 马淇蔚,李咏华.2000-2010年杭州市人口分布格局时空演变[J].经济地理,2016,36 (8):87-92.MA Q W,LI Y H.Spatial-temporal evolution of population distribution pattern in Hangzhou[J].Economic Geography,2016,36 (8):87-92.
[27] 柏延臣,李新,冯学智.空间数据分析与空间模型[J].地理研究,1999,18(2):74-79.BO Y C,LI X,FENG X Z.Spatial data analysis and spatial models[J].Geographical Research,1999,18(2):74-79.
[28] HAINING R.Spatial data analysis:theory and practice[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003.
[29] 周春山,杨高,王少剑.深圳农民工集聚空间的演变特征及影响机制[J].地理科学,2016,36(11):1643-1653.ZHOU C S,YANG G,WANG S J.The characters and influencing mechanism of spatial-temporal variations of migrant workers in Shenzhen[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(11):1643-1653.
[30] 王爱民,尹向东.城市化地区多目标约束下的适度人口探析——以深圳为例[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2006,45(1):116-120.WANG A M,YIN X D.Research on optmium population under multiple goals restraining in urbanization region:A case study in Shenzhen[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2006,45(1):116-120.