三江平原典型区水田时空变化及驱动因素分析
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摘要
为阐明区域水田时空变化特征及其驱动因素,该文以三江平原典型地区富锦市为例,运用网格单元法和地理探测器模型分析不同时段(1989—2002年、2002—2015年)水田时空变化特征及驱动因素,探讨各驱动因子在水田时空变化中的作用及其相互关系。结果表明:1)1989—2015年富锦市水田扩张明显,新增水田34.99万hm~2,垦区水田化进程早于农区。1989—2002年,东部垦区水田扩张度较高,南部次之;2002—2015年,水田扩张度较高的地区主要分布在西南部农区与北部垦区。2)1989—2002年,水田扩张的主要驱动因素为政策因素和土壤类型,各因子间的交互作用大部分是双因子增强;2002—2015年,自然因素对水田变化影响减弱,水田扩张的主要驱动因素是到河流距离和到铁路距离,各因子间的交互作用大部分是非线性增强,水田化发展到成熟阶段。富锦市水田时空变化差异是由多种驱动因子共同作用的结果,研究结果可为三江平原耕地资源合理利用及水田规模科学管控提供借鉴和参考。
Over the last three decades, paddy fields on the Sanjiang Plain have experienced rapid expansion. It has an important impact on regional food security, ecological environment and socio-economic development. Fujin is a typical area of Sanjiang Plain, with both common agricultural area and reclamation area, and the land use pattern is the epitome of Sanjiang Plain. In our study, used 1 000 m×1 000 m grid cell to scientifically analyze the spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of paddy fields, in Fujin from 1989 to 2002 and from 2002 to 2015. And elevation, slope, soil type, distance to railway, distance to river, distance to town and policy factors were selected as driving factors in this paper. With the help of GeoD etector, we analyzed the role of these seven factors in paddy field change and their relationship. The results indicated that such paddy fields have increased by approximately 349 900 hm~2 from 1989 to 2015, and the paddy field process of reclamation area was earlier than that of common agricultural area. In the early 1990 s, in order to adjust the agricultural planting structure, the local government began to encourage farmers to plant paddy rice in large areas. During this period, paddy rice planting area increased rapidly. From 1989 to 2002, the areas with the high proportion of paddy field expansion were mainly located in the reclamation areas in the northeast and southeast of Fujin County, and some other agricultural areas. From 2002 to 2015, the project of cultivated land development and improvement was implemented, and the cultivated land in Fujin reached a high level of agricultural development, and all the conditional areas were basically converted to paddy fields. The areas with higher proportion of paddy field expansion were mainly located in the southwestern common agricultural area and the northern reclamation area of Fujin City. In addition, the main driving factors of paddy field expansion in 1989-2002 were policy factors and soil types. The interaction between these factors was mostly enhanced by two factors. It showed that in the 1990 s, under the guidance of the policy of agricultural structure adjustment, Fujin took the lead in reforming the soil types suitable for paddy fields and the land with superior location conditions. As a result, a large number of cultivated land resources with superior development conditions in the eastern reclamation area of Fujin were reclaimed into paddy fields. From 2002 to 2015, the influence of natural factors on paddy field change becomes weaker. The main driving factors of paddy field expansion are the distance from rivers to railways, and the interaction among these factors is mostly non-linear. Natural factors are no longer the key to restrict the development of paddy fields. Driven by market interests, dryland that meets the conditions of paddy field transformation is converted to paddy fields. The spatial difference of paddy field change in Sanjiang Plain is the result of the interaction of various driving factors. The driving factors and their relationships are different in different periods. Geographic detectors can make a more comprehensive analysis of various influencing factors. The results can provide theoretical basis for the protection of cultivated land and the rational utilization of cultivated land resources in Sanjiang Plain.
