基于@RISK辣椒果实蝇对我国辣椒产业的潜在经济损失评估
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摘要
【目的】预测辣椒果实蝇Bactrocera latifrons Hendel对我国辣椒产业的潜在经济损失,为有关部门提供加强防控措施的科学依据。【方法】在收集辣椒果实蝇、辣椒市场价格与防治费用相关数据的基础上,采用孙宏禹等(2018)所构建的重要经济实蝇潜在经济损失通用模型,利用@RISK软件及随机模拟方法,预测了辣椒果实蝇可能给我国辣椒产业带来的直接经济损失。【结果】在不防治场景下的潜在经济损失总量在51 476.91-1 452 378.22万元之间,防治场景下的潜在经济损失总量在29 937.36-1 231 386.65万元之间,投入防治后所能挽回的潜在经济损失在8 075.53-441 462.75万元之间。【结论】辣椒果实蝇可能给我国辣椒产业带来的潜在经济损失较大。建议我国有关部门进一步加强针对辣椒果实蝇的防控措施,从降低辣椒果实蝇为害率与损失率入手进行防治以减少其可能造成的经济损失。
[Objectives] To predict the potential economic loss to the Chinese chili industry caused by the solanum fruit fly(Bactrocera latifrons Hendel), and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods] We collated relevant data on the solanum fruit fly, the market price of chili and the cost of prevention, then used the universal model of potential economic loss assessment due to economically important fruit flies(Sun 2018), @RISK and a stochastic simulation method to predict the potential direct economic loss to the chili industry. [Results] With no control of the solanum fruit fly, we predict that the chili industry could lose 514.77-14 523.78 million RMB, but with effective control it would lose only 299.37-12 313.87 million RMB, a saving of 80.76-4 414.63 million RMB. [Conclusion] The potential economic damage to the chili industry in China caused by the solanum fruit fly is high. Strengthening prevention and control of this pest is required to reduce rates of infection.
[Objectives] To predict the potential economic loss to the Chinese chili industry caused by the solanum fruit fly(Bactrocera latifrons Hendel), and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this pest. [Methods] We collated relevant data on the solanum fruit fly, the market price of chili and the cost of prevention, then used the universal model of potential economic loss assessment due to economically important fruit flies(Sun 2018), @RISK and a stochastic simulation method to predict the potential direct economic loss to the chili industry. [Results] With no control of the solanum fruit fly, we predict that the chili industry could lose 514.77-14 523.78 million RMB, but with effective control it would lose only 299.37-12 313.87 million RMB, a saving of 80.76-4 414.63 million RMB. [Conclusion] The potential economic damage to the chili industry in China caused by the solanum fruit fly is high. Strengthening prevention and control of this pest is required to reduce rates of infection.
引文
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Geng SS,Chen B,Zhang XF,Sun JT,2011.The development of chili breeding in China and the distribution of species in the market.Chili Magazine,2011(3):1-9.[耿三省,陈斌,张晓芬,孙京涛,2011.我国辣椒育种动态及市场品种分布概况.辣椒杂志,2011(3):1-9.]
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Liquido NJ,Harris EJ,Dekker LA,1994.Ecology of Bactrocera latifrons(Diptera:Tephritidae)populations:host plants,natural enemies,distribution,and abundance.Annals of the Entomological Society of America,87(1):71-84.
Li ZH,2015.Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions:Potential Geographical Distribution of Economic Important Fruit Flies.Beijing:China Agriculture University Publishing House Press.90-95.[李志红,2015.生物入侵防控:重要经济实蝇潜在地理分布研究.北京:中国农业大学出版社.90-95.]
Ma YQ,2011.Situation analysis of chili industry in China.Chili Magazine,2011(1):1-5.[马艳青,2011.我国辣椒产业形势分析.辣椒杂志,2011(1):1-5.]
Mc Quate GT,Grant T,Liquido,Nicanor J,2013.Annotated world bibliography of host fruits of Bactrocera latifrons(Hendel)(Diptera:Tephritidae).Insecta Mundi,289(1):1-61.
