陕西关中冬油菜生长发育不同模型模拟精度研究
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摘要
在陕西关中地区进行了连续6年(2009年9月—2015年5月)的冬油菜非充分灌溉试验,利用STICS、DSSAT和APSIM 3种不同模型对冬油菜物候期和产量等进行模拟,比较了3种不同模型的模拟精度。结果表明,3种模型中STICS模拟精度最高,平均RARE为3. 24%,APSIM模型次之,平均RARE为8. 79%,DSSAT模型最差,平均RARE为11. 38%。其中STICS模型对物候期和产量的模拟精度均为最高,DSSAT模型对物候期的模拟精度高于APSIM模型,而APSIM模型对产量相关指标的模拟精度高于DSSAT模型。由于2012—2013年生育期内降水量较低,3种模型的模拟精度均较低,说明3个模型对干旱胁迫条件下的作物生长模拟均存在一定不足。综合比较,STICS模型的模拟精度高于DSSAT和APSIM模型,因此推荐STICS模型为关中地区冬油菜生长发育和产量形成模拟的适宜模型。
Crop growth simulation models provided convenience for agricultural production research.However,there were many differences among the models in some of their structures and process descriptions. Thus,different models might have different simulation accuracies in different regions. An insufficient irrigation experiment of winter rape( Brassica napus L.) was conducted for six consecutive years( 2009-09—2015-05) in Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi Province. And the STICS,DSSAT and APSIM models were used to simulate the phenology dates and yields of winter rape based on the experimental data to evaluate their simulation accuracies. The results showed that the simulation accuracy of STICS was the highest among the three models with average value of absolute relative error( RARE) of3. 24%; APSIM model ranked the second with average RAREof 8. 79%; DSSAT model was the worst with average RAREof 11. 38%. In addition,the simulation accuracy of STICS model was the highest in both phenology dates and yields of winter rape. The simulation accuracy of DSSAT model in phenology date was higher than that of APSIM model,while in yield the simulation accuracy of APSIM was higher than that of DSSAT model. However,the simulation accuracies of the three models were all low in the season of 2012—2013 due to the low precipitation,which meant that the three models were inadequate in the simulation of drought stress conditions. In general,the accuracy of the STICS model was higher than those of DSSAT and APSIM models. The STICS model was recommended for the simulation of winter rape growth in the Guanzhong Plain.
Crop growth simulation models provided convenience for agricultural production research.However,there were many differences among the models in some of their structures and process descriptions. Thus,different models might have different simulation accuracies in different regions. An insufficient irrigation experiment of winter rape( Brassica napus L.) was conducted for six consecutive years( 2009-09—2015-05) in Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi Province. And the STICS,DSSAT and APSIM models were used to simulate the phenology dates and yields of winter rape based on the experimental data to evaluate their simulation accuracies. The results showed that the simulation accuracy of STICS was the highest among the three models with average value of absolute relative error( RARE) of3. 24%; APSIM model ranked the second with average RAREof 8. 79%; DSSAT model was the worst with average RAREof 11. 38%. In addition,the simulation accuracy of STICS model was the highest in both phenology dates and yields of winter rape. The simulation accuracy of DSSAT model in phenology date was higher than that of APSIM model,while in yield the simulation accuracy of APSIM was higher than that of DSSAT model. However,the simulation accuracies of the three models were all low in the season of 2012—2013 due to the low precipitation,which meant that the three models were inadequate in the simulation of drought stress conditions. In general,the accuracy of the STICS model was higher than those of DSSAT and APSIM models. The STICS model was recommended for the simulation of winter rape growth in the Guanzhong Plain.
引文
[1] BRIAN A K,PETER J T. Modelling crops and cropping systems—evolving purpose,practice and prospects[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2018,100:163-176.
[2] STAPLETON H N. Crop production system simulation[J]. Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Engineers,1970,13(1):110-113.
[3]曹宏鑫,赵锁劳,葛道阔,等.作物模型发展探讨[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(17):3520-3528.CAO Hongxin,ZHAO Suolao,GE Daokuo,et al. Disscussion on development of crop models[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2011,44(17):3520-3528.(in Chinese)
[4]王亚莉,贺立源.作物生长模拟模型研究和应用综述[J].华中农业大学学报,2005,24(5):529-535.WANG Yali,HE Liyuan. A review on the research and application of crop simulation model[J]. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,2005,24(5):529-535.(in Chinese)
[5]谢云,JAMES R K.国外作物生长模型发展综述[J].作物学报,2002,28(2):190-195.XIE Yun,JAMES R K. A review on the development of crop modeling and its application[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica,2002,28(2):190-195.(in Chinese)
[6] CLEMENTE R S,ASADI M E,DIXIT P N. Assessment and comparison of three crop growth models under tropical climate conditions[J]. Journal of Food Agriculture&Environment,2005,3(2):254-261.