Over the last three decades, paddy fields on the Sanjiang Plain have experienced rapid expansion. It has an important impact on regional food security, ecological environment and socio-economic development. Fujin is a typical area of Sanjiang Plain, with both common agricultural area and reclamation area, and the land use pattern is the epitome of Sanjiang Plain. In our study, used 1 000 m×1 000 m grid cell to scientifically analyze the spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of paddy fields, in Fujin from 1989 to 2002 and from 2002 to 2015. And elevation, slope, soil type, distance to railway, distance to river, distance to town and policy factors were selected as driving factors in this paper. With the help of GeoD etector, we analyzed the role of these seven factors in paddy field change and their relationship. The results indicated that such paddy fields have increased by approximately 349 900 hm~2 from 1989 to 2015, and the paddy field process of reclamation area was earlier than that of common agricultural area. In the early 1990 s, in order to adjust the agricultural planting structure, the local government began to encourage farmers to plant paddy rice in large areas. During this period, paddy rice planting area increased rapidly. From 1989 to 2002, the areas with the high proportion of paddy field expansion were mainly located in the reclamation areas in the northeast and southeast of Fujin County, and some other agricultural areas. From 2002 to 2015, the project of cultivated land development and improvement was implemented, and the cultivated land in Fujin reached a high level of agricultural development, and all the conditional areas were basically converted to paddy fields. The areas with higher proportion of paddy field expansion were mainly located in the southwestern common agricultural area and the northern reclamation area of Fujin City. In addition, the main driving factors of paddy field expansion in 1989-2002 were policy factors and soil types. The interaction between these factors was mostly enhanced by two factors. It showed that in the 1990 s, under the guidance of the policy of agricultural structure adjustment, Fujin took the lead in reforming the soil types suitable for paddy fields and the land with superior location conditions. As a result, a large number of cultivated land resources with superior development conditions in the eastern reclamation area of Fujin were reclaimed into paddy fields. From 2002 to 2015, the influence of natural factors on paddy field change becomes weaker. The main driving factors of paddy field expansion are the distance from rivers to railways, and the interaction among these factors is mostly non-linear. Natural factors are no longer the key to restrict the development of paddy fields. Driven by market interests, dryland that meets the conditions of paddy field transformation is converted to paddy fields. The spatial difference of paddy field change in Sanjiang Plain is the result of the interaction of various driving factors. The driving factors and their relationships are different in different periods. Geographic detectors can make a more comprehensive analysis of various influencing factors. The results can provide theoretical basis for the protection of cultivated land and the rational utilization of cultivated land resources in Sanjiang Plain.
引文
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[21]买买提江·买提尼亚孜,阿里木江·卡斯木.基于网格单元的乌鲁木齐市土地覆被/利用时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(1):210-216.Maimaitijiang Maitiniyazi,Alimujiang Kasimu.Spatial-temporal change of Urumqi urban land use and land cover based on grid cell approach[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2018,34(1):210-216.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]杨忍,刘彦随,龙花楼,等.基于格网的农村居民点用地时空特征及空间指向性的地理要素识别:以环渤海地区为例[J].地理研究,2015,34(6):1077-1087.Yang Ren,Liu Yansui,Long Hualou.et al.patial-temporal characteristics of rural residential land use change and spatial directivity identification based on grid in the Bohai Rim in China[J].Geographical Research,2015,34(6):1077-1087.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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[2]Vliet J,Groot H L F,Rietveld P,et al.Manifestations and underlying drivers of agricultural land use change in Europe[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2015,133:24-36.
[3]Song Jie,Cai Dongyan,Deng Jinsong,et al.Dynamics of paddy field patterns in response to urbanization:A case study of the Hang-Jia-Hu Plain[J].Sustainability,2015,7:13813-13835.
[4]吴莉,侯西勇,徐新良.环渤海沿海区域耕地格局及影响因子分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(9):1-10.Wu Li,Hou Xiyong,Xu Xinliang.Analysis of spatial pattern of farmland and its impacting factors in coastal zone of Circum Bohai[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2014,30(9):1-10.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]Yan Fengqin,Yu Lingxue,Yang Chaobin,et al.Paddy field expansion and aggregation since the mid-1950s in a cold region and its possible causes[J].Remote sensing,2018,10:384-401.
