基于CGE模型的中国煤炭产能政策优化
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摘要
本文基于CHINAGEM模型构建了中国能源经济均衡模型(CGE),建立差异化的多情景政策分析,比较了不同煤炭产能政策及其组合对中国宏观经济和产业部门的影响。研究结果表明:①煤炭产能政策在优化煤炭生产结构的同时,会显著影响其他能源产业和与之有上下游关联的非能源产业产出,不可避免地对宏观经济造成一定的冲击。②降产量政策对煤炭产业结构调整的作用最有效,但对宏观经济的冲击也最大;税收政策对宏观经济的冲击最小,但对煤炭产业结构调整的作用最弱;去产能政策对煤炭产业结构与宏观经济的影响介于降产量政策和税收政策之间。③在实施煤炭产能政策的同时,综合利用税收优惠、产能置换、技术进步等综合政策手段有助于推进煤炭生产结构调整,减缓其对宏观经济的负面影响,最终实现煤炭行业长效发展。本文采用冲击资本投入的方式模拟产能政策的结果更合理,更符合煤炭去产能的经济学含义,该方法同样适用于钢铁、玻璃、水泥等产业去产能的研究。
Based on CHINAGEM, a MONASH-style dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model, this study constructed China's energy economic equilibrium model, conducted a differentiated multi-scenario policy analysis, and compared the impacts of different coal productivity policies and their portfolio on China's macro economy and industries. The results show that, while optimizing coal production structure, the coal productivity policy significantly affects the output of other energy industries and non-energy industries with upstream and downstream linkages, and inevitably has a certain impact on the macro economy. Among the coal production capability policies, reducing non-quality coal production is most effective in optimizing coal production structure, but it has the greatest negative impacts on macro economy. While taxation policy would have a slightly negative impact on macro economy in that national GDP falls by 0.06%, it has the weakest effect in improving coal production structure. The impacts of reducing production capacity fall between the above two policies. In implementing coal production capacity policies, several policies including tax incentives, production capability replacement, and technological advancement would simultaneously improve coal production structure and dampen the negative impacts on macro economy, and ultimately achieve long-term development of the coal industry. It is more reasonable to simulate the capacity policy by means of reducing capital input,which is more in line with the economic meaning of coal deactivation. This method is also applicable to the research of steel, glass, cement, and other industries.
Based on CHINAGEM, a MONASH-style dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model, this study constructed China's energy economic equilibrium model, conducted a differentiated multi-scenario policy analysis, and compared the impacts of different coal productivity policies and their portfolio on China's macro economy and industries. The results show that, while optimizing coal production structure, the coal productivity policy significantly affects the output of other energy industries and non-energy industries with upstream and downstream linkages, and inevitably has a certain impact on the macro economy. Among the coal production capability policies, reducing non-quality coal production is most effective in optimizing coal production structure, but it has the greatest negative impacts on macro economy. While taxation policy would have a slightly negative impact on macro economy in that national GDP falls by 0.06%, it has the weakest effect in improving coal production structure. The impacts of reducing production capacity fall between the above two policies. In implementing coal production capacity policies, several policies including tax incentives, production capability replacement, and technological advancement would simultaneously improve coal production structure and dampen the negative impacts on macro economy, and ultimately achieve long-term development of the coal industry. It is more reasonable to simulate the capacity policy by means of reducing capital input,which is more in line with the economic meaning of coal deactivation. This method is also applicable to the research of steel, glass, cement, and other industries.
引文
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(1)为节省篇幅,本文主要介绍CHINAGEM模型生产部门及其能源产品的投入结构,私人消费、投资、政府、贸易等部门的具体方程设定不再详细介绍,感兴趣的读者详见Mai等[38]。
[2]Wang J,Feng L.Curve-fitting models for fossil fuel production forecasting:Key influence factors[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering,2016,32:138-149.
[3]Li B B,Liang Q M,Wang J C.A comparative study on prediction methods for China’s medium-and long-term coal demand[J].Energy,2015,93:1671-1683.
[4]Hao Y,Zhang Z Y,Liao H,et al.China’s farewell to coal:A forecast of coal consumption through 2020[J].Energy Policy,2015,86:444-455.
[5]国务院办公厅.关于进一步加强淘汰落后产能工作的通知[EB/OL].(2010-04-06)[2019-01-21].http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2010-04/06/content_1573880.htm.[General Office of the State Council.Notice of the State Council on Further Strengthening the Work of Eliminating Backward Production Capacities[EB/OL].(2010-04-06)[2019-01-21].http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2010-04/06/content_1573880.htm.]
[6]国务院办公厅.国务院关于化解产能严重过剩矛盾的指导意见[EB/OL].(2013-10-15)[2019-01-21].http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-10/15/content_2507143.htm.[General Office of the State Council.Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Resolving Serious Production Overcapacity Conflicts[EB/OL].(2013-10-15)[2019-01-21].http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2013-10/15/content_2507143.htm.]
