山东省“全面二孩”政策下学前教育及义务教育资源供求均衡分析
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摘要
利用人口预测模型预测了山东省2011—2050年的学前教育和义务教育阶段适龄人口的数量以及变化,在此基础上分析了"全面二孩"政策实施对山东省学前教育和义务教育需求的影响以及资源供求差异的变化情况。分析结果表明:山东省"全面二孩"政策实施导致的出生人口高峰将对未来学前教育和义务教育产生巨大需求,但山东省目前的基础教育资源远远不能满足这一需求。这一需求不仅是迫切的、巨大的,同时也是短暂的,山东省面临基础教育资源短期和长期均衡配置的两难选择。建立政府主导的基础教育资源管理体制;加快基础设施建设,增加资源供给;健全支撑保障体系,加强教师队伍建设;鼓励和吸引社会力量参与基础教育事业;建立省域统筹的基础教育资源共享机制等,以应对这一要求。
The population prediction model was used to predict the number and changes of the schoolage population in preschool and compulsory education in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2050.On this basis,the authors analyzed the changes in supply and demand of preschool education and compulsory education resources after the implementation of the"comprehensive two-child"policy in Shandong Province.The results of analysis indicate that the birth population peak caused by the implementation of the"twochild"policy will lead to a huge demand for future pre-school education and compulsory education,but the current basic education resources are far from meeting this demand;this demand is not only urgent and tremendous,but also short-lived.Shandong province faces the dilemma of allocating basic education resources effectively in the short and long term.The authors put forward the following strategies to cope with the demand:establishing agovernment-led system for managing basic educational resources,accelerating infrastructure development and increasing the supply of resources;improving the support system and strengthen the quality of teachers;encouraging and attracting social organizations to participate in basic education;establishing the basic education resource sharing mechanism under the unified management of the whole province.
The population prediction model was used to predict the number and changes of the schoolage population in preschool and compulsory education in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2050.On this basis,the authors analyzed the changes in supply and demand of preschool education and compulsory education resources after the implementation of the"comprehensive two-child"policy in Shandong Province.The results of analysis indicate that the birth population peak caused by the implementation of the"twochild"policy will lead to a huge demand for future pre-school education and compulsory education,but the current basic education resources are far from meeting this demand;this demand is not only urgent and tremendous,but also short-lived.Shandong province faces the dilemma of allocating basic education resources effectively in the short and long term.The authors put forward the following strategies to cope with the demand:establishing agovernment-led system for managing basic educational resources,accelerating infrastructure development and increasing the supply of resources;improving the support system and strengthen the quality of teachers;encouraging and attracting social organizations to participate in basic education;establishing the basic education resource sharing mechanism under the unified management of the whole province.
引文
[1]梁文艳,杜育红,刘金娟.人口变动与义务教育发展规划---基于“单独二孩”政策实施后义务教育适龄人口规模的预测[J].教育研究,2015(3):25-34.
[2]姚引妹,李芬,尹文耀.“单独二孩”政策下我国受教育人口变化趋势研究[J].教育研究,2015(3):35-46.
[3]李玲,杨顺光.“全面二孩”政策与义务教育战略规划---基于未来20年义务教育学龄人口的预测[J].教育研究,2016(7):22-31.
[4]杨顺光,李玲,张兵娟,等.“全面二孩”政策与学前教育资源配置---基于未来20年适龄人口的预测[J].学前教育研究,2016(8):3-13.
[5]洪秀敏,马群.“全面二孩”政策与北京市学前教育资源需求[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2017(1):22-33.
[6]黄新苹.“全面二孩”政策对学前教育影响研究[J].教育探索,2017(3):86-92.
[7]黄新苹.“全面二孩”政策下城乡基础教育资源优化配置与均衡发展研究---以河南省为例[J].教育探索,2018(3):18-23.
[8]李玲,黄宸,李汉东.“全面二孩”政策下城乡学前教育资源需求分析[J].教育研究,2018(4):40-50.
[9]赵林,吕晓,于伟,等.山东省基础教育资源配置时空演变特征与影响因素[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(6):43-49.
[10]李汉东,李流.中国2000年以来生育水平估计[J].中国人口科学,2012(5):75-83,112.
(1)孩次别总和生育率理论上不能大于1,但由于在特定时期特定人口群体存在集中或提前生育等现象,使得该指标统计结果会出现大于1的情况,因此,该指标仅仅是时期生育水平的近似。我们在山东省人口预测方案中设计的二孩次总和生育率大于1目的是反映“全面二孩”政策实施所产生的堆积出生效应。
[2]姚引妹,李芬,尹文耀.“单独二孩”政策下我国受教育人口变化趋势研究[J].教育研究,2015(3):35-46.
[3]李玲,杨顺光.“全面二孩”政策与义务教育战略规划---基于未来20年义务教育学龄人口的预测[J].教育研究,2016(7):22-31.
[4]杨顺光,李玲,张兵娟,等.“全面二孩”政策与学前教育资源配置---基于未来20年适龄人口的预测[J].学前教育研究,2016(8):3-13.
[5]洪秀敏,马群.“全面二孩”政策与北京市学前教育资源需求[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2017(1):22-33.
[6]黄新苹.“全面二孩”政策对学前教育影响研究[J].教育探索,2017(3):86-92.
[7]黄新苹.“全面二孩”政策下城乡基础教育资源优化配置与均衡发展研究---以河南省为例[J].教育探索,2018(3):18-23.
[8]李玲,黄宸,李汉东.“全面二孩”政策下城乡学前教育资源需求分析[J].教育研究,2018(4):40-50.
[9]赵林,吕晓,于伟,等.山东省基础教育资源配置时空演变特征与影响因素[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(6):43-49.
[10]李汉东,李流.中国2000年以来生育水平估计[J].中国人口科学,2012(5):75-83,112.
(1)孩次别总和生育率理论上不能大于1,但由于在特定时期特定人口群体存在集中或提前生育等现象,使得该指标统计结果会出现大于1的情况,因此,该指标仅仅是时期生育水平的近似。我们在山东省人口预测方案中设计的二孩次总和生育率大于1目的是反映“全面二孩”政策实施所产生的堆积出生效应。