[6]宋戈,杨雪昕,高佳.三江平原典型地区水田分布格局变化特征[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(8):61-68.Song Ge,Yang Xuexin,Gao Jia.Study on the distribution patterns and characteristics of Paddy cropland in the typical area of Sanjiang Plain[J].China Land Sciences,2017,31(8):61-68.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]姜秋香,付强,王子龙,等.三江平原水土资源空间匹配格局[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):270-277.Jiang Qiuxiang,Fu Qiang,Wang Zilong,et al.Spatial matching patterns of land and water resources in Sanjiang Plain[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(2):270-277.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]Jin Jianjun,Jiang Chong,Li Lun.The economic valuation of cultivated land protection:A contingent valuation study in Wenling City,China[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2013,119:158-164.
[9]郇红艳,谭清美,朱平.城乡一体化进程中耕地利用变化的驱动因素及区域比较[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(21):201-213.Huan Hongyan,Tan Qingmei,Zhu Ping.Driving factors of cultivated land use change in city and countryside integration process and region comparisons[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2013,29(21):201-213.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]欧阳玲,王宗明,贾明明,等.基于遥感的吉林省中西部耕地数量和质量空间格局变化分析[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(13):234-242.Ouyang Ling,Wang Zongming,Jia Mingming,et al.Spatial pattern analysis on quantity and quality of cultivated land in mid-west Jilin province based on remote sensing[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2016,32(13):234-242.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]刘敏,赵翠薇,施明辉.贵州山区土地利用变化多尺度空间自相关分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(20):239-246.Liu Min,Zhao Cuiwei,Shi Minghui.Spatial autocorrelation analysis of multi-scale land use change at mountainous areasin Guizhou province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(20):239-246.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]刘艳军,于会胜,刘德刚,等.东北地区建设用地开发强度格局演变的空间分异机制[J].地理学报,2018,73(5):818-831.Liu Yanjun,Yu Huisheng,Liu Degang,et al.Spatial differentiation mechanisms of the pattern evolution of construction land development intensity in Northeast China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(5):818-831.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.Wang Jinfeng,Xu Chengdong.Geodetector:Principle and prospective[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]Wang J F,Li X H,Christakos G,et al.Geographical detectors-based health risk assessment and its application in the neural tube defects study of the Heshun region,China[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science.2010,24(1):107-127.
[15]李娜,雷国平,张慧,等.水田化进程下挠力河流域耕地时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(5):63-67+73.Li Na,Lei Guoping,Zhang Hui,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of farmland due to paddy field expansion in Naolihe River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(5):63-67+73.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]朱宇.黑龙江屯垦史[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017.
[17]刘焕军,于胜男,张新乐,等.一年一季农作物遥感分类的时效性分析[J].中国农业科学,2017,50(5):830-839.Liu Huanjun,Yu Shengnan,Zhang Xinle,et al.Timeliness analysis of crop remote sensing classification one crop a year[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2017,50(5):830-839.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]刘吉平,马长迪,刘雁,等.基于地理探测器的沼泽湿地变化驱动因子定量分析:以小三江平原为例[J].东北师大学报:自然科学版,2017,49(2):127-135.Liu Jiping,Ma Changdi,Liu Yan,et al.Quantitative study on the driving factors of marsh change based in Geographical Dector:Case study on Small Sanjiang Plain[J].Journal of Northeast Normal University:Natural Science Edition,2017,49(2):127-135.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]胡金晓,朱明,濮励杰,等.交通道路对区域土地利用变化的影响研究进展[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(1):205-214.Hu Jinxiao,Zhu Ming,Pu Lijie,et al.Progress of the research on the influence of traffic road on regional land use change[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2018,27(1):205-214.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]刘超,霍永伟,许月卿,等.生态退耕前后张家口市耕地变化及影响因素识别[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(10):1806-1820.Liu Chao,Huo Yongwei,Xu Yueqing,et al.Changes in cultivated land and influencing factors before and after the implementation of grain for green project in Zhangjiakou City[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(10):1806-1820.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]买买提江·买提尼亚孜,阿里木江·卡斯木.基于网格单元的乌鲁木齐市土地覆被/利用时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(1):210-216.Maimaitijiang Maitiniyazi,Alimujiang Kasimu.Spatial-temporal change of Urumqi urban land use and land cover based on grid cell approach[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2018,34(1):210-216.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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