互联网促进旅游产业动态优化了吗?
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摘要
经济新常态下,互联网成为我国经济转型和产业结构升级的新引擎,不仅深刻地改变了旅游者行为,而且提升了旅游产业满足旅游者需求的动态优化能力。本文实证分析了互联网对旅游产业动态优化的作用,检验了互联网对不同类型旅游企业的影响。研究结果表明:互联网对旅游产业总体发展及动态优化具有显著的影响,说明互联网扩展和创新了旅游产业的内容,推动了旅游产业动态优化。对不同旅游企业来说,互联网对旅行社的影响效应明显高于星级酒店和旅游景区(点)。固定电话等传统通信工具对旅游产业动态优化的作用不够显著,对旅游企业普遍具有显著的负面影响,这也从另一个角度证明了互联网对旅游产业动态优化的作用。在考虑内生性机制的情况下,本文进一步的检验结果表明计量结果具有较强的稳健性。在此基础上,本文从政府和旅游企业等不同层面提出了推动旅游产业动态优化的对策建议。
Dynamic evolution and optimization is one of the most important areas of research in industrial economics.However,research into the dynamic evolution and optimization of the tourism industry has not attracted sufficient attention,especially in terms of empirical testing.Related research is mostly confined to the traditional industrial economics point of view,ignoring the particularity of the tourism industry itself.Such research cannot reflect the demand orientation of tourists(especially in the Internet environment),and there is a disjunction with the current state of development of the tourism industry.In particular,in the context of the rapid spread of the Internet,research on its dynamic optimization for the tourism industry lacks systematic empirical testing.Industrial dynamics are the result of the interaction of different industrial sectors at the micro-mechanism level,and the term essentially refers to the emergence of macro phenomena from micro-mechanisms.Dynamic optimization is one of the most important aspects of the supply-side reform of the tourism industry,and an important form of its innovative development.The dynamic optimization of the tourism industry not only demonstrates the industry's transformation and change of structure in different condition,but also shows the tourism industry's ability to effectively meet the dynamic needs of tourists.The Internet,and its wide application in the tourism industry,have enhanced the industry's dynamic optimization ability,and enabled it to effectively meet the needs of tourists.By examining the development of the tourism industry,this paper defines and analyzes the dynamic optimization process of the tourism industry,as centered on tourists who use the Internet.Based on changes in tourists' roles under the framework of the Internet,and the specific circumstances of the tourism industry's development,this paper uses provincial panel data from 2004-2017 to test the influence of the Internet on the tourism industry's dynamic optimization,in order to capture the Internet's contribution to dynamic optimization of the industry more accurately.The impact of the Internet on different types of tourism companies is also examined.The econometric test results show that the Internet has a consistent effect on the overall development and dynamic optimization of the tourism industry.Results show that the Internet causes the tourism industry to continuously innovate around the needs of tourists,expands the content and boundaries of the tourism industry,and realizes the dynamic optimization of the tourism industry.Moreover,among different types of tourism enterprise,the impact of the Internet on travel agencies is significantly higher than on star-rated hotels and tourist attractions.Traditional modes of communication such as fixed telephones are not significant for the dynamic optimization of the industry,and this further emphasizes the Internet's role in its dynamic optimization.This study conducts further tests addressing the endogeneity of tourism development,to show that the Internet's contribution to dynamic optimization of the tourism industry has decreased,but is still relatively meaningful,indicating that the econometric test results in this paper have strong robustness.Based on an in-depth analysis of the econometric results,this paper puts forth some corresponding policy suggestions.First,a new philosophy of integrated tourism development should be established,promoting the deep integration of the tourism industry and the Internet,enabling the needs of tourists to be met more effectively.Second,the Internet and related platforms should be actively used to improve the efficiency of matching between resource supply and demand as a whole,creating new avenues for the development of the tourism industry.Third,with the aim of meeting the diverse needs of tourists,smart tourism service platforms should be built,such as tourist flow analysis and decision support systems,providing personalized information services to tourists.Fourth,tourism enterprises should make use of Internet technology,innovating their business models and achieving sustainable and rapid development of the tourism industry.
