FY-4A云导风在GRAPES_RAFS中的同化应用评估
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摘要
云导风资料具有较高的时空分辨率特性,是数值天气预报中重要的非常规观测资料之一。2016年12月我国第二代静止气象卫星风云四号首颗试验卫星(FY-4A)成功发射。依据国家卫星气象中心提供的2017年8月FY-4A卫星红外和高空、低空水汽通道云导风测试数据,选用美国国家环境预报中心的FNL全球分析资料为参考场,对比分析云导风资料观测分布及偏差特征。评估结果表明,FY-4A云导风测试数据分布稳定,水汽通道云导风资料观测数明显多于红外通道;红外通道云导风资料偏差和均方根误差最小,水汽通道云导风资料在高层偏差较大。基于GRAPES_RAFS系统,选取2017年第13号台风天鸽做24 h预报试验。个例试验结果表明,同化FY-4A云导风资料对模式高度场和风场分析有一定调整作用,特别是同化FY-4A水汽通道云导风资料,对强降水落区和强度预报有所改善。
Atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs) can supply plenty of useful information for numerical weather prediction. With the launch of the Chinese next generation geostationary meteorological satellite FY-4 A in December 2016, it is necessary to evaluate the quality of FY-4 A AMVs for the analysis field and precipitation forecast by GRAPES of CM A. In this study, by comparing with the background field based on NCEP FNL data, the qualities of FY-4 A AMVs were assessed, and the results suggested that the distribution of FY-4 A is stable and the quality of FY-4 A infrared AMVs is better than FY-4 A water vapor AMVs. Based on GRAPES_RAFS, three numerical experiments were conducted to examine the impact on analysis and forecast for severe Typhoon Hato at 0000 UTC 23 August 2017. The findings showed that assimilating FY-4 A AMVs, especially FY-4 A water vapor AMVs, has certain adjusting effect on wind and height analysis fields. Furthermore,due to the improvement of the initial fields for the model prediction,the performance of the precipitaion forecast was improved. Conclusively, the FY-4 A AMVs have positive impact on analysis field and precipitation forecast of GRAPES.
Atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs) can supply plenty of useful information for numerical weather prediction. With the launch of the Chinese next generation geostationary meteorological satellite FY-4 A in December 2016, it is necessary to evaluate the quality of FY-4 A AMVs for the analysis field and precipitation forecast by GRAPES of CM A. In this study, by comparing with the background field based on NCEP FNL data, the qualities of FY-4 A AMVs were assessed, and the results suggested that the distribution of FY-4 A is stable and the quality of FY-4 A infrared AMVs is better than FY-4 A water vapor AMVs. Based on GRAPES_RAFS, three numerical experiments were conducted to examine the impact on analysis and forecast for severe Typhoon Hato at 0000 UTC 23 August 2017. The findings showed that assimilating FY-4 A AMVs, especially FY-4 A water vapor AMVs, has certain adjusting effect on wind and height analysis fields. Furthermore,due to the improvement of the initial fields for the model prediction,the performance of the precipitaion forecast was improved. Conclusively, the FY-4 A AMVs have positive impact on analysis field and precipitation forecast of GRAPES.
引文
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方翔,许健民,张其松,2000.高密度云导风资料所揭示的发展和不发展热带气旋的对流层上部环流特征[J].热带气象学报,16(3):218-224. Fang X,Xu J M,Zhang Q S,2000. Developing and nondeveloping tropical cyclones as revealed by high density cloud motion winds[J]. J Trop Meteor, 16(3):218-224(in Chinese).
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何芬,沈桐立,贺哲,等,2007.伴随同化系统中用云导风修正模式地形的试验[J].高原气象,26(2):300-308. He F,Shen T L,He Z,et al,2007. Study on model terrain parameter modification using cloud-derived wind in the MM5 adjoint-model assimilation system[J]. Plateau Meteor,26(2):300-308(in Chinese).