[7]刘成,黄杰,冷博峰,等.我国油菜产业现状、发展困境及建议[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(12):203-210.LIU Cheng,HUANG Jie,LENG Bofeng,et al. Current situation,development difficulties and suggestions of Chinese rape indestry[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(12):203-210.(in Chinese)
[8]王汉中.入世后的中国油菜产业[J].中国油料作物学报,2002,24(2):82-86.WANG Hanzhong. China’s rape industry after entry into WTO[J]. Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences,2002,24(2):82-86.(in Chinese)
[9]谷晓博,李援农,银敏华,等.降解膜覆盖对油菜根系、产量和水分利用效率的影响[J/OL].农业机械学报,2015,46(12):184-193.GU Xiaobo,LI Yuannong,YIN Minhua,et al. Effects of biodegradable film mulching on root distribution,yield and water use efficiency of winter oilseed rape(Brassica napus L.)[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(12):184-193. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20151225&flag=1.DOI:10. 6041/j. issn. 1000-1298. 2015. 12. 025.(in Chinese)
[10]廖庆喜,雷小龙,廖宜涛,等.油菜精量播种技术研究进展[J/OL].农业机械学报,2017,48(9):1-16.LIAO Qingxi,LEI Xiaolong,LIAO Yitao,et al. Research progress of precision seeding for rapeseed[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(9):1-16. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20170901&flag=1. DOI:10. 6041/j. issn. 1000-1298. 2017. 09. 001.(in Chinese)
[11] DELIGIOS P A,FARCI R,SULAS L,et al. Predicting growth and yield of winter rapeseed in a mediterranean environment:model adaptation at a field scale[J]. Field Crops Research,2013,144(6):100-112.
[12] ROBERTSON M J,LILLEY J M. Simulation of growth,development and yield of canola(Brassica napus)in APSIM[J].Crop and Pasture Science,2016,67(4):332-344.
[13] BRISSON N,MARY B,RIPOCHE D,et al. STICS:a generic model for the simulation of crops and their water and nitrogen balances. I. Theory and parameterization applied to wheat and corn[J]. Agronomie,1998,18(5-6):311-346.
[14] ZLELKE K T,LUCKETT D,COWLEY R. Calibration and testing of the FAO Aqua Crop model for canola[J]. Agronomy Journal,2011,103(6):1610-1618.
[15] GABRIELLE B,DENOROY P,GOSSE G,et al. Development and evaluation of a CERES-type model for winter oilseed rape[J]. Field Crops Research,1998,57(2):95-111.
[16] DIEPENBROCK W. Yield analysis of winter oilseed rape(Brassica napus L.):a review[J]. Field Crops Research,2000,67(1):35-49.
[17] PETERSEN C T,JORGENSEN U,SVENDSEN H,et al. Parameter assessment for simulation of biomass production and nitrogen uptake in winter rape[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,1995,4(1):77-89.
[18] KINIRY J R,WILLIAMS J R,MAJOR D J,et al. EPIC model parameters for cereal,oilseed,and forage crops in the northern Great Plains region[J]. Canadian Journal of Plant Science,1995,75(3):679-688.
[19] KOCH S,DUNKER S,KLEINHENZ B,et al. A crop loss-related forecasting model for sclerotinia stem rot in winter oilseed rape[J]. Phytopathology,2007,97(9):1186-1194.
[20] JING Q,SHANG J,QIAN B,et al. Evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-Canola model for simulating canola growth and yield at west Nipissing in Eastern Canada[J]. Agronomy Journal,2016,108(2):575-584.
[21] HE D,WANG E,WANG J,et al. Uncertainty in canola phenology modelling induced by cultivar parameterization and its impact on simulated yield[J]. Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2017,232:163-175.
[22] MOUSAVIZADEH S F,HONAR T,AHMADI S H. Assessment of the Aqua Crop model for simulating canola under different irrigation managements in a semiarid area[J]. International Journal of Plant Production,2016,10(4):425-446.
[23] BRISSON N,GARY C,JUSTES E,et al. An overview of the crop model STICS[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2003,18(3-4):309-332.
