两次人口红利与消费不足——基于动态优化模型的实证分析
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摘要
文章通过动态优化模型进行了数理分析,并利用1989-2017年的面板数据模型进行了检验。研究发现:预期寿命的增加会显著降低居民消费率,少儿抚养比的降低抑制了居民消费率的增加,而老年抚养比的增加同样抑制了居民消费,运用面板Var模型发现少儿抚养比对消费率具有先促进后抑制的效应;而老年抚养比与消费率的关系则呈现先抑制后促进的演化过程。文章基于两次人口红利的视角分析消费不足的原因,为我国经济政策的制定提供启示。
This paper makes a mathematical analysis through the dynamic optimization model,and the panel data model of 1989-2017 is tested. The study found that the increase of life expectancy will significantly reduce the consumption rate of residents,the decrease of child dependency ratio inhibits the increase of consumption rate,while the increase of elderly dependency ratio also inhibits the consumption of residents. Using panel Var model,we found that child dependency ratio has the effect of first promoting and then inhibiting consumption rate;while the relationship between elderly dependency ratio and consumption rate shows the evolution of first inhibiting and then promoting. This paper uses the perspective of two demographic dividends to analyze the causes of under consumption, which provides some enlightments for the formulation of China's population economic policy.
This paper makes a mathematical analysis through the dynamic optimization model,and the panel data model of 1989-2017 is tested. The study found that the increase of life expectancy will significantly reduce the consumption rate of residents,the decrease of child dependency ratio inhibits the increase of consumption rate,while the increase of elderly dependency ratio also inhibits the consumption of residents. Using panel Var model,we found that child dependency ratio has the effect of first promoting and then inhibiting consumption rate;while the relationship between elderly dependency ratio and consumption rate shows the evolution of first inhibiting and then promoting. This paper uses the perspective of two demographic dividends to analyze the causes of under consumption, which provides some enlightments for the formulation of China's population economic policy.
引文
[1]BLOOM D E,WILLIAMSON J G.Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia[J].NBER Working Papers,1997,12(3):419-455.
[2]MASON A,LEE R.Transfers,capital,and consumption over the demographic transition[C]//CLARK R,OGAWA N,MA-SON A.Population aging,intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy,2007.
[3]贺菊煌.经济增长模型中的储蓄率内生化问题[J].经济研究,2005(8):54-59.
[4]PARK D,RHEE C.Saving,growth,and demographic change in Korea[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2005,19(3):394,413.
[5]CAVALLO E,SáNCHEZ G,VALENZUELA P.Gone with the wind:Demographic transitions and domestic saving[J].Review of Development Economics,2018,22(4):1744-1764.
[6]郑长德.中国各地区人口结构与储蓄率关系的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2007(6):1-4,11.
[7]范叙春,朱保华.预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率[J].人口研究,2012,36(4):18-28.
[8]张志远,张铭洪.法定退休制下受教育年限、预期寿命与储蓄率的关系--兼论延迟退休对居民储蓄率的影响[J].当代财经,2016(12):44-54.
[9]耿志祥,孙祁祥.人口老龄化、延迟退休与二次人口红利[J].金融研究,2017(1):52-68.
[10]王颖,邓博文.老龄化国家人口转变与人口红利再生--基于18个老龄化国家的经验证据[J].财经科学,2017(8):67-77.
[11]蔡兴.预期寿命、养老保险发展与中国居民消费[J].经济评论,2015(6):81-91,107.
[12]李斌,吴书胜.人口年龄结构、预期寿命与居民消费率--基于省际动态面板系统GMM的检验[J].中南大学学报:社会科学版,2015,21(2):109-117.
[13]李秀芳,黄志国,陈孝伟.全面二孩政策能够解决人口老龄化困境吗?--统账结合制养老保障制度下的OLG分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2017(12):73-82.
[14]MODIGLIANI F,BRUMBERG R.Utility analysis and the consumption function:An interpretation of cross-section data[J].Franco Modigliani,1954(1):388-436.
[15]SAMUELSON P A.An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money[J].Journal of political economy,1958,66(6):467-482.
[16]NEHER P A.Peasants,procreation,and pensions[J].The American economic review,1971,61(3):380-389.
[17]SCHROOTEN M,STEPHAN S.Private savings and transition[J].Economics of Transition,2005,13(2):287-309.
[18]朱勤,魏涛远.中国城乡居民年龄别消费模式量化与分析[J].人口研究,2015,39(3):3-17.
[19]CURTIS C C,LUGAUER S,MARK N C.Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan,China,and India[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2017,51:175-191.
[20]李魁,钟水映.劳动力抚养负担与居民消费率--基于人口红利期的动态面板实证研究[J].经济评论,2010(6):105-112.