Dynamic evolution and optimization is one of the most important areas of research in industrial economics.However,research into the dynamic evolution and optimization of the tourism industry has not attracted sufficient attention,especially in terms of empirical testing.Related research is mostly confined to the traditional industrial economics point of view,ignoring the particularity of the tourism industry itself.Such research cannot reflect the demand orientation of tourists(especially in the Internet environment),and there is a disjunction with the current state of development of the tourism industry.In particular,in the context of the rapid spread of the Internet,research on its dynamic optimization for the tourism industry lacks systematic empirical testing.Industrial dynamics are the result of the interaction of different industrial sectors at the micro-mechanism level,and the term essentially refers to the emergence of macro phenomena from micro-mechanisms.Dynamic optimization is one of the most important aspects of the supply-side reform of the tourism industry,and an important form of its innovative development.The dynamic optimization of the tourism industry not only demonstrates the industry's transformation and change of structure in different condition,but also shows the tourism industry's ability to effectively meet the dynamic needs of tourists.The Internet,and its wide application in the tourism industry,have enhanced the industry's dynamic optimization ability,and enabled it to effectively meet the needs of tourists.By examining the development of the tourism industry,this paper defines and analyzes the dynamic optimization process of the tourism industry,as centered on tourists who use the Internet.Based on changes in tourists' roles under the framework of the Internet,and the specific circumstances of the tourism industry's development,this paper uses provincial panel data from 2004-2017 to test the influence of the Internet on the tourism industry's dynamic optimization,in order to capture the Internet's contribution to dynamic optimization of the industry more accurately.The impact of the Internet on different types of tourism companies is also examined.The econometric test results show that the Internet has a consistent effect on the overall development and dynamic optimization of the tourism industry.Results show that the Internet causes the tourism industry to continuously innovate around the needs of tourists,expands the content and boundaries of the tourism industry,and realizes the dynamic optimization of the tourism industry.Moreover,among different types of tourism enterprise,the impact of the Internet on travel agencies is significantly higher than on star-rated hotels and tourist attractions.Traditional modes of communication such as fixed telephones are not significant for the dynamic optimization of the industry,and this further emphasizes the Internet's role in its dynamic optimization.This study conducts further tests addressing the endogeneity of tourism development,to show that the Internet's contribution to dynamic optimization of the tourism industry has decreased,but is still relatively meaningful,indicating that the econometric test results in this paper have strong robustness.Based on an in-depth analysis of the econometric results,this paper puts forth some corresponding policy suggestions.First,a new philosophy of integrated tourism development should be established,promoting the deep integration of the tourism industry and the Internet,enabling the needs of tourists to be met more effectively.Second,the Internet and related platforms should be actively used to improve the efficiency of matching between resource supply and demand as a whole,creating new avenues for the development of the tourism industry.Third,with the aim of meeting the diverse needs of tourists,smart tourism service platforms should be built,such as tourist flow analysis and decision support systems,providing personalized information services to tourists.Fourth,tourism enterprises should make use of Internet technology,innovating their business models and achieving sustainable and rapid development of the tourism industry.
引文
[1]弗朗哥·马雷尔巴,李宏生,乔晓楠,刘大勇.创新与产业动态变化及演化:研究进展与挑战[J].北京:经济社会体制比较,2011,(2):61-68.
[2]任晓红,张宗益.产业动态理论研究新进展[J].北京:管理评论,2010,(2):79-85.
[3]Bergin,J.,and B.Dan.Industry Dynamics with Stochastic Demand[J].Rand Journal of Economics,2010,39,(1):41-68.
[4]Bresnahan,T.F.,and S.Greenstein.The Economic Contribution of Information Technology:Towards Comparative and User Studies[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2001,11,(1):95-118.
[5]李君轶,张柳,孙九林,杨敏.旅游信息科学:一个研究框架[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(6):72-79.
[6]中国互联网络信息中心.第43次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告[R].北京:中国互联网络信息中心,2019.
[7]刘刚,熊立峰.消费者需求动态响应、企业边界选择与商业生态系统构建:基于苹果公司的案例研究[J].北京:中国工业经济,2013,(5):122-134.
