基于百度迁徙数据的长春市春运人口流动时空格局与动力机制
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摘要
基于2015年春运期间长春市与省外城市的人口迁移数据,结合GIS空间表达、自然断裂法、等级钟等方法,分析长春市人口流动的层级特征、空间格局、时序特征及动力机制。研究表明:①春运期间其他城市与长春市间的人口流动具有明显的层级特征,高层级城市的组成遵循拉文斯坦的经济律,低层级城市的空间布局遵循距离律。②长春春运人口流动高度集中于"胡焕庸线"以东区域,其中长春人口联系的重点区域集中于京津冀与长三角地区且分布形态呈现出金字塔式层级分布结构。③春节前后人口流动存在差异,节前迁移城市集中化,节后迁移城市多样化和分散化。④经济律和距离律在人口迁移中起核心作用,而地理认同、适应性及部分特殊城市的特殊职能对迁移方向也存在明显影响。⑤长春市承担吉林省人口流出的门户功能。⑥百度迁徙数据在人口流动研究中具有很好的表征作用,但仍然存在偏向和缺乏个体信息等固有缺陷。
Baidu migration data provides a new research tool for quantitative analysis and depicting the population spatial flow during a specific period. Based on the population flow data between Changchun City and cities in other provinces during the 2015 Spring Festival, combining with GIS spatial expression, natural break and Rank Clock Method, this article analyzes the hierarchy of population flow characteristics, spatial patterns and temporal characteristics and dynamic mechanism in Changchun City. Research shows that: 1) During Chunyun period, the population flow between Changchun and other cities has obvious hierarchy characteristics, composition of high-level cities follows Ravenstein's economic law, spatial distribution of low-level cities follows Ravenstein's distance law. 2) Population flow of Changchun highly gathers in the east of Hu Huanyong line. Besides, main areas of Changchun's population flow distribute in the Yangtze River Delta region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, it presents pyramid hierarchy distribution structure. 3) The population flow before and after the Spring Festival are quite different. The population flow is in the centralized distribution ahead of the festival and in the diverse and scattering distribution after the festival. 4) Economic law and distance law on the population migration play a central role, and the geographical identity, the adaptability and some special functions of special cities obviously effect on the migration directions. 5) Changchun City undertakes the population outflow portal function in Jilin Province. 6) Baidu migration data in the study of population flow has a good characterization of role, but it still has inherent defects such as a bias and lack of individual information.
Baidu migration data provides a new research tool for quantitative analysis and depicting the population spatial flow during a specific period. Based on the population flow data between Changchun City and cities in other provinces during the 2015 Spring Festival, combining with GIS spatial expression, natural break and Rank Clock Method, this article analyzes the hierarchy of population flow characteristics, spatial patterns and temporal characteristics and dynamic mechanism in Changchun City. Research shows that: 1) During Chunyun period, the population flow between Changchun and other cities has obvious hierarchy characteristics, composition of high-level cities follows Ravenstein's economic law, spatial distribution of low-level cities follows Ravenstein's distance law. 2) Population flow of Changchun highly gathers in the east of Hu Huanyong line. Besides, main areas of Changchun's population flow distribute in the Yangtze River Delta region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, it presents pyramid hierarchy distribution structure. 3) The population flow before and after the Spring Festival are quite different. The population flow is in the centralized distribution ahead of the festival and in the diverse and scattering distribution after the festival. 4) Economic law and distance law on the population migration play a central role, and the geographical identity, the adaptability and some special functions of special cities obviously effect on the migration directions. 5) Changchun City undertakes the population outflow portal function in Jilin Province. 6) Baidu migration data in the study of population flow has a good characterization of role, but it still has inherent defects such as a bias and lack of individual information.
引文
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[15]张苏北,朱宇,晋秀龙,等.安徽省内人口迁移的空间特征及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2013,33(5):24-30.
[16]陈晨,修春亮.流空间视角的东北地区城市网络研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(4):82-89.
[17]逯进,郭志仪.中国省域人口迁移与经济增长耦合关系的演进[J].人口研究,2014,38(6):40-56.
[18]张耀军,岑俏.中国人口空间流动格局与省际流动影响因素研究[J].人口研究,2014,38(5):54-71.
[19]赵梓渝,魏冶,庞瑞秋,等.中国春运人口省际流动的时空与结构特征[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(8):952-964.
[20]赵梓渝,魏冶,王士君,等.有向加权城市网络的转变中心性与控制力测度——以中国春运人口流动网络为例[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):647-660.
