黑龙江省近30年气候变化特征分析
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摘要
为揭示黑龙江省1986-2015年的气候变化规律,通过线性倾向率和小波分析等方法,研究分析了1986-2015年黑龙江省年平均温度和年降水量的时空变化特征。结果表明:黑龙江省1986-2015年气温上升率为0.12℃·10 a~(-1),降水量上升率为4.31 mm·10 a~(-1);从南向北温度依次递减;以尚志市为中心,降水量向四周逐渐递减;温度主要存在16 a的主周期和6 a、26 a的变化周期,预测可知2016-2018年的年平均气温呈逐年递减趋势;年降水量存在6、16和27 a三个主周期,拟合可知2016-2018年的年降水量呈逐年递减趋势,同时黑龙江省的年气温和降水量变化整体平稳,不存在显著性突变时间点。
The spatial and temporal variations of annual mean air temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang Province during the past 1986-2015 years was analyzed.The climate change characteristics of Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015 were revealed by using the linear tendency rate and wavelet analysis methods.The results showed that,in the past 1986-2015 years in Heilongjiang Province,the annual mean temperature increased at the trend rate of 0.12 ℃·10 a~(-1),and the annual precipitation increased at the rate of 4.31 mm·10 a~(-1).The temperature in Heilongjiang decreases in sequence from the south to north,showing the obvious latitudinal zonality.The precipitation shows distinct characteristics of longitude,which is centered on Shangzhi City,and gradually diminished outward.The annual mean air temperature in Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015 had characteristics of significant multi-time scale,and the main cycle scales were 16 years with the change periods of 6 a and 26 a.The annual precipitation time series has three main periods: 6 a,16 a and 27 a.Furthermore,it is predicted that annual mean air temperature and precipitation from 2016 to 2018 will be declining year by year.The annual variation of air temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang Province are overall stable,and there is no significant mutation time point.
The spatial and temporal variations of annual mean air temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang Province during the past 1986-2015 years was analyzed.The climate change characteristics of Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015 were revealed by using the linear tendency rate and wavelet analysis methods.The results showed that,in the past 1986-2015 years in Heilongjiang Province,the annual mean temperature increased at the trend rate of 0.12 ℃·10 a~(-1),and the annual precipitation increased at the rate of 4.31 mm·10 a~(-1).The temperature in Heilongjiang decreases in sequence from the south to north,showing the obvious latitudinal zonality.The precipitation shows distinct characteristics of longitude,which is centered on Shangzhi City,and gradually diminished outward.The annual mean air temperature in Heilongjiang Province from 1986 to 2015 had characteristics of significant multi-time scale,and the main cycle scales were 16 years with the change periods of 6 a and 26 a.The annual precipitation time series has three main periods: 6 a,16 a and 27 a.Furthermore,it is predicted that annual mean air temperature and precipitation from 2016 to 2018 will be declining year by year.The annual variation of air temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang Province are overall stable,and there is no significant mutation time point.
引文
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[23] 张雪萍,郭艳清,高梅香,等.黑龙江省西部沙地生态经济系统能值分析——以泰来县为例[J].经济地理,2005,25(5):651-654.
[24] 李庆,尚杰,于法稳.黑龙江省尚志市农业可持续性评价[J].绿色经济,2008(4):91-94.
[2] 高永刚,那济海,顾红,等.黑龙江省气候变化特征分析[J].东北林业大学学报,2007,35(5):47-50.
[3] 杨春艳,沈渭寿,林乃峰.西藏高原气候变化及其差异性[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(2):290-298.
[4] Milly P C D,Dunne K A,Vecchia A V.Global pattern of trends in stream flow and water availability in a changing climate[J].Nature,2005,438:347-350.
[5] 张兰生,方修琦.我国气温变化的区域分异规律[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),1988(3):78-85.
[6] 孙凤华,杨修群,路爽,等.东北地区平均、最高、最低气温时空变化特征及对比分析[J].气象科学,2006,26(2):157-163.
[7] 侯依玲,李栋梁,施雅风,等.50a来中国东北及邻近地区年降水量的年代际异常变化[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(6):839-845.
[8] 任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):943-956.
[9] 白美兰,郝润全,沈建国.近46 a气候变化对呼伦湖区域生态环境的影响[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(1):103-107.
[10] 赵慧颖.呼伦贝尔沙地45年来气候变化及其对生态环境的影响[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(11):1817-1821.
[11] 李天霄,付强,孟凡香,等.黑龙江省降水变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):103-108.
[12] 袁彬.气候变化下东北春玉米气候生产潜力及农业气候资源利用率[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院,2012.
[13] 贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等.1961-2005 年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[14] Ramírez I J,Grady S C.El Niňo,climate,and cholera associations in Piura,Peru,1991-2001:A wavelet analysis[J].Ecohealth,2016,13(1):83-99.
[15] Yang L,Cai X J,Zhang H,et al.Interdependence of foreign exchange markets:A wavelet coherence analysis[J].Economic Modelling,2016,55:6-14.
[16] Huang P,Zhang J,Tang Y,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of PM 2.5 pollution in Xi′an City,China[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2015,12(6):6608-6625.
[17] 李春强,杜毅光,李保国.1965-2005年河北省降水量变化的小波分析[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(11):1340-1344.
[18] Hisdal H,Stahl K.Have stream flow droughts in Europe become more severe or frequent[J].International Journal of Climatology,2001(21):317-333.
[19] Wu H,Soh L K,Samal A,Chen XH.Trend analysis of stream flow drought events in Nebraska[J].Water Resources Management,2008,22:145-164.
[20] 张艺萌,张雪松,郭婷婷,等.辽西北地区气温和降水变化对气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):203-211.
[21] 卢玢宇,杨波,裴占江,等.黑龙江省气候生产潜力时空演变特征研究[J].生态环境学报,2017,26(10):1659-1664.
[22] 王绍武.近百年气候变化与变率的诊断研究[J].气象学报,1994,52(3):261-273.
[23] 张雪萍,郭艳清,高梅香,等.黑龙江省西部沙地生态经济系统能值分析——以泰来县为例[J].经济地理,2005,25(5):651-654.
[24] 李庆,尚杰,于法稳.黑龙江省尚志市农业可持续性评价[J].绿色经济,2008(4):91-94.