收入差距、消费需求与经济增长——基于中国省域面板数据的研究
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摘要
收入差距对经济增长的影响历来是研究热点,文章在两者中间加入了"消费"这一环,研究了收入差距、消费不足对经济增长的影响。文章总结了现有研究有关收入差距对经济增长的影响的观点,并结合对我国近年来发展状况的观察,认为收入差距扩大引起的消费不足严重阻碍着经济增长的可持续性。利用我国31个省1978年以来的数据,通过FGLS模型和GMM模型分析发现,在各地收入差距对经济增长的影响都显著为负,当期消费的影响显著为负,但前期消费对经济增长存在着显著的正向影响。此外,收入差距和消费不足对经济的不利影响在不同地区表现为"东部<中部<西部";且经济增长对这种不利影响的缓解作用在不同地区也不同,表现为"东部>中部>西部"。总体来看,收入差距、消费不足对经济增长的阻碍在较为落后的中西部地区更为严重。
The influence of income inequality on economic growth has always been an important research area. In this paper,consumption is added to link income gap and growth. First,this paper summarized the existing research on the impact of income gap on growth. Second,combined with the observation of China's development in recent years,considers that the consumption shortage caused by the expansion of income gap seriously hinders the sustainability of economic growth. And then,This paper uses the data of China's 31 provinces from 1978-2016 to make empirical analysis. By using FGLS and GMM models,it is found that the impact of income gap on economic growth is significantly negative in all regions,while the impact of current consumption is significantly negative,but there is a significant positive impact of early consumption on economic growth. In addition,the adverse effects of income gap and insufficient consumption on the economy in different regions are"eastern < central < western". And the mitigation effect of economic growth is different between regions,which is "eastern > Central > western". Generally speaking,the income gap and insufficient consumption hinder economic growth more seriously in the central and western regions of China,which are more economically backward.
The influence of income inequality on economic growth has always been an important research area. In this paper,consumption is added to link income gap and growth. First,this paper summarized the existing research on the impact of income gap on growth. Second,combined with the observation of China's development in recent years,considers that the consumption shortage caused by the expansion of income gap seriously hinders the sustainability of economic growth. And then,This paper uses the data of China's 31 provinces from 1978-2016 to make empirical analysis. By using FGLS and GMM models,it is found that the impact of income gap on economic growth is significantly negative in all regions,while the impact of current consumption is significantly negative,but there is a significant positive impact of early consumption on economic growth. In addition,the adverse effects of income gap and insufficient consumption on the economy in different regions are"eastern < central < western". And the mitigation effect of economic growth is different between regions,which is "eastern > Central > western". Generally speaking,the income gap and insufficient consumption hinder economic growth more seriously in the central and western regions of China,which are more economically backward.
引文
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(2)Pasinetti,Luigi L,“Rate of profit and income distribution in relation to the rate of economic growth”,Review of E-conomic Studies,Vol.29,No.4,1962,p.267-279.
(3)Joseph E.Stiglitz,“Distribution of income and wealth among individuals”,Econometrica,Vol.37,No.3,1969,p.382-397.
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(5)Oded Galor,Daniel Tsiddon,“The distribution of human capital and economic growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.2,No.1,1997,p.93-124.
(6)Roland Bénabou,“Inequality and growth”,NBER Macroeconomics Annual,Vol.11,1996,p.11-74.
(7)Hongyi Li,Heng-fu Zou,“Income inequality is not harmful for growth:theory and evidence”,Review of Development Economics,Vol.2,No.3,1998,p.318-334.
(8)Oded Galor,Joseph Zeira,“Income distribution and macroeconomics”,Review of Economic Studies,Vol.60,No.1,1993,p.35-52.
(1)Philippe Aghion,Eve Caroli,Cecilia García-Pen珘alosa,“Inequality and economic growth:the perspective of the new growth theories”,Journal of Economic Literature,Vol.37,No.4,1999,p.1615-1660.
(2)Arthur Fishman,Avi Simhon,“The division of labor,inequality and growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.7,No.2,2002,p.117-136.
(3)Oded Galor,Omer Moav,Dietrich Vollrath,“Land inequality and the emergence of human capital promoting institutions”,Brown University:Working Paper,2006.
