影响我国养老服务业发展的关键因素辨识
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摘要
加速发展养老服务业是我国积极应对人口老龄化的重要举措。然而,目前针对养老服务业影响因素的分析、识别与遴选方面的研究仍停留在定性分析层面,研究结果缺乏整体性与系统性。基于定性认知与定量分析相结合的视角,在融合区间二型模糊集理论(IT2F)与决策试行与评价实验室(DEMATEL)理论的基础上提出一种影响我国养老服务业发展关键因素的辨识方法。通过从政治、经济、认知、环境和保障五个层面对影响我国养老服务业发展的因素进行识别与分析,得出影响养老服务业发展的关键因素为经营理念、社会文化、市场需求和专业人才。
Accelerating the development of pension service industry is an important measure to actively cope with the population aging in China. However, the current researches on the factors affecting the pension service industry, including the analysis, recognition and selection, are still remain in the qualitative analysis level. It makes the research results short of holistic and systematic. Then, a new method to identify the key factors in the development of pension service industry is suggested by applying the interval type-2 fuzzy set(IT2 F) and the decision-making and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL), which adopt the methodology of combining qualitative cognizance with quantitative analysis. By the identification and analysis of the factors affecting the development of the pension service industry in the political, economic, cognitive, environmental and security aspects, the key factors influencing the development of China's pension service industry could be identified as follows: business concept, social culture, market demand and related talents.
Accelerating the development of pension service industry is an important measure to actively cope with the population aging in China. However, the current researches on the factors affecting the pension service industry, including the analysis, recognition and selection, are still remain in the qualitative analysis level. It makes the research results short of holistic and systematic. Then, a new method to identify the key factors in the development of pension service industry is suggested by applying the interval type-2 fuzzy set(IT2 F) and the decision-making and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL), which adopt the methodology of combining qualitative cognizance with quantitative analysis. By the identification and analysis of the factors affecting the development of the pension service industry in the political, economic, cognitive, environmental and security aspects, the key factors influencing the development of China's pension service industry could be identified as follows: business concept, social culture, market demand and related talents.
引文
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[3]MARUTHAPPU M,HASAN A,ZELTNER T.Enablers and barriers in implementing integrated care[J].Health Systems & Reform,2015,1(4).
[4]倪东生,张艳芳.养老服务供求失衡背景下中国政府购买养老服务政策研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2015,(11).
[5]ZHANG C,ZHU R,LV J,et al.Health promoting lifestyles and influencing factors among empty nesters and non-empty nesters in Taiyuan,China:a cross-sectional study[J].Health Qual Life Outcomes,2018,16(1).
[6]耿永志.养老服务业发展研究:目标、差距及影响因素[J].湖南社会科学,2013,(3).
[7]李欣.我国养老服务业的经济效应及发展路径研究[D].西安:西北大学,2016.
[8]王琼.城市社区居家养老服务需求及其影响因素——基于全国性的城市老年人口调查数据[J].人口研究,2016,40(1).
[9]晏月平,廖爱娣.云南人口老龄化特征及养老服务体系建设探讨[J].重庆科技学院学报(社会科学版),2015,(7).
[10]辜胜阻,吴华君,曹冬梅.构建科学合理养老服务体系的战略思考与建议[J].人口研究,2017,41(1).
[11]田北海,王彩云.城乡老年人社会养老服务需求特征及其影响因素——基于对家庭养老替代机制的分析[J].中国农村观察,2014,(4).
[12]陶涛,丛聪.老年人养老方式选择的影响因素分析——以北京市西城区为例[J].人口与经济,2014,(3).
[13]钟怡.云南省发展养老服务业的政策研究[D].昆明:云南大学,2016.
[14]MENDEL J M,JOHN R I,LIU F.Interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems made simple[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2006,14(6).
[15]WANG Z,MATHIYAZHAGAN K,XU L,et al.A decision making trial and evaluation laboratory approach to analyze the barriers to green supply chain management adoption in a food packaging company[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,117.
[16]GUPTA H,BARUA M K.A grey DEMATEL-based approach for modeling enablers of green innovation in manufacturing organizations[J].Environmental Science & Pollution Research,2018,25(10).
[17]ABDEL-BASSET M,MANOGARAN G,GAMAL A,et al.A hybrid approach of neutrosophic sets and DEMATEL method for developing supplier selection criteria[J].Design Automation for Embedded Systems,2018,22(4).
[18]ABDULLAH L,ZULKIFLI N.Integration of fuzzy AHP and interval type-2 fuzzy DEMATEL:An application to human resource management[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2015,42(9).
[19]WU K J,LIAO C J,TSENG M L,et al.Exploring decisive factors in green supply chain practices under uncertainty[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2015,159.