基于激励相容理论的韩国生育政策实践检视——兼论对中国的启示
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摘要
我国正处于生育配套政策的转型完善期,韩国的相关经验教训可以引为借鉴。韩国政府制定了涵盖税收优惠、现金补贴、生育产假、托育照料、就业支持、医疗保健等方面的鼓励政策,以求提升韩国的生育率。然而从目前的状况来看,这些生育配套政策远未达到韩国政府的预期目标。究其原因,一方面在于生育率具有下滑到一定程度后难以扭转的客观规律,另一方面则在于这些鼓励生育的配套政策激励与民众的政策需求并未有效相容。韩国生育政策"激励—相容"失灵的教训给予中国的启示是,积极促进经济社会政策与生育政策配套衔接,注重政策供给与政策需求之间的契合,构建一套以人民为中心的生育政策配套体系是解决当前中国人口困局的必由之路。
China's fertility policy is undergoing a major transformation, and it is necessary to analyze and learn the ineffectual lessons from South Korea's policy associated with birth support. To cope with the increasingly difficult situation of low fertility rate,the government of South Korea has formulated incentive policies covering tax incentives,cash subsidies,maternity leave,child care,employment support and medical care. However,these encouraging fertility policies is far from reaching governmental garget. The reasons can be displayed as follow: On the one hand,in the fact that the fertility rate has the objective law which cannot be reversed after falling to a certain degree. On the other hand,there is a certain disconnection between the supply of supporting policies to encourage fertility and the policy demand of the public. The inspiration from the failed experience of encouraging birth in South Korea to China is that the only way to solve China's population dilemma would be the promotion of convergence between socioeconomic development and birth strategy; the combination between the policy supply and the policy demand.Meanwhile,it is necessary to build a family planning policy system centered on the people.
China's fertility policy is undergoing a major transformation, and it is necessary to analyze and learn the ineffectual lessons from South Korea's policy associated with birth support. To cope with the increasingly difficult situation of low fertility rate,the government of South Korea has formulated incentive policies covering tax incentives,cash subsidies,maternity leave,child care,employment support and medical care. However,these encouraging fertility policies is far from reaching governmental garget. The reasons can be displayed as follow: On the one hand,in the fact that the fertility rate has the objective law which cannot be reversed after falling to a certain degree. On the other hand,there is a certain disconnection between the supply of supporting policies to encourage fertility and the policy demand of the public. The inspiration from the failed experience of encouraging birth in South Korea to China is that the only way to solve China's population dilemma would be the promotion of convergence between socioeconomic development and birth strategy; the combination between the policy supply and the policy demand.Meanwhile,it is necessary to build a family planning policy system centered on the people.
引文
[1]王广州,周玉娇,张楠.低生育陷阱:中国当前的低生育风险及未来人口形势判断[J].青年探索,2018(5):15-27.
[2]王军,贾晓菲.从国家计划到生育自主:中国人口政策的未来趋向[J].青年探索,2018(5):5-14.
[3]张兴月.鼓励按政策生育二孩的配套政策体系思考[J].西北人口,2018(5):76-81,89.
[4]阚唯,梁颖,李成福.国际鼓励生育政策实践对中国的启示[J].西北人口,2018(5):47-56.
[5]金敏子,金亨锡.韩国的超低生育水平及区域差异[J].中国人口科学,2014(2):44-54.
[6]SPENFLER J. The economist and the population question[J]. American Economic Review,1966,56:1-24.
[7]李树茁,王欢.家庭变迁、家庭政策演进与中国家庭政策构建[J].人口与经济,2016(6):1-9.
[8]FLECKENSTEIN T,LEE S. The politics of postindustrial social policy[J]. Comparative Political Studies,1966,47:601-630.
[9]冯立天,马瀛通,冷眸. 50年来中国生育政策演变之历史轨迹[J].人口与经济,1999(3):3-12.
[10]刘家强,唐代盛.“普遍两孩”生育政策的调整依据、政策效应和实施策略[J].人口研究,2015(6):3-12.
[11]宋健.中国普遍二孩生育的政策环境与政策目标[J].人口与经济,2016(4):121-126.
[12]VICKREY W. Utility,strategy,and social decision rules[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1960,74:507-535.
[13]MIRRLEES J. An exploration in the theory of optimum income taxation[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1971,38:175-208.