[24] ALLAN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al. Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56[J]. FAO,Rome,1998,300(9):D05109.
[25] SHUTTLEWORTH W J,WALLACE J S. Evaporation from sparse crops—an energy combination theory[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2010,111(469):839-855.
[26] PRIESTLEY C H B,TAYLOR R J. On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters[J].Monthly Weather Review,1972,100(2):81-92.
[27] RITCHIE J T. A user-orientated model of the soil water balance in wheat[M]∥Wheat growth and modelling. MA,Boston:Springer,1985:293-305.
[28] JONES J W,HOOGENBOOM G,PORTER C H,et al. The DSSAT cropping system model[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2003,18(3):235-265.
[29] RITCHIE J T. Soil water balance and plant water stress[M]∥TSUJI G Y,HOOGENBOOM G,THORNTON P K.Understanding options for agricultural production. Dordrecht,Netherlandds:Kluver Academic,1998:41-54.
[30] SASEENDRAN S A,AHUJA L R,MA L,et al. Current water deficit stress simulations in selected agricultural system models[M]∥AHUJA L R,REDDY V R,SASEENDRAN S A,et al. Response of crops to limited water:understanding and modeling water stress effects on plant growth processes. Fort Collins:Colorado,2008:1-38.
[31] MCCOWN R L,HAMMER G L,HARGREAVES J N G,et al. APSIM:a novel software system for model development,model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research[J]. Agricultural Systems,1996,50(3):255-271.
[32]刘布春,王石立,马玉平.国外作物模型区域应用研究进展[J].气象科技,2002,30(4):193-203.LIU Buchun,WANG Shili,MA Yuping. Advances in regional application of crop models abroad[J]. Meterological Science and Technology,2002,30(4):193-203.(in Chinese)
[33] PROBERT M E,DIMES J P,KEATING B A,et al. APSIM's water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems[J]. Agricultural Systems,1998,56(1):1-28.
[34] VERBURG K,ROSS P J,BRISTOW K L. SWIMv2. 1 user manual[M]. Canberra,Australia:CSIRO Division of Soils,1996.
[35] ANGSTROM A. Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radition[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2007,50(210):121-126.
[36] XIONG W,HOLMAN I,CONWAY D,et al. A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies[J].Ecological Modelling,2008,213(3):365-380.
[37] HE J,JONES J W,GRAHAM W D,et al. Influence of likelihood function choice for estimating crop model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method[J]. Agricultural Systems,2010,103(5):256-264.
[38] SASEENDRAN S A,NIELSEN D C,MA L,et al. Adapting CROPGRO for simulating spring canola growth with both RZWQM2 and DSSAT 4. 0[J]. Agronomy Journal,2010,102(6):1606-1621.
[39] WANG S,WANG E,WANG F,et al. Phenological development and grain yield of canola as affected by sowing date and climate variation in the Yangtze River Basin of China[J]. Crop and Pasture Science,2012,63(5):478-488.
[40] HABEKOTTE B. A model of the phenological development of winter oilseed rape(Brassica napus L.)[J]. Field Crops Research,1997,54(2-3):127-136.
[41]官春云.优质油菜生理生态和现代栽培技术[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2013.
[42] DOMINIQUE D,PIERRE R. Impact of drought stress on the phenology of two soybean(Glycine max L. Merr)cultivars[J].Field Crops Research,1996,46(1-3):61-70.
[43]马玉平,孙琳丽,马晓群.黄淮海地区夏玉米对干旱和涝渍的生理生态反应[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(4):85-93.MA Yuping,SUN Linli,MA Xiaoqun. Ecophysiological responses of summer maize to drought and waterlogging in HuangHuai-Hai plain[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2016,34(4):85-93.(in Chinese)
[44]姚宁,周元刚,宋利兵,等.不同水分胁迫条件下DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型的调参与验证[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(12):138-150.YAO Ning,ZHOU Yuangang,SONG Libing,et al. Parameter estimation and verification of DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for simulation of growth and development of winter wheat under water stresses at different growth stages[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2015,31(12):138-150.(in Chinese)
[2] STAPLETON H N. Crop production system simulation[J]. Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Engineers,1970,13(1):110-113.
