生育政策对城镇居民消费结构影响分析——基于扩展AIDS模型分析
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摘要
20世纪70年代以来"独生子女"政策对城镇地区人口结构转变具有深远的影响,生育政策通过家庭子女数量、人口年龄结构和性别结构直接或间接影响城镇居民消费结构,研究生育政策对城镇居民消费结构的影响,对促进消费结构转型升级,培育经济新增长点具有重要意义。本文在AIDS模型中纳入了反映生育政策的主要指标变量:人口出生率、性别比、少儿抚养比及老年抚养比,从而形成扩展AIDS模型,并选择似不相关回归(SUR)进行方程的估计。结果表明,生育政策对城镇居民消费结构具有重要的影响,各核心解释变量对各类消费影响程度及显著性存在明显的差异。在此基础上提出如下建议:一是加强居民消费需求与产业结构调整之间的衔接,不断促进消费结构优化升级;二是着力规范和完善房地产市场平稳健康发展的长效机制,加强政府对房地产行业宏观调控力度,不断满足居民改善型住房消费需求;三是不断完善医疗和养老等社会保障体系,增强居民消费信心,并大力开发老年消费产业,不断拓展老年消费市场;四是逐渐完善金融机构风险防范机制,减少信贷消费对家庭消费的约束,逐步提高信用消费普及率。
Since the 1970s,the " one-child" policy has had a far-reaching impact on the transformation of population structure in urban areas.The fertility policy directly or indirectly affects the consumption structure of urban residents as the way of the number of children,the age structure of population and the gender structure.Studying the influence of fertility policy on the consumption structure of urban residents is of great significance in promoting the transformation and upgrading of consumption structure and fostering new economic growth points.An extended AIDS model isconstrcutedto include the main indicators such as birth rate,sex ratio,child dependency ratio and old dependency ratio are taken into account to influence the consumption structure of urban residents too.The method of SUR is used to estimate the equation.The results show that the fertility policy has an important impact on the consumption structure of urban residents,and there are obvious differences in the degree and significance of the impact of the core explanatory variables on various types of consumption.On this basis,it puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions:Strengthen the connection between residents′consumption demand and industrial restructuring,and constantly promote the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure;Focus on standardizing and improving the long-term mechanism of stable and healthy development of the real estate market,strengthen the government's macro-control of the real estate industry,and constantly meet the residents' improved housing consumption demand;Constantly improve the social security system,such as medical care and pension,and strengthen it.Gradually improve the risk prevention mechanism of financial institutions,reduce the constraints of credit consumption on household consumption,and gradually improve the popularity of credit consumption.
Since the 1970s,the " one-child" policy has had a far-reaching impact on the transformation of population structure in urban areas.The fertility policy directly or indirectly affects the consumption structure of urban residents as the way of the number of children,the age structure of population and the gender structure.Studying the influence of fertility policy on the consumption structure of urban residents is of great significance in promoting the transformation and upgrading of consumption structure and fostering new economic growth points.An extended AIDS model isconstrcutedto include the main indicators such as birth rate,sex ratio,child dependency ratio and old dependency ratio are taken into account to influence the consumption structure of urban residents too.The method of SUR is used to estimate the equation.The results show that the fertility policy has an important impact on the consumption structure of urban residents,and there are obvious differences in the degree and significance of the impact of the core explanatory variables on various types of consumption.On this basis,it puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions:Strengthen the connection between residents′consumption demand and industrial restructuring,and constantly promote the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure;Focus on standardizing and improving the long-term mechanism of stable and healthy development of the real estate market,strengthen the government's macro-control of the real estate industry,and constantly meet the residents' improved housing consumption demand;Constantly improve the social security system,such as medical care and pension,and strengthen it.Gradually improve the risk prevention mechanism of financial institutions,reduce the constraints of credit consumption on household consumption,and gradually improve the popularity of credit consumption.
引文
1.吕红平.加强人口发展战略研究保障现代化强国人口环境[J].人口与计划生育,2018(1):28-29.
2.杨慧.全面二孩政策下生育对城镇女性就业的影响机理研究[J].人口与经济,2017(4):108-118.