National Agricultural Business Information Public Service Platform,2018.Agricultural product price analysis system.http://nc.mofcom.gov.cn/channel/jghq2017/index.shtml.[全国农产品商务信息公共服务平台,2018.农产品价格分析系统.http://nc.mofcom.gov.cn/channel/jghq2017/index.shtml.]
Palisade Corporation,2018.Guide to Using@RISK.http://www.palisade.com/risk/
Pan F,Xiao TB,Qian S,Chen HY,Lin ZF,Xie SH,2014.Study on yield of bitter gourd damaged by Bactrocera cucurbitae and its economic thresholds.China Plant Protection,34(10):12-15.[潘飞,肖彤斌,秦双,陈海燕,林珠凤,谢圣华,2014.瓜实蝇为害对苦瓜产量的影响及其防治指标研究.中国植保导刊,34(10):12-15.]
Sun HY,Qin YJ,Fang Y,Zhao ZH,Pan XB,Zhao SQ,Liu H,Lan S,Lu GC,Li ZH,2018.The potential economic loss of bitter gourd industry in China caused by Zeugodacus cucurbitae(Coquillett)based on@RISK.Plant Quarantine,32(6):64-69.[孙宏禹,秦誉嘉,方焱,赵中华,潘绪斌,赵守歧,刘慧,蓝帅,卢国彩,李志红,2018.基于@RISK的瓜实蝇对我国苦瓜产业的潜在经济损失评估.植物检疫,32(6):64-69.]
Taylor AS,Cook DC,2018.An economic assessment of the impact on the Western Australian viticulture industry from the incursion of grapevine downy mildew.Journal of Plant Diseases&Protection,125(4):1-7.
Wu QM,2014.Prediction of suitable distribution area and risk analysis of six important fruit flies.Master thesis.Fuzhou:Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University.[吴淇铭,2014.6种重要果实蝇的适生区预测和风险分析.硕士学位论文.福州:福建农林大学.]
Yuan SY,Kong Q,Xiao C,Chen B,Yang SS,Zhang JB,Sun W,Li ZY,2005.Influence of temperature on development,survival and fecundity of Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel.Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,24(6):588-591.[袁盛勇,孔琼,肖春,陈斌,杨仕生,张建波,孙文,李正跃,2005.温度对桔小实蝇发育、存活和繁殖的影响.华中农业大学学报,24(6):588-591.]
Zeng SM,1994.Introduction of Plant Protection System Engineering.Beijing:Beijing Agriculture University Publishing House Press.83-89.[曾士迈,1994.植保系统工程导论.北京:北京农业大学出版社.83-89.]
Zheng JY,Li XF,Zhou SD,Ma YQ,2018.Progress of chili science in 2017.China Vegetables,2018(5):9-15.[郑井元,李雪峰,周书栋,马艳青,2018.2017年度辣椒科学研究进展.中国蔬菜,2018(5):9-15.]
EPPO,2014.PQR database.Paris,France:European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization.http://www.eppo.int/DATABASES/pqr/pqr.htm.
Fang Y,Li ZH,Qin M,Wu ZG,Zhao SQ,Wu LF,Zhao ZH,Chen K,Qin YJ,Wang C,Zhao T,2015.The potential economic impact of the pumpkin industry caused by Bactrocera tau(Walker).Plant Protection,29(3):28-33.[方焱,李志红,秦萌,吴志刚,赵守歧,吴立峰,赵中华,陈可,秦誉嘉,王聪,赵谈,2015.南亚果实蝇对我国南瓜产业的潜在经济损失评估.植物检疫,29(3):28-33.]
FAO,2018.FAOSTAT.http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC
Geng SS,Chen B,Zhang XF,Sun JT,2011.The development of chili breeding in China and the distribution of species in the market.Chili Magazine,2011(3):1-9.[耿三省,陈斌,张晓芬,孙京涛,2011.我国辣椒育种动态及市场品种分布概况.辣椒杂志,2011(3):1-9.]