(4)David de la Croix,Matthias Doepke,“Inequality and growth:why differential fertility matters”,The American Economic Review,Vol.93,No.4,2003,p.1091-1113.
(5)沈凌、田国强:《贫富差别、城市化与经济增长---一个基于需求因素的经济学分析》,《经济研究》2009年第1期,第17-29页。
(6)Kevin M.Murphy,Andrei Shleifer,Robert Vishny,“Income distribution,market size,and industrialization”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.104,No.3,1989,p.537-564.
(7)Anna V.Yurko,“How does income inequality affect market outcomes in vertically differentiated markets?”,International Journal of Industrial Organization,Vol.29,No.4,2011,p.493-503.
(8)Alberto Alesina,Dani Rodrik,“Distributive politics and economic growth”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.109,No.2,1994,p.465-490.
(9)Perssopn Torsten,Tabellini Guido Enrico,“Is inequality harmful for growth”,The American Economic Review,Vol.84,No.3,1994,p.600-621.
(10)Jess Benhabib et al.,“Social conflict and growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.1,No.1,1996,p.125-142.
(1)Galor Oded,Moav Omer,“From physical to human capital accumulation:inequality and the process of development”,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.71,No.4,2004,p.1001-1026.
(2)Jorge A.Charles-Coll,“The optimal rate of inequality”,MPRA Paper,2010,No.28912.
(3)Robert J.Barro,“Inequality and growth in a panel of countries”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.5,No.1,2000,p.5-32.
(4)Mark W.Frank,“Income inequality and economic growth in the U.S.:a panel cointegration approach”,Working Papers,Sam Houston State University,2005.
(5)Nektarios Aslanidis,“Income inequality and growth:a regime-switching approach”,Dept Econ Working Papers,2004.
(1)Alberto Alesina,Dani Rodrik,Distributive Ppolitics and Economic Growth,p.465-490.Ibid.
(2)Perssopn Torsten,Tabellini Guido Enrico,Is Inequality Harmful for Growth,p.600-621.Ibid.
(3)Forbe Kristin J,“A reassessment of the relationship between inequality and growth”,The American Economic Review,Vol.90,No,4,2000,p.869-887.
(4)Partridge Mark,“Is inequality harmful for growth?Comment”,American Economic Review,Vol.87,No.5,1997,p.1019-1032.
(5)Ghosh S,Pal S,“The effect of inequality on growth:theory and evidence from the Indian states”,Review of Development Economics,Vol.8,No.1,2004,p.164-177.
(6)Ravallion Martin,“Does aggregation hide the harmful effects of inequality on growth?”,Economics Letters,Vol.61,No.1,2004,p.73-77.
(7)Benjamin Dwayne et al.,“The dynamics of inequality and growth in rural China:does higher inequality impede growth”,University of Toronto,2004.
(8)吕炜、储德银:《城乡居民收入差距与经济增长研究》,《经济学动态》2011年第12期,第30-36页。
(1)钞小静、任保平、惠康:《收入分配不平等、有效需求与经济增长---一个基于中国经济转型期的实证研究》,《当代经济科学》2009年第3期,第9-15页。
(2)周天勇:《消费需求不足型经济下行的成因及其治理的供给侧方案》,《宏观经济研究》2017第12期,第3-21页。
(1)王少平、欧阳志刚:《中国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应》,《中国社会科学》2008第2期,第54-66页。
(2)Pasinetti,Luigi L,“Rate of profit and income distribution in relation to the rate of economic growth”,Review of E-conomic Studies,Vol.29,No.4,1962,p.267-279.
(3)Joseph E.Stiglitz,“Distribution of income and wealth among individuals”,Econometrica,Vol.37,No.3,1969,p.382-397.
(4)Fran ois Bourguignon,“Pareto superiority of unegalitarian equilibria in Stiglitz’model of wealth distribution with convex saving function”,Econometrica,Vol.49,No.6,1981,p.1469-1475.
(5)Oded Galor,Daniel Tsiddon,“The distribution of human capital and economic growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.2,No.1,1997,p.93-124.
(6)Roland Bénabou,“Inequality and growth”,NBER Macroeconomics Annual,Vol.11,1996,p.11-74.
