重庆市干旱强度时空分布规律研究
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摘要
根据重庆市34个国家级气象站点1961～2016年的日降水量数据,基于重庆市干旱标准,提出重庆市季节性干旱强度指数及年干旱强度综合指数的新算法,并研究重庆市干旱强度的时空分布规律。结果表明,重庆市季节性干旱强度的区域差异大,渝东北夏旱、秋旱及冬旱严重,渝西部为春旱、夏旱的主要分布区,渝中部伏旱最严重;渝东北除春旱外的其他季节性干旱、渝东南的伏旱及秋旱、渝西的夏旱及伏旱和渝中部的伏旱,其季节性干旱强度指数极值均可达到特重旱标准。年干旱强度具有从渝西部向渝东南减小的分布规律,渝西部地区干旱强度最大,其次是渝中部地区和渝东北地区,渝东南地区干旱强度最小。重庆市季节性干旱强度的时间变化趋势不同,春旱及冬旱强度指数总体上呈减小趋势,伏旱和秋旱强度指数总体上呈增加趋势,夏旱强度指数和年干旱强度综合指数时间变化趋势的地区差异较大。近55年来重庆市年干旱强度综合指数变化具有显著的3 a、5 a和18 a的周期性变化和阶段性变化,Hurst指数预测未来短时间内年干旱强度综合指数将增强。
A new algorithm for seasonal drought intensity index and annual drought intensity composite index in Chongqing was proposed,on the basis of the daily precipitation data of from 1961 to 2016 recorded at 34 national meteorological stations in Chongqing and the drought standard of Chongqing,and the temporal and spatial distribution of drought intensity in Chongqing was studied accordingly. The results showed that the seasonal drought intensity varied notably throughout the Chongqing area,the northeastern Chongqing was seriously drought in summer,autumn and winter,the western Chongqing was drought mainly in spring and summer,the central part of Chongqing was drought most seriously in midsummer. The extreme drought intensity indexes for seasonal droughts in all area of Chongqing had reached the standard of extremely heavy drought. The annual drought intensity showed a decreasing distribution from the west to the southeast of Chongqing. The intensity of drought was the highest in western Chongqing,followed by those in central Chongqing,northeastern Chongqing and southeastern Chongqing,respectively. The seasonal drought intensities of Chongqing varied inconsistently,the drought intensity indexes of spring and winter showed decreasing trends,those of midsummer and autumn showed increasing trends. The regional variation trends of summer drought intensity index and annual drought intensity composite index in different regions of Chongqing were different significantly. The annual drought intensity composite index of Chongqing varied periodically with obvious cycles of 3 a,5 a and 18 a. The annual drought intensity composite index of Chongqing may increase continuously in the near future.
A new algorithm for seasonal drought intensity index and annual drought intensity composite index in Chongqing was proposed,on the basis of the daily precipitation data of from 1961 to 2016 recorded at 34 national meteorological stations in Chongqing and the drought standard of Chongqing,and the temporal and spatial distribution of drought intensity in Chongqing was studied accordingly. The results showed that the seasonal drought intensity varied notably throughout the Chongqing area,the northeastern Chongqing was seriously drought in summer,autumn and winter,the western Chongqing was drought mainly in spring and summer,the central part of Chongqing was drought most seriously in midsummer. The extreme drought intensity indexes for seasonal droughts in all area of Chongqing had reached the standard of extremely heavy drought. The annual drought intensity showed a decreasing distribution from the west to the southeast of Chongqing. The intensity of drought was the highest in western Chongqing,followed by those in central Chongqing,northeastern Chongqing and southeastern Chongqing,respectively. The seasonal drought intensities of Chongqing varied inconsistently,the drought intensity indexes of spring and winter showed decreasing trends,those of midsummer and autumn showed increasing trends. The regional variation trends of summer drought intensity index and annual drought intensity composite index in different regions of Chongqing were different significantly. The annual drought intensity composite index of Chongqing varied periodically with obvious cycles of 3 a,5 a and 18 a. The annual drought intensity composite index of Chongqing may increase continuously in the near future.
引文
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[3]杜继稳.陕西省干旱监测预警评估与风险管理[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:1.
[4]赵先丽,张玉书,纪瑞鹏,等.辽宁省粮食生产中旱灾发生特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(3):254-259.
[5]陈怀亮,张红卫,刘荣花,等.中国农业干旱的监测、预警和灾损评估[J].科技导报,2009,27(11):82-92.
[6]高阳华,冉荣生,唐云辉,等.重庆市干旱的分类与指标[J].贵州气象,2001,25(6):16-18+30.
[7]赵伟,张宇,张智红.1981-2010年重庆地区季节性干旱时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(3):192-198+203.
[8]李泽明,何永坤,唐余学,等.近50年重庆地区玉米干旱时空特征分析[J].西南农业学报,2014,27(1):363-368.
[9]徐羽,吴艳飞,徐刚,等.基于相对湿润指数的重庆市气象干旱时空分布特征[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(4):96-103.
[10]吴建峰,谭燕,安佑志,等.基于降水距平百分率的重庆市干旱特征分析[J].安徽农学通报,2016,22(18):127-130.
[11]袁雷,刘依兰,马鹏飞.基于标准化降水指数的1981-2013年西藏干旱时空特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(25):228-234.
[12]重庆市气象局.DB50-T270-2008气象灾害标准[S].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[13]周婷婷.重庆市干旱时空分布特征与规律研究[D].重庆:西南大学,2017.
[14]李泽鸣,魏占民,刘虎,等.近37a新疆福海县ET0变化趋势及影响分析[J].干旱区研究,2015,32(3):573-578.
[15]冯新灵,冯自立,罗隆诚,等.青藏高原冷暖气候变化趋势的R/S分析及Hurst指数试验研究[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(2):175-181.
[16]马力.中国气象灾害大典重庆卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:14-92.