Huang Z,Huang KH,2009.Quarantine pest,Bactrocera latifrons,the morphology,hazard and quarantine measures.Wuyi Science Journal,25(1):21-23.[黄振,黄可辉,2009.检疫性有害生物-辣椒实蝇的形态、危害与检疫对策.武夷科学,25(1):21-23.]
Liquido NJ,Harris EJ,Dekker LA,1994.Ecology of Bactrocera latifrons(Diptera:Tephritidae)populations:host plants,natural enemies,distribution,and abundance.Annals of the Entomological Society of America,87(1):71-84.
Li ZH,2015.Prevention and Control of Biological Invasions:Potential Geographical Distribution of Economic Important Fruit Flies.Beijing:China Agriculture University Publishing House Press.90-95.[李志红,2015.生物入侵防控:重要经济实蝇潜在地理分布研究.北京:中国农业大学出版社.90-95.]
Ma YQ,2011.Situation analysis of chili industry in China.Chili Magazine,2011(1):1-5.[马艳青,2011.我国辣椒产业形势分析.辣椒杂志,2011(1):1-5.]
Mc Quate GT,Grant T,Liquido,Nicanor J,2013.Annotated world bibliography of host fruits of Bactrocera latifrons(Hendel)(Diptera:Tephritidae).Insecta Mundi,289(1):1-61.
National Agricultural Business Information Public Service Platform,2018.Agricultural product price analysis system.http://nc.mofcom.gov.cn/channel/jghq2017/index.shtml.[全国农产品商务信息公共服务平台,2018.农产品价格分析系统.http://nc.mofcom.gov.cn/channel/jghq2017/index.shtml.]
Palisade Corporation,2018.Guide to Using@RISK.http://www.palisade.com/risk/
Pan F,Xiao TB,Qian S,Chen HY,Lin ZF,Xie SH,2014.Study on yield of bitter gourd damaged by Bactrocera cucurbitae and its economic thresholds.China Plant Protection,34(10):12-15.[潘飞,肖彤斌,秦双,陈海燕,林珠凤,谢圣华,2014.瓜实蝇为害对苦瓜产量的影响及其防治指标研究.中国植保导刊,34(10):12-15.]
Sun HY,Qin YJ,Fang Y,Zhao ZH,Pan XB,Zhao SQ,Liu H,Lan S,Lu GC,Li ZH,2018.The potential economic loss of bitter gourd industry in China caused by Zeugodacus cucurbitae(Coquillett)based on@RISK.Plant Quarantine,32(6):64-69.[孙宏禹,秦誉嘉,方焱,赵中华,潘绪斌,赵守歧,刘慧,蓝帅,卢国彩,李志红,2018.基于@RISK的瓜实蝇对我国苦瓜产业的潜在经济损失评估.植物检疫,32(6):64-69.]
Taylor AS,Cook DC,2018.An economic assessment of the impact on the Western Australian viticulture industry from the incursion of grapevine downy mildew.Journal of Plant Diseases&Protection,125(4):1-7.
Wu QM,2014.Prediction of suitable distribution area and risk analysis of six important fruit flies.Master thesis.Fuzhou:Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University.[吴淇铭,2014.6种重要果实蝇的适生区预测和风险分析.硕士学位论文.福州:福建农林大学.]
Yuan SY,Kong Q,Xiao C,Chen B,Yang SS,Zhang JB,Sun W,Li ZY,2005.Influence of temperature on development,survival and fecundity of Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel.Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,24(6):588-591.[袁盛勇,孔琼,肖春,陈斌,杨仕生,张建波,孙文,李正跃,2005.温度对桔小实蝇发育、存活和繁殖的影响.华中农业大学学报,24(6):588-591.]
Zeng SM,1994.Introduction of Plant Protection System Engineering.Beijing:Beijing Agriculture University Publishing House Press.83-89.[曾士迈,1994.植保系统工程导论.北京:北京农业大学出版社.83-89.]
Zheng JY,Li XF,Zhou SD,Ma YQ,2018.Progress of chili science in 2017.China Vegetables,2018(5):9-15.[郑井元,李雪峰,周书栋,马艳青,2018.2017年度辣椒科学研究进展.中国蔬菜,2018(5):9-15.]