阜阳市天然气能源系统模型研究
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摘要
为科学合理地对阜阳市天然气能源进行研究和预测,提出了天然气能源的logistic模型。以统计检验估计法对模型中的天然气经济增长系数和天然气对阜阳市的需求最大缺口量进行了预测估计,借由《安徽统计年鉴》数据定量分析了未来10 a阜阳市天然气的发展趋势,为阜阳市的天然气能源系统提供了合理的供需参考及城市能源系统的安全战略参考。
This paper presented a logistic model of natural gas energy for scientific and reasonable analysis and prediction of natural gas energy in Fuyang City. By the statistical test estimation method, this paper predicted and estimated the economic growth coefficient of natural gas in the model and the maximum gap of natural gas demand in Fuyang City and quantitatively analyzed the development trend of natural gas in Fuyang City in the next 10 years based on the data of Anhui Statistical Yearbook, which provides reasonable reference for supply and demand and a safety strategy reference for urban energy system of the natural gas energy system in Fuyang City.
This paper presented a logistic model of natural gas energy for scientific and reasonable analysis and prediction of natural gas energy in Fuyang City. By the statistical test estimation method, this paper predicted and estimated the economic growth coefficient of natural gas in the model and the maximum gap of natural gas demand in Fuyang City and quantitatively analyzed the development trend of natural gas in Fuyang City in the next 10 years based on the data of Anhui Statistical Yearbook, which provides reasonable reference for supply and demand and a safety strategy reference for urban energy system of the natural gas energy system in Fuyang City.
引文
[1]张涛,杨娇敏.我国区域天然气消费量的趋势预测[J].天然气工业,2016,6(9):135-140.
[2]SPAZZAFUMO G.Storing renewable energies in a substitute of natural gas[J].International journal of hydrogen energy,2016(41):19492-19498.
[3]HITTINGER E,LUEKEN R.Is inexpensive natural gas hindering the grid energy storage industry?[J].Energy policy,2015(87):140-152.
[4]MIGNONE B K,SHOWALTER S.Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations[J].Energy policy,2017(110):518-524.
[5]MCGLADE C,PYE S.The future role of natural gas in the UK:a bridge to nowhere?[J].Energy policy,2018(113):454-465.
[6]王震,薛庆.充分发挥天然气在我国现代能源体系构建中的主力作用[J].天然气工业,2017,37(3):1-8.
[7]解东来,聂廷哲,高华伟.广东省天然气利用的竞争性分析[J].城市燃气,2015,7(485):19-23.
[8]汤旸.浅谈天然气能源的市场现状[J].经验交流,2016(25):315.
[9]李宏勋,杜媛媛,包郁鹏.从电力需求侧管理看中国天然气调峰[J].天然气工业,2011,31(2):107-109.
[10]刘毅军,马莉.低油价对天然气产业链的影响[J].天然气工业,2016,36(6):98-109.
[11]叶张煌,王安建.全球天然气格局分析和我国的发展战略[J].地球学报,2017,38(1):17-24.
[12]彭澎.关于加快我国天然气金融市场发展的思考[J].天然气工业,2016,36(7):117-124.
[13]程承,王震.中国进口天然气能源投资回报分析[J].中国矿业,2017,26(4):28-34.
[14]陆英,丁华,施琰,等.阜阳地区非常规气藏勘探前景分析[J].复杂油气藏,2011(4):5-9.
[15]赵柳蓉,田立新.西部能源结构的Logistic模型及其预测[J].管理学报,2008(5):678-681.
[2]SPAZZAFUMO G.Storing renewable energies in a substitute of natural gas[J].International journal of hydrogen energy,2016(41):19492-19498.
[3]HITTINGER E,LUEKEN R.Is inexpensive natural gas hindering the grid energy storage industry?[J].Energy policy,2015(87):140-152.
[4]MIGNONE B K,SHOWALTER S.Sensitivity of natural gas deployment in the US power sector to future carbon policy expectations[J].Energy policy,2017(110):518-524.
[5]MCGLADE C,PYE S.The future role of natural gas in the UK:a bridge to nowhere?[J].Energy policy,2018(113):454-465.
[6]王震,薛庆.充分发挥天然气在我国现代能源体系构建中的主力作用[J].天然气工业,2017,37(3):1-8.
[7]解东来,聂廷哲,高华伟.广东省天然气利用的竞争性分析[J].城市燃气,2015,7(485):19-23.
[8]汤旸.浅谈天然气能源的市场现状[J].经验交流,2016(25):315.
[9]李宏勋,杜媛媛,包郁鹏.从电力需求侧管理看中国天然气调峰[J].天然气工业,2011,31(2):107-109.
[10]刘毅军,马莉.低油价对天然气产业链的影响[J].天然气工业,2016,36(6):98-109.
[11]叶张煌,王安建.全球天然气格局分析和我国的发展战略[J].地球学报,2017,38(1):17-24.
[12]彭澎.关于加快我国天然气金融市场发展的思考[J].天然气工业,2016,36(7):117-124.
[13]程承,王震.中国进口天然气能源投资回报分析[J].中国矿业,2017,26(4):28-34.
[14]陆英,丁华,施琰,等.阜阳地区非常规气藏勘探前景分析[J].复杂油气藏,2011(4):5-9.
[15]赵柳蓉,田立新.西部能源结构的Logistic模型及其预测[J].管理学报,2008(5):678-681.