[14]PERSSON T,SVENSSON L. Why a stubborn conservative would run a deficit:policy with time-inconsistent preferences[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1989,104:325-345.
[15]NAEGELEN F,MOUGEOT M. Discriminatory public procurement policy and cost reduction incentives[J]. Journal of Public Economics,1998,67:349-367.
[16]吴小建,王家峰.政策执行的制度背景:规制嵌入于激励相容[J].学术界,2011(12):125-134.
[17]RNSEN M,SKREDE K. Nordic fertility patterns:compatible with gender equality?[M]//ELLINGSAETER A,LEIRA A.Politicising Parenthood in Scandinavia:Gender Relations in Welfare States. Bristol:The Policy Press,2006:53-76.
[18]吴帆.欧洲家庭政策与生育率变化[J].社会学研究,2016(1):49-72.
[19]MA L. Economic crisis and women’s labor force return after childbirth:evidence from South Korea[J]. Demographic Research,2014(18):511-552.
[20]乔晓春.从韩国取消生育政策看中国加快生育政策调整的必要性[J].东南大学学报,2015(4):21-27.
[21]ANDTAI-HWAN K. The national family planning program and fertility transition in South Korea[M]. MASON A. East-West Center Occasional Papers:Population and Health Series. Honolulu:East-West Center Press,2001:39-64.
[22]MCDONALD P. Very low fertility:consequences,causes and policy approaches[J]. The Japanese Journal of Population,2008(6):19-23.
[22]郭熙保,袁蓓.韩国计划生育政策演变及对我国的启示[N].光明日报,2015-04-29(16).
[23]MINJA-KIM C,KYUNG P. Fertility decline in South Korea:forty years of policy-behavior dialogue[J]. Korea Journal of Population Studies,2006(2):1-26.
[24]马莉,郑真真.韩国妇女的生育后再就业及其对中国的启示[J].劳动经济研究,2015(2):3-22.
[25]茅倬彦,申小菊,张闻雷.人口惯性和生育政策选择:国际比较及启示[J].南方人口,2018(2):15-28.
[26]LEE S,HYOJIN C. Low fertility and policy responses in Korea[J]. The Japanese Journal of Population,2009(1):57-72.
[27]袁蓓,郭熙保.韩国从计划生育到鼓励生育的政策演变与启示[J].东南学术,2015(3):161-170.
[28]张一琪.生娃是家事也是国事[N].人民日报,2018-08-06(06).
[29]白仙姬.韩国儿童保育津贴政策及争论[J].社会保障研究,2007(2):143-152.
(1)数据来源:王露露.韩国生育率创新低[EB/OL].[2018-09-05]. http://www. cankaoxiaoxi. com/world/20180905/2321230. shtml
(1)???.第三次低生育高龄社会基本计划(2016—2000)[EB/OL].[2018-08-12]. http://kiss. kstudy. com.libproxy. snu. ac. kr/thesis/thesis-view. asp? key=3443758
(2)亚洲经济中文网.韩国出台综合对策打造育儿幸福国家[EB/OL].[2018-07-10]. http://korea. people. com. cn/n1/2018/0710/c407864-30137919. html
(1)以2018年韩国保育补贴标准为例,幼儿园全托幼儿家庭每月获补助分别为87. 8万韩元(满0. 5周岁)、62. 6万韩元(满1. 5周岁)、48. 2万韩元(满2. 5周岁)。但在家育儿0—10个月婴儿家庭每月仅可获得20万韩元补助,满1岁15万韩元,2—6岁10万韩元。
(2)???、???.关于针对低生育高龄社会的儿童补贴制度的研究(韩国保健社会研究院研究报告书2017)[EB/OL].[2018-08-12]. https://www. kihasa. re. kr/web/publication/research/view. do? menuId=44&tid=71&bid=12&division=001&keyField=writer&searchStat=2017&key=%EA%B3%A0%EC%A0%9C%EC%9D%B4&ano=2268
(3)女性家庭部. 2018年儿童保育服务支援业务向导[EB/OL].[2018-08-12]. www. mogef. go. kr(文档登录号:11-1383000-000229-10)。
(1)???,???,???.职业经历中断女性就业援助服务传达体系改编方向:以预防职业中断为中心(韩国女性政策研究院)[EB/OL].[2018-08-12].http://scholar.dkyobobook.co.kr.libproxy.snu.ac.kr/searchDetail.laf?barcode=4010025844240
