中国半干旱区一次冰雹天气过程分析
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摘要
利用NCEP再分析资料、CLDAS-V2.0降水产品、单站雷达、FY-2G红外云图等资料,对2017年6月20日兰州地区的一次冰雹天气过程进行了天气学诊断分析.结果表明, 2017年6月亚洲中高纬度气候异常,极涡位置明显偏南,黑海以东至鄂霍茨克海有东风异常,青藏高原至江淮地区低值系统活动频繁,西北地区易受冷空气入侵;副热带高压偏强、偏西,利于水汽向西北内陆输送,为此次冰雹的发生提供了有利条件.分裂南下的蒙古冷涡是本次冰雹过程的主要影响系统;物理量场分析表明,低层有明显的水汽辐合,底层辐合、高层辐散为冰雹云的发展提供了动力抬升条件;大气层结上冷下暖、上干下湿,近地层存在逆温层,利于不稳定能量积累; 0℃层与-20℃层高度、厚度适宜,适合冰雹生长;卫星、雷达资料表明,黑体温度低值区、强回波中心与冰雹落区对应较好,可作为强雷雨或冰雹天气的预警指标.
NCEP reanalysis data, China Meteorological Administration CLDAS-V2.0 precipitation products, radar data of Lanzhou station and FY-2 G infrared satellite imagery were used to conduct a diagnostic analysis of a hail weather process in Lanzhou on June 20, 2017. The results were as follows.in June2017, the climate in mid and high-latitudes in Asia was abnormal. The position of the polar vortex was significantly southerly. There were east wind anomalies from the eastern Black Sea to the Okhotsk Sea.From Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau to Jianghuai, low value system activities were frequent. Northwest China was vulnerable to invasion of cold air. The subtropical high was significantly strong and westerly, which was conducive to the transportation of water vapor to the northwest inland. This circulation situation provided favorable conditions for the occurrence of the hail. From the aspect of weather situation, the hail was produced in the background of southern split of Mongolia cold vortex. Analysis of physical fields revealed that a significant moisture convergence at low level provided abundant moisture as the convective weather occurred. The configuration of convergence at the lower level and divergence at the upper level provided dynamical lifting conditions for the development of hail cloud. The atmosphere was cold and dry in higher levels and wet and warm in lower levels and inversion layer, which was favorable for the accumulation of unstable energy, was also observed. The height and thickness of 0 ℃ level and-20 ℃ level were very suitable for hail growth. The satellite and radar data showed that the center area of black-body temperature low value and strong echo corresponded exactly with the hail falling area, which can be used as early warning indicators for strong thunderstorms or hailstorms in the future.
NCEP reanalysis data, China Meteorological Administration CLDAS-V2.0 precipitation products, radar data of Lanzhou station and FY-2 G infrared satellite imagery were used to conduct a diagnostic analysis of a hail weather process in Lanzhou on June 20, 2017. The results were as follows.in June2017, the climate in mid and high-latitudes in Asia was abnormal. The position of the polar vortex was significantly southerly. There were east wind anomalies from the eastern Black Sea to the Okhotsk Sea.From Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau to Jianghuai, low value system activities were frequent. Northwest China was vulnerable to invasion of cold air. The subtropical high was significantly strong and westerly, which was conducive to the transportation of water vapor to the northwest inland. This circulation situation provided favorable conditions for the occurrence of the hail. From the aspect of weather situation, the hail was produced in the background of southern split of Mongolia cold vortex. Analysis of physical fields revealed that a significant moisture convergence at low level provided abundant moisture as the convective weather occurred. The configuration of convergence at the lower level and divergence at the upper level provided dynamical lifting conditions for the development of hail cloud. The atmosphere was cold and dry in higher levels and wet and warm in lower levels and inversion layer, which was favorable for the accumulation of unstable energy, was also observed. The height and thickness of 0 ℃ level and-20 ℃ level were very suitable for hail growth. The satellite and radar data showed that the center area of black-body temperature low value and strong echo corresponded exactly with the hail falling area, which can be used as early warning indicators for strong thunderstorms or hailstorms in the future.
引文
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[3]Huang Jian-ping,Yu Hai-peng,Guan Xiao-dan,et al.Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change[J].Nature Climate Change,2016,6(2):166-171.
[4]刘俊,季明霞.东亚干旱、半干旱区夏季降水的模拟研究[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2017,53(4):467-480.
[5]Huang Jian-ping,Yu Hai-peng,Dai Ai-guo,et al.Drylands face potential threat under 2℃global warming target[J].Nature Climate Change,2017,7(6):417-422.
[6]Trenberth K E.Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling:implications for rainfall rates and climate change[J].Climatic Change,1998,39(4):667-694.
[7]赵庆云,张武,王式功,等.西北地区东部干旱半干旱区极端降水事件的变化[J].中国沙漠,2005,25(6):904-909.
[8]翟盘茂,任福民,张强.中国降水极值变化趋势检测[J].气象学报,1999(2):208-216.
[9]黄玉霞,王宝鉴,王研峰,等.1974-2013年甘肃冰雹日数的变化特征[J].气象,2017(4):450-459.
[10]王宝鉴,黄玉霞,陶健红,等.西北地区大气水汽的区域分布特征及其变化[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(1):15-21.
[11]黄建平,冉津江,季明霞.中国干旱半干旱区洪涝灾害的初步分析[J].气象学报,2014,72(6):1096-1107.
[12]刘琳,陈静.新疆1961-2011年极端降水事件年内非均匀性特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2013(1):53-59.
[13]王宝鉴,孔祥伟,傅朝,等.甘肃陇东南一次大暴雨的中尺度特征分析[J].高原气象,2016,35(6):1551-1564.
[14]路亚奇,曹彦超,张峰,等.陇东冰雹天气特征分析及预报预警[J].高原气象,2016,35(6):1565-1576.
[15]戴宇珩,张乃升,孙伟中,等.2013年5月18日兰州北部强雷暴过程分析[J].安徽农业科学,2013(32):12644-12646.
[16]齐月,陈海燕,房世波,等.1961-2010年西北地区极端气候事件变化特征[J].干旱气象,2015,33(6):963-969.
[17]马中华,张勃,王兴梅,等.近50 a甘肃省夏季日极端降水频数与强度变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(2):296-302.
[18]翟盘茂,潘晓华.中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J].地理学报,2003,58(S1):1-10.
[19]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文.天气学原理和方法[M].第4版,气象出版社,2007.
[20]濮文耀,李红斌,宋煜,等.0℃层高度的变化对冰雹融化影响的分析和应用[J].气象,2015,41(8):980-985.