[8]范继刚,王兆峰,杨卫书.四川省旅游产业与信息产业耦合协调研究[J].成都:资源开发与市场,2014,(1):110-113.
[9]Zaidan E.Analysis of ICT Usage Patterns,Benefits and Barriers in Tourism SMEs in the Middle Eastern Countries:The Case of Dubai in UAE[J].Journal of Vacation Marketing,2017,23,(3):248-263.
[10]Buhalis,D.Marketing the Competitive Destination of the Future[J].Tourism Management,2000,21,(1):97-116.
[11]何建民.我国旅游产业融合发展的形式、动因、路径、障碍及机制[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(4):8-9.
[12]李恒,全华.基于大数据平台的旅游虚拟产业集群研究[J].北京:经济管理,2018,(12):21-38.
[13]张颖.广东万绿湖生态旅游集聚区旅游新业态发展研究[J].长沙:中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版),2014,(4):24-27.
[14]张祖群,林姗.首都城乡建设的文化品位与中国特色社会主义先进文化之都建设:基于北京乡村旅游八种新业态的分析[J].北京:中国软科学,2011,(S2):143-149.
[15]罗明义.旅游经济分析:理论·方法·案例[M].昆明:云南大学出版社,2001.
[16]郭为,陈枝,王丽.旅游投诉、游客评价与服务质量的改进[J].桂林:旅游论坛,2009,(6):812-818.
[17]朱湖英,许春晓.不同收入城市居民文化旅游需求差异研究:以长沙市不同收入居民对凤凰古城的旅游需求为例[J].北京:北京第二外国语学院学报,2006,(1):38-41.
[18]黄燕玲,黄震方.城市居民休闲度假旅游需求实证研究:以南京为例[J].西安:人文地理,2007,(3):60-64.
[19]王信章.也谈我国旅游企业的发展方向[J].北京:旅游学刊,2018,(2):6-8.
[20]Adriana,B.Environmental Supply Chain Management in Tourism:The Case of Large Tour Operators[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17,(16):1385-1392.
[21]李建州,张运来,李惠璠.移动互联网在旅游业中的应用研究[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(10):89-94.
[22]H Stauss,B.,K.Heinonen,T.Strandvik,and K.Mickelsson,et al.A Customer-Dominant Logic of Service[J].Journal of Service Management,2013,21,(4):531-548.
[23]吕兴洋,徐虹,殷敏.基于渠道权力理论的旅游供应链企业关系博弈分析[J].北京:旅游学刊,2010,(12):23-27.
[24]袁尧清,任佩瑜.产业融合域的旅游产业结构升级机制与路径[J].济南:山东社会科学,2016,(1):119-123.
[25]张凌云.旅游产业融合的基础和前提[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(4):6-7.
[26]郭为,秦宇,黄卫东,余琴.旅游产业融合、新业态与非正规就业增长:一个基于经验与概念模型的实证分析[J].北京:旅游学刊,2017,(6):14-27.
[27]李树民.旅游产业融合与旅游产业协整发展[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(6):5-6.
[28]Hacklin,F.,C.Marxt,and F.Fahrni.Coevolutionary Cycles of Convergence:An Extrapolation from the ICT Industry[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2009,76,(6):723-736.
[29]张建忠,孙根年.遗址公园:文化遗产体验旅游开发的新业态——以西安三大遗址公园为例[J].西安:人文地理,2012,(1):142-146.
[30]郑四渭,方芳.虚拟集群式旅游供应链模型构建研究[J].北京:旅游学刊,2014,(2):46-54.
[31]中国旅游研究院.2012中国旅游业发展报告[R].北京:中国旅游出版社,2012.
[32]沈晶歆.移动互联网关键技术及典型业务产品研究[J].北京:电信科学,2010,(10):5-12.
[33]中国互联网络信息中心.第39次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告[R].北京:中国互联网络信息中心,2017.
[34]Démurger,S.Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth:An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29,(1):95-117.
[35]Ding,L.,K.E.Haynes,and Y.Liu.Telecommunications Infrastructure and Regional Income Convergence in China:Panel Data Approaches[J].Annals of Regional Science,2008,42,(4):843-861.