[7]国务院.关于煤炭行业化解过剩产能实现脱困发展的意见[EB/OL].(2016-02-01)[2019-01-21].https://wenku.baidu.com/view/de63c2b14a73f242336c1eb91a37f111f1850de9.html.[The State Council.Opinions on Solving the Problem of Excess Capacity in Coal Industry and Realizing the Development of Difficulty Relief[EB/OL].(2016-02-01)[2019-01-21].https://wenku.baidu.com/view/de63c2b14a73f242336c1eb91a37f111f1850de9.html.]
[8]庞军,高笑默,石媛昌.能源资源税改革对我国城镇居民的收入分配效应:基于投入产出模型的分析[J].中国环境科学,2019,(1):402-411.[Pang J,Gao X M,Shi Y C.The effect of energy and resources tax reform on income distribution of urban residents in China:An analysis based on input-output model[J].China Environmental Science,2019,(1):402-411.]
[9]武辉,于洁.煤炭资源税改革以来出现的问题与对策:以山东省煤炭资源税改革为例[J].税务研究,2017,(8):48-50.[Wu H,Yu J.Problems and countermeasures since the reform of coal resources tax:Take Shandong Province’s coal resources tax reform as an example[J].Tax Research,2017,(8):48-50.]
[10]徐晓亮,程倩,车莹,等.煤炭资源税改革对行业发展和节能减排的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(8):77-83.[Xu X L,Cheng Q,Che Y,et al.Impact on industry development and energy saving and emission reduction by coal resource tax reform on[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(8):77-83.]
[11]刘宇,周梅芳.煤炭资源税改革对中国的经济影响:基于CGE模型的测算[J].宏观经济研究,2015,(2):60-67.[Liu Y,Zhou MF.The economic impact of coal resource tax reform on China:Based on the measurement of CGE model[J].Macroeconomic Research,2015,(2):60-67.]
[12]吴迪.基于CGE模型的资源税改革对能源行业的影响研究:以煤炭行业为例[J].当代经济管理,2014,36(7):62-65.[Wu D.Study on the impact of resource tax reform on the coal industry based on the CGE model[J].Contemporary Economic Management,2014,36(7):62-65.]
[13]Zhang Z K,Guo J E,Qian D,et al.Effects and mechanism of influence of China’s resource tax reform:A regional perspective[J].Energy Economics,2013,36:676-685.
[14]林伯强,刘希颖,邹楚沅,等.资源税改革:以煤炭为例的资源经济学分析[J].中国社会科学,2012,(2):58-78.[Lin B Q,Liu XY,Zou C Y,et al.Resource tax reform:A case study of coal from the perspective of resource economics[J].China Social Sciences,2012,(2):58-78.]
[15]任继球.我国钢铁和煤炭去产能对就业的影响:基于投入产出表的实证分析[J].宏观经济研究,2017,(10):83-91.[Ren J Q.The impact of china’s steel and coal de-capacity on employment:An empirical analysis based on input-output table[J].Macroeconomic Research,2017,(10):83-91.]
[16]Shi X P,Rioux B,Galkin P.Unintended consequences of China’s coal capacity cut policy[J].Energy Policy,2018,113:478-486.
[17]李志俊,原鹏飞.去产能战略的影响评价及建议:基于动态CGE模型的研究[J].中国软科学,2018,(1):10-18.[Li Z J,Yuan P F.Evaluation and route of overcapacity cutting:Analysis based on dynamic computable general equilibrium model[J].China Soft Science,2018,(1):10-18.]
[18]刘尚希,樊轶侠,封北麟.“去产能”财政政策分析、评估及建议[J].经济纵横,2018,(1):81-91.[Liu S X,Fan Y X,Feng B L.Analysis,evaluation and suggestions of fiscal policies in“de-capacity”[J].Economic Aspects,2018,(1):81-91.]
[19]张军令,穆远东.去产能与劳动要素再配置:基于CGE的一般均衡分析[J].管理现代化,2017,37(3):30-32.[Zhang J L,Mu YD.Re-distribution of production capacity and labor factors:General equilibrium analysis based on CGE[J].Management Modernization,2017,37(3):30-32.]
[20]Shepherd C.China Provinces Fall Short on Coal and Steel Capacity Cuts[EB/OL].(2016-08-19)[2019-01-21].http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c77f33ac-65e0-11e6-a08ac7ac04ef00aa.html?siteedition=intl#recommended-h-957051472487994500.
[21]沈煜,丁守海.去产能会引起较大的失业风险吗?[J].上海经济研究,2016,(11):12-19.[Shen Y,Ding S H.On the relations between the reduction on industrial overcapacity and unemployment risk?[J].Shanghai Economic Research,2016,(11):12-19.]
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(1)为节省篇幅,本文主要介绍CHINAGEM模型生产部门及其能源产品的投入结构,私人消费、投资、政府、贸易等部门的具体方程设定不再详细介绍,感兴趣的读者详见Mai等[38]。