全面二孩政策、人口老龄化与劳动力供给
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摘要
在全面二孩政策下设计了四种总和生育率方案,并通过育龄妇女生育模式的设计测算了我国未来总人口规模、劳动年龄人口规模以及老龄化规模。在此基础上,通过劳动参与率的假设预测了我国2018—2050年劳动力供给规模和结构的变化趋势。研究发现:总和生育率每提高0.1,劳动力供给数量相应增加1300万～1400万,但是四种总和生育率方案下我国未来劳动力供给都呈现下降的态势,这表明全面二孩政策的实施确实有助于改善我国劳动力供给规模,但是作用有限;随着总和生育率的提高,15～29岁年龄组劳动力供给结构占比得到了一定的缓解,30～34岁年龄组劳动力供给结构占比逐渐上升,35～64岁年龄组劳动力供给结构占比逐步下降,同时男性劳动力供给结构占比逐步下降。可见全面二孩政策能够改善劳动力供给结构。最后在结论的基础上提出了政策建议。
This paper designs four plans of the total fertility rate under the universal two-child policy and calculates the future total population scale, working-age population scale and aging population scale under the birth model design for women of childbearing age. Through the hypothesis of the labor participation rate this paper forecasts the trend of scale and structure of labor supply in China between 2018 and 2050. It is found that with every increase of 0.1 in the total fertility rate, the number of Chinese labor supply will increase by 13-14 million. But the future labor supply in China decreases under all four total fertility rate plans which indicates that the universal two-child policy can improve the scale of labor supply but with limited impacts. With the increase of the total fertility rate, the proportion of the 15-29 age group in labor supply structure has been alleviated while that of the 30-34 age group has gradually increased and that of the 35-64 age group has gradually decreased. In the meantime, the proportion of male labor in labor supply structure has gradually decreased which shows universal two-child policy can indeed improve the labor supply structure. The paper also offers policy suggestions based on conclusions.
This paper designs four plans of the total fertility rate under the universal two-child policy and calculates the future total population scale, working-age population scale and aging population scale under the birth model design for women of childbearing age. Through the hypothesis of the labor participation rate this paper forecasts the trend of scale and structure of labor supply in China between 2018 and 2050. It is found that with every increase of 0.1 in the total fertility rate, the number of Chinese labor supply will increase by 13-14 million. But the future labor supply in China decreases under all four total fertility rate plans which indicates that the universal two-child policy can improve the scale of labor supply but with limited impacts. With the increase of the total fertility rate, the proportion of the 15-29 age group in labor supply structure has been alleviated while that of the 30-34 age group has gradually increased and that of the 35-64 age group has gradually decreased. In the meantime, the proportion of male labor in labor supply structure has gradually decreased which shows universal two-child policy can indeed improve the labor supply structure. The paper also offers policy suggestions based on conclusions.
引文
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王立军,马文秀.2012.人口老龄化与中国劳动力供给变迁[J].中国人口科学(6):23-33,111.
张车伟,蔡翼飞.2016.中国“十三五”时期劳动供给和需求预测及缺口分析[J].人口研究(1):38-56.
张鹏飞,陶纪坤.2017.全面二孩政策对城镇职工基本养老保险收支的影响[J].人口与经济(1):104-115.
BIJAK J,KUPISZEWSKI K M.2008.Replacement migration revisited:Simulations of the effects of selected population and labor market strategies for the aging europe,2002-2052[J].Population Research and Policy Review,27(3):321-342.
BLOOM D E,CANNING D,GüNTHER F,et al.2009.Fertility,female labor force participation,and the demographic dividend[J].Journal of Economic Growth,14(2):79-101.
MAESTAS N,MULLEN K,POWELL D.2016.The effect of population aging on economic growth,the labor force and productivity[Z].Nber Working Papers.
VERE J P.2007.“Having it all” no longer:Fertility,female labor supply,and the new life choices of generation[J].Demography,44(4):821-828.
童玉芬.2014.人口老龄化过程中我国劳动力供给变化特点及面临的挑战[J].人口研究(2):52-60.
王欢,黄健元,王薇.2014.人口结构转变、产业及就业结构调整背景下劳动力供求关系分析[J].人口与经济(2):96-105.
王金营,蔺丽莉.2006.中国人口劳动参与率与未来劳动力供给分析[J].人口学刊(4):19-24.
王立军,马文秀.2012.人口老龄化与中国劳动力供给变迁[J].中国人口科学(6):23-33,111.
张车伟,蔡翼飞.2016.中国“十三五”时期劳动供给和需求预测及缺口分析[J].人口研究(1):38-56.
张鹏飞,陶纪坤.2017.全面二孩政策对城镇职工基本养老保险收支的影响[J].人口与经济(1):104-115.
BIJAK J,KUPISZEWSKI K M.2008.Replacement migration revisited:Simulations of the effects of selected population and labor market strategies for the aging europe,2002-2052[J].Population Research and Policy Review,27(3):321-342.
BLOOM D E,CANNING D,GüNTHER F,et al.2009.Fertility,female labor force participation,and the demographic dividend[J].Journal of Economic Growth,14(2):79-101.
MAESTAS N,MULLEN K,POWELL D.2016.The effect of population aging on economic growth,the labor force and productivity[Z].Nber Working Papers.
VERE J P.2007.“Having it all” no longer:Fertility,female labor supply,and the new life choices of generation[J].Demography,44(4):821-828.