3.余玲铮.中国城镇家庭消费及不平等的动态演进:代际效应与年龄效应[J].中国人口科学,2015(6):69-79+127-128.
4.周晓蒙.经济状况、教育水平对城镇家庭生育意愿的影响[J].人口与经济,2018(5):31-40.
5.刘娜,卢玲花.生育对城镇体制内女性工资收入的影响[J].人口与经济,2018(5):10-19.
6.李汉东,王然,任昱洁.计划生育政策以来的独生子女数量及家庭结构分析[J].统计与决策,2018,34(13):99-104.
7.唐琦,夏庆杰,李实.中国城市居民家庭的消费结构分析:1995-2013[J].经济研究,2018,53(2):35-49.
8.于长永,刘二鹏,代志明.生育公平、人口质量与中国全面鼓励二孩政策[J].人口学刊,2017,39(3):5-20.
9.李超,倪鹏飞,万海远.中国住房需求持续高涨之谜:基于人口结构视角[J].经济研究,2015,50(5):118-133.
10.刘家强,唐代盛.“普遍两孩”生育政策的调整依据、政策效应和实施策略[J].人口研究,2015,39(6):3-12.
11.翟振武,李龙,陈佳鞠.全面两孩政策下的目标人群及新增出生人口估计[J].人口研究,2016,40(4):35-51.
12.Li H,Yi J,Zhang J.Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China:Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences[J].Demography,2011,48(4):1535-1557.
13.Wei S J,Zhang X.The Competitive Saving Motive:Concept,Evidence,and Implications[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2016(3):355-366.
14.Ebenstein,Avraham.The“Missing Girls”of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy[J].Journal of Human Resources,2010,45(1):87-115.
15.Jinlong Huang et al.Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China:From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J].Earth’s Future,2019,7(3):211-337.
(1)根据国家统计局统计口径,居民消费结构由以下八大类消费构成:食品消费、衣着消费、居住消费、家庭设备及用品消费、医疗保健消费、交通和通信消费、文教娱乐服务消费、其他消费。
2.杨慧.全面二孩政策下生育对城镇女性就业的影响机理研究[J].人口与经济,2017(4):108-118.
3.余玲铮.中国城镇家庭消费及不平等的动态演进:代际效应与年龄效应[J].中国人口科学,2015(6):69-79+127-128.
4.周晓蒙.经济状况、教育水平对城镇家庭生育意愿的影响[J].人口与经济,2018(5):31-40.
5.刘娜,卢玲花.生育对城镇体制内女性工资收入的影响[J].人口与经济,2018(5):10-19.
6.李汉东,王然,任昱洁.计划生育政策以来的独生子女数量及家庭结构分析[J].统计与决策,2018,34(13):99-104.
7.唐琦,夏庆杰,李实.中国城市居民家庭的消费结构分析:1995-2013[J].经济研究,2018,53(2):35-49.
8.于长永,刘二鹏,代志明.生育公平、人口质量与中国全面鼓励二孩政策[J].人口学刊,2017,39(3):5-20.
9.李超,倪鹏飞,万海远.中国住房需求持续高涨之谜:基于人口结构视角[J].经济研究,2015,50(5):118-133.
10.刘家强,唐代盛.“普遍两孩”生育政策的调整依据、政策效应和实施策略[J].人口研究,2015,39(6):3-12.
11.翟振武,李龙,陈佳鞠.全面两孩政策下的目标人群及新增出生人口估计[J].人口研究,2016,40(4):35-51.
12.Li H,Yi J,Zhang J.Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China:Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences[J].Demography,2011,48(4):1535-1557.
13.Wei S J,Zhang X.The Competitive Saving Motive:Concept,Evidence,and Implications[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2016(3):355-366.
14.Ebenstein,Avraham.The“Missing Girls”of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy[J].Journal of Human Resources,2010,45(1):87-115.
15.Jinlong Huang et al.Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China:From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J].Earth’s Future,2019,7(3):211-337.
(1)根据国家统计局统计口径,居民消费结构由以下八大类消费构成:食品消费、衣着消费、居住消费、家庭设备及用品消费、医疗保健消费、交通和通信消费、文教娱乐服务消费、其他消费。