(2)统计模型中还加入其他控制变量:夫妻年龄段、妻子的工作单位、丈夫的工作和教育的信息、家庭主观地位和以及关于婚姻的态度等。篇幅限制,表2中只将与鼓励生育政策最为相关的代表性变量列出,如需其他变量结果,可与作者联系。
(1)???,???,???.低生育对策的效果评价(韩国保健社会研究院研究报告书2016)[EB/OL].[2018-08-12].https://www.kihasa.re.kr/web/publication/research/view.do?menuId=44&tid=71&bid=12&division=001&keyField=writer&searchStat=2017&key=%EC%9D%B4%EC%83%81%ED%98%91&ano=2161
(1)???.低生育高龄化政策的现状和评价[EB/OL].[2018-08-12].http://kiss.kstudy.com.libproxy.snu.ac.kr/thesis/thesis-view.asp?key=3540327
(1)韩国保育政策引发诸多争论:如生育补贴是一种针对低收入困难群众的托底救助,还是全民共享的普惠政策?是应该只提供给就业母亲,还是所有家庭都可以受惠?对机构托育和家庭养育是否应该有差别化对待?针对儿童的津贴补助与支持国办设施建设,哪种方式更有政策效果?等等。
(2)如中国的江苏、浙江等省份面积与韩国相当,这些省份的人口数量却多于韩国人口总数。2017年江苏和浙江的人口数量分别为8029万和5657万,多于韩国的5142万。
[2]王军,贾晓菲.从国家计划到生育自主:中国人口政策的未来趋向[J].青年探索,2018(5):5-14.
[3]张兴月.鼓励按政策生育二孩的配套政策体系思考[J].西北人口,2018(5):76-81,89.
[4]阚唯,梁颖,李成福.国际鼓励生育政策实践对中国的启示[J].西北人口,2018(5):47-56.
[5]金敏子,金亨锡.韩国的超低生育水平及区域差异[J].中国人口科学,2014(2):44-54.
[6]SPENFLER J. The economist and the population question[J]. American Economic Review,1966,56:1-24.
[7]李树茁,王欢.家庭变迁、家庭政策演进与中国家庭政策构建[J].人口与经济,2016(6):1-9.
[8]FLECKENSTEIN T,LEE S. The politics of postindustrial social policy[J]. Comparative Political Studies,1966,47:601-630.
[9]冯立天,马瀛通,冷眸. 50年来中国生育政策演变之历史轨迹[J].人口与经济,1999(3):3-12.
[10]刘家强,唐代盛.“普遍两孩”生育政策的调整依据、政策效应和实施策略[J].人口研究,2015(6):3-12.
[11]宋健.中国普遍二孩生育的政策环境与政策目标[J].人口与经济,2016(4):121-126.
[12]VICKREY W. Utility,strategy,and social decision rules[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1960,74:507-535.
[13]MIRRLEES J. An exploration in the theory of optimum income taxation[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1971,38:175-208.
[14]PERSSON T,SVENSSON L. Why a stubborn conservative would run a deficit:policy with time-inconsistent preferences[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1989,104:325-345.
[15]NAEGELEN F,MOUGEOT M. Discriminatory public procurement policy and cost reduction incentives[J]. Journal of Public Economics,1998,67:349-367.
[16]吴小建,王家峰.政策执行的制度背景:规制嵌入于激励相容[J].学术界,2011(12):125-134.
[17]RNSEN M,SKREDE K. Nordic fertility patterns:compatible with gender equality?[M]//ELLINGSAETER A,LEIRA A.Politicising Parenthood in Scandinavia:Gender Relations in Welfare States. Bristol:The Policy Press,2006:53-76.
[18]吴帆.欧洲家庭政策与生育率变化[J].社会学研究,2016(1):49-72.
[19]MA L. Economic crisis and women’s labor force return after childbirth:evidence from South Korea[J]. Demographic Research,2014(18):511-552.
[20]乔晓春.从韩国取消生育政策看中国加快生育政策调整的必要性[J].东南大学学报,2015(4):21-27.
[21]ANDTAI-HWAN K. The national family planning program and fertility transition in South Korea[M]. MASON A. East-West Center Occasional Papers:Population and Health Series. Honolulu:East-West Center Press,2001:39-64.
[22]MCDONALD P. Very low fertility:consequences,causes and policy approaches[J]. The Japanese Journal of Population,2008(6):19-23.