李昊睿,丁伟钰,薛纪善,等,2012. FY-2E云迹风资料的高度调整对“灿都”(1003)台风路径数值预报影响的研究[J].热带气象学报,28(3):348-356. Li H R,Ding W Y,Xue J S,et al,2012. A study on the application of FY-2E cloud drift wind height reassignment in numerical forecast of Typhoon Chanthu(1003)track[J]. J Trop Meteor,28(3):348-356(in Chinese).
李华宏,王曼,薛纪善,等,2008. FY-2C云迹风资料在中尺度数值模式中的应用研究[J].气象学报,66(1):50-58. Li H H,Wang M,Xue J S,et al,2008. A study on the application of FY-2C cloud drift wind in a mesoscale numerical model[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,66(1):50-58(in Chinese).
李宁,沈桐立,闵锦忠,2008.一次台风登陆过程的变分同化模拟试验[J].气象科学,28(3):244-250. Li N,Shen T L,Min J Z,2008.Variational assimilation experiment on landfall of typhoon[J].Sci Meteor Sin,28(3):244-250(in Chinese).
刘瑞,翟国庆,王彰贵,等,2012. FY-2C云迹风资料同化应用对台风预报的影响试验研究[J].大气科学,36(2):350-360.Liu R,Zhai G Q,Wang Z G,et al,2012. Impact of application of cloud motion wind data from FY-2C satellite of typhoon case[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci,36(2):350-360(in Chinese).
任素玲,蒋建莹,许健民,2014.卫星水汽通道探测所揭示的高空流场在南亚高压东侧强降水分析中的应用[J].气象,40(6):697-705. Ren S L, Jiang J Y,Xu J M, 2014. Application of upper troposphere circulation revealed by the satellite IR3 channel to heavy rainfall events analysis in the east side of South Asia high[J]. Meteor Mon,40(6):697-705(in Chinese).
万晓敏,田伟红,韩威,等,2017. FY-2E云导风的算法改进及其在GRAPES中的同化应用研究[J].气象,43(1):1-10. Wan X M,Tian W H,Han W,et al,2017. The evaluation of FY-2E reprocessed IR AMVs in GRAPES[J]. Meteor Mon,43(1):1-10(in Chinese).
王栋梁,梁旭东,端义宏,2005.云迹风在热带气旋路径数值预报中的应用研究[J].气象学报,63(3):351-358. Wang D L,Liang X D,Duan Y H,2005. Impact of four dimensional variational data assimilation of the cloud drift wind data on tropical cyclone track numerical forecast[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,63(3):351-358(in Chinese).
谢超,马学款,2017. 2017年8月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,43(11):1446-1452. Xie C,Ma X K,2017. Analysis of the August2017 atmospheric circulation and weather[J]. Meteor Mon, 43(11):1446-1452(in Chinese).
许健民,郭强,陆其峰,等,2014.风云气象卫星数据处理算法的若干创新[J].气象学报,72(5):1023-1038. Xu J M,Guo Q,Lu Q F,et al,2014. Innovations in the data processing algorithm for Chinese FY meteorological satellites[J]. Acta Meteor Sin, 72(5):1023-1038(in Chinese).
许健民,杨军,张志清,等,2010.我国气象卫星的发展与应用[J].气象,36(7):94-100.Xu J M,Yang J,Zhang Z Q,et al,2010,Chinese meteorological satellites,achievements and applications[J].Meteor Mon,36(7):94-100(in Chinese).
许健民,张其松,2006.卫星风推导和应用综述[J].应用气象学报,17(5):574-582. Xu J M,Zhang Q S,2006. Status review on atmospheric motion vectors-derivation and application[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,17(5):574-582(in Chinese).
徐枝芳,郝民,朱立娟,等,2013. GRAPES_RAFS系统研发[J].气象,39(4):466-477. Xu Z F,Hao M,Zhu L J,et al,2013. On theresearch and development of GRAPES_RAFS[J]. Meteor Mon,39(4):466-477(in Chinese).