[3]曹宏鑫,赵锁劳,葛道阔,等.作物模型发展探讨[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(17):3520-3528.CAO Hongxin,ZHAO Suolao,GE Daokuo,et al. Disscussion on development of crop models[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2011,44(17):3520-3528.(in Chinese)
[4]王亚莉,贺立源.作物生长模拟模型研究和应用综述[J].华中农业大学学报,2005,24(5):529-535.WANG Yali,HE Liyuan. A review on the research and application of crop simulation model[J]. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,2005,24(5):529-535.(in Chinese)
[5]谢云,JAMES R K.国外作物生长模型发展综述[J].作物学报,2002,28(2):190-195.XIE Yun,JAMES R K. A review on the development of crop modeling and its application[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica,2002,28(2):190-195.(in Chinese)
[6] CLEMENTE R S,ASADI M E,DIXIT P N. Assessment and comparison of three crop growth models under tropical climate conditions[J]. Journal of Food Agriculture&Environment,2005,3(2):254-261.
[7]刘成,黄杰,冷博峰,等.我国油菜产业现状、发展困境及建议[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(12):203-210.LIU Cheng,HUANG Jie,LENG Bofeng,et al. Current situation,development difficulties and suggestions of Chinese rape indestry[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University,2017,22(12):203-210.(in Chinese)
[8]王汉中.入世后的中国油菜产业[J].中国油料作物学报,2002,24(2):82-86.WANG Hanzhong. China’s rape industry after entry into WTO[J]. Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences,2002,24(2):82-86.(in Chinese)
[9]谷晓博,李援农,银敏华,等.降解膜覆盖对油菜根系、产量和水分利用效率的影响[J/OL].农业机械学报,2015,46(12):184-193.GU Xiaobo,LI Yuannong,YIN Minhua,et al. Effects of biodegradable film mulching on root distribution,yield and water use efficiency of winter oilseed rape(Brassica napus L.)[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(12):184-193. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20151225&flag=1.DOI:10. 6041/j. issn. 1000-1298. 2015. 12. 025.(in Chinese)
[10]廖庆喜,雷小龙,廖宜涛,等.油菜精量播种技术研究进展[J/OL].农业机械学报,2017,48(9):1-16.LIAO Qingxi,LEI Xiaolong,LIAO Yitao,et al. Research progress of precision seeding for rapeseed[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(9):1-16. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? file_no=20170901&flag=1. DOI:10. 6041/j. issn. 1000-1298. 2017. 09. 001.(in Chinese)
[11] DELIGIOS P A,FARCI R,SULAS L,et al. Predicting growth and yield of winter rapeseed in a mediterranean environment:model adaptation at a field scale[J]. Field Crops Research,2013,144(6):100-112.
[12] ROBERTSON M J,LILLEY J M. Simulation of growth,development and yield of canola(Brassica napus)in APSIM[J].Crop and Pasture Science,2016,67(4):332-344.
[13] BRISSON N,MARY B,RIPOCHE D,et al. STICS:a generic model for the simulation of crops and their water and nitrogen balances. I. Theory and parameterization applied to wheat and corn[J]. Agronomie,1998,18(5-6):311-346.
[14] ZLELKE K T,LUCKETT D,COWLEY R. Calibration and testing of the FAO Aqua Crop model for canola[J]. Agronomy Journal,2011,103(6):1610-1618.
[15] GABRIELLE B,DENOROY P,GOSSE G,et al. Development and evaluation of a CERES-type model for winter oilseed rape[J]. Field Crops Research,1998,57(2):95-111.
[16] DIEPENBROCK W. Yield analysis of winter oilseed rape(Brassica napus L.):a review[J]. Field Crops Research,2000,67(1):35-49.
[17] PETERSEN C T,JORGENSEN U,SVENDSEN H,et al. Parameter assessment for simulation of biomass production and nitrogen uptake in winter rape[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,1995,4(1):77-89.
[18] KINIRY J R,WILLIAMS J R,MAJOR D J,et al. EPIC model parameters for cereal,oilseed,and forage crops in the northern Great Plains region[J]. Canadian Journal of Plant Science,1995,75(3):679-688.
[19] KOCH S,DUNKER S,KLEINHENZ B,et al. A crop loss-related forecasting model for sclerotinia stem rot in winter oilseed rape[J]. Phytopathology,2007,97(9):1186-1194.
[20] JING Q,SHANG J,QIAN B,et al. Evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-Canola model for simulating canola growth and yield at west Nipissing in Eastern Canada[J]. Agronomy Journal,2016,108(2):575-584.
[21] HE D,WANG E,WANG J,et al. Uncertainty in canola phenology modelling induced by cultivar parameterization and its impact on simulated yield[J]. Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2017,232:163-175.