[22]郭熙保,袁蓓.韩国计划生育政策演变及对我国的启示[N].光明日报,2015-04-29(16).
[23]MINJA-KIM C,KYUNG P. Fertility decline in South Korea:forty years of policy-behavior dialogue[J]. Korea Journal of Population Studies,2006(2):1-26.
[24]马莉,郑真真.韩国妇女的生育后再就业及其对中国的启示[J].劳动经济研究,2015(2):3-22.
[25]茅倬彦,申小菊,张闻雷.人口惯性和生育政策选择:国际比较及启示[J].南方人口,2018(2):15-28.
[26]LEE S,HYOJIN C. Low fertility and policy responses in Korea[J]. The Japanese Journal of Population,2009(1):57-72.
[27]袁蓓,郭熙保.韩国从计划生育到鼓励生育的政策演变与启示[J].东南学术,2015(3):161-170.
[28]张一琪.生娃是家事也是国事[N].人民日报,2018-08-06(06).
[29]白仙姬.韩国儿童保育津贴政策及争论[J].社会保障研究,2007(2):143-152.
(1)数据来源:王露露.韩国生育率创新低[EB/OL].[2018-09-05]. http://www. cankaoxiaoxi. com/world/20180905/2321230. shtml
(1)???.第三次低生育高龄社会基本计划(2016—2000)[EB/OL].[2018-08-12]. http://kiss. kstudy. com.libproxy. snu. ac. kr/thesis/thesis-view. asp? key=3443758
(2)亚洲经济中文网.韩国出台综合对策打造育儿幸福国家[EB/OL].[2018-07-10]. http://korea. people. com. cn/n1/2018/0710/c407864-30137919. html
(1)以2018年韩国保育补贴标准为例,幼儿园全托幼儿家庭每月获补助分别为87. 8万韩元(满0. 5周岁)、62. 6万韩元(满1. 5周岁)、48. 2万韩元(满2. 5周岁)。但在家育儿0—10个月婴儿家庭每月仅可获得20万韩元补助,满1岁15万韩元,2—6岁10万韩元。
(2)???、???.关于针对低生育高龄社会的儿童补贴制度的研究(韩国保健社会研究院研究报告书2017)[EB/OL].[2018-08-12]. https://www. kihasa. re. kr/web/publication/research/view. do? menuId=44&tid=71&bid=12&division=001&keyField=writer&searchStat=2017&key=%EA%B3%A0%EC%A0%9C%EC%9D%B4&ano=2268
(3)女性家庭部. 2018年儿童保育服务支援业务向导[EB/OL].[2018-08-12]. www. mogef. go. kr(文档登录号:11-1383000-000229-10)。
(1)???,???,???.职业经历中断女性就业援助服务传达体系改编方向:以预防职业中断为中心(韩国女性政策研究院)[EB/OL].[2018-08-12].http://scholar.dkyobobook.co.kr.libproxy.snu.ac.kr/searchDetail.laf?barcode=4010025844240
(2)统计模型中还加入其他控制变量:夫妻年龄段、妻子的工作单位、丈夫的工作和教育的信息、家庭主观地位和以及关于婚姻的态度等。篇幅限制,表2中只将与鼓励生育政策最为相关的代表性变量列出,如需其他变量结果,可与作者联系。
(1)???,???,???.低生育对策的效果评价(韩国保健社会研究院研究报告书2016)[EB/OL].[2018-08-12].https://www.kihasa.re.kr/web/publication/research/view.do?menuId=44&tid=71&bid=12&division=001&keyField=writer&searchStat=2017&key=%EC%9D%B4%EC%83%81%ED%98%91&ano=2161
(1)???.低生育高龄化政策的现状和评价[EB/OL].[2018-08-12].http://kiss.kstudy.com.libproxy.snu.ac.kr/thesis/thesis-view.asp?key=3540327
(1)韩国保育政策引发诸多争论:如生育补贴是一种针对低收入困难群众的托底救助,还是全民共享的普惠政策?是应该只提供给就业母亲,还是所有家庭都可以受惠?对机构托育和家庭养育是否应该有差别化对待?针对儿童的津贴补助与支持国办设施建设,哪种方式更有政策效果?等等。
(2)如中国的江苏、浙江等省份面积与韩国相当,这些省份的人口数量却多于韩国人口总数。2017年江苏和浙江的人口数量分别为8029万和5657万,多于韩国的5142万。