关于“全面二孩”政策实施效果的研究——基于指数平滑法和“投射——实施后”对比分析法
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摘要
[目的]系统分析并评价"全面二孩"政策实施的效果,为调整和完善生育政策、提升生育水平以及促进人口合理化均衡发展提供参考。[方法]运用文献分析法确定评价效果的相关指标,利用指数平滑法根据2005-2015年相关人口指标预测2016-2017年的数值,通过"投射——实施后"对比分析法将预测值与2016-2017年的实际值进行比较,在此基础上分析"全面二孩"政策实施后的人口效果。[结果]实施"全面二孩政策"后,2016年总体远超出预期,人口总量大幅增加(差异度为18. 10%),全年出生人口和人口自然增长率也明显上升(差异度为4. 60%和14. 90%)。2017年则与预期相差不大,总人口增量略有减少(差异度-0. 06%),全年出生人口和人口自然增长率略有增长(差异度为0. 04%和0. 05%)。[结论]"全面二孩"政策实施后的人口效果已经有所显现,但未能达到预期目标。要想进一步巩固和强化二孩政策的实施效果,还需要制定相应的配套政策,并加强对新政策的宣传力度,同时继续宣传性别平等观,培养鼓励再生育的文化氛围。
Objective To analyze and evaluate the implementation effect of"Universal Two-Child"policy so as to provide references for adjusting and improving fertility policy,raising fertility level and promoting rational and balanced development of the population. Methods Literature analysis method was used to determine relevant indicators of evaluation effect. Exponential smoothing method was used to predict the value from2016 to 2017 according to relevant population indicator from 2005 to 2015. Compared predicted value and actual value data from 2016 to 2017 through"projection——implemented"comparative analysis. Based on that,it analyzed population effect after the implementation of"Universal Two-Child"policy. Results After the implementation of"universal two-child"policy,the overall situation in 2016 was much higher than expected. Population gross grew greatly( diversity factor was 18. 10%). Annual birth population and natural population growth rate also increased significantly( diversity factor was 4. 60% and 14. 90%). In 2017,there was little difference from the expectation. Total population increment was slightly reduced( diversity factor was-0. 06% difference). Annual birth population and natural population growth rate increased slightly( diversity factor was 0. 04% and 0. 05%). Conclusions The population effect after the implementation of "universal two-child"policy has been appeared,but fails to achieve expected goals. In order to further consolidate and strengthen the implementation effect of two-child policy,it is necessary to formulate corresponding supporting policies,strengthen the publicity of new policies,continue to publicize the concept of gender equality,and cultivate cultural atmosphere that encourage reproduction.
Objective To analyze and evaluate the implementation effect of"Universal Two-Child"policy so as to provide references for adjusting and improving fertility policy,raising fertility level and promoting rational and balanced development of the population. Methods Literature analysis method was used to determine relevant indicators of evaluation effect. Exponential smoothing method was used to predict the value from2016 to 2017 according to relevant population indicator from 2005 to 2015. Compared predicted value and actual value data from 2016 to 2017 through"projection——implemented"comparative analysis. Based on that,it analyzed population effect after the implementation of"Universal Two-Child"policy. Results After the implementation of"universal two-child"policy,the overall situation in 2016 was much higher than expected. Population gross grew greatly( diversity factor was 18. 10%). Annual birth population and natural population growth rate also increased significantly( diversity factor was 4. 60% and 14. 90%). In 2017,there was little difference from the expectation. Total population increment was slightly reduced( diversity factor was-0. 06% difference). Annual birth population and natural population growth rate increased slightly( diversity factor was 0. 04% and 0. 05%). Conclusions The population effect after the implementation of "universal two-child"policy has been appeared,but fails to achieve expected goals. In order to further consolidate and strengthen the implementation effect of two-child policy,it is necessary to formulate corresponding supporting policies,strengthen the publicity of new policies,continue to publicize the concept of gender equality,and cultivate cultural atmosphere that encourage reproduction.
引文
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[7]王金营.中国计划生育政策的人口效果评估[J].中国人口科学,2006,(5):23-32.