[22] MOUSAVIZADEH S F,HONAR T,AHMADI S H. Assessment of the Aqua Crop model for simulating canola under different irrigation managements in a semiarid area[J]. International Journal of Plant Production,2016,10(4):425-446.
[23] BRISSON N,GARY C,JUSTES E,et al. An overview of the crop model STICS[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2003,18(3-4):309-332.
[24] ALLAN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al. Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56[J]. FAO,Rome,1998,300(9):D05109.
[25] SHUTTLEWORTH W J,WALLACE J S. Evaporation from sparse crops—an energy combination theory[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2010,111(469):839-855.
[26] PRIESTLEY C H B,TAYLOR R J. On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters[J].Monthly Weather Review,1972,100(2):81-92.
[27] RITCHIE J T. A user-orientated model of the soil water balance in wheat[M]∥Wheat growth and modelling. MA,Boston:Springer,1985:293-305.
[28] JONES J W,HOOGENBOOM G,PORTER C H,et al. The DSSAT cropping system model[J]. European Journal of Agronomy,2003,18(3):235-265.
[29] RITCHIE J T. Soil water balance and plant water stress[M]∥TSUJI G Y,HOOGENBOOM G,THORNTON P K.Understanding options for agricultural production. Dordrecht,Netherlandds:Kluver Academic,1998:41-54.
[30] SASEENDRAN S A,AHUJA L R,MA L,et al. Current water deficit stress simulations in selected agricultural system models[M]∥AHUJA L R,REDDY V R,SASEENDRAN S A,et al. Response of crops to limited water:understanding and modeling water stress effects on plant growth processes. Fort Collins:Colorado,2008:1-38.
[31] MCCOWN R L,HAMMER G L,HARGREAVES J N G,et al. APSIM:a novel software system for model development,model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research[J]. Agricultural Systems,1996,50(3):255-271.
[32]刘布春,王石立,马玉平.国外作物模型区域应用研究进展[J].气象科技,2002,30(4):193-203.LIU Buchun,WANG Shili,MA Yuping. Advances in regional application of crop models abroad[J]. Meterological Science and Technology,2002,30(4):193-203.(in Chinese)
[33] PROBERT M E,DIMES J P,KEATING B A,et al. APSIM's water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems[J]. Agricultural Systems,1998,56(1):1-28.
[34] VERBURG K,ROSS P J,BRISTOW K L. SWIMv2. 1 user manual[M]. Canberra,Australia:CSIRO Division of Soils,1996.
[35] ANGSTROM A. Solar and terrestrial radiation. Report to the international commission for solar research on actinometric investigations of solar and atmospheric radition[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,2007,50(210):121-126.
[36] XIONG W,HOLMAN I,CONWAY D,et al. A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies[J].Ecological Modelling,2008,213(3):365-380.
[37] HE J,JONES J W,GRAHAM W D,et al. Influence of likelihood function choice for estimating crop model parameters using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method[J]. Agricultural Systems,2010,103(5):256-264.
[38] SASEENDRAN S A,NIELSEN D C,MA L,et al. Adapting CROPGRO for simulating spring canola growth with both RZWQM2 and DSSAT 4. 0[J]. Agronomy Journal,2010,102(6):1606-1621.
[39] WANG S,WANG E,WANG F,et al. Phenological development and grain yield of canola as affected by sowing date and climate variation in the Yangtze River Basin of China[J]. Crop and Pasture Science,2012,63(5):478-488.
[40] HABEKOTTE B. A model of the phenological development of winter oilseed rape(Brassica napus L.)[J]. Field Crops Research,1997,54(2-3):127-136.
[41]官春云.优质油菜生理生态和现代栽培技术[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2013.
[42] DOMINIQUE D,PIERRE R. Impact of drought stress on the phenology of two soybean(Glycine max L. Merr)cultivars[J].Field Crops Research,1996,46(1-3):61-70.
[43]马玉平,孙琳丽,马晓群.黄淮海地区夏玉米对干旱和涝渍的生理生态反应[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(4):85-93.MA Yuping,SUN Linli,MA Xiaoqun. Ecophysiological responses of summer maize to drought and waterlogging in HuangHuai-Hai plain[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2016,34(4):85-93.(in Chinese)
[44]姚宁,周元刚,宋利兵,等.不同水分胁迫条件下DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型的调参与验证[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(12):138-150.YAO Ning,ZHOU Yuangang,SONG Libing,et al. Parameter estimation and verification of DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model for simulation of growth and development of winter wheat under water stresses at different growth stages[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2015,31(12):138-150.(in Chinese)