张鹏,郭强,陈博洋,等,2016.我国风云四号气象卫星与日本Himawari-8/9卫星比较分析[J].气象科技进展,6(1):72-75. Zhang P,Guo Q,Chen B Y,et al,2016. The Chinese next-generation geostationary meteorological satellite FY-4A compared with the Japanese Himawari-8/9 satellite[J]. Adv Meteor Sci Technol,6(1):72-75(in Chinese).
张其松,许健民,张晓虎,2011.风云二号卫星红外通道风高度指定改进研究[C]//2011年第二十八届中国气象学会年会论文集.厦门:中国气象学会.Zhang Q S,Xu J M,Zhang X H,2011. A study of improving height assignment of FY-2 infrared channel satellite[C]//28th Conference of Chinese Meteorological Society. Xiamen:Chinese Meteorological Society(in Chinese).
张志清,陆风,方翔,等,2017. FY-4卫星应用和发展[J].上海航天,34(4):8-19. Zhang Z Q, Lu F, Fang X, et al,2017. Application and development of FY-4 meteorological satellite[J]. Aerospace Shanghai,34(4):8-19(in Chinese).
周兵,徐海明,吴国雄,等,2002.云迹风资料同化对暴雨预报影响的数值模拟[J].气象学报,60(3):309-317. Zhou B,Xu H M,Wu G X,et al,2002. Numerical simulation of CMWDA with its impacting on torrential rain forecast[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,60(3):309-317(in Chinese).
庄照荣,薛纪善,2004.云迹风资料的三维变分同化及对台风预报的影响试验[J].热带气象学报,20(3):225-236. Zhuang Z R,Xue J S,2004. Assimilation of cloud-derived winds and its impact on typhoon forecast[J]. J Trop Meteor, 20(3):225-236(in Chinese).
Baker N L,Langland R,Pauley P M,et al,2012. The impact of satellite atmospheric motion vectors in the U. S. Navy global data assimilation system-NWP results. Extended abstract[C]//11th International Winds Workshop. New Zealand:University of Auckland.
Berger H,Langland R, Velden C S,et al,2011. Impact of enhanced satellite-derived atmospheric motion vector observations on numerical tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific during TPARC/TCS-08[J]. J Appl Meteor Climatol, 50(11):2309-2318.
Tomassini M,Kelly G,Saunders R,1999. Use and impact of satellite atmospheric motion winds on ECMWF analyses and forecasts[J]. Mon Wea Rev.127(6):971-986.
Velden C S,Olander T L,Wanzong S,1998. The impact of multispectral GOES-8 wind information on Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts in 1995. Part I:dataset methodology,description, and case analysis[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 126(5):1202-1218.
Wu T C,Liu H,Majumdar S J,et al,2014. Influence of assimilating satellite-derived atmospheric motion vector observations on numerical analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity[J]. Mon Wea Rev,142(1):49-71.
陈静,薛纪善,颜宏,2005.一种新型的中尺度暴雨集合预报初值扰动方法研究[J].大气科学,29(5):717-726. Chen J,Xue J S,Yan H,2005. A new initial perturbation method of ensemble mesoscale heavy rain prediction[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci,29(5):717-726(in Chinese).
陈联寿,徐祥德,罗哲贤,等,2002.热带气旋动力学引论[M].北京:气象出版社:39-41,92-99. Chen L S,Xu X D,Luo Z X,et al,2002. An Introduction to Tropical Cyclone Dynamics[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:39-41,92-99(in Chinese).
董瑶海,2016.风云四号气象卫星及其应用展望[J].上海航天,33(2):1-8. Dong Y H,2016. FY-4 Meteorological Satellite and its application prospect[J]. Aerospace Shanghai,33(2):1-8(in Chinese).