[8]陈思艺.我国生育政策的评估分析及调整的探究[J].长沙民政职业技术学院学报,2016,23(1):13-16.
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[12]王永生,张志敏.地勘行业管理政策实施效果“投射—实施后”对比分析法评价[J].发展研究,2014,43(1):66-70.
[13]郝模.卫生政策学(第2版)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2013.
[14]穆光宗.“全面二孩”政策实施效果如何[J].人民论坛,2018,(14):46-47.
[15]瞿凌云.中国出生人口性别比失衡的影响因素及统计模拟[J].统计与决策,2012,(2):89-92.
[16]梁海艳,倪超.对中国出生人口性别比失衡问题的再认识[J].中国人力资源开发,2018,35(1):112-121.
[17]石人炳,陈宁,郑淇予.中国生育政策调整效果评估[J].中国人口科学,2018,(4):114-128.
[18]林永玲,梁瑞琼,等.全面二孩政策下广东省居民生育意愿调查[J].卫生软科学,2016,30(12):59-65.
[19]金佰明,祁艳波,陈金岩,等.齐齐哈尔市适龄人群二孩生育意愿及影响因素分析[J].卫生软科学,2018,32(7):70-73.
[20]陈宁.全面二孩政策实施对我国人口老龄化的影响研究[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2017,31(2):96-103.
[21]薛君.适度生育水平与生育政策调整[J].人口与社会,2018,34(3):72-80.
[2]姜赛,辛怡,王晶艳,等.天津市“全面二孩”政策下城市居民生育意愿的影响因素分析[J].中国初级卫生保健,2017,31(1):41-43.
[3]钟晓华.“全面二孩”政策实施效果的评价与优化策略——基于城市“双非”夫妇再生育意愿的调查[J].中国行政管理,2016,7(7):127-131.
[4]杨丽全,连雪冰,郑建盛,等.二胎孕妇妊娠压力及其影响因素分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(6):1000-1003.
[5]尹豪.人口学导论[M].北京:中国人口出版社,2006.
[6]顾美君,祁金祥,任积丽.全面二孩政策实施效果分析[J].管理观察,2017,(36):102-103.
[7]王金营.中国计划生育政策的人口效果评估[J].中国人口科学,2006,(5):23-32.
[8]陈思艺.我国生育政策的评估分析及调整的探究[J].长沙民政职业技术学院学报,2016,23(1):13-16.
[9]孙葵,尹文强,黄冬梅,等.分级诊疗制度下乡镇卫生院医疗服务承载力分析[J].中国卫生经济,2018,37(4):57-60.
[10]陈媛,胡原生,胡晓斌,等.甘肃省社会卫生支出预测研究[J].中国卫生统计,2017,34(6):943-946.
[11]张祎,朱家明.基于ARIMA和二次指数平滑模型的人口组合预测[J].牡丹江师范学院学报(自然科学版),2017,(1):9-12.
[12]王永生,张志敏.地勘行业管理政策实施效果“投射—实施后”对比分析法评价[J].发展研究,2014,43(1):66-70.
[13]郝模.卫生政策学(第2版)[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2013.
[14]穆光宗.“全面二孩”政策实施效果如何[J].人民论坛,2018,(14):46-47.
[15]瞿凌云.中国出生人口性别比失衡的影响因素及统计模拟[J].统计与决策,2012,(2):89-92.
[16]梁海艳,倪超.对中国出生人口性别比失衡问题的再认识[J].中国人力资源开发,2018,35(1):112-121.
[17]石人炳,陈宁,郑淇予.中国生育政策调整效果评估[J].中国人口科学,2018,(4):114-128.
[18]林永玲,梁瑞琼,等.全面二孩政策下广东省居民生育意愿调查[J].卫生软科学,2016,30(12):59-65.
[19]金佰明,祁艳波,陈金岩,等.齐齐哈尔市适龄人群二孩生育意愿及影响因素分析[J].卫生软科学,2018,32(7):70-73.
[20]陈宁.全面二孩政策实施对我国人口老龄化的影响研究[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2017,31(2):96-103.
[21]薛君.适度生育水平与生育政策调整[J].人口与社会,2018,34(3):72-80.