[36]Hipp,C.,B.S.Tether,and I.Miles.The Incidence and Effects of Innovation in Services:Evidence from Germany[J].International Journal of Innovation Management,2000,4,(4):417-453.
[37]严伟.产业链协同视角下旅游产业融合模式及机理分析[J].杭州:商业经济研究,2016,(10):194-197.
[38]Wang,D.,Z.Xiang,and D.R.Fesenmaier.Adapting to the Mobile World:A Model of Smartphone Use[J].Annals of Tourism Research,2014,(48):11-26.
[39]张朝枝,游旺.互联网对旅游目的地分销渠道影响:黄山案例研究[J].北京:旅游学刊,2012,(3):52-59.
[40]Berne,C.,M.Garciagonzalez,and J.Mugica.How ICT Shifts the Power Balance of Tourism Distribution Channels[J].Tourism Management,2017,33,(1):205-214.
[41]?zturan,M.,and S.A.Roney.Internet Use among Travel Agencies in Turkey:An Exploratory Study[J].Tourism Management,2004,25,(2):259-266.
[42]Buhalis,D.,and M.C.Licata.The Future Tourism Intermediaries[J].Tourism Management,2002,23,(3):207-220.
[43]冯郑凭.互联网对我国旅游分销渠道的影响研究:从旅游业者视野的角度分析[J].北京:北京第二外国语学院学报,2010,(3):45-50.
[44]张超,刘昊.信息技术对中美旅行社业的影响比较研究[J].桂林:桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,2001,(4):58-62.
[45]Vermeulen,I.E.,and D.Seegers.Tried and Tested:The Impact of Online Hotel Reviews on Consumer Consideration[J].Tourism Management,2009,30,(1):123-127.
[46]Bond,S.R.Dynamic Panel Data Models:A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice[J].Portuguese Economic Journal,2002,1,(2):141-162.
[2]任晓红,张宗益.产业动态理论研究新进展[J].北京:管理评论,2010,(2):79-85.
[3]Bergin,J.,and B.Dan.Industry Dynamics with Stochastic Demand[J].Rand Journal of Economics,2010,39,(1):41-68.
[4]Bresnahan,T.F.,and S.Greenstein.The Economic Contribution of Information Technology:Towards Comparative and User Studies[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2001,11,(1):95-118.
[5]李君轶,张柳,孙九林,杨敏.旅游信息科学:一个研究框架[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(6):72-79.
[6]中国互联网络信息中心.第43次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告[R].北京:中国互联网络信息中心,2019.
[7]刘刚,熊立峰.消费者需求动态响应、企业边界选择与商业生态系统构建:基于苹果公司的案例研究[J].北京:中国工业经济,2013,(5):122-134.
[8]范继刚,王兆峰,杨卫书.四川省旅游产业与信息产业耦合协调研究[J].成都:资源开发与市场,2014,(1):110-113.
[9]Zaidan E.Analysis of ICT Usage Patterns,Benefits and Barriers in Tourism SMEs in the Middle Eastern Countries:The Case of Dubai in UAE[J].Journal of Vacation Marketing,2017,23,(3):248-263.
[10]Buhalis,D.Marketing the Competitive Destination of the Future[J].Tourism Management,2000,21,(1):97-116.
[11]何建民.我国旅游产业融合发展的形式、动因、路径、障碍及机制[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(4):8-9.
[12]李恒,全华.基于大数据平台的旅游虚拟产业集群研究[J].北京:经济管理,2018,(12):21-38.
[13]张颖.广东万绿湖生态旅游集聚区旅游新业态发展研究[J].长沙:中南林业科技大学学报(社会科学版),2014,(4):24-27.
[14]张祖群,林姗.首都城乡建设的文化品位与中国特色社会主义先进文化之都建设:基于北京乡村旅游八种新业态的分析[J].北京:中国软科学,2011,(S2):143-149.
[15]罗明义.旅游经济分析:理论·方法·案例[M].昆明:云南大学出版社,2001.
[16]郭为,陈枝,王丽.旅游投诉、游客评价与服务质量的改进[J].桂林:旅游论坛,2009,(6):812-818.