方翔,许健民,张其松,2000.高密度云导风资料所揭示的发展和不发展热带气旋的对流层上部环流特征[J].热带气象学报,16(3):218-224. Fang X,Xu J M,Zhang Q S,2000. Developing and nondeveloping tropical cyclones as revealed by high density cloud motion winds[J]. J Trop Meteor, 16(3):218-224(in Chinese).
冯文,万齐林,陈子通,等,2008.逐时云迹风资料同化对暴雨预报的模拟试验[J].气象学报,66(4):500-512. Feng W,Wan Q L,Chen Z T,et al,2008. Hourly assimilation of cloud motion winds and its impact on torrential rain forecas[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,66(4):500-512(in Chinese).
何芬,沈桐立,贺哲,等,2007.伴随同化系统中用云导风修正模式地形的试验[J].高原气象,26(2):300-308. He F,Shen T L,He Z,et al,2007. Study on model terrain parameter modification using cloud-derived wind in the MM5 adjoint-model assimilation system[J]. Plateau Meteor,26(2):300-308(in Chinese).
李昊睿,丁伟钰,薛纪善,等,2012. FY-2E云迹风资料的高度调整对“灿都”(1003)台风路径数值预报影响的研究[J].热带气象学报,28(3):348-356. Li H R,Ding W Y,Xue J S,et al,2012. A study on the application of FY-2E cloud drift wind height reassignment in numerical forecast of Typhoon Chanthu(1003)track[J]. J Trop Meteor,28(3):348-356(in Chinese).
李华宏,王曼,薛纪善,等,2008. FY-2C云迹风资料在中尺度数值模式中的应用研究[J].气象学报,66(1):50-58. Li H H,Wang M,Xue J S,et al,2008. A study on the application of FY-2C cloud drift wind in a mesoscale numerical model[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,66(1):50-58(in Chinese).
李宁,沈桐立,闵锦忠,2008.一次台风登陆过程的变分同化模拟试验[J].气象科学,28(3):244-250. Li N,Shen T L,Min J Z,2008.Variational assimilation experiment on landfall of typhoon[J].Sci Meteor Sin,28(3):244-250(in Chinese).
刘瑞,翟国庆,王彰贵,等,2012. FY-2C云迹风资料同化应用对台风预报的影响试验研究[J].大气科学,36(2):350-360.Liu R,Zhai G Q,Wang Z G,et al,2012. Impact of application of cloud motion wind data from FY-2C satellite of typhoon case[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci,36(2):350-360(in Chinese).
任素玲,蒋建莹,许健民,2014.卫星水汽通道探测所揭示的高空流场在南亚高压东侧强降水分析中的应用[J].气象,40(6):697-705. Ren S L, Jiang J Y,Xu J M, 2014. Application of upper troposphere circulation revealed by the satellite IR3 channel to heavy rainfall events analysis in the east side of South Asia high[J]. Meteor Mon,40(6):697-705(in Chinese).
万晓敏,田伟红,韩威,等,2017. FY-2E云导风的算法改进及其在GRAPES中的同化应用研究[J].气象,43(1):1-10. Wan X M,Tian W H,Han W,et al,2017. The evaluation of FY-2E reprocessed IR AMVs in GRAPES[J]. Meteor Mon,43(1):1-10(in Chinese).
王栋梁,梁旭东,端义宏,2005.云迹风在热带气旋路径数值预报中的应用研究[J].气象学报,63(3):351-358. Wang D L,Liang X D,Duan Y H,2005. Impact of four dimensional variational data assimilation of the cloud drift wind data on tropical cyclone track numerical forecast[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,63(3):351-358(in Chinese).
谢超,马学款,2017. 2017年8月大气环流和天气分析[J].气象,43(11):1446-1452. Xie C,Ma X K,2017. Analysis of the August2017 atmospheric circulation and weather[J]. Meteor Mon, 43(11):1446-1452(in Chinese).