[21]王欢,黄健元.中国人口年龄结构与城乡居民消费关系的实证分析[J].人口与经济,2015(2):11-20.
[22]李文星,徐长生,艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费:1989-2004[J].经济研究,2008(7):118-129.
[23]刘铠豪.人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异研究--来自中国省级面板数据的证据[J].人口研究,2016,40(2):98-112.
[24]刘生龙,周绍杰.中国为什么难以启动内需--基于省级动态面板数据模型的实证检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011,28(9):90-102.
[25]胡英.中国分城镇乡村人口平均预期寿命探析[J].人口与发展,2010,16(2):41-47.
[26]LOVE I,ZICCHINO L.Financial development and dynamic investment behavior:Evidence from panel VAR[J].The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(2):190-210.
(1)由于面板Var模型的矩阵限制,方程中最多放入6个变量,因此本文选取最为核心的变量作为控制变量。
(2)由于重庆1997年前的数据缺失,而西藏部分数据缺失,台湾数据缺失,因此将三者剔除。
[2]MASON A,LEE R.Transfers,capital,and consumption over the demographic transition[C]//CLARK R,OGAWA N,MA-SON A.Population aging,intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy,2007.
[3]贺菊煌.经济增长模型中的储蓄率内生化问题[J].经济研究,2005(8):54-59.
[4]PARK D,RHEE C.Saving,growth,and demographic change in Korea[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2005,19(3):394,413.
[5]CAVALLO E,SáNCHEZ G,VALENZUELA P.Gone with the wind:Demographic transitions and domestic saving[J].Review of Development Economics,2018,22(4):1744-1764.
[6]郑长德.中国各地区人口结构与储蓄率关系的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2007(6):1-4,11.
[7]范叙春,朱保华.预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率[J].人口研究,2012,36(4):18-28.
[8]张志远,张铭洪.法定退休制下受教育年限、预期寿命与储蓄率的关系--兼论延迟退休对居民储蓄率的影响[J].当代财经,2016(12):44-54.
[9]耿志祥,孙祁祥.人口老龄化、延迟退休与二次人口红利[J].金融研究,2017(1):52-68.
[10]王颖,邓博文.老龄化国家人口转变与人口红利再生--基于18个老龄化国家的经验证据[J].财经科学,2017(8):67-77.
[11]蔡兴.预期寿命、养老保险发展与中国居民消费[J].经济评论,2015(6):81-91,107.
[12]李斌,吴书胜.人口年龄结构、预期寿命与居民消费率--基于省际动态面板系统GMM的检验[J].中南大学学报:社会科学版,2015,21(2):109-117.
[13]李秀芳,黄志国,陈孝伟.全面二孩政策能够解决人口老龄化困境吗?--统账结合制养老保障制度下的OLG分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2017(12):73-82.
[14]MODIGLIANI F,BRUMBERG R.Utility analysis and the consumption function:An interpretation of cross-section data[J].Franco Modigliani,1954(1):388-436.
[15]SAMUELSON P A.An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money[J].Journal of political economy,1958,66(6):467-482.
[16]NEHER P A.Peasants,procreation,and pensions[J].The American economic review,1971,61(3):380-389.
[17]SCHROOTEN M,STEPHAN S.Private savings and transition[J].Economics of Transition,2005,13(2):287-309.
[18]朱勤,魏涛远.中国城乡居民年龄别消费模式量化与分析[J].人口研究,2015,39(3):3-17.
[19]CURTIS C C,LUGAUER S,MARK N C.Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan,China,and India[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2017,51:175-191.
[20]李魁,钟水映.劳动力抚养负担与居民消费率--基于人口红利期的动态面板实证研究[J].经济评论,2010(6):105-112.
[21]王欢,黄健元.中国人口年龄结构与城乡居民消费关系的实证分析[J].人口与经济,2015(2):11-20.
[22]李文星,徐长生,艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费:1989-2004[J].经济研究,2008(7):118-129.
[23]刘铠豪.人口年龄结构变化影响城乡居民消费率的效应差异研究--来自中国省级面板数据的证据[J].人口研究,2016,40(2):98-112.
[24]刘生龙,周绍杰.中国为什么难以启动内需--基于省级动态面板数据模型的实证检验[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011,28(9):90-102.
[25]胡英.中国分城镇乡村人口平均预期寿命探析[J].人口与发展,2010,16(2):41-47.
[26]LOVE I,ZICCHINO L.Financial development and dynamic investment behavior:Evidence from panel VAR[J].The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2006,46(2):190-210.
(1)由于面板Var模型的矩阵限制,方程中最多放入6个变量,因此本文选取最为核心的变量作为控制变量。
(2)由于重庆1997年前的数据缺失,而西藏部分数据缺失,台湾数据缺失,因此将三者剔除。