[17]朱湖英,许春晓.不同收入城市居民文化旅游需求差异研究:以长沙市不同收入居民对凤凰古城的旅游需求为例[J].北京:北京第二外国语学院学报,2006,(1):38-41.
[18]黄燕玲,黄震方.城市居民休闲度假旅游需求实证研究:以南京为例[J].西安:人文地理,2007,(3):60-64.
[19]王信章.也谈我国旅游企业的发展方向[J].北京:旅游学刊,2018,(2):6-8.
[20]Adriana,B.Environmental Supply Chain Management in Tourism:The Case of Large Tour Operators[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,17,(16):1385-1392.
[21]李建州,张运来,李惠璠.移动互联网在旅游业中的应用研究[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(10):89-94.
[22]H Stauss,B.,K.Heinonen,T.Strandvik,and K.Mickelsson,et al.A Customer-Dominant Logic of Service[J].Journal of Service Management,2013,21,(4):531-548.
[23]吕兴洋,徐虹,殷敏.基于渠道权力理论的旅游供应链企业关系博弈分析[J].北京:旅游学刊,2010,(12):23-27.
[24]袁尧清,任佩瑜.产业融合域的旅游产业结构升级机制与路径[J].济南:山东社会科学,2016,(1):119-123.
[25]张凌云.旅游产业融合的基础和前提[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(4):6-7.
[26]郭为,秦宇,黄卫东,余琴.旅游产业融合、新业态与非正规就业增长:一个基于经验与概念模型的实证分析[J].北京:旅游学刊,2017,(6):14-27.
[27]李树民.旅游产业融合与旅游产业协整发展[J].北京:旅游学刊,2011,(6):5-6.
[28]Hacklin,F.,C.Marxt,and F.Fahrni.Coevolutionary Cycles of Convergence:An Extrapolation from the ICT Industry[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2009,76,(6):723-736.
[29]张建忠,孙根年.遗址公园:文化遗产体验旅游开发的新业态——以西安三大遗址公园为例[J].西安:人文地理,2012,(1):142-146.
[30]郑四渭,方芳.虚拟集群式旅游供应链模型构建研究[J].北京:旅游学刊,2014,(2):46-54.
[31]中国旅游研究院.2012中国旅游业发展报告[R].北京:中国旅游出版社,2012.
[32]沈晶歆.移动互联网关键技术及典型业务产品研究[J].北京:电信科学,2010,(10):5-12.
[33]中国互联网络信息中心.第39次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告[R].北京:中国互联网络信息中心,2017.
[34]Démurger,S.Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth:An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29,(1):95-117.
[35]Ding,L.,K.E.Haynes,and Y.Liu.Telecommunications Infrastructure and Regional Income Convergence in China:Panel Data Approaches[J].Annals of Regional Science,2008,42,(4):843-861.
[36]Hipp,C.,B.S.Tether,and I.Miles.The Incidence and Effects of Innovation in Services:Evidence from Germany[J].International Journal of Innovation Management,2000,4,(4):417-453.
[37]严伟.产业链协同视角下旅游产业融合模式及机理分析[J].杭州:商业经济研究,2016,(10):194-197.
[38]Wang,D.,Z.Xiang,and D.R.Fesenmaier.Adapting to the Mobile World:A Model of Smartphone Use[J].Annals of Tourism Research,2014,(48):11-26.
[39]张朝枝,游旺.互联网对旅游目的地分销渠道影响:黄山案例研究[J].北京:旅游学刊,2012,(3):52-59.
[40]Berne,C.,M.Garciagonzalez,and J.Mugica.How ICT Shifts the Power Balance of Tourism Distribution Channels[J].Tourism Management,2017,33,(1):205-214.
[41]?zturan,M.,and S.A.Roney.Internet Use among Travel Agencies in Turkey:An Exploratory Study[J].Tourism Management,2004,25,(2):259-266.
[42]Buhalis,D.,and M.C.Licata.The Future Tourism Intermediaries[J].Tourism Management,2002,23,(3):207-220.
[43]冯郑凭.互联网对我国旅游分销渠道的影响研究:从旅游业者视野的角度分析[J].北京:北京第二外国语学院学报,2010,(3):45-50.
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