许健民,郭强,陆其峰,等,2014.风云气象卫星数据处理算法的若干创新[J].气象学报,72(5):1023-1038. Xu J M,Guo Q,Lu Q F,et al,2014. Innovations in the data processing algorithm for Chinese FY meteorological satellites[J]. Acta Meteor Sin, 72(5):1023-1038(in Chinese).
许健民,杨军,张志清,等,2010.我国气象卫星的发展与应用[J].气象,36(7):94-100.Xu J M,Yang J,Zhang Z Q,et al,2010,Chinese meteorological satellites,achievements and applications[J].Meteor Mon,36(7):94-100(in Chinese).
许健民,张其松,2006.卫星风推导和应用综述[J].应用气象学报,17(5):574-582. Xu J M,Zhang Q S,2006. Status review on atmospheric motion vectors-derivation and application[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci,17(5):574-582(in Chinese).
徐枝芳,郝民,朱立娟,等,2013. GRAPES_RAFS系统研发[J].气象,39(4):466-477. Xu Z F,Hao M,Zhu L J,et al,2013. On theresearch and development of GRAPES_RAFS[J]. Meteor Mon,39(4):466-477(in Chinese).
张鹏,郭强,陈博洋,等,2016.我国风云四号气象卫星与日本Himawari-8/9卫星比较分析[J].气象科技进展,6(1):72-75. Zhang P,Guo Q,Chen B Y,et al,2016. The Chinese next-generation geostationary meteorological satellite FY-4A compared with the Japanese Himawari-8/9 satellite[J]. Adv Meteor Sci Technol,6(1):72-75(in Chinese).
张其松,许健民,张晓虎,2011.风云二号卫星红外通道风高度指定改进研究[C]//2011年第二十八届中国气象学会年会论文集.厦门:中国气象学会.Zhang Q S,Xu J M,Zhang X H,2011. A study of improving height assignment of FY-2 infrared channel satellite[C]//28th Conference of Chinese Meteorological Society. Xiamen:Chinese Meteorological Society(in Chinese).
张志清,陆风,方翔,等,2017. FY-4卫星应用和发展[J].上海航天,34(4):8-19. Zhang Z Q, Lu F, Fang X, et al,2017. Application and development of FY-4 meteorological satellite[J]. Aerospace Shanghai,34(4):8-19(in Chinese).
周兵,徐海明,吴国雄,等,2002.云迹风资料同化对暴雨预报影响的数值模拟[J].气象学报,60(3):309-317. Zhou B,Xu H M,Wu G X,et al,2002. Numerical simulation of CMWDA with its impacting on torrential rain forecast[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,60(3):309-317(in Chinese).
庄照荣,薛纪善,2004.云迹风资料的三维变分同化及对台风预报的影响试验[J].热带气象学报,20(3):225-236. Zhuang Z R,Xue J S,2004. Assimilation of cloud-derived winds and its impact on typhoon forecast[J]. J Trop Meteor, 20(3):225-236(in Chinese).
Baker N L,Langland R,Pauley P M,et al,2012. The impact of satellite atmospheric motion vectors in the U. S. Navy global data assimilation system-NWP results. Extended abstract[C]//11th International Winds Workshop. New Zealand:University of Auckland.
Berger H,Langland R, Velden C S,et al,2011. Impact of enhanced satellite-derived atmospheric motion vector observations on numerical tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific during TPARC/TCS-08[J]. J Appl Meteor Climatol, 50(11):2309-2318.
Tomassini M,Kelly G,Saunders R,1999. Use and impact of satellite atmospheric motion winds on ECMWF analyses and forecasts[J]. Mon Wea Rev.127(6):971-986.
Velden C S,Olander T L,Wanzong S,1998. The impact of multispectral GOES-8 wind information on Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts in 1995. Part I:dataset methodology,description, and case analysis[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 126(5):1202-1218.
Wu T C,Liu H,Majumdar S J,et al,2014. Influence of assimilating satellite-derived atmospheric motion vector observations on numerical analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity[J]. Mon Wea Rev,142(1):49-71.