[21]魏冶,修春亮,刘志敏,等.春运人口流动透视的转型期中国城市网络结构[J].地理科学,2016,36(11):1 654-1 660.
[22]刘望保,石恩名.基于ICT的中国城市间人口日常流动空间格局——以百度迁徙为例[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1 667-1 679.
[23]蒋小荣,汪胜兰,杨永春.中国城市人口流动网络研究——基于百度LBS大数据分析[J].人口与发展,2017,23(1):13-23.
[24]刘志敏,修春亮,魏冶,等. 1990—2010年东北地区人口变化的空间格局及影响因素[J].西北人口,2017,38(5):19-26.
[25] Batty Michael. Rank clocks[J]. Nature,2006,444:592-596.
[26]戚伟,刘盛和,赵美凤.“胡焕庸线”的稳定性及其两侧人口集疏模式差异[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):551-566.
[2] J Matthew Shumway,Samuel M. Otterstrom. Spatial Patterns of Migration and Income Change in the Mountain West:The Domi‐nance of Service-Based,Amenity-Rich Counties[J]. The Profes‐sional Geographer,2010,53(4):492-502.
[3] Stillwell J. 2014. Daras K. Bell M,et al. The IMAGE Studio:A Tool for Internal Migration[J]. Analysis and Modelling,2014,7(1):5-23.
[4] Thomas J Courchene. Interprovincial Migration and Economic Adjustment[J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics,1970(4):550-576.
[5] Yap L Y L. The attraction of cities:A review of the migration literature[J]. Journal of Development Economics,1977,4(3):239-264.
[6] Harris J R and Todaro M P. Migration,Unemployment and Development:A Two-Sector Analysis[J]. American Economic Re‐view,1970,60(1):126-142.
[7] Roger A. Model migration schedules:an application using data for the Soviet Union[J]. Canadian studies in population,1978(5):85-98.
[8] Salvati L,Serra P,Bencardino M,et al. Re-urbanizing the European city:A multivariate analysis of population dynamics dur‐ing expansion and recession times. European Journal of Popula‐tion,2018(4):1-28.
[9] Rogers A. Williamson J G. Migration,urbanization,and third world development:an overview[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1982(3):463-482.
[10]杜小敏,陈建宝.人口迁移与流动对我国各地区经济影响的实证分析[J].人口研究,2010,34(3):77-88.
[11]杨传开,宁越敏.中国省际人口迁移格局演变及其对城镇化发展的影响[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1 492-1 506.
[12]王桂新,潘泽瀚,陆燕秋.中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素——基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析[J].中国人口科学,2012(5):2-13.
[13] Zhang J,Wu L,Yuan F,et al. Mass human migration and Beijing’s urban heat island during the Chinese New Year holiday[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2015,60(11):1 038-1 041.
[14]刘盛和,邓羽,胡章.中国流动人口地域类型的划分方法及空间分布特征[J].地理学报,2010,65(10):1 187-1 197.
[15]张苏北,朱宇,晋秀龙,等.安徽省内人口迁移的空间特征及其影响因素[J].经济地理,2013,33(5):24-30.
[16]陈晨,修春亮.流空间视角的东北地区城市网络研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(4):82-89.
[17]逯进,郭志仪.中国省域人口迁移与经济增长耦合关系的演进[J].人口研究,2014,38(6):40-56.
[18]张耀军,岑俏.中国人口空间流动格局与省际流动影响因素研究[J].人口研究,2014,38(5):54-71.
[19]赵梓渝,魏冶,庞瑞秋,等.中国春运人口省际流动的时空与结构特征[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(8):952-964.
[20]赵梓渝,魏冶,王士君,等.有向加权城市网络的转变中心性与控制力测度——以中国春运人口流动网络为例[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):647-660.
[21]魏冶,修春亮,刘志敏,等.春运人口流动透视的转型期中国城市网络结构[J].地理科学,2016,36(11):1 654-1 660.
[22]刘望保,石恩名.基于ICT的中国城市间人口日常流动空间格局——以百度迁徙为例[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1 667-1 679.
[23]蒋小荣,汪胜兰,杨永春.中国城市人口流动网络研究——基于百度LBS大数据分析[J].人口与发展,2017,23(1):13-23.
[24]刘志敏,修春亮,魏冶,等. 1990—2010年东北地区人口变化的空间格局及影响因素[J].西北人口,2017,38(5):19-26.
[25] Batty Michael. Rank clocks[J]. Nature,2006,444:592-596.
[26]戚伟,刘盛和,赵美凤.“胡焕庸线”的稳定性及其两侧人口集疏模式差异[J].地理学报,2015,70(4):551-566.