(7)Hongyi Li,Heng-fu Zou,“Income inequality is not harmful for growth:theory and evidence”,Review of Development Economics,Vol.2,No.3,1998,p.318-334.
(8)Oded Galor,Joseph Zeira,“Income distribution and macroeconomics”,Review of Economic Studies,Vol.60,No.1,1993,p.35-52.
(1)Philippe Aghion,Eve Caroli,Cecilia García-Pen珘alosa,“Inequality and economic growth:the perspective of the new growth theories”,Journal of Economic Literature,Vol.37,No.4,1999,p.1615-1660.
(2)Arthur Fishman,Avi Simhon,“The division of labor,inequality and growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.7,No.2,2002,p.117-136.
(3)Oded Galor,Omer Moav,Dietrich Vollrath,“Land inequality and the emergence of human capital promoting institutions”,Brown University:Working Paper,2006.
(4)David de la Croix,Matthias Doepke,“Inequality and growth:why differential fertility matters”,The American Economic Review,Vol.93,No.4,2003,p.1091-1113.
(5)沈凌、田国强:《贫富差别、城市化与经济增长---一个基于需求因素的经济学分析》,《经济研究》2009年第1期,第17-29页。
(6)Kevin M.Murphy,Andrei Shleifer,Robert Vishny,“Income distribution,market size,and industrialization”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.104,No.3,1989,p.537-564.
(7)Anna V.Yurko,“How does income inequality affect market outcomes in vertically differentiated markets?”,International Journal of Industrial Organization,Vol.29,No.4,2011,p.493-503.
(8)Alberto Alesina,Dani Rodrik,“Distributive politics and economic growth”,The Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.109,No.2,1994,p.465-490.
(9)Perssopn Torsten,Tabellini Guido Enrico,“Is inequality harmful for growth”,The American Economic Review,Vol.84,No.3,1994,p.600-621.
(10)Jess Benhabib et al.,“Social conflict and growth”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.1,No.1,1996,p.125-142.
(1)Galor Oded,Moav Omer,“From physical to human capital accumulation:inequality and the process of development”,The Review of Economic Studies,Vol.71,No.4,2004,p.1001-1026.
(2)Jorge A.Charles-Coll,“The optimal rate of inequality”,MPRA Paper,2010,No.28912.
(3)Robert J.Barro,“Inequality and growth in a panel of countries”,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.5,No.1,2000,p.5-32.
(4)Mark W.Frank,“Income inequality and economic growth in the U.S.:a panel cointegration approach”,Working Papers,Sam Houston State University,2005.
(5)Nektarios Aslanidis,“Income inequality and growth:a regime-switching approach”,Dept Econ Working Papers,2004.
(1)Alberto Alesina,Dani Rodrik,Distributive Ppolitics and Economic Growth,p.465-490.Ibid.
(2)Perssopn Torsten,Tabellini Guido Enrico,Is Inequality Harmful for Growth,p.600-621.Ibid.
(3)Forbe Kristin J,“A reassessment of the relationship between inequality and growth”,The American Economic Review,Vol.90,No,4,2000,p.869-887.
(4)Partridge Mark,“Is inequality harmful for growth?Comment”,American Economic Review,Vol.87,No.5,1997,p.1019-1032.
(5)Ghosh S,Pal S,“The effect of inequality on growth:theory and evidence from the Indian states”,Review of Development Economics,Vol.8,No.1,2004,p.164-177.
(6)Ravallion Martin,“Does aggregation hide the harmful effects of inequality on growth?”,Economics Letters,Vol.61,No.1,2004,p.73-77.
(7)Benjamin Dwayne et al.,“The dynamics of inequality and growth in rural China:does higher inequality impede growth”,University of Toronto,2004.
(8)吕炜、储德银:《城乡居民收入差距与经济增长研究》,《经济学动态》2011年第12期,第30-36页。
(1)钞小静、任保平、惠康:《收入分配不平等、有效需求与经济增长---一个基于中国经济转型期的实证研究》,《当代经济科学》2009年第3期,第9-15页。
(2)周天勇:《消费需求不足型经济下行的成因及其治理的供给侧方案》,《宏观经济研究》2017第12期,第3-21页。
(1)王少平、欧阳志刚:《中国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应》,《中国社会科学》2008第2期,第54-66页。