基于反规划与FLUS模型的城市增长边界划定研究——以重庆市渝北区为例
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摘要
为探索能够兼顾政策规划与自然发展规律的城市增长边界(UGB)划定方法,以重庆市渝北区为例,利用土地利用、社会经济和多种空间规划等数据,通过边际土地利用法测算3种产业转型速率情景下城镇建设用地规模需求,基于反规划理念,引入多规合一与FLUS模型模拟土地利用空间布局,并划定3种产业转型情景下的渝北区刚性、近远期弹性UGB。结果表明:(1)结合多规合一与土地利用现状,人为制定模拟初期土地利用图,能够保证边界划定结果满足规划发展需求;(2)产业转型使渝北区兴隆、古路、石船等镇城市扩张减速,远期弹性UGB划定结果适度紧缩;(3)渝北区刚性UGB依三山布局,剩余可开发总面积59 520.72 hm~2,近期与3种情景下远期弹性UGB划定面积分别为35 781.78、48 343.61、44 731.33、41 061.13 hm~2,未纳入弹性UGB的剩余可开发空间主要位于洛碛、古路镇与双凤桥街道机场用地区。该研究方法考虑了UGB的刚性控制与弹性引导,综合了自上而下的政策因素与自下而上的自然规律因素,是实现生态保障与城市精明增长的有效方法途径。
The purpose of this study is to explore the UGB delimiting method, which can address concerns on both policy planning and the pattern of natural development. Taking Yubei district of Chongqing as the case study area, the study is based on the data of land-use, social economy and multiple spatial planning, and the urban land demands in three different industrial transformation speeds scenes are calculated by the method of "Marginal land-use". Then based on the idea of "anti-planning", the Multi-plan integration and FLUS model is introduced to explore the land-use distribution, and the rigid UGB, short-term and long-term flexible UGB in three industrial transformation scenes are delimited. The result shows that:1) Artificial initial land-use, which combines Multi-plan integration and land-use status, make the UGB delimiting result adapt to the demand of development planning. 2) Industrial transformation slows down the urban-land expansion in Towns of Xinglong, Gulu and Shichuan, and the long-term flexible UGB delimitation result shows a moderate diminish. 3) The rigid UGB in Yubei district distributes along the three mountains, and the area of remaining land that can be developed beyond the rigid UGB is 59 520.72 hm~2. The areas of short-term and long-term flexible UGB in three scenes are 35781.780, 48 343.61, 44 731.33 and 41 061.13 hm~2, respectively. The remaining land neither in rigid UGB nor in flexible UGB mainly distribute in towns of Luoqi, Gulu and the airport area in Shuangfengqiao Street. The methods used in this study take the rigid and flexible concept of UGB into consideration and combines the Top-down politic factors and Down-top natural pattern factors effectually. The UGB delimiting results would make it effective to achieve ecological security and urban smart growth.
The purpose of this study is to explore the UGB delimiting method, which can address concerns on both policy planning and the pattern of natural development. Taking Yubei district of Chongqing as the case study area, the study is based on the data of land-use, social economy and multiple spatial planning, and the urban land demands in three different industrial transformation speeds scenes are calculated by the method of "Marginal land-use". Then based on the idea of "anti-planning", the Multi-plan integration and FLUS model is introduced to explore the land-use distribution, and the rigid UGB, short-term and long-term flexible UGB in three industrial transformation scenes are delimited. The result shows that:1) Artificial initial land-use, which combines Multi-plan integration and land-use status, make the UGB delimiting result adapt to the demand of development planning. 2) Industrial transformation slows down the urban-land expansion in Towns of Xinglong, Gulu and Shichuan, and the long-term flexible UGB delimitation result shows a moderate diminish. 3) The rigid UGB in Yubei district distributes along the three mountains, and the area of remaining land that can be developed beyond the rigid UGB is 59 520.72 hm~2. The areas of short-term and long-term flexible UGB in three scenes are 35781.780, 48 343.61, 44 731.33 and 41 061.13 hm~2, respectively. The remaining land neither in rigid UGB nor in flexible UGB mainly distribute in towns of Luoqi, Gulu and the airport area in Shuangfengqiao Street. The methods used in this study take the rigid and flexible concept of UGB into consideration and combines the Top-down politic factors and Down-top natural pattern factors effectually. The UGB delimiting results would make it effective to achieve ecological security and urban smart growth.
引文
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[2] 韩昊英,吴次芳,赖世刚.城市增长边界控制模式研究——基于土地存量控制的分析框架 [J].规划师,2012(3):16-20.HAN H Y,WU C F,LAI S G.Urban growth boundary control research:A land stock based analysis framework [J].Planners,2012(3):16-20.
[3] 龙瀛,韩昊英,毛其智.利用约束性CA制定城市增长边界 [J].地理学报,2009(8):999-1008.LONG Y,HAN H Y,MAO Q Z.Establishing urban growth boundaries using constrained CA [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009(8):999-1008.
[4] 丛佃敏,赵书河,于涛,等.综合生态安全格局构建与城市扩张模拟的城市增长边界划定——以天水市规划区(2015—2030年)为例 [J].自然资源学报,2018,33(1):14-26.CONG D M,ZHAO S H,YU T,et al.Urban growth boundary delimitation method integrating comprehensive ecological security pattern and urban expansion simulation:A case study of planning areas in Tian shui city(2015-2030) [J].Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(1):14-26.
[5] 张卢奔.空间—规模约束下的城市增长边界划定研究 [D].南京:南京大学,2015.ZHANG L B.Study on delineation of urban development boundary under spatial constraints and scale constraints [D].Nanjing:Nanjing University,2015.
[6] 张星星.基于ABM模型的重庆主城城市增长边界划定 [D].重庆:西南大学,2016.ZHANG X X.Delineating urban growth boundaries using ABM Model:The case of Chongqing [D].Chongqing:Southwest University,2016.
[7] JEFFREY M.Comparison of the structure and accuracy of two land change models [J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2005(2) :243-265
[8] 孙金.“多规合一”思路下的城乡建设用地增长边界划定方法研究 [D].杭州:浙江大学,2015.SUN J.Setting the expansion boundary of urban and rural construction land under the thinking of multiple planning integration [D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2015.
[9] 周洋.基于城市扩展模拟的城市开发边界划定方法研究 [D].南京:南京师范大学,2017.ZHOU Y.A wethod research of Delimitation of urban gronth boundary based on the simulation of urban expansion [D].Nanjing:Nanjing Normal University,2017.
[10] 羊槐.温州市中心城区城市增长边界研究 [D].杭州:浙江大学,2015.YANG H.Researches on urban expansion boundary of Wenzhou Central Urban Area [D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2015.
[11] 刘辉,张志赟,税伟,等.资源枯竭型城市增长边界划定研究——以淮北市为例 [J].自然资源学报,2017,32(3):391-405.LIU H,ZHANG Z Y,SHUI Y,et al.Urban growth boundary delimitation of resource-exhausted cities:A case study of Huaibei City [J].Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(3):391-405.
[12] 赵之枫,巩冉冉,张健.我国城市增长边界划定模式比较研究 [J].规划师,2017,33(7):105-111.ZHAO Z F,GONG R R.ZHANG J.A comparative study of china’s urban development boundary delimitation [J].Planners,2017,33(7):105-111.
[13] 朱寿红,舒帮荣,马晓冬,等.基于“反规划”理念及FLUS模型的城镇用地增长边界划定研究——以徐州市贾汪区为例 [J].地理与地理信息科学,2017,33(5):80-86,127.ZHU S H,SHU B R,MA X D,et al.The delimitation of urban growth boundary based on the idea of “Anti-planning” and FLUS model:A case study of Jiawang district,Xuzhou city [J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2017,33(5):80-86,127.
[14] 王振波,张蔷,张晓瑞,等.基于资源环境承载力的合肥市增长边界划定 [J].地理研究,2013,32(12):2302-2311.WANG Z B,ZHANG Q,ZHANG X R,et al.Urban growth boundary delimitation of Hefei City based on the resources and environment carrying capability [J].Geographical Research,2013,32(12):2302-2311.
[15] 储金龙,王佩,顾康康,等.基于生态安全格局的安庆市规划区空间管制分区研究 [J].安徽建筑大学学报,2016(3):100-107.CHU J L,WANG P,GU K K,et al.Study on spatial regulation zoning of Anqing city planning from the perspective of ecological security [J].Journal of Anhui Jianzhu University,2016(3):100-107.
[16] 刘焱序,彭建,孙茂龙,等.基于生态适宜与风险控制的城市新区增长边界划定——以济宁市太白湖新区为例 [J].应用生态学报,2016,27(8):2605-2613.LIU Y X,PENG J,SUN M L,et al.Delimitation of urban growth boundary based on ecological suitability and risk control:A case of Taibai Lake New District in Jining City,Shandong,China [J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2016,27(8):2605-2613.
[17] 周锐,王新军,苏海龙,等.基于生态安全格局的城市增长边界划定——以平顶山新区为例 [J].城市规划学刊,2014(4):57-63.ZHOU R,WANG X P,SU H L,et al.Delimitation of urban growth boundary based on ecological security pattern [J].Urban Planning Forum,2014(4):57-63.
[18] 吴健生,毛家颖,林倩,等.基于生境质量的城市增长边界研究——以长三角地区为例 [J].地理科学,2017,37(1):28-36.WU J S,MAO J Y,LIN Q,et al.Urban growth boundary based on the evaluation of habitat quality:Taking the Yangtze River delta as an example [J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(1):28-36.
[19] 叶领宾.桐乡市城市增长边界划定研究 [D].杭州:浙江大学,2015.YE L B.The study on designation of Tongxiang Urban Growth Boundaries [D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2015.
[20 ] 陈伟强,潘元庆,马月红,等.基于约束性CA模型的城市增长边界划定方法 [J].农业工程学报,2017,33(4):278-284.CHEN W Q,PAN Y Q,MA Y H,et al.Partition menthod of urban development boundary based on constrained cellular automata model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2017,33(4):278-284.
[21] LOW C D,SERRAO-NEUMANN S,CRICK F.Adaptation options for human settlements in south east Queensland[R].In The South east Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative Report,Brisbane:Griffith University,2012:15-26.
[22] 付玲,胡业翠,郑新奇.基于BP 神经网络的城市增长边界预测 [J].中国土地科学,2016,30(2):22-30.FU L,HU YC,ZHENG X Q.The prediction of urban growth boundary based on BP artificial neural networks:An application to Beijing [J].China Land Sciences,2016,30(2):22-30.
[23] 苏伟忠,杨桂山,陈爽,等.城市增长边界分析方法研究——以长江三角洲常州市为例 [J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):322-331.SU W Z,YANG G S,CHEN S,et al.Analysis method of urban growth boundary of the Changzhou Cityin the Yangtze River Delta